Silver

[jbilprophet123]

Just $.03 cents from the $24 number in the aftermarket. Silver is beyond strong.

Correction .03 above 24!!

[svm]

OMG ~! Correct already!... never again am i going to go short on these overbought indicators.... its so true.. dont try to time it unless u know your stuff down cold. so far its just my physical tat has truely gained in value cuz i cant even liquidate it by pressing a mouse button! But either way go silver!...

Wats your projected support level Strawboss? it just breezed thru 20...

[Oldmansmith]

Some people can time, 90% of us can't. That is why I just buy physical and hold. If it goes down then I buy more. Not rocket science.

[Strawboss]

My target was $23ish and I would have given $24 as the top of my range. We are past that now a bit. Not much to do but sit back and watch. I would NOT add to positions here - I would definitely NOT short. If you havent yet lightened up on mining positions - that might be a good idea on a selective basis. The higher we climb - the steeper the fall. I still think we will correct back to about $19.50ish - but, from what height?

[Strawboss]

Here is the link to this weeks report.

http://www.bullion-master.com/the-silver-mining_report-10-13.10.pdf

The hardest lesson in silver I have learned is to control your emotions. Usually at this time, you start to think that silver might just keep running and running and running - a straightshot to (insert your number here). It is precisely at moments like this that you need to control your emotions and ensure that the decisions you are making are good ones (the ones where the laws of probability are in your favor).

The probability is heavily weighted towards a correction and becomes more of a probability with each passing day.

If I am wrong - you will still be gaining on all of your physical and approx. 2/3 of your mining stocks.

[AgAuGal]

bummed, all of my local dealers are out of town til Sunday, silver is up up up and I want to sell a little before the inevitable 'rest'. Can't believe the timing.....

I want it to hold sideways or continue up 2 more days....just saying power of positive thinking - cause my dang dealers are out of town - gone fishin just when I want to sell a little. conspiracy I tell ya

[4dabopper]

:banana::banana::banana:

ct 13 2010 11:15PM NY Time
Bid/Ask 24.27 24.29
Low/High 23.39 24.42
Change +0.22 +0.91%
30DayChg +4.22 +21.05%
1YearChg +6.49 +36.50%

:bowdown::bowdown::shine:

[anywoundedduck]

Bloomberg TV keeps flashing this stories headline on the bottom of the screen.
Silver to Remain in `Substantial Surplus,' Mine Supply to Gain, GFMS Says
By Bloomberg News - Oct 16, 2010 3:07 AM ET Tweet LinkedIn Share
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email .The silver market this year will remain in “substantial surplus” even as the metal is being “absorbed” by investors, GFMS Chairman Philip Klapwijk said in slides prepared for delivery at a Beijing conference today.

Silver mine supply may gain by more than 400 tons in 2010 and silver sales by governments, while largely unpredictable, are expected to remain at low levels, said Klapwijk.

Who is GFMS? The GFMS website, makes the following claims:
GFMS is the world's foremost precious metals consultancy, specialising in research into the global gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets.
GFMS is based in London, UK, but has representation in Australia, India, China, France, Spain and Russia, and a vast range of contacts and associates across the world.
GFMS can claim to be the only genuinely independent researchers of the gold market, as we do not rely solely on financial support from one sector of the industry. You can trust us to give it to you straight.

Hmmm. I think you can trust GFMS to give it to you straight, right up the ass. This is obviously a fabricated story, made up by someone who wants you to dump whatever silver you may have. From the past evidence that has been presented on GIM regarding the current shortfalls in the inventories of Silver, and the fact that the so called self proclaimed experts are London UK based, I conclude that I should buy as much silver as I can afford. Bet the farm. Bet the house. Let it ride. JMHO.
AWD

[Zed]

Hey Duck...

Commodities are booming out here in the Asian world... silver is a byproduct... copper, zinc etc production is all UP, therefore there will be more silver, they are right, it is that simple! There will be a surplus against industrial demand, the harder thing to get a handle on is investment demand. They will have some linear projection in there for investment demand but it can vary wildly as we have seen SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.... while they are correct in many ways it dose not mean a lot for silver in terms of price. Price will be settled by the level of pressure developed by investment demand so watch the USD, seasonals etc... just keep in mind that silver is supply inelastic, price has very little impact on supply which gives us the wild swings both up and down. Soooooooooooooooo.... if we get a really good high this season what the GFMS report is saying is that the fuel will be there for another silver swan dive when this burst of investment demand runs its course. In the future when silver is booming and commodities are not, then we have a different animal, but for now, hang on, this bull will get wild again. JMHO.

[lowcommotion]

[QUOTE=Strawboss;93868]Here is the link to this weeks report.

http://www.bullion-master.com/the-silver-mining_report-10-13.10.pdf

The hardest lesson in silver I have learned is to control your emotions. Usually at this time, you start to think that silver might just keep running and running and running - a straightshot to (insert your number here). It is precisely at moments like this that you need to control your emotions and ensure that the decisions you are making are good ones (the ones where the laws of probability are in your favor).

The probability is heavily weighted towards a correction and becomes more of a probability with each passing day.

If I am wrong - you will still be gaining on all of your physical and approx. 2/3 of your mining stocks.[/QUOTE



Not according to Gann. Looking like a runaway move up so rather than sell I would consider a loose trailing stop.
Recent move up then down then reversal would take out a tight stop and leave you behind. JMHO

[Zed]

Oh noes! Don't mention Gann, we have enough controversy around here already! He is one dude that will get stock traders arguing passionately!

A trailing stop, YES, I couldn't agree more... silver can surprise and we want as much of it as we can get!

[4dabopper]

http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/2010/10/growing-strain-of-control-in-silver.html

[Zed]

... the silver wet dream about to come true?

All I have to say is....


Yeah Baby! Bring it on!


http://anthillonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/yeah-baby-austin-powers.jpg

[Voodoo]

It looks like we are going to get a correction that we were looking for Strawboss. The symmetry really is beautiful as look where the 23% Fib retracement falls, right on the highs from 2008 near $21 per ounce. :shine: That is my first buying target and will probably buy back around 50% of what I sold. Ultimately I think the $19.50 area will be very strong support.


Well for some reason the website simply won't let me upload that picture. Hmm... tried lots of formats, smaller size, names and nothing. Still lets me upload the older ones. Sorry.

[Strawboss]

Voodoo - figure out how to post your pics - definitely want to see them...

We should have better clarity by the end of the week - I am particularly interested in seeing the weekly close. The situation with the mortgages definitely seems to have the potential to catalyze credit crisis part deux - just in time for the Fed to announce QE round 2.

I think its safe to say that the VIX is going to rise...

[Voodoo]

Well I tried downloading a new screen capture and image editing program and tried again. The website just refuses to upload these pictures. I click on upload file and it says, please wait uploading file, then disapears without it uploaded. I have no idea what is going on.

[Strawboss]

Here is a chart for silver that reflects my thinking on where we are headed. As I mentioned before, I think we are going to see $19.50ish on the downside. I intend to begin buying at $22 and adding with every .50 drop in price from there. I can envision a drop from $21 down to $19.50 in a matter of hours with the price rebounding back to $21 - creating one hell of a tail. That is how volatile I envision silver in the not too distant future.

Of particular importance to me is that the RSI is currently below 40 which is a good indicator of a trend change. This is the first time it has been below 40 since the move at $17.50 began. Ignore that signal at your own risk...

http://i1000.photobucket.com/albums/af126/Strawboss_2009/silver101910.jpg

[jupitergold]

http://www.turtletrader.com/files/images/paul-tudor-jones.jpg


:biggrin:

[4dabopper]

Incidentally for you silver fans out there, silver, priced in terms of the Euro, made an all time high in price at today’s London Fix.


It's not always about the buck........

[Eat Beef]

The Euro is what, 6 weeks old?:biggrin:

[Strawboss]

Here is the link to this weeks report on the silver mining stocks I follow.

http://bullion-master.com/the-silver-mining_report-10-20.10.pdf

[Strawboss]

One of the cool things to me about this thread (in addition to the great people that contribute) is how you can sense the ebb and flow of the market by it. Did you notice the last 2 weeks the increase in traffic/postings? And now - its back to its normal self - sitting in golds shadow.

As mentioned, silver always takes the lead at the end of moves as the frenzied rush of those late to the party show up. Technical indicators are useful, but, so is being able to feel the market.

If you are one of those that are relatively new and perhaps bought at something other than an optimal time (like in the last couple of weeks) - dont worry - you will be fine. It just might hurt for a bit while we get a much needed correction. Needed because it is this correction that will pave the way for a HUGE move upwards that is coming. This correction, in my opinion, wont be nearly as bad as it was a couple of years ago. This one will be mild in comparison - down to perhaps $20-21 or so. I would expect that we will bounce around quite a bit between here and there but there is MASSIVE support near that level and there are big, big buyers that are waiting to jump in and silver is a small market with fantastic fundamentals in its favor.

But, we may have a bit of turbulence in the near future.

Whatever you do - dont sell any physical.

Strap on your seatbelt folks because the volatility is going to be like nothing we have ever seen before.

[Gcubed]

Straw I'm curious. Is silver not still in the trading range that you predicted a pull back from? Has there even been a correction according to your forecast? What are we actually in store for?

'cubed

[Strawboss]

Cubed - I think that a correction is very, very likely. If we havent seen the top in silver for this move - I think it is very close to here.

As for where we are headed - in my opinion - I think we will see $19.50ish which I think will come in the form of a candlestick with a long tail (intraday low). Once that happens, I think silver is going to start acting like a raging bull with moves of several dollars a day in a generally up direction.


Straw I'm curious. Is silver not still in the trading range that you predicted a pull back from? Has there even been a correction according to your forecast? What are we actually in store for?

'cubed

[Gcubed]

OK, so we haven't seen a correction yet. I'm just looking for guidance in order that I may manage my "retail detail". Got lots to learn ;)

[Zed]

OMG ~! Correct already!... never again am i going to go short on these overbought indicators.... its so true.. dont try to time it unless u know your stuff down cold. so far its just my physical tat has truely gained in value cuz i cant even liquidate it by pressing a mouse button! But either way go silver!...

Wats your projected support level Strawboss? it just breezed thru 20...

Shorting at this time of year, off the action we saw across sumer, with the prospects we have for QEII and India's buying season is... just... plain... mad IMO. Short in May maybe... if you must.

[Zed]

OK, so we haven't seen a correction yet. I'm just looking for guidance in order that I may manage my "retail detail". Got lots to learn ;)

I'd stock them chocolate centered coins, I love'm, nice and shinny and sweet as well.... {ducks} Neener neener YA MISSED!

Seriously... we have to break trend first, until then no point in discussing a correction. When that happens we start plotting... at least that is my approach, one step at a time.

[Zed]

It's not always about the buck........

Less and less so.

[klichko]

Dear Strawboss,

This is my first post in this thread. I do not have much to say other than thank you. I have been keeping an eye on this thread for a few weeks and I appreciate your opinion. I am looking to add more silver (and gold) to my stash and I am following your advise. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR SHARING YOUR INSIGHT!!!

[GoldWampum]

I said we'd see twenty again and still believe that. this retraction is so textbook. It's like they set the computers for high and low everyday and let it float. double tops, double bottoms, 50% retraces. It's really quite poetic and fun to observe.