View Full Version : Silver
Hawkeye
04-10-2010, 11:38 AM
Can I play?...nice thread you guys....bottom line...just accumulate the shiney stuff...NOW!!!!:bear_tongue:
http://i176.photobucket.com/albums/w176/Hawkeye_019/040910Q.png
Voodoo
04-10-2010, 11:45 AM
Sure Hawkeye, good to see you around again. The more the merrier but I really like it when you can find three different independent TA all pointing to the same number. Surely cannot be a bad sign.
Eat Beef
04-10-2010, 01:39 PM
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell......
Gcubed
04-10-2010, 01:49 PM
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell...... Nope, I dunt believe it!! :reddy:
Strawboss
04-13-2010, 06:51 AM
Parallel lines fascinate me...
http://i1000.photobucket.com/albums/af126/Strawboss_2009/silver41310.jpg
Strawboss
04-13-2010, 08:59 PM
Thank you Ted for all that you have done for all these years. I believe your analysis is spot on. The only thing I would add is that at some point, it will make economic sense to figure out a way to retrieve all the silver sitting in landfills all over the world. The only question is what price will make that extraction profitable...
Interview with Ted Butler
By: Theodore Butler and Jim Cook
-- Posted 13 April, 2010 | Share this article | Discuss This Article - Comments: 1 Source: SilverSeek.com
Here’s an interview with Jim Cook of Investment Rarities, Inc. on April 8, 2010.
Years ago, Jimmy Stewart played the lead in a movie titled, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. In this case, it was Mr. Butler goes to Washington. Who did you meet with?
A: I met with the senior staff responsible for regulatory matters for about an hour and a half.
Q: Was the Chairman of the CFTC, Gary Gensler there?
A: He stopped by to introduce himself and chat briefly.
Q: What, in a nutshell was discussed?
A: Basically my long-held premise of a manipulation in COMEX silver via the documented concentrated short position. They asked an awful lot of on-the-money questions, to which I replied directly.
Q: Did you have reason to believe they agreed with your arguments?
A: Since they didn’t offer any challenges to what I said, and their follow up questions didn’t seem argumentative in the least, I sensed they were in basic agreement.
Q: What stands out about the meeting?
A: The seriousness with which they approached the issue.
Q: The following day, the public hearing took place. What did you think of that?
A: I thought it was great. Here we had a public meeting that revolved around the very issues I have petitioned the CFTC on for 20 years. Much to the Commission’s credit, the fact that they had rejected my contentions in the past didn’t deter them from addressing the issues openly.
Q: What issues were raised?
A: Whether we should have position limits in silver and gold.
Q: What else?
A: Why there is such a big concentrated short position in silver.
Q: What about whether the price is manipulated?
A: Yes, all of that.
Q: Who was on the other side?
A: The big banks, the exchange and all others from the silver “establishment” were opposed to hard position limits.
Q: What was their argument?
A: That is would drive liquidity and business from the COMEX to markets overseas.
Q: What were they angling for?
A: To preserve the status quo of allowing the biggest traders to continue to control the market. The big banks and the exchange are certainly not interested in having a level playing field.
Q: What about their argument that position limits would reduce liquidity?
A: It clearly was a bogus case, because causing a few large short traders to reduce their positions would actually increase liquidity, not decrease it. Legitimate hard position limits in silver, for example, even if those limits were reduced to the 1500 contract level I recommend would only affect less than 1% of all traders on the COMEX.
Q: Did that point come out?
A: Not at the meeting. But I will be sure to make that point in the future, in the public comment period.
Q: What exactly is the public comment period?
A: The time when the Commission seeks written input from the public on specific issues that goes on the official record.
Q: Should people comment?
A: Absolutely. The hundreds of public comments last year on silver and gold are what led to this recent CFTC hearing. It’s very important to email or write to the Commission on this issue. All comments must be received by April 26, 2010.
Q: Was JPMorgan at the hearing?
A: No.
Q: Why wouldn’t they attend?
A: My guess is that they didn’t want to answer specific questions and incriminate themselves.
Q: The whole thing sounds like a review of all the issues you have raised. Do you agree?
A: Absolutely. That’s what made it so great.
Q: Would it be safe to say that this meeting wouldn’t have taken place if it were not for you?
A: All modesty aside, I don’t see how.
Q: What happens next?
A: There has been tremendous attention placed upon the meeting and the important issues are being openly discussed and considered.
Q: I’m more interested in what happens next to the price.
A: The price of silver is going a lot higher.
Q: I’ve already had some complaints that nothing happened after the hearing. What do we tell these people?
A: Tell them the same thing you told them at $4, $5, $7, and every other price over the past ten years. Look, silver’s the best investment to come along in most people’s lifetimes. Have some patience. Besides, the price did go higher in the days following the meeting.
Q: Do you think position limits will be changed downward?
A: Yes, in silver. At a minimum, the position limits in COMEX silver will be adjusted downward relative to gold.
Q: When might this happen?
A: My feeling is after the price has moved up a lot. And I think that will be soon.
Q: What about exemptions to position limits?
A: Everyone knows that is the key. If they don’t crack down on JPMorgan and the other big shorts, the CFTC will be discredited.
Q: Do you think the big short sellers expect these changes?
A: I think JPMorgan does. I think the others may be missing what’s coming.
Q: They must be taking actions to protect themselves, don’t you think?
A: I think JPMorgan is taking action, not the others.
Q: What can they do?
A: Close out their shorts by buying them back or delivering against them, and most importantly, not selling short on the next price rally.
Q: Do you see any signs of this?
A: Yes, as regards JPMorgan. And they are the key.
Q: What happens if JPMorgan does sell short on the next rally?
A: I think there will be a public outcry and both JPMorgan and the CFTC will come under severe criticism. I know I won’t hold back.
Q: You have been very complimentary and supportive of the new Chairman of the CFTC, Gary Gensler, in spite of much disagreement. Why so?
A: Look, I judge people by what they say or do, not on some preconceived notions. He’s said and done the right things.
Q: I see many are jumping on the bandwagon about position limits. How does that make you feel?
A: Good. After 20 years, it’s about time.
Q: You are the sole person who raised the issue of position limits on silver. Do you think the CFTC is finally on board?
A: I think the leadership is.
Q: Exactly what impact do you see these rule changes having in silver?
A: The silver manipulation will be terminated.
Q: What will that do to the price?
A: It should go much higher.
Q: You’ve expressed to me privately and to our broker staff why you think people should buy silver now. Would you state the case here?
A: A number of factors have converged, in addition to the regulatory matters. The most important of these factors involve strong signs of an emerging wholesale shortage of silver.
Q: What signs?
A: Over the past 5 or 6 weeks, there have been unusual movements in COMEX warehouse silver stocks and deliveries by JPMorgan, as well as the withdrawal of a significant amount of silver from the big silver ETF, SLV. Taken together, these unusual movements suggest the big dealers are scraping the bottom of the barrel to come up with the timely delivery of silver to their wholesale customers. It appears to me that the big dealers are borrowing silver from Peter in order to pay Paul. This is a juggling act in which one misstep will unravel the whole silver scam.
Q: How much silver has been taken out of the SLV?
A: 9.5 million ounces in five weeks. Frankly, it’s beginning to look like there isn’t enough silver to go around.
Q: I know you think silver is better than gold. Why?
A: I don’t sense the same juggling act taking place in gold. The critical difference between gold and silver is that gold is not consumed industrially, while silver is. As a result of this critical difference, there is less silver bullion in the world than gold. Silver’s industrial consumption sets up the likelihood of a shortage, a condition not present in gold. Silver has investment demand on top of industrial demand. Gold has mostly investment demand.
Q: What does this mean to buyers of silver?
A: You can make a lot more money with silver than you can with gold. Silver can rise much more percentage wise.
Q: Can you be more specific?
A: I can see gold rising in price 20% or so, under the right circumstances, say up to $1,300. I can see silver easily rising 100% to 200%, to $35 or $70. In almost any scenario, I can see silver outperforming gold by five or ten times. With silver you are going to get the biggest bang for your investment dollar.
Q: But gold and silver performance has been roughly equivalent over the past ten years, haven’t they?
A: I realize that, and both have performed better than stocks or bonds or real estate. But I am convinced that the facts point to silver vastly outperforming gold. May I speak in blunt terms?
Q: I think my ears could handle it.
A: I think that gold investors who don’t hold a significant silver exposure have been lucky to date that gold has kept pace with silver. And I think these gold investors are being given a tremendous opportunity now to convert some or all of their gold holdings to silver.
Q: That’s not likely to happen in a big way, is it?
A: If all the gold investors were to make the switch there is not enough silver. But some can. I hope they do because silver is going to beat the stuffing out of gold price-wise, and there are going to be a lot of gold-only investors who will regret not making the switch.
Q: What can happen with investor demand if prices rise?
A: Initially, it will increase. It’s human nature for investment demand to grow as prices increase. Later on, at much higher prices, investors may begin to sell. When we get to those much higher prices, we’ll monitor investor behavior.
Q: Are the industrial users still oblivious to the events unfolding in silver?
A: Absolutely. The example I like to use is that they are like a giant herd of wildebeests on an African plain, feeding but sniffing the air for the scent of lions. When they do get the scent, they are all off and running. When the users get the first silver shipment delay notices, they will all panic and rush to build silver inventories. I don’t see what can stop it.
Q: What about these pool accounts and silver storage where there is paper silver but not real silver?
A: That is a very big problem still, even though so much as been written about it over the years. If you don’t have the serial numbers and exact weights of the 1000 oz. bars being held for you, with the ability to take delivery immediately of those exact same bars, you don’t own silver. Period. How anyone could continue to hold unallocated and not specifically earmarked silver is beyond me.
Q: As far as mainstream financial news is concerned, you are still a voice in the wilderness. How come so few people see what you see?
A: Because they don’t take the time to study the facts. It’s much easier to just assume you already know everything you need to know about silver and skip time-consuming tasks of actually studying it.
Q: Is that good for silver buyers?
A: Of course. It gives those who do take the time to learn the real silver facts the opportunity to buy before the crowd wakes up. Just ask those who loaded up at single-digit silver prices. The same will be said about buyers at today’s prices.
Q: Any new breakthroughs in the uses for silver?
A: Every single day. When you have a material that is the world’s best conductor of electricity, best heat transfer agent, best reflector of light, and best biocide, how could there not be new breakthrough? Silver is the most versatile metal of all.
Q: Is industrial demand for silver still growing?
A: Sure. As long as world GDP and population grows, silver industrial demand will grow. But what’s really remarkable is the composition of silver demand.
Q: In what way?
A: How many commodities can you name where its main demand engine was crushed and other new demands emerged to maintain and increase total demand? None. Yet silver lost its main demand sector in photography and still overall demand increased. That’s incredible and shows just how versatile silver is as a vital industrial material.
Q: What impact do you think China has on silver?
A: Huge; both from a production and refining perspective and as a consumer. China is currently the largest consumer of all metals and that doesn’t look to change except accelerate. The long-term future of the price of silver will be determined by China.
Q: How will they react to a big surge in the silver price?
A: I’m not exactly sure, but if you stick around for a while, I guess we’ll all see with our own eyes.
Q: China recently made silver ownership legal. Are the Chinese people known to be buying silver?
A: There were reports to that effect a while back, but information from China is sketchy. I think it’s safe to say, however, that they will play a major role in the future.
Q: What about the inflation factor? Is silver one of the things to own to offset inflation?
A: Sure, but that’s kind of elementary, so I don’t write about it much. There’s not much value added in telling folks what they already know.
Q: Retirees on fixed incomes are getting hurt by low interest rates. They are afraid to risk their precious capital in silver. What do you say to them?
A: I understand their dilemma. Sufficient and dependable income from savings is hard to come by in today’s ultra-low interest rate environment. I’m not a magician who can turn silver into an income-producing asset. But I believe it is a safe asset that can grow to many times its current price. I believe you will be able to sell it at a profit in the future that will more than beat the current rate of return of bonds or CDs, just as it has for the past 5 or 10 years. I think people should look at it as an alternative for some of their current savings type accounts.
Q: I feel like we’ve passed a tremendous milestone in the silver debate. The main theme you introduced years ago has had a complete airing. However, that takes us to the next part of your equation, which is your prediction of a dramatic price rise. Ever worry you could have miscalculated?
A: Sure I do. But the amazing thing is that, while I’ve always worried about being wrong, the more I study the situation, the more I am convinced that the price explosion is still ahead. It’s kind of weird, even though the price has moved dramatically higher over the past 10 years; the bullish case is more compelling than ever.
Q; All along the way you have exhibited great caution and care about the facts you’ve presented. For me that’s given you great credibility. It also gives me a lot of confidence in your forecasting. I know you don’t like to be put on the spot but where could silver go eventually?
A: The reason I’m always hesitant to mention specific prices is because I don’t know and I don’t like to write things that I’m unsure of. In the case of extreme future prices for silver, however, considering the dynamics of what could happen to prices in a shortage and short-covering panic, my hesitance is in picking too low of a price.
Q: Won’t higher prices cause silver substitutes to be used?
A: Sure, but that will take time to unfold. In a panic to the upside, there will be scant relief due to substitution in the short term.
Q: What if the big short has been covering its short position over the past weeks and months. Could they get this done without driving up the price?
A: To a certain extent, but please remember the price has already gone up and they have a lot more covering to do.
Q: Tell us again what happens if they stop shorting in the future?
A: The biggest price controlling mechanism will have stopped and we’re in a whole new era.
Q: Would you say we’re off to the races with silver now?
A: When we’re truly off to the races, you won’t have to ask me, as it will be obvious. The trick is seeing it just before they shoot the starting gun. That could be now.
Ted Butler
April 8, 2010
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1271170061.php
DHAWK
04-13-2010, 09:23 PM
Parallel lines fascinate me...
http://i1000.photobucket.com/albums/af126/Strawboss_2009/silver41310.jpg
Horizontal lines are interesting too.
Heres my meager chart, I'm betting on the top rail soon! :grin10:
soon!820
Strawboss
04-14-2010, 08:13 PM
Here is the link to this weeks The Silver Mining Report.
http://www.bullion-master.com/the-silver-mining_report-4.14-.10.pdf
lhslancers3270
04-14-2010, 08:37 PM
How can you chart a manipulated market?
Weatherman
04-14-2010, 09:03 PM
Here is the link to this weeks The Silver Mining Report.
http://www.bullion-master.com/the-silver-mining_report-4.14-.10.pdf
Thanks! I learned something I should have known, but I must have slept through much of 2008. :haha: Early in 2008, I posted the chart below in GIM to compare several miners. I excluded Hecla from the comparison precisely because of the risks from its substantial exposure to Venezuela. After seeing your analysis of Hecla's properties, I did more research and found that Hecla sold its Venezuela property in 2008. Although I still like PAAS and SLW best, I will have to look more closely at Hecla too.
866
Hawkeye
04-14-2010, 09:04 PM
How can you chart a manipulated market?
Pretty damn well...:biggrin:
It's not maniped 24/7
Is this a baited question for Got Goldies?:vollkommenauf:
Goldies
04-14-2010, 09:07 PM
Hawkeye, GG, my guru, Goldies Guru, sends his regards. He says he don't miss Katco.
I think GSS is the most manipulated of all Gold stocks.
http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/ll195/luckylegs10/4-14gss.jpg
lhslancers3270
04-14-2010, 09:15 PM
Thanks! I learned something I should have known, but I must have slept through much of 2008. :haha: Early in 2008, I posted the chart below in GIM to compare several miners. I excluded Hecla from the comparison precisely because of the risks from its substantial exposure to Venezuela. After seeing your analysis of Hecla's properties, I did more research and found that Hecla sold its Venezuela property in 2008. Although I still like PAAS and SLW best, I will have to look more closely at Hecla too.
866
Lots of volume easy in and out. My kind of woman.
lhslancers3270
04-14-2010, 09:16 PM
Pretty damn well...:biggrin:
It's not maniped 24/7
Is this a baited question for Got Goldies?:vollkommenauf:
That wasn't directed in your direction. Lots cry foul this $hit is manipulated yet think they can chart the sucker. That cannot be. It either trades freely or it don't.
Hawkeye
04-14-2010, 09:25 PM
That wasn't directed in your direction. Lots cry foul this $hit is manipulated yet think they can chart the sucker. That cannot be. It either trades freely or it don't.
I manage to catch a few waves on da sucker...why fight it? Peace Bro:553:
Goldies
04-14-2010, 09:27 PM
You can tell when someone is trying to manipulate something... Whatever you do, do not take any free kisses like Bogart does.
Especially if the dame is holding $30.
I can chart Boggey's reply.
lumpOgold
04-14-2010, 09:49 PM
here's my major tool for price prediction. http://cmsof.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/gifts-7.jpg
lhslancers3270
04-14-2010, 10:02 PM
I manage to catch a few waves on da sucker...why fight it? Peace Bro:553:
Hey if you can see with those glasses on you're a damn magician. Hats off to ya.:biggrin:
Master_Ho
04-14-2010, 10:41 PM
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell some physical silver when spot is $30.
I will sell......
And when it goes to $50?? $100????
You might want to get a head start - getting your leg behind you to kick your own ass!!
OK - that was a joke - but here's the thing..........I listen all the time to people saying when it gets to such and such a point, they will sell..............neither you nor anyone else with brains will sell if the market has taken off.........
I never set figures up - only figures down.
Right now I am up - roughly 45% - I will not sell till a) I need the cash or b) I see profit disappearing.........
Every time the metals go up - I raise the level to which I would sell on the way down.........and actually break it into 3 groups so I do not risk it all on a short-term move.......
But metals are going to go up for a very long time...........
This is NOT 1979-80.................trust me.............I was there in gold too......and sold at $825 the day before it plunged......!
This may rhyme - but I knew THEN it was a practice round for whats coming NOW!!!!
Cheers!!
lhslancers3270
04-14-2010, 11:02 PM
Good to see you Ho. I have a question though. B. Profit disappearing? Does 21.30 to 9.43 qualify? We have the benefit of hindsight and obviously Silver has recovered. Might not the next time. No one really knows.
lhslancers3270
04-14-2010, 11:04 PM
If anyone cares. Silver bottomed in 1993. That's 17 years ago.
Goldies
04-14-2010, 11:09 PM
hawkeye and friends, I was completely taken by surprise with this Gold and Silver rise. I did not expect it.
Master_Ho
04-14-2010, 11:31 PM
Good to see you Ho. I have a question though. B. Profit disappearing? Does 21.30 to 9.43 qualify? We have the benefit of hindsight and obviously Silver has recovered. Might not the next time. No one really knows.
Well, I am not sure I QUITE understand the question.........cause I need to know and average buy-in price........
In that case - my average silver buy-in (excluding numismatics) is $13.69...........so i would have ridden up to $21.30....and made note, as it started to drop, that the difference is $11.81 (at least my quick math - I haven't double-checked.)
So yes, I would have sold 1/3 each four dollars down (VERY generally speaking.....there are far more important factors at play here than technicals - tho I appreciate technicals - fundamentals are going to play a huge part in this next rally.)
Now - I just hope I asked the right question and that it made any sense.........and again, very generally speaking..........
Good to see you here - have really enjoyed your posts over the years.......
Cheers!
lhslancers3270
04-14-2010, 11:36 PM
Well, I am not sure I QUITE understand the question.........cause I need to know and average buy-in price........
In that case - my average silver buy-in (excluding numismatics) is $13.69...........so i would have ridden up to $21.30....and made note, as it started to drop, that the difference is $11.81 (at least my quick math - I haven't double-checked.)
So yes, I would have sold 1/3 each four dollars down (VERY generally speaking.....there are far more important factors at play here than technicals - tho I appreciate technicals - fundamentals are going to play a huge part in this next rally.)
Now - I just hope I asked the right question and that it made any sense.........and again, very generally speaking..........
Good to see you here - have really enjoyed your posts over the years.......
Cheers!
Just bustin' chops Ho. I don't think this whole thing ends w/o a major parabolic move. Sometimes it's good to question what you believe because you can always be wrong.
Master_Ho
04-14-2010, 11:49 PM
Just bustin' chops Ho. I don't think this whole thing ends w/o a major parabolic move. Sometimes it's good to question what you believe because you can always be wrong.
I have a lot of people who have invested with me - and I have put out a newsletter a couple of times a week since 1996.........and trust me, NO ONE questions me more than myself!!! (I also have a group of writers I read and online radio shows I listen to......and a few dozen articles I force myself to read - just to hear the other side.)
I would be demolished if I had set these folks down the wrong path!
On the other hand.......... everyone busts my chops
(I suspect cause I do that to them too - but all in play!)
.......so I am sort of immune!!!
:haha:
Strawboss
04-15-2010, 05:50 AM
There is no question in my mind that silver is manipulated. There are times when said manipulation really screws up a chart and makes the technicals seem ridiculous to even talk about. But, that is probably 10% of the time. The other 90% of the time it does trade freely (or so it seems). And, those times when it is manipulated creates pretty good entries afterwards.
There are of course 2 sides to the equation - technicals and fundamentals. I sleep well at night because the fundamentals say silver is going much, much higher no matter how much they manipulate the market. So, thats my "backdrop" so to speak. I use the technicals to try to time entries and exits on trading positions. Plus, I have always seen silver as being the ultimate challenge. If I can be successful trading silver - I can be successful trading any market. I have been involved in this market since shortly after 9/11, and my average is still substantially less than $10/oz (although it keeps rising).
Eat Beef
04-15-2010, 08:32 AM
Ho, I said some silver, not all of it.:biggrin:
I was all set to sell into $24 last time...it never got there, and I'm still kicking myself for missing that opportunity, as I would have had 5x the dry powder to spend on the bashing that followed.
jbilprophet123
04-15-2010, 05:50 PM
The way i see silver at this point is the more the time it spends in 18+- range the easier it will slive thro 19.48 barrier on the rise and higher it will go.
Quite possibly this time when gold goes above 1220 silver may as well be breaking above 21s..
When remains to be seen. Maybe next week or next 1 or 2 months. Once 1940s give the surge should be quick.
This week was first possible week when that could have happened. Did not ..
Let us see how the third and fourth week of April plays out.
lhslancers3270
04-15-2010, 05:57 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hz64hWng2vM
Strawboss
04-19-2010, 06:30 AM
http://i1000.photobucket.com/albums/af126/Strawboss_2009/silver41910.jpg
Nothing to worry about - it looks very positive.
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