Need Help Understanding the CFTC "Commitment of Traders" Report for Silver & Gold

[gunDriller]

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is a list that summarizes various traders' positions in the precious metals market.

I hear guys like Ted Butler and Harvey Organ talk about the COT Report like it means something, and I believe them. It has terms like "open interest" and "Disaggregated Commitments of Traders" and "Changes in Commitments from"

I will paste one week's worth below. I have a feeling that there is a correlation between what is buried in the COT and related reports, and the recent uptick to $1230 - $1240 for gold and the subsequent price retreat. I would like to understand these price movements better.

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/other_lof.htm

linked to from
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm


Question #2 - The COT List looks to be a summary. Where could I obtain a more detailed list, that shows buy and sell offers and related information at every price point ? Or do I have to join an exchange and be listed as a metal trader to get this kind of information ?


SILVER - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-084691
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders - Options and Futures Combined, June 1, 2010
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
: : Producer/Merchant/ : : : : Positions
: Open : Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Interest : Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading : Long : Short :Spreading : Long : Short :Spreading : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: :(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES) :
: : Positions :
All : 156,371: 8,406 63,646 22,142 22,070 10,546 32,035 1,876 17,139 10,868 2,756 26,307: 28,928 12,032
Old : 156,371: 8,406 63,646 22,142 22,070 10,546 32,035 1,876 17,139 10,868 2,756 26,307: 28,928 12,032
Other: 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0: 0 0
: : :
: : Changes in Commitments from: May 25, 2010 :
: 4,048: -45 1,155 558 515 1,196 -117 -1,954 689 171 134 964: 632 1,348
: : :
: : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
All : 100.0: 5.4 40.7 14.2 14.1 6.7 20.5 1.2 11.0 7.0 1.8 16.8: 18.5 7.7
Old : 100.0: 5.4 40.7 14.2 14.1 6.7 20.5 1.2 11.0 7.0 1.8 16.8: 18.5 7.7
Other: 100.0: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0: 0.0 0.0
: : :
: : Number of Traders in Each Category :
All : 166: 11 25 14 11 17 44 9 16 36 19 36:
Old : 166: 11 25 14 11 17 44 9 16 36 19 36:
Other: 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0:
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Percent of Open Interest Held by the Indicated Number of the Largest Traders
: By Gross Position By Net Position
: 4 or Less Traders 8 or Less Traders 4 or Less Traders 8 or Less Traders
: Long: Short Long Short: Long Short Long Short
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All : 17.3 39.3 25.7 51.3 10.0 33.4 16.6 43.0
Old : 17.3 39.3 25.7 51.3 10.0 33.4 16.6 43.0
Other: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

[Stormdancer]

I don't personally know anyone who does the kind of analysis you're looking for. It would require time I don't have and a level of inside knowledge available only to people who are deep inside the system as current or former brokers, pit traders or bullion bankers. Ted Butler is probably one of the premier sources of PM COT analysis. You might check out some of the GATA crew as well....Ed Steer, Bill Murphy, Chris Powell....Eric Sprott, John Embry...lots of others I can't recall right now occaisionally comment on the COT/market structure. Harvey Organ's blog is a great resource for options/warehouse stocks/delivery info and occaisionally comments on the COT as well.

In my personal opinion, COT analysis is more art than science and I've never found any COT analyst particularly predictive when it comes to timing moves in metal prices....but sometimes they can point to high risk periods where a downdraft seems a bit more likely or the opposite, and I do read their reports...but only as an aside viewed as a "contributing factor" when they align with other factors.

[SevenEyedJeff]

I agree with Stormdancer about Ted Butler. He gives a weekly metals wrap interview every weekend on the King World News website - you might want to tune in to that.

[gunDriller]

Ted Butler is probably one of the premier sources of PM COT analysis. You might check out some of the GATA crew as well....Ed Steer, Bill Murphy, Chris Powell....Eric Sprott, John Embry...lots of others I can't recall right now occaisionally comment on the COT/market structure. Harvey Organ's blog is a great resource for options/warehouse stocks/delivery info and occaisionally comments on the COT as well.

thanks to everyone for the advice !

i have been listening to the King World broadcasts & also Harvey Organ's blog.

i have the frequent reaction, "how did you get that conclusion from looking at that abstract table of Open Interest, Longs, Shorts etc." - i wish they would explain that.

but it seems like analyses, e.g. when Harvey says "24 milion ounces of gold standing for delivery" - well, they're not just looking at the COT chart.

so, i want to understand the COT chart but I would also like to get access to the trading data it is derived from.

oh well, it took me about 9 months to begin to understand credit derivatives, i'll just be patient and keep asking questions.