Silver

[dosman]

stocks doing no good.

[King Of Budz]

Top might be in here. We'll see. I bought a little more ZSL on friday.

[anywoundedduck]

Silver could make a new high today, that still doesn't change my view for the short term. I think that we are seeing a trap, and the correction will only be more severe. Also the DOW does not have much further (~12,400) to go until it makes a top by my charts. The turnaround in the broad markets will help drive silver down.

Keep in mind I'm predicting this in the short term, and the second the charts turn back to the upside we will see new highs across the board.

And now you have called a top, but I don't think so. That there is a battle royal occurring in the silver pits is without a doubt. But Blythe is going to lose, because she used all of her resources this morning, has no ammo left. The pipeline is clogged with millions of ounces of worthless JPM paper. Deliveries start in about a week or so. As a result we are shortly going to see silver punch through $35, on its way to $50. I am looking for juniors to buy to take advantage of this facade of a pullback. Anyone got a recommedation? Have dry powder, will travel.

[King Of Budz]

As a result we are shortly going to see silver punch through $35, on its way to $50.

This rally is not the next leg up in the long-term bull market (YET). Gold has not yet confirmed the action in silver.

Almost everyone is expecting the metals to head higher, virtually non-stop. That is not the kind of market that you want to be buying into. Real, lasting bull market moves simply do not occur when bullish sentiment is running so high.

The last thing in the world you want to see right now is gold and silver continue to spike higher. That would be more bearish than bullish, short and long term! Remember when oil hit $147 and everyone was screaming for $200?

The technicals show metals (esp silver) are vulnerable to a sharp sell-off at nearly anytime.

Never fear though! This is just what I think. And the long-term technicals & fundamentals are better than ever as well know. There will be a lot of money to be made in metals in 2011 and beyond. This is just not the time to be loading up on pm stocks or etfs.

[jbilprophet123]

And now you have called a top, but I don't think so. That there is a battle royal occurring in the silver pits is without a doubt. But Blythe is going to lose, because she used all of her resources this morning, has no ammo left. The pipeline is clogged with millions of ounces of worthless JPM paper. Deliveries start in about a week or so. As a result we are shortly going to see silver punch through $35, on its way to $50. I am looking for juniors to buy to take advantage of this facade of a pullback. Anyone got a recommedation? Have dry powder, will travel.

AWD: What a great day we are having today!! Just look at copper, platinum, paladium etc..
On a day like this, gold above 1398 and 1400 and silver above 33.00 almost a$ from bottom. After such a huge gains in a row
Anyone not liking this has to be out of mind!!

Well as lately i had posted preservation of gains is also my prime motto now, even then i was unable to pull the trigger to book profits on my AGQ position.
Ofcourse volatility has increased and someone not wanting it should close positions here.

But in that case they should not be in PM sector to start with.
For so many years when we were waiting.. it will be very sad for all those staunch belvrs of PM fundamentals if they miss this ride cause of it is not real or too volatile concerns!!
People got tired of saying and seeing This is It!! but it will be very very sad if majority of them are missing when for the first time i am seeing signs of This is it!! in market action..

Well not me.. Let us see if majority of my gains evaporate with sub 27$ silver or we continue march higher :)

[jbilprophet123]

On the swing trading front minimum trailing stop loss for gold silver long position imho now should be 1392- of gold.
If it goes below that the preservation of gains trader in me may come alive for part of my position..

[AgShaman]

And now you have called a top, but I don't think so. That there is a battle royal occurring in the silver pits is without a doubt. But Blythe is going to lose, because she used all of her resources this morning, has no ammo left. The pipeline is clogged with millions of ounces of worthless JPM paper. Deliveries start in about a week or so. As a result we are shortly going to see silver punch through $35, on its way to $50. I am looking for juniors to buy to take advantage of this facade of a pullback. Anyone got a recommedation? Have dry powder, will travel.

Nope....Your recommendation will do just fine....I'll put a little twist on your dry powder ditty though...."Have Cool....Will Travel"....meaning: have your dry powder...and keep your cool awaiting next week's show.

Margins get tweaked by the Comex to perhaps garner info for Blythe, as to how many from the "opposition camp" will be planning on standing for delivery. The Psy-Op from the Wynter Benton Group was a ploy to attract smaller players (pawns and cannon fodder) to "lock up" contracts meant to "stand" physical....so that a group of traders could "pool" their positioning with more strength in hopes of securing one goal: They want a fat premium (cash settlement) and have gone to the lengths of showing their hand for all to see (including Blythe). If they can lock up a 25-30% cash settlement payday....their goal has been met and would consider it no big deal to follow up March with a shorting strategy like JPM. The rules on the Comex allow for this strategy of "organized extortion". Higher...is the intended target of the "long" paper traders...but perhaps only short term.

I would not be too trusting of the OI numbers (or any other kind for that matter) put out by the Comex from here on out...the stakes seem higher than normal...and the "Battle Royale" you speak of could very well result in some eye popping volatility.

I would normally be interested in using the opportunity to sell a portion of my stack used for trading...except for the fact that many of the planet's geopolitical storms erupting lately have me wondering if 2011 will be a year to bring a new high in silver prices. If that happens...maybe the rubber band could stretch a little more with late to the party exuberance...and force even further adjustments...like accounting for inflation (new millenium expansion of fiat currency printing). Until that true accounting takes place....these smallish "pullbacks" seem trivial.

If I can afford to "stand pat" and watch the show unfold....the reward seems worth the risk. Selling any physical in this timeframe would be more of just a re-allocation and diversification into mining shares that seem like good leverage plays...where I'm either under-exposed, or looking to finally take a position.

Good luck in Silver! :biggrin:

[prophet]

AWD: What a great day we are having Well not me.. Let us see if majority of my gains evaporate with sub 27$ silver or we continue march higher :)

jb

You wish so loud and clear! :biggrin:

[silverwood]

I think next week the shorts will begin to beat up silver.I think JPM might surprise people with amount of physical silver they will be able to come up with.

Here is a interesting read that could be explaining what going on in the Silver market...

http://goldharvest.blogspot.com/2011/02/reverse-raid-on-crimex-silver-targets.html

What makes sense to me is the wierd action in the mining shares. The action in the shares, as I interpret it, is they are selling off anticipating the raid on the gold price. Larry Edelman anyone? Also I can see those who are inside shorting the miners for the easy money to be made, its all BS in the long run so just keep buying the oversold weakness in your favorite shares and sell strenght as JS has always posited...GLTA

[silverwood]

Wow big raid on Crimex....oversold miners BRD buy @ $1.51, 200ma @ 2.49 also GBG and AEM getting close to buy zone.

[silverwood]

BRD is oversold but still in it's downtrend.
Here's a little DD from their site.

http://www.brigusgold.com/assets/2011-02-04%20brigus%20fact%20sheet.pdf

BTW: silver getting manhandled , I wonder if they will try to get it under $30 for expiration.

Hello buy LOW! sell high! I trade the charts, I just picked up some AEM @68.68, 200ma @ 68.20 anyway close enough for this one. AEM stock price moves like a butterfly.:cool2:

[prophet]

WOW! Whatta raid! As usual........

[StateofJefferson]

WOW! Whatta raid! As usual........

You are right, what a raid but look at the price of silver, currently at $32.18 USD. This is hardly a shabby price and at anything above $25.00 USD the PM silver miners will be minting money.

[prophet]

You are right, what a raid but look at the price of silver, currently at $32.18 USD. This is hardly a shabby price and at anything above $25.00 USD the PM silver miners will be minting money.

Exactly! Its not tto far from its high in case no one noticed........

[Hawkeye]

Did I miss somethin ...is Strawboss gone?

[SongSungAU]

Did I miss somethin ...is Strawboss gone?

I hope you get an answer. I've been wondering the same thing. Hasn't posted since the end of December, right?
Was it some New Years resolution or something?

[Zed]

Was it some New Years resolution or something?

Yeah the big girly swat gave up GIM fur New Year!!!!!! So that means we can tease him mercilessly and he kan't do nuthin about it without breaking his New Years thingymajib!

[Zed]

Did I miss somethin ...is Strawboss gone?

:biggrin:

YES! and YES!

[SongSungAU]

Yeah the big girly swat gave up GIM fur New Year!!!!!! So that means we can tease him mercilessly and he kan't do nuthin about it without breaking his New Years thingymajib!

LOL! You are so BAD, Zed.
Carry on.
:haha:

[fat panther]

Maybe I don't have any, or a poor, sense of humor, but I always appreciated the contributions Straw generously served up here. No editorializing or opinionating, just his sincere and honest contributions, FWIwasW. I miss him, and wish him the best where ever he is. If he didn't offer something, why did someone ask?

[Zed]

LOL! You are so BAD, Zed.
Carry on.
:haha:

:biggrin:

Strawboss has coutees! Neener, neener, neener....!

Actually he is sulking because we ain't done $19 yet!

[Zed]

Maybe I don't have any, or a poor, sense of humor, but I always appreciated the contributions Straw generously served up here. No editorializing or opinionating, just his sincere and honest contributions, FWIwasW. I miss him, and wish him the best where ever he is. If he didn't offer something, why did someone ask?

Awww crap..... you are not getting this are you!

[Johnboy]

March could be a good month...

http://news.coinupdate.com/huge-comex-silver-supply-squeeze-developing-0695/

February 28 is the first day of notice for delivery of the March contracts. Normally, parties not wanting delivery would have closed out their contract long before then. At the COMEX close on February 22, there were still 50,848 open March 2011 silver contracts, representing a potential liability to deliver 254.24 million ounces of silver by the end of March. The COMEX registered silver inventories available to cover deliveries totaled only 41.91 million ounces. Even including customer inventories that are stored at the COMEX, which are only eligible to deliver against COMEX contracts if the owners so choose (and most do not), the total is only 102.35 million ounces.

During COMEX trading hours on February 22, there were 124,000 March 2011 silver contracts traded—almost 2-1/2 times the number of open contracts! This is almost unprecedented volatility!

Here’s what I suspect happened to cause such a huge trading volume that day. The price of silver had been rising significantly for the past several trading days, reaching successive 31-year high price records (ignoring inflation). The US markets were closed on February 21 for Presidents’ Day. In trading in Asian and European markets early on February 22, the price of silver passed $34.00. If this price were maintained, then a large number of short sellers would get margin calls when the COMEX market opened on February 22. That could have forced leveraged short sellers to put up additional cash, physical silver, or to buy long contracts to close out their short positions. Any of these actions would likely have the effect of pushing silver prices up even higher.

It appears that a massive effort was mounted to drive drown COMEX silver prices on February 22 in order to avoid or reduce the margin calls to leveraged short sellers. This strategy was successful to a degree in that the price of silver dropped to just below $33.00 at one point on the COMEX. The temporary drop encouraged some owners of long positions to liquidate and take profits, further helping to push the price down.

However, the price suppression effort was not successful at pushing down the silver price below the February 18 COMEX close. Once it became clear that the manipulation was losing steam, buyers jumped back into the market on February 23. During COMEX trading hours, the price of silver reached as high as $33.75. Trading was extremely volatile, with 1% swings up and down occurring within a matter of minutes.

Several hedge funds, seeing how easy it was to make a short-term profit in silver squeezing COMEX short sellers last November and December, are likely to repeat the tactic with the maturing March contracts—but on a greater scale.

If the price of silver from now through the end of March were to rise by 30% again, that would put the price around $43. But, if there is a larger supply squeeze underway, the price could go much higher.

Already we are seeing several physical silver wholesalers using a two-tier silver spot price system. If you want to sell to them, they are using spot prices derived from COMEX and other markets. On the other side, if you wish to purchase physical metals from them, they are quoting a selling spot price that is 5-10 cents higher than their buying spot price.

The mainstream media is reporting that stock market prices and most commodities (with the exception of gold) fell on February 22 as a result of concerns about unrest in countries in the Middle East and North Africa that could lead to reduced supplies of petroleum. The unrest is sparked in part by soaring food prices (which the US government pretends is not occurring) in addition to political factors. But this news does not give you a clear picture of what is really going on in the silver (and gold) markets.

Expect both gold and silver prices to become much more volatile in the coming weeks. Don’t be surprised if silver prices move across a $2-3 range within a 24-hour period. In the past week, our company has enjoyed a significant increase in demand for physical silver. Thus far we have been able to make immediate or short-term delivery of most forms of silver. That could change quickly. At last report, the Perth Mint was telling buyers that they would have to wait until at least April to receive delivery of newly manufactured silver ingots.

Even though silver prices are now near 31-year highs and gold is near its highest prices ever, I still consider both of them to be at bargain levels compared to what I expect to see by the end of March. Silver will outperform gold, but both will do well versus the US dollar and all currencies.

[the wave]

Did I miss somethin ...is Strawboss gone?

He sold all his silver at 23 waiting for the 5 count down to 19 . Geez that idoit (elliot) wave .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbhWftjWrEE&feature=related

[SongSungAU]

Maybe I don't have any, or a poor, sense of humor, but I always appreciated the contributions Straw generously served up here. No editorializing or opinionating, just his sincere and honest contributions, FWIwasW. I miss him, and wish him the best where ever he is. If he didn't offer something, why did someone ask?

He definitely contributed to this place and I also miss reading his posts. I wasn't being ugly when I laughed at Zed's post. I didn't think Zed meant it in a bad way, just in a teasing way. It made me laugh.

[StateofJefferson]

Strawboss made a major contribution. He is now off doing other things.

[grooveboi]

Strawboss made a major contribution. He is now off doing other things.

Is he still putting out his newsletter on his site? I know he has gratuitously posted it here on occasion. I assume one could still find his thoughts there if one wanted.
www.bullion-master.com

<edit> it looks like he hasn't posted on his blog since Oct 19th but I don't have a subscription to his newsletter so maybe he still sends it out??
Groove

[jupitergold]

I like the feeling of silver and accumulated more April $35 calls. I think this is a decent window of bullish silver before the summer slow down. Technically, high hourly silver broke up and out of a nice $5 bull flag.

Anyone else with leveraged positions in silver with comments?

[scofield]

I've been long SLW Jan 12 $40 calls since Feb 1. Also long GDXJ May $40 calls, looking for $47-$50 before then.

[scofield]

That bull flag gives me short term target of $36.50, mid term target of $39.60. Let's see if TA works this time or not, LOL...