southfork
06-26-2012, 07:42 PM
OH OH, TPTB are priming for something
http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/analysis/is-silver-set-to-go-sub-%252410-again%2520-127597
By Abigail Doolittle | Commodities | Jun 26, 2012 04:18AM GMT | Add a Comment
Abigail Doolittle
Articles (418)
Article
Enough attention was paid to the chart of gold last week with its confirmed Double Top highlighted in the context of what appears to be a Descending Triangle that confirms near $1,524 for a target of $1,136 per ounce and so let’s look at what’s happening in silver, but before turning to that very bearish chart, let’s take a quick look at gold through GLD.
GLD CHART
GLD’s Double Top remains confirmed below $153 for a target of $147 and it is supported by April’s Death Cross along with that Descending Triangle – and a massively bearish pattern – that confirms at $148 for a target of $110. Maybe GLD defies its Double Top to move up toward the top trendline representing GLD’s true downtrend near $164, but more likely is GLD trading between $148 and $156 for a few weeks before fulfilling the Double Top to confirm the Descending Triangle to the downside with the unlikely upside scenario worth dissecting only if it becomes more relevant.
Turning now to silver, its chart is similar to gold over the long-term but differs slightly in the near-term.
SILVER CHART
What is similar in silver to gold is the long-term Descending Trend Channel that was not highlighted in the chart of GLD for its Descending Triangle, but it is this technical aspect in gold and silver that is most worth weighing at this point and that is a year-long downtrend that is trying to reverse the long-term uptrend in both gold and silver.
Before turning to the Descending Triangle nestled in silver’s Descending Trend Channel, let’s treat what could have been a Double Bottom or a bearishly-oriented Symmetrical Triangle just last Wednesday with the latter winning out on Thursday and Friday on confirmation of $26.75 per ounce for a target of $21.85 per ounce.
It was that possible Double Bottom along with the true top trendline of the Descending Trend Channel in gold and silver that had caused me to believe there was a shot that gold might trade close to its 150 DMA at $1,657 per ounce and silver to some level between $31 and $32 per ounce but that near-term bullish possibility was never achieved ahead of the FOMC meeting and is unlikely to be achieved until the QE3-Dreams become strong enough again. Perhaps this does happen in Q3 with this being a typically strong “season” for the precious metals, but this recent and failed attempt to rise to the trendline marking the respective downtrends in each does not support it.
This failure by silver, of course, puts the focus on that massive Descending Triangle that confirms at $26.13 per ounce for a target so low it is not worth mentioning outside of saying silver may slide sub-$10 per ounce and a level last seen in 2008.
Let’s take a look at how silver’s unbelievably bearish look translates to SLV and its bearish Symmetrical Triangle will confirm below $25.99 for a target of $21.54.
SLV CHART
Relative to that hugely bearish Descending Triangle that shows nicely in SLV’s weekly chart above, it confirms at $25.65 for a seemingly absurd target that is sub-$10 and a level not seen since 2008.
Interestingly, SLV’s full weekly chart and one that is not shown here raises some hope that it might defy that truly bearish feat to rise superbly higher, but this possibility is not showing in the chart of silver, GLD or gold and so unless it becomes more of a possibility and one that requires SLV to take out $36.44 and silver to rise above $37.55 per ounce, it makes little sense to treat it too seriously.
Somewhat unbelievably, though, it does make sense to think that silver may go sub-$10 again.
http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/analysis/is-silver-set-to-go-sub-%252410-again%2520-127597
By Abigail Doolittle | Commodities | Jun 26, 2012 04:18AM GMT | Add a Comment
Abigail Doolittle
Articles (418)
Article
Enough attention was paid to the chart of gold last week with its confirmed Double Top highlighted in the context of what appears to be a Descending Triangle that confirms near $1,524 for a target of $1,136 per ounce and so let’s look at what’s happening in silver, but before turning to that very bearish chart, let’s take a quick look at gold through GLD.
GLD CHART
GLD’s Double Top remains confirmed below $153 for a target of $147 and it is supported by April’s Death Cross along with that Descending Triangle – and a massively bearish pattern – that confirms at $148 for a target of $110. Maybe GLD defies its Double Top to move up toward the top trendline representing GLD’s true downtrend near $164, but more likely is GLD trading between $148 and $156 for a few weeks before fulfilling the Double Top to confirm the Descending Triangle to the downside with the unlikely upside scenario worth dissecting only if it becomes more relevant.
Turning now to silver, its chart is similar to gold over the long-term but differs slightly in the near-term.
SILVER CHART
What is similar in silver to gold is the long-term Descending Trend Channel that was not highlighted in the chart of GLD for its Descending Triangle, but it is this technical aspect in gold and silver that is most worth weighing at this point and that is a year-long downtrend that is trying to reverse the long-term uptrend in both gold and silver.
Before turning to the Descending Triangle nestled in silver’s Descending Trend Channel, let’s treat what could have been a Double Bottom or a bearishly-oriented Symmetrical Triangle just last Wednesday with the latter winning out on Thursday and Friday on confirmation of $26.75 per ounce for a target of $21.85 per ounce.
It was that possible Double Bottom along with the true top trendline of the Descending Trend Channel in gold and silver that had caused me to believe there was a shot that gold might trade close to its 150 DMA at $1,657 per ounce and silver to some level between $31 and $32 per ounce but that near-term bullish possibility was never achieved ahead of the FOMC meeting and is unlikely to be achieved until the QE3-Dreams become strong enough again. Perhaps this does happen in Q3 with this being a typically strong “season” for the precious metals, but this recent and failed attempt to rise to the trendline marking the respective downtrends in each does not support it.
This failure by silver, of course, puts the focus on that massive Descending Triangle that confirms at $26.13 per ounce for a target so low it is not worth mentioning outside of saying silver may slide sub-$10 per ounce and a level last seen in 2008.
Let’s take a look at how silver’s unbelievably bearish look translates to SLV and its bearish Symmetrical Triangle will confirm below $25.99 for a target of $21.54.
SLV CHART
Relative to that hugely bearish Descending Triangle that shows nicely in SLV’s weekly chart above, it confirms at $25.65 for a seemingly absurd target that is sub-$10 and a level not seen since 2008.
Interestingly, SLV’s full weekly chart and one that is not shown here raises some hope that it might defy that truly bearish feat to rise superbly higher, but this possibility is not showing in the chart of silver, GLD or gold and so unless it becomes more of a possibility and one that requires SLV to take out $36.44 and silver to rise above $37.55 per ounce, it makes little sense to treat it too seriously.
Somewhat unbelievably, though, it does make sense to think that silver may go sub-$10 again.