ATB 'P' Mint Mark Coin Thread

[HistoryStudent]

I disagree that the 2011 P will be available through most of 2012. The reason behind my thinking is this:


Travel back in time to late 2010. You work at the Mint, new product coming out and you don't know how many people are going to want this. You can't make any more after December 31st, 2010 so you start up the presses and make the maximum allowed since brand new products sell out and this is a new size and new product line. It has to sell!

Come back to the present. You work at the Mint, you look at the past year's sales numbers and know that if you do the same thing over again today, you may be sitting on them for years, pay for warehouse space and end up having to melt quite a few which will cost you more money. You say let's only produce 1/2 of the maximum allowed.


This is what I think happened with the MS Mary Todd Lincoln coin last year. I thought that with it being one of the more well-known spouses that they were going to produce the maximum allowed, but they didn't come close. I regret only getting the PF version at the time.

As you know we are NOT a FLY on the wall paper listening to management mint decisions so...

I'm really into supply and demand basics 101.

The mint uses supply many ways:

1) actual metal they need.
2) the sales they expect and they do not expect too many sales because of what has happened to ATB demand.
3) the supply they would like to melt to have more for something else.
4) the supply for the 2011 ASE eagles bullion have now broken all records.
5) the lowest silver supply ever on the crimex.
6) and all the games the controllers and manipulators play.
7) remember silver is probably the Achilles Heal for PMs - they first THING they did in 1870s was
to KILL silver around the world because gold is easier to control.

[HistoryStudent]

I disagree that the 2011 P will be available through most of 2012. The reason behind my thinking is this:


Travel back in time to late 2010. You work at the Mint, new product coming out and you don't know how many people are going to want this. You can't make any more after December 31st, 2010 so you start up the presses and make the maximum allowed since brand new products sell out and this is a new size and new product line. It has to sell!

Come back to the present. You work at the Mint, you look at the past year's sales numbers and know that if you do the same thing over again today, you may be sitting on them for years, pay for warehouse space and end up having to melt quite a few which will cost you more money. You say let's only produce 1/2 of the maximum allowed.


This is what I think happened with the MS Mary Todd Lincoln coin last year. I thought that with it being one of the more well-known spouses that they were going to produce the maximum allowed, but they didn't come close. I regret only getting the PF version at the time.

As you know we are NOT a FLY on the wall paper listening to management mint decisions so...

I'm really into supply and demand basics 101.

The mint uses supply many ways:

1) actual metal they need.
2) the sales they expect and they do not expect too many sales because of what has happened to demand.
3) the supply the would like to melt to have more for something else.
4) the supply for the 2011 ASE eagles bullion have now broken all records.
5) the lowest silver supply ever on the crimex.
6) and all the games the controllers and manipulators play.
7) remember silver is probably the Achilles Heal for PMs - they first they did in 1870s was
to KILL silver around the world because gold is easier to control.


06 December 2011
Intraday: Today's Gold/Silver Cross Trade Between Bullion and Miners Seemed Particularly Blatant


Here is a message to some trading friends this morning with gold around support at 1710.

They normally hit the miners hard before a smackdown in gold and silver. They did this on Friday. But today we saw the opposite happening, at least this morning. Earlier I had sent out a message saying, 'I think the bottom is in.'

Denver Dave and I had come to the same conclusion after some email exchanges and a search of the news.

See Hecla?
They are buying the miners while smacking down bullion.
And now it reverses.
I bought it pretty hard bullion and some miners.
I hedged the stocks with index shorts keyed on the SP.


They started buying some of the miners, especially some of the silver miners, in numbers and aggressively even while they were still smacking down gold and silver spot prices to the lows.

Those lows were an almost perfect hit on the accumulation-distribution trend on my chart.

I think this type of price action gives them the opportunity to buy some decent positions in the higher beta miners without trading against themselves in the market. The negative bullion price action keeps most of the public buyers on the sidelines.

It is not illegal to buy one thing and sell another. I am running long bullion/miners and short the SP at the same time.

But it is not allowed to manipulate prices in commodities on the futures markets to game the stocks. And today's action in the precious metals futures was especially heavy handed in smacking price and running stops. Is anyone trading the futures markets anymore except for insiders? Probably not so many directly, but through things like ETFs and some funds, perhaps more than they realize.

I am not sure we are out of this nonsense yet because of so many guys standing for delivery this month, and the negotiations that are always going on in cash to buy out the longs w/o taking delivery.

But these sorts of moves tend to set up bigger moves higher. Barring the disintegration of Europe in the short term of course.

Speaking of heavy handed, is Standard and Poors working off some sort of community service sentence? Do they have to wear orange jumpsuits while issuing negative statements and downgrades on foreign sovereign debt in high coincidence with US policy measures?

The pressure they are putting on the Europeans to back up Timmy's policy advice (thinly veiled directives) to them is a bit much. I understand the advice is to cut their rate 50 bp or more tout de suite to stop making Ben look bad and smooth the way for the US QE3 without knocking the dollar off its pedestal. And of course they must act to bail out the TBTF banks.

Is Tim going to be appointed financial Viceroy of Europe by the Banks? Would that be an IMF or Treasury title?

One can only look on in wonder these days.

P.S. I have had no position in Hecla today at all. I watch it and a few others as bellwethers.

[HistoryStudent]

I bought the last two from MCM; they have all kinds of caveats and they are not encapsulated, but mine arrived pretty much perfect.

:hahaha:I like them slabbed so if if does not work out the way I plan I can always use them as a plate to eat
CROW and RAVENS.

Black Bird Polish Goulash.

YUK! :redface:


******************************************

Silver well set up for another tilt at $50 and much higher

By: Peter Cooper



-- Posted 6 December, 2011 | Share this article | Discuss This Article - Comments: 0

When the IMF brought out its big guns to support the global banking system last week the tiny silver market was all but forgotten. We doubt it will be quiet for much longer.

Silver is a monetary metal. One Roman denarius sells for about $70 these days. You can still pick them up in the antiques centre here in Salisbury.

IMF union

Central banks of the world unite under the banner of the IMF and when it comes to governments and central banks it is hard to see whether the tail is wagging the dog or vice versa.

Marc Faber wrote almost a decade ago about the inevitability of money printing by central banks in his apocryphal book ‘Tomorrow’s Gold’ (and silver perhaps). He pointed out that it is all these institutions can do to meet any crisis, so they will always do it in the end.

Well that process has now happened. But you have to be very careful as an investor in an environment of monetary inflation. Price levels can be awfully deceptive.

The price of a cup of British Rail tea is now 7.5 times what it was in 1980 while silver still sells for less than it did that year. On the other hand, it is ten times more expensive than when Marc Faber wrote his book.

So silver has offered some of the best inflation protection in the past decade, although it was completely useless in this regard for the previous 20 years. What happens going forward?

We can see no reason for silver prices to stop inflating right at this point. On the contrary the same monetary expansion of the past decade is only gaining pace.

Central bank support

You would need to see the central banks jacking up interest rates to control inflation to get a fundamental sell signal for silver. It is just not happening and all we are seeing is silver price volatility in a rising market. Do not be deceived by that.

Yes there could well be another price dip but from what price level? Will silver shoot to $50 again as it did in April? Of course, the fundamentals are tremendous with the IMF leading the money printers.

The biggest risk is being out of this market. For once other investors catch on then the supply of silver is so tight that a real price breakout will occur and from there the price will go as high as speculators can make it go.

We still prefer silver above gold (click here) for the simple reason that silver does outperform in a precious metals boom. In the past three years we have seen the silver price triple while gold has only doubled, albeit silver is currently only double and therefore an even better buy!

[HistoryStudent]

Talk about a CADDYSHACK "Baby Ruth" in the silver pool with the sharks.

************************************************** ****************

US Mint Sales: Gold and Silver Products Debut
December 6, 2011 By Michael Zielinski Leave a Comment

In the latest weekly report of the United States Mint’s numismatic product sales, recently released gold, silver, and clad products make their first appearance. Annual sets continue to experience strong sales, and commemorative coins saw a boost.

The 2011-P Olympic National Park Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins went on sale November 29, 2011. This product represented the eighth numismatic release for the series. The earliest releases were greeted enthusiastically by collectors, but the excitement has since faded. The latest release sold 8,662 units during the debut period, representing the slowest start so far.


****************************************


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh...

don't tell a soul keep it under your hat this is the third in the 2011 P series 5 oz pucks.

REMEMBER the MINT has to make a profit or these are scrapped like the kitty litter or the dog poop.


******************************************


I sorry for posting so much in a row herein.

I just suspect these will really be SOMETHING down the road - especially the SP69s & SP70s.

Buy LOW sell high.

[Oldmansmith]

Thanks HS, didn't even know the Olympic was available, must be the baby keeping me up all night and all.

Just bought one.

[npd1078]

Can some one explain the difference between the bullion version on the P version for the 2011 coins? I know there were 2 types last year one from the mint and the other from the 5 or so dealers. Did they do that in 2011 as well?
Thank you,

[HistoryStudent]

In 2010 they issued around 33K in bullion each coin - no hallmark shiny

and 27K in satin finish with a "P" UNC coin for each coin.

In 2011 they issued around 126K in bullion each coin - no hallmark shiny

and 27K in satin finish with "P" UNC for each coin - until the last 2 which died IN MINTAGE check for yourself.

[pay dirt]

Things are slowing way down. Doubt if these make the 35000 limit. Once again HS is on the money. Personally I like the shiny ones better than the satin finish, but people will probably pay more for a more rare letter P than shiny in years to come.

The ATB coin sets are getting no love when the 2011 Anniversary set is stealing the show.


http://www.silvercoinstoday.com/olympic-5-ounce-silver-uncirculated-coin-sales-begin-at-8662/105303/

[npd1078]

OK, thank you guys. So my next question is where and who sold/are selling the P coins? What i mean is I am guessing the coins that the Mint is selling are the bullion version and not the P version?
HS I have read that you like both coins long term? But it sounds like you are leaning towards the P coin as the way to go?

[SongSungAU]

OK, thank you guys. So my next question is where and who sold/are selling the P coins?


http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?langId=-1&storeId=10001&catalogId=10001&identifier=8305

[HistoryStudent]

OK, thank you guys. So my next question is where and who sold/are selling the P coins? What i mean is I am guessing the coins that the Mint is selling are the bullion version and not the P version?
HS I have read that you like both coins long term? But it sounds like you are leaning towards the P coin as the way to go?

Slabbed check Ebay and Moderncoinmart.com (especially when they run an ad I just bought 25 of them below $200 each)

I think you could easily trade a set of 2011 25ths RAW for a LOT of them perhaps a set of (5) 2010s bullion DMPL 68s - as the offer was even made herein somewhere.

Remember my guesstimate comes from the facts that:

1 these are the largest coin the us mint ever made and it has a value on it (Jordan's book)
2 the coins were really screwed with by the mint at first and that turned collectors off
3 they are 5 ounces of silver and I expect perhaps unreasonably to see prices upward of $300 oz.
4 the last big coins the mint made was 2 1/2 oz. gold coins in 1915 marked $50 check their value now
5 the are pretty & different coins of American places with common front = Washington
6 you can buy them reasonably if you are quick and dirty
7 they look to me to be sacrificed on the altar of discontinuance the way things are going in a year or so
8 the next five in 2012 LOOK great if they come out in 5 oz. both ways I hope
9 I like both sets in 2010 and 2011 so if your funds are limited go with the less mintage ones.
10 these are my sleeper PUCKERS for the TWO years just as my UHR was my 2009 guestimate.

Good luck leave a legacy my dear friends ~ HS


Be quick:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfRrEUz62Lw

[npd1078]

I understand now. Thank you both for clearing up the difference between the 2 versions for me. I did purchase the two versions last year. Guess its time to get a few from this year as well.

[badhop55]

It seems the 2010 bullion ATB set is STILL available at Bache. People don't want to jump through their hoops?

http://www.bache.com/view/page/bache/17373

[pedzola]

I just posted this in the snags thread... seems like a good deal! I haven't been following the ATB's at all but see a lot of talk on here about them. At this price they are a good deal on nice bullion to me. Let me know if anyone else decided to pick some up!

--->
I just got an ad from Apmex advertising this (slabbed ATB for $171)
http://www.apmex.com/Product/63050/.aspx?utm_source=ActOn&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=121011ban

But looking around I found this (2 slabbed ATBs for $325, or ~162/each):
http://www.apmex.com/Product/62541/2011_5_oz_Silver_Gettysburg_Glacier_Set_MS_69_PL_B etter_FS_PCGS.aspx

PCGS MS69-PL ATB's for basically spot price? Yes please. I don't have a huge budget but I picked up 2 of the 2-sets. (4 coins). Hope this is as good a deal as I think it is...
--->

[McBlzr]

I have one each "P" of the 2010's from the Mint. But since they relaxed the order limits, I am getting five each of the 2011's from the Mint :36_1_11:

[Milanion]

It seems the 2010 bullion ATB set is STILL available at Bache. People don't want to jump through their hoops?

http://www.bache.com/view/page/bache/17373

I started nov 10th, looking like I'll see the coins next year. They cashed my check on 11/25, just received more paperwork today on my account balance.

[npd1078]

Milanion,
I purchased my set from them last year during the busy time and it took about 3+ months for me to get them. It's a long process but in the end the price makes it worth it. I may even do it again since they still are saying there available...




I started nov 10th, looking like I'll see the coins next year. They cashed my check on 11/25, just received more paperwork today on my account balance.

[npd1078]

I saw this same thing yesterday. It's the reason I was asking the questions about the bullion and P series. Seems like a better deal long term (prices wise) then the P series. But I do like the P series limited numbers better. Still can't decide which way to go on the 2011's...

I just got an ad from Apmex advertising this (slabbed ATB for $171)
http://www.apmex.com/Product/63050/.aspx?utm_source=ActOn&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=121011ban

But looking around I found this (2 slabbed ATBs for $325, or ~162/each):
http://www.apmex.com/Product/62541/2011_5_oz_Silver_Gettysburg_Glacier_Set_MS_69_PL_B etter_FS_PCGS.aspx

PCGS MS69-PL ATB's for basically spot price? Yes please. I don't have a huge budget but I picked up 2 of the 2-sets. (4 coins). Hope this is as good a deal as I think it is...
--->[/QUOTE]

[Dude]

I just posted this in the snags thread... seems like a good deal! I haven't been following the ATB's at all but see a lot of talk on here about them. At this price they are a good deal on nice bullion to me. Let me know if anyone else decided to pick some up!

--->
I just got an ad from Apmex advertising this (slabbed ATB for $171)
http://www.apmex.com/Product/63050/.aspx?utm_source=ActOn&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=121011ban

But looking around I found this (2 slabbed ATBs for $325, or ~162/each):
http://www.apmex.com/Product/62541/2011_5_oz_Silver_Gettysburg_Glacier_Set_MS_69_PL_B etter_FS_PCGS.aspx

PCGS MS69-PL ATB's for basically spot price? Yes please. I don't have a huge budget but I picked up 2 of the 2-sets. (4 coins). Hope this is as good a deal as I think it is...
--->

There's no question. It's a great price.
Big coin show in Houston had very few and they were overpriced. Raw ones were over $200.

[HistoryStudent]

I saw this same thing yesterday. It's the reason I was asking the questions about the bullion and P series. Seems like a better deal long term (prices wise) then the P series. But I do like the P series limited numbers better. Still can't decide which way to go on the 2011's...

I just got an ad from Apmex advertising this (slabbed ATB for $171)
http://www.apmex.com/Product/63050/.aspx?utm_source=ActOn&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=121011ban

But looking around I found this (2 slabbed ATBs for $325, or ~162/each):
http://www.apmex.com/Product/62541/2011_5_oz_Silver_Gettysburg_Glacier_Set_MS_69_PL_B etter_FS_PCGS.aspx

PCGS MS69-PL ATB's for basically spot price? Yes please. I don't have a huge budget but I picked up 2 of the 2-sets. (4 coins). Hope this is as good a deal as I think it is...
--->[/QUOTE]


On the BULLION go cautious light little - see little shoot small.

On the "P"s if offered a similar deal - JUMP JUMP JUMP 27K in "P"s versus 130K in 2011 bullion ones.


But poopola these are dirt cheap at APMEX on bullion slabbed and graded too. They paid $300 plus each.

Never look a homemade CAKE in the mouth especially at spot and having all the frosting on top too. FS and all.


DEALS like these show me that they will be past history soon like a wife who is so bad you have to live on the roof.

When the wholesalers get BURNT and quit BUYING the mint stops the series because they'll lose money on them.


Also I do collect the silver quarters in proof slabbed so these KINDA match.

[graspAU]

On the BULLION go cautious light little - see little shoot small.

On the "P"s if offered a similar deal - JUMP JUMP JUMP 27K in "P"s versus 130K in 2011 bullion ones.

Why do you say 27k? Was that not for 2010? I thought 2011 was 35k for P's?

"The 2011 America the Beautiful Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coin – Olympic National Park - is limited to a total mintage of 35,000 coins"

http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10001&storeId=10001&productId=16436&langId=-1&parent_category_rn=48501

[southfork]

I bought the first 2010 Uncirculated from the mint for kicks, Im not paying over 50 an ounce for 32 buck silver

[badhop55]

Viewed simply as a bullion purchase this is a killer deal. $325.79 for 10oz of silver is $32.58/oz. Just a touch above spot. S&H is a flat $10 so with 5 sets bought that $10 gets divvied up resulting in $32.78/oz. The slab plus the 69PL is a couple cherries on top.

The future does not look bright for this program. I can't see the continuation of the P pucks. The production of these is not mandated by congress so it is a simply partial solution to ATB problem of too much product meeting diminishing demand.

As far as the bullion side goes I think one of the worst aspects of the program was starting out with Yosemite, Yellowstone and the Grand Canyon. Arguably these are the icons of the NP system. Mention these names anywhere in the country and the odds are they will be recognized. Then in 2011 Gettysburg and Glacier are produced and though not quite in the same league, from a NP standpoint, as the 3 just mentioned are still well known nationally.

Now what? For all intents and purposes, with a couple exceptions such as Rushmore, the big names are done. Yes, you'll have various local favorites but I'm sorry, Chickasaw just doesn't do it for me. At the very least you'll see the mintage for upcoming years drop way down to somewhere around 50,000 or less. If not ZERO.

Though I would like to see the Tuskegee Airmen version. A shame that's at the far end of the schedule.

I just don't see enough to interest me for the entire run.

[badhop55]

Here's another tidbit of info about the ATB bullion program that fits all the other wackiness of the situation (pulled from Public Law 110-456 pdf) Para 7B applies.

‘‘(7) PERIOD OF ISSUANCE.—
‘‘(A) IN GENERAL.—Subject to paragraph (2), the program
established under this subsection shall continue in
effect until a national site in each State has been honored.
‘‘(B) SECOND ROUND AT DISCRETION OF SECRETARY.—
‘‘(i) DETERMINATION.—The Secretary may make a
determination before the end of the 9-year period
beginning when the first quarter dollar is issued under
this subsection to continue the period of issuance until
a second national site in each State, the District of
Columbia, and each territory referred to in this subsection
has been honored with a design on a quarter
dollar.
‘‘(ii) NOTICE AND REPORT.—Within 30 days after
making a determination under clause (i), the Secretary
shall submit a written report on such determination
to the Committee on Financial Services of the House
of Representatives and the Committee on Banking,
Housing, and Urban Affairs of the Senate.
‘‘(iii) APPLICABILITY OF PROVISIONS.—If the Secretary
makes a determination under clause (i), the
provisions of this subsection applicable to site and
VerDate Aug 31 2005 11:47 Dec 30, 2008 Jkt 079139 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 6580 Sfmt 6581 E:\PUBLAW\PUBL456.110 JEFF PsN: PUBL456 bjneal on POFP91QD1 with PUBLAWS
122 STAT. 5042 PUBLIC LAW 110–456—DEC. 23, 2008
design selection and approval, the order, timing, and
conditions of issuance shall apply in like manner as
the initial issuance of quarter dollars under this subsection,
except that the issuance of quarter dollars
pursuant to such determination bearing the first design
shall commence in order immediately following the
last issuance of quarter dollars under the first round.
‘‘(iv) CONTINUATION UNTIL ALL STATES ARE HONORED.—
If the Secretary makes a determination under
clause (i), the program under this subsection shall
continue until a second site in each State has been
so honored

There is actually an option to do it all again!!!

I ..it you not.

[badhop55]

So in summation Congress gives the Secretary of the Treasury the option of going around a second time but does NOT give the Mint any options concerning coin diameter even after the Mint asks for aforementioned option.

Link to Public Law 110-456 pdf for those interested:

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-110publ456/pdf/PLAW-110publ456.pdf

[earplugs]

Viewed simply as a bullion purchase this is a killer deal. $325.79 for 10oz of silver is $32.58/oz. Just a touch above spot. S&H is a flat $10 so with 5 sets bought that $10 gets divvied up resulting in $32.78/oz. The slab plus the 69PL is a couple cherries on top.


Who's offering this deal?

[badhop55]

Who's offering this deal?

Apmex, but I just went to the site and the price has been changed to $352.70. I'm wondering if someone transposed the 2 and the 5 earlier. Plus last night there were 364 sets and today there are 444 available.

http://www.apmex.com/Product/61837/2011_5_oz_Silver_ATB_Gettysburg_National_Military_ Park_PA.aspx

[McBlzr]

I got a screen snip of the ad before they changed it.

13449

[badhop55]

I got a screen snip of the ad before they changed it.

13449

Nice!

I thought senility may have been setting in. Like maybe I was doing the transposing.

Thanks

[Dude]

Apmex, but I just went to the site and the price has been changed to $352.70. I'm wondering if someone transposed the 2 and the 5 earlier. Plus last night there were 364 sets and today there are 444 available.

http://www.apmex.com/Product/61837/2011_5_oz_Silver_ATB_Gettysburg_National_Military_ Park_PA.aspx

I bet they invoked the "not responsible for errors" clause and forwarded the correct price to buyers and got a quantity of orders returned back to stock. I was watching the numbers go down all night.