View Full Version : Lets's play devil's advocate
southfork
01-24-2011, 09:32 PM
Silver nose dives to 20 bucks again, you can get both .999 and 90% at melt, which do you choose? An interesting conversation with a dealer at a show on saturday, he told me he had a friend whom works for Silvertowne and that they had been melting 90% at the rate of 200 1k bags daily for the longest time,are many doing this? This being so will it result in the next 3 years or so in large increases in numisatic values of the common 90% currency? My thought is possibly so as more seem to be entering the collecting arena, so would you buy all 90, all 999 or half and half or wait for $9 dollar silver again which I dont see.
Silver nose dives to 20 bucks again, you can get both .999 and 90% at melt, which do you choose? An interesting conversation with a dealer at a show on saturday, he told me he had a friend whom works for Silvertowne and that they had been melting 90% at the rate of 200 1k bags daily for the longest time,are many doing this? This being so will it result in the next 3 years or so in large increases in numisatic values of the common 90% currency? My thought is possibly so as more seem to be entering the collecting arena, so would you buy all 90, all 999 or half and half or wait for $9 dollar silver again which I dont see.
All 999. A lot of new people (like me) getting into this. Today's younger generations prefer clean, shiny, and new. I figure it will be easier to sell. Also, don't have to bother explaining the benefits of junk silver to this crowd.
Gcubed
01-24-2011, 09:42 PM
How much silver do you have if you fill up every one of those blue folders? How many "key" dates are in a folder? Guess why 90% is termed "junk" industry wide. Buy the pure stuff. You wont pay for refining when you eventually sell.
AuNuggets
01-25-2011, 01:51 PM
I've watched 90% vs. 999 for alot of years. You can normally get into 90% junk at a lower per-ounce cost than 999, but as others note, you may have refining costs on the sell side. But 90% tends to have a "stand-alone" market that rarely detracts for refining. On the other hand, when things go parabolic, 90% premiums tend to rise exponentially, even in relation to 999. Reason being, to some anyway, is the trade factor in a SHTF scenario. Year-end 1999 or so, on worries of Y2K and the end of the world, 90% premiums were in the neighborhood of 40% in some areas. When markets heat up to the max, assay costs for 999 can be just as worrisome in many cases as refining costs for "junk". Never seen anyone ask for an assay on junk silver. Just something else to take into consideration.
Silver Buck
01-25-2011, 02:18 PM
I can't buy both but have to choose one?
Well, I guess it would depend...
Why and how fast did the drop happen?
What kind of fine silver is available (generic vs SAE)?
If it was a casual drop and everything else is basically the same, I'd go with the bullion (especially if they were SAEs at generic premium). If the world is seemingly going down the crapper, I'd go with the junk unless those SAEs were available (or possibly Kooks, Maples, Libertads, Prospectors).
I have enough Silver bullion now, I really don't need to stock up much more, but if it is on sale...
917601
01-25-2011, 03:22 PM
If history is a guide-.999 much more desired than junk silver.Long talks with a lifetime refiner and Coin Dealer taught me much about the "Great Melt". During the "Great Silver Melt" , a record 94 million oz of silver coinage was melted by the refiners-.999 is already refined.The refiners had huge backlogs melting silverware and junk coinage to satisfy industry demand.The only advantage to junk is it's small size-dime to halves-divisiblity,great for the "survivalist", but "investors" number one choice by far are 10 and 100 oz bars. Best to have both-but should you be convinced of "mad Max" junk is fine.Keep in mind, should one need to sell off a large amount, 10 and 100 oz bars the way to go.(SAE's my choice).
gold miser
01-25-2011, 03:41 PM
I would go with the .999 I have a load of junk on my hands if the s#!t does hit the fan! I would rather have SAE's
silverblood
01-25-2011, 04:21 PM
I have enough 90% junk and small rounds to get me started in a Mad Max world, should it come to that. I'm not buying any more 90%, but I still pick up 1 oz .999 when the price is right. Mainly I focus on 10 and 100 oz bars due to the storage convenience of those form factors and the low premiums. It all melts the same.
minimus
01-25-2011, 08:30 PM
"Junk" silver needs no assay test ... end of debate.
Irons
01-25-2011, 08:41 PM
I sold a lot of silver on ebay a while back, both 999 and junk dimes all in straight no reserve auctions . The junk dimes got more looks, more bids and went for well over what I was expecting to get.
The 999 went for what I was expecting to get. Next time I silver up it will be bags of dimes.
pay dirt
01-25-2011, 08:49 PM
Silver dollars are always popular. Ask any Joe 6 pak the difference of a silver dollar than the 1 dollar SAE most wouldnt know. They are government currency that they are not making millions of anymore like the SAE and cheaper. Silver takes a dive off a cliff they still might have some future numi value.
curmudgeonista
01-25-2011, 09:32 PM
With a drop like that I'd grab whatever I could get the best deal on, which might be easier said than done. Physical plays by different rules than paper. Seems to me, lately when paper markets drop, interest in physical tends to ramp up, resulting in short supply and high premiums.
If you polled GIM, how many would be selling at $20 and how many would be buying? I believe the overwhelming response would be "buying".
nergal
01-25-2011, 09:42 PM
I'm glad I don't have to make a choice. I prefer to look at nice .999 coins and rounds, but want the "junk" for its divisibility. If currency crashes what kind of change will you get for an ASE when purchasing a loaf of bread that might sell for a junk dime or quarter? .999 for investment purposes, junk for spending. BTW, I've need two Craigslist ads (one for a dirt bike, one for silver age comic books) where the sellers listed the prices in 90% silver coinage, both reasonable to be expected amounts. Never seen that before. Is this a new thing?
AuNuggets
01-25-2011, 09:48 PM
I'm glad I don't have to make a choice. I prefer to look at nice .999 coins and rounds, but want the "junk" for its divisibility. If currency crashes what kind of change will you get for an ASE when purchasing a loaf of bread that might sell for a junk dime or quarter? .999 for investment purposes, junk for spending. BTW, I've need two Craigslist ads (one for a dirt bike, one for silver age comic books) where the sellers listed the prices in 90% silver coinage, both reasonable to be expected amounts. Never seen that before. Is this a new thing?
Not sure how old you are, but many of us can remember the pricing of "things" in terms of silver coins back in the metals heyday of the late 70s to early 1980. It was nothing unusual at all to see gas stations advertising prices for gas in "silver coin" right along side the normal "cash" price. There were even grocery stores, liquor stores, and other retailers who posted exchange rates between silver coin and nominal "cash". Seemed everyone was trying to play that game back then. Others of us were quietly buying and searching rolls of half dollars from the local banks for any sign of silver. Dimes and quarters had long been removed from circulation for the most part by then, but halves, especially so the 40 percent silver ones, lingered well into the 80s in many areas. We collected several 1000 face bags of 40% silver clads, and a respectable amount of 90% just buying and searching half rolls. Aaaah, the good old days...........
nergal
01-25-2011, 10:05 PM
Not sure how old you are, but many of us can remember the pricing of "things" in terms of silver coins back in the metals heyday of the late 70s to early 1980. It was nothing unusual at all to see gas stations advertising prices for gas in "silver coin" right along side the normal "cash" price. There were even grocery stores, liquor stores, and other retailers who posted exchange rates between silver coin and nominal "cash". Seemed everyone was trying to play that game back then. Others of us were quietly buying and searching rolls of half dollars from the local banks for any sign of silver. Dimes and quarters had long been removed from circulation for the most part by then, but halves, especially so the 40 percent silver ones, lingered well into the 80s in many areas. We collected several 1000 face bags of 40% silver clads, and a respectable amount of 90% just buying and searching half rolls. Aaaah, the good old days...........
Plenty old enough to remember but I don't remember that. . . . . Might be because I spent most of my spare time drinking and smoking weed from 1968 to 1991, kinda lost years. Wish I'd been smart enough to "prospect" in those days. . . .
NotTheOne
01-25-2011, 10:20 PM
.999
*back up the truck*
HistoryStudent
01-25-2011, 11:21 PM
Plenty old enough to remember but I don't remember that. . . . . Might be because I spent most of my spare time drinking and smoking weed from 1968 to 1001, kinda lost years. Wish I'd been smart enough to "prospect" in those days. . . .
Glad you woke up to smell the scent of real money...
Not the stuff going up in smoke... shall we say, right?
AuNuggets
01-26-2011, 02:26 AM
Gas for silver ............
Might be because I spent most of my spare time drinking and smoking weed from 1968 to 1001, kinda lost years.
With an Avatar of Fat Freddie, who would have guessed that?
"Dope will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no dope."
gold miser
01-26-2011, 09:19 AM
Not sure how old you are, but many of us can remember the pricing of "things" in terms of silver coins back in the metals heyday of the late 70s to early 1980. It was nothing unusual at all to see gas stations advertising prices for gas in "silver coin" right along side the normal "cash" price. There were even grocery stores, liquor stores, and other retailers who posted exchange rates between silver coin and nominal "cash". Seemed everyone was trying to play that game back then. Others of us were quietly buying and searching rolls of half dollars from the local banks for any sign of silver. Dimes and quarters had long been removed from circulation for the most part by then, but halves, especially so the 40 percent silver ones, lingered well into the 80s in many areas. We collected several 1000 face bags of 40% silver clads, and a respectable amount of 90% just buying and searching half rolls. Aaaah, the good old days...........
yes i remember thoes days well, I still have junk from thoes days looking for silver at the little general store I work at when I was in high school in '76. also freaking out on the bi centennial quarters that I still have several rolls of.
Ragnarok
02-03-2011, 10:32 AM
Given the choice, I would always buy 999 over 90% at silver melt. Pure metal is always more useful and valuable than an alloy imo.
2c, R.
SilverFish
02-03-2011, 10:44 AM
If a s#*t hits the fan scenario ever really plays out hardcore, numismatic values wont count for as much as they do when the economy is relatively good like it is now. So I guess it depends on what you think is going to happen. If things are really that bad, people dont have the luxury to be able to mess with historical importance of an item, wether its coins, baseball cards, antiques etc etc. If you think things will be all peachy in the future, go with "junk" with some historical value. If you think things are gonna suck for the economy, get youself into .999.
Im going with .999
curmudgeonista
02-03-2011, 11:44 AM
If a s#*t hits the fan scenario ever really plays out hardcore, numismatic values wont count for as much as they do when the economy is relatively good like it is now. So I guess it depends on what you think is going to happen. If things are really that bad, people dont have the luxury to be able to mess with historical importance of an item, wether its coins, baseball cards, antiques etc etc. If you think things will be all peachy in the future, go with "junk" with some historical value. If you think things are gonna suck for the economy, get youself into .999.
Im going with .999
I guess you have to consider some items like "junk" Morgan silver dollars carrying an extra premium for historical interest, but most 90% junk is bought and sold for the silver alone. I know obsolete designs like Walkers and Mercs sell for a bit more than comparable coins with the same design as clad. However, I've always thought of that little extra cost as simply representing ease of identification.
I like .999 and 90% both. Will continue to buy and hold both.
It's the true numismatics that will fall when times get tough(er). I'd expect junk 90% to hold a pretty steady market, as should .999. In extreme circumstances, I believe 90% will be favored over generic .999 because of added assurance. It's not that there is no risk of fraud, but it certainly seems reduced with gov't issue, whether that be 90% coinage or gov't bullion. Well known brand name "generic" like Englehard and JM comes next... same as now, but I'd expect differences to become more exaggerated as prices rise, and especially in a SHTF environment.
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