Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - Everyday - One Long Thread

[metalsmtl]

I've decided it's best to consolidate all daily posting's into one long thread. My blunders will now appear in an orderly fashion ;)

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/11/12

Broke the Cardinal rule of a trader yesterday and acted on misunderstood info. Had the info been as I understood, the trade would have been right. Even grizzly traders require mea copas now and then. At least it was not a loss, just took profit way too early.

The big news however was JP Chases announcement of a $2 billion, I suspect it will be more, loss on a hedge that went wrong. My modest experience would suggest a hedge is to mitigate loss, not cause it. Turns out they can afford it, but it is still uncertain if there will be collateral damage. The “ boys” don’t seem to have learned their lessons from 2008. Sounds like compliance jobs will be the next growth sector. This announcement created worry and the stock markets reacted accordingly. Add slower China growth and the metals again moved lower.

[metalsmtl]

I've decided it's best to consolidate all daily posting's into one long thread. My blunders will now appear in an orderly fashion ;)

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/11/12

Broke the Cardinal rule of a trader yesterday and acted on misunderstood info. Had the info been as I understood, the trade would have been right. Even grizzly traders require mea copas now and then. At least it was not a loss, just took profit way too early.

The big news however was JP Chases announcement of a $2 billion, I suspect it will be more, loss on a hedge that went wrong. My modest experience would suggest a hedge is to mitigate loss, not cause it. Turns out they can afford it, but it is still uncertain if there will be collateral damage. The “ boys” don’t seem to have learned their lessons from 2008. Sounds like compliance jobs will be the next growth sector. This announcement created worry and the stock markets reacted accordingly. Add slower China growth and the metals again moved lower.

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/14/12

Markets are very thin and nervous. Solid moves in either direction are possible.

Dollar remains well bid and equities remain well sold. Gold down another $20 and silver testing $28.20 ( minor support). I worry that much of Europe is being priced in. Everyone is betting that the Central banks will be there to add liquidity. I suspect the Europeans will begin to taker softer line on austerity and begin to follow the US model. This should be price supportive to the metals. I realllyyyy would like to see a capitulation in the metals. A feeling that the metals markets are over and quick selling, ideally taking silver below $26 and gold into my target range of $1,420-50. Trucks gassed up.

[Scorpio]

yep, I'm with you, that watch for volume selling in metals, then lock and load,

S

[metalsmtl]

yep, I'm with you, that watch for volume selling in metals, then lock and load,

S

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/15/12

Markets resting today. Better economic numbers from Germany should provide a respite from the selling. Gold needs to hold $1,550 or the $1,520’s are the next level. Equity markets may bounce today after seven day of losses. JP Morgan Chase’s loss although damaging to the retail investor’s psyche , is a minor blip on their bottom line. Metals may move higher today. Like long side intra day.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/15/12

Markets resting today. Better economic numbers from Germany should provide a respite from the selling. Gold needs to hold $1,550 or the $1,520’s are the next level. Equity markets may bounce today after seven day of losses. JP Morgan Chase’s loss although damaging to the retail investor’s psyche , is a minor blip on their bottom line. Metals may move higher today. Like long side intra day.

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/16/12

It took silver about an hour of rest before $28.00 was violated. Gold took the better part of the day but eventually $1,550 gave up the fight. Silver now ready to attack double support at $26.50which if lost should set stage for $22-$24 level. Gold in the low $1,400’s very real target. Something a little different this time. no place to hide. Equities under pressure as markets look forward to the financial mess facing the US after the election. Rates at zero and global growth slowing dramatically. Are we looking at a global Japan model aka 1990’s for the world. I hear the shovels in Utah as the neighbours begin digging the foundations for their bunkers. If you want a hedge buy Smith and Wesson.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/16/12

It took silver about an hour of rest before $28.00 was violated. Gold took the better part of the day but eventually $1,550 gave up the fight. Silver now ready to attack double support at $26.50which if lost should set stage for $22-$24 level. Gold in the low $1,400’s very real target. Something a little different this time. no place to hide. Equities under pressure as markets look forward to the financial mess facing the US after the election. Rates at zero and global growth slowing dramatically. Are we looking at a global Japan model aka 1990’s for the world. I hear the shovels in Utah as the neighbours begin digging the foundations for their bunkers. If you want a hedge buy Smith and Wesson.

Morning Outlook fromt he Trade Desk 05/17/12

Merkel says we stand together, we’ll see. Fed says it may add more liquidity, we’ll see. Everyone bearish the metals, pause. I am still hopeful to see my lower levels but yesterdays news caused the shorts to get nervous and the markets bounced from their lows. All eyes on Facebook IPO, which if NOT successful will not bode well for the equity markets in the short term. The market is very skittish. Prices between $1,535-$1,550 with risk to an upside break on continued short covering, but trend should continue lower. When we have 8 sellers to every two buyers on the retail side, we will have arrived at the lows. Ratio is moving in that direction, but not there yet. You can check out some thought provoking PM articles here - bulliontracking.com/en/blogs/

[Goldhedge]

When we have 8 sellers to every two buyers on the retail side, we will have arrived at the lows. Ratio is moving in that direction, but not there yet.

How do you determine where the ratio is at any given moment? :hmmmm2:

[metalsmtl]

How do you determine where the ratio is at any given moment? :hmmmm2:

I run a trade desk that serves primarily retail investors. We've seen alot of selling these last two weeks.

[metalsmtl]

I run a trade desk that serves primarily retail investors. We've seen alot of selling these last two weeks.

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/18/12

Short covering continued in Asia overnight as many got caught. The bad numbers from a regional Fed report yesterday gave many the hope of further Fed easing. There seems to be a consensus building that the US will have to print more dollars to meet the demand coming from Europe. The metals have decoupled recently from the safe haven trade but the dollar is up and so are metals. Will need to be watched closely. Until further evidence this still appears to be a short cover rally. But profit taking on the short Euro trade, US$ has been up for the last eight trading days, may scare more shorts.

[REO 54]

Gold Climbs a Second Day as Europe Concern Boosts Demand..........

"Gold for June delivery gained 1 percent to $1,590.70 an ounce by 7:58 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices are up 0.4 percent this week. Bullion for immediate delivery was 1.1 percent higher at $1,591.70 in London

Gold is up 1.5 percent this year after 11 consecutive annual increases. It slumped the previous two weeks as a stronger dollar cut demand for the metal as an alternative asset. Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded products rose 3.3 metric tons to 2,381.8 tons yesterday, about 1.2 percent below the March 13 record, data compiled by Bloomberg show. "

more at link...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-18/gold-set-for-third-weekly-decline-as-european-risks-curb-demand.html

[metalsmtl]

Gold Climbs a Second Day as Europe Concern Boosts Demand..........

"Gold for June delivery gained 1 percent to $1,590.70 an ounce by 7:58 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices are up 0.4 percent this week. Bullion for immediate delivery was 1.1 percent higher at $1,591.70 in London

Gold is up 1.5 percent this year after 11 consecutive annual increases. It slumped the previous two weeks as a stronger dollar cut demand for the metal as an alternative asset. Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded products rose 3.3 metric tons to 2,381.8 tons yesterday, about 1.2 percent below the March 13 record, data compiled by Bloomberg show. "

more at link...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-18/gold-set-for-third-weekly-decline-as-european-risks-curb-demand.html

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk

I appologize for the late post. Quebec's wonderful summer construction tactics never miss a beat. 1.5 hours to drive 15 miles today... ouch.

Markets again weaker overnight but only moderately. Traders awaiting tomorrows EU Summit and hoping with all their might that Germany may relent on issuing Eurobonds which should create some short term support for the Euro and an expected increase in metals values. If Germany holds firm, would expect Euro to continue to weaken which may bring the second test of $1,527, which if it occurs will give way, in my humble opinion.

[Joseph]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/16/12

It took silver about an hour of rest before $28.00 was violated. Gold took the better part of the day but eventually $1,550 gave up the fight. Silver now ready to attack double support at $26.50which if lost should set stage for $22-$24 level. Gold in the low $1,400’s very real target. Something a little different this time. no place to hide. Equities under pressure as markets look forward to the financial mess facing the US after the election. Rates at zero and global growth slowing dramatically. Are we looking at a global Japan model aka 1990’s for the world. I hear the shovels in Utah as the neighbours begin digging the foundations for their bunkers. If you want a hedge buy Smith and Wesson.


Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk

I appologize for the late post. Quebec's wonderful summer construction tactics never miss a beat. 1.5 hours to drive 15 miles today... ouch.

Markets again weaker overnight but only moderately. Traders awaiting tomorrows EU Summit and hoping with all their might that Germany may relent on issuing Eurobonds which should create some short term support for the Euro and an expected increase in metals values. If Germany holds firm, would expect Euro to continue to weaken which may bring the second test of $1,527, which if it occurs will give way, in my humble opinion.

metalsmtl,

For us newbies, please ...

You still seeing metals drop per your 5/16 outlook ?

thanks
Joseph

[metalsmtl]

metalsmtl,

For us newbies, please ...

You still seeing metals drop per your 5/16 outlook ?

thanks
Joseph

Hi Joseph, never a sure thing, but yes I do. I still feel $1400-$1500 will be attained before this is done. On a brighter note, I expect 2013 to be a big year for the metals.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook From the Trade Desk 05/23/12

Will Merkel blink? The bulls sure hope so. Every appendage on their bodies is crossed. Gold just hanging around $1,550 support, which will evaporate if Merkel stands firm. Should be an active market. Call out your one armed, blind monkeys and start having them throw their darts.

Retail sales up 50% in May over April. Volatile prices the #1 reason.

[Au-myn]

Futures lower this a.m.

http://www.forex-markets.com/indices-quotes.htm

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/24/12

The meltdown should have carried through yesterday, but I assume ahead of any potential announcements from the EU Summit, people covered their shorts. Ok so what was the good news. There wasn’t any hmmm. Metals should have tanked overnight, but as you will note they are up strongly, even after the Fed re-affirmed NO short term easing plans hmmmm

Suspect, two things:

The price for gold in Europe is actually rising in Euro terms and I suspect there is large physical off take in that market. Also Iran has not gone away and I don’t see the Israelis waiting until after the election. From an economics point of view, the commodity complex should and probably will continue lower. One element that trumps fundamental logic all the time is FEAR and there is plenty of that around.

Please note I will be on vacation as of tomorrow, returning to the desk 06/11/12. Posts will resume then.

[SongSungAU]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/24/12

...

Please note I will be on vacation as of tomorrow, returning to the desk 06/11/12. Posts will resume then.

Have a great vacation and enjoy! I will look forward to your posts when you return.

[metalsmtl]

Good morning,

I've returned from an excellent vacation to the southern Unites States - you must visit Goergia one day, beautiful parks and small towns. Anyway, onto the business at hand;

This morning I offer you a high-level, mid-term overview. Currently attending the IPMI conference in Las Vegas. The conference is well attended and consensus appears to continue to be volatile short term markets, focused on dollar value, European consensus and US growth. Majority see higher prices in 4th quarter. These are the pros in the market and I would tend to agree. 2013 outlook is very positive for the metals.

Regular daily posts to resume upon my return to the desk.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook From the Trade Desk 06/13/12

Greek elections coming on Sunday. Suspect after the slapping scene by the extreme right leader that the market may suspect the outcome of the election will leave the door open for a coalition government. Markets feel weak to me but I cant see major short initiatives ahead of the weekend. For a sustained rally in the Euro there must be an agreement for a European Central Bank, with some form of deposit insurance to create stability in the banks. It will take German agreement. So far, Merkle has not blinked but I think she will. There is a lot of dust in the air. If I am right, the metals should lift significantly.

[metalsmtl]

06/19/12

Markets slightly firmer on nothing more than nervousness against the Fed meeting tomorrow and the G-20 meeting Thursday. As I suggested yesterday, I am not backing up the truck to buy, but I also do not want to sweat it out being short. The next two days can break or make a traders month. Even my monkey is sitting quietly eating bananas and awaiting Germany’s expected win over Greece.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/20/12

Very tight ranges as markets await the Fed speak due out around 2 pm. If the Fed disappoints a significant sell-off may occur. If the Fed extends operation twist, there should be an initial updraft, but much of this scenario is already in the market. It will take an outright pledge for QE3 to blow the market higher ( I am not in this camp, but you never can say never with the Fed). I suspect the Fed will extend operation twist for a short period and jawbone that they stand ready to step in if things get worse with the economy. Ie status quo.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/21/12

The Fed did the minimum they could to placate the markets. As Tim pointed out, they extended Twist until the end of the year to bounce over the election time-table and jawboned that they would be prepared to do more if necessary. Fundamentally, as Jon points out the supply/demand picture is firmly bearish. All will now watch what comes out of G-20, which probably also will be more jawboning. Remember the Europeans tend to take the month of August off, major action is unlikely until after Labour Day. The one point to be careful of, prior to shorting the boat, is that the market will be very sensitive to any worsening economic news in fear of the Fed surprising them. This will create frantic gyrations, with the underlying tone being soft. Still in the camp, to take the money when you have it. markets will get thinner as the Summer takes hold. Why sweat the day to day emotions. A bird in the hand pays the rent.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/22/12

Markets finally understood that the Fed did virtually nothing on Wednesday. Yesterdays news of Moody downgrading 15 International Banks, that was pre-announced before the close, added to the continuing selling of the metals. Gold still some $50 away from serious support, however silver is dangerously close to the double bottom of $26.60 ish. A close below this level may set-up move to the $22-$24 range. Would still take the money off the table as we go. Staying short over weekend is not worth the risk, with European news possible while markets are closed. I am watching oil closely. In the last two down cycles, oil was able to maintain the $76 level. A bounce, albeit it may be a dead cat bounce, in oil will be metals price supportive. Scarry world out there, with the “D” word starting to be whispered.

Have a great weekend.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/26/12

Thin and nervous markets yesterday. They tried to break silver below the $26.65 mark but when they couldn’t they tried the other side and scared the shorts. Silver rallied almost a $1. Silver must break down to close below $26.60 for downtrend to accelerate. I am not a chartist but I think the charts would show a triple bottom for silver, which should be at least technically inspiring. G-20 meeting and headline news will keep these markets nervous. Going flat to long at support and letting the market take you short on bounces has proven a good trading strategy.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/27/12

Everything remains quiet ahead of the G-20. Markets should stay in their recent range today but a major news today tomorrow. Supreme Court ruling on Obama Care, unemployment preview, start of G-20 …. Buy the dips today. Cant imagine anyone aggressively short ahead to tomorrow.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/28/12

No sense in guessing on the headlines today. Enough said that any news or no news could cause a significant move. I really would do nothing. Too many crosswinds. If silver approached $26.60 I would buy. If it approached $27.30 I would sell. At these levels I would watch.Stay flat and enjoy watching the German/Italian match at 2:45 ET. Sauerkraut and sausages for one and all.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/29/12

By the skin of their teeth the metals held support at the close. Intra-day silver breached the critical $26.27 level but managed to close pennies above. The metals bounced overnight with gold showing a $20 gain and silver up some .40. it’s a Friday, have trouble seeing the market breach support before the weekend. Would buy the dips to go flat. Next week will be the catharsis for the markets. nothing from the EU should result on an assault on support again and if this happens the dyke may break.

Germans lost. On my way to get some Prozac. My Italian friends (tongue in cheek) have been calling me consistently to offer condolences (aha). As I mentioned to them yesterday, the Germans will eventually own Italy and we can combine the best of both teams. They pointed out that the Germans will also own Spain. Germans should win the next Euro-Cup since they for all intensive purposes will be the only team.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook form the Trade Desk 07/03/12

First the soccer team blinked against the Italians and then Merkel followed right along at the EU Summit. There was no real new concrete action, BUT they did agree on a method for re-capitalizing the European banks AND indicated agreement towards moving to a European Central Bank by the end of the year. There are huge hurdles to overcome to achieve the latter, but the fact that a consensus appeared where in the past these jokers couldn’t agree on the menu, gave International markets “hope” and the shorts got massacred. Most commodities moved up 5% or more, the best one day move since 2009. Is this move real and does it have legs? Would want to see gold close above $1,620 first and then $1,640 to signal a test of $1,700. It serves to prove that taking a position in this market is counter productive. These markets are moving solely on perception. Fundamentals, ie supply demand are firmly bearish. Perceptions of runaway inflation, debasement of global currencies, Israel’s imminent attack on Iran create enough counter balance to ‘drive” a short term trader to drink. Not that most short term traders need the lift.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/05/12

I hope all of our American friends enjoyed their 4th of July celebrations.

The week will continue with thin trading as most traders I know are working skeleton staffs in the US. The EU and England widely expected to lower rates today. Most of the movement will be this morning. The markets continue to expect more Global easing, which is what the metals “need”. Summer trading, THIN, EMOTIONAL and TRICKY. Buy support sell resistance, tight stops.

If you already own gold and silver and are looking for a way to track the performance of your holdings, check out this handy little tracking tool, a free trial is available - www.bulliontracking.com. It was developed by industry professionals and is gaining in popularity very quickly amongst private investors that I know.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/06/12

Metals couldn’t break up through resistance as expected and now may flirt with initial support levels. Gold support $1,578 and silver $27.08. Much will depend on the unemployment data today. Weak job growth, anything under 80,000 may actually be beneficial for the metals as the market will then expect the Fed to step in with new liquidity measures. A strong employment number should create flows into the US$, which should create further selling. Suspect most of the action will be over by noon as the American market continues to be in July 4th holiday mode. These are the kind of days where action by the Fed would have dramatic results. Not expected, but that’s why its called a “surprise”.