Silver

[TiKi]

I wasn't planning on going long but damn it hit my target of $34. Drop it like it's hot.

[DHAWK]

UH-OH!
7764

[Strawboss]

7766

It cant keep falling forever, right? :biggrin:

[lhslancers3270]

You would think so but Silver can be tough. There's an old top around 31-32 which should provide some support but unless this is a 4th with another upleg coming which brings us to new highs then this must be viewed as just the A leg in an ABC affair down.

[kiwi_envoy]

[/QUOTE]It cant keep falling forever, right? :biggrin:[/QUOTE]

at this rate by tomorrow it will be $27...absolutely unreal....well done on your short positions.

[Strawboss]

Hindsight has proven that I sold my ZSL too soon and bought AGQ too soon.
I am definitely expecting a rally. I think its safe to say that we are in the A downleg of an ABC correction.

[lhslancers3270]

Whatever the final low on this correction it has to be low enough to turn the public off to this sector. With the GSR still as low as it is Gold is the safer bet though we probably test $1425 in that market judging from this price action. $1480 gone I would look lower though we can rally from $1460. Psychologically another wipeout on Friday would give the public the weekend to think about 1% CD's over losing their behinds in the metals.

[scofield]

This looks like a wave 4 correction, just like 2006 but on much shorter time-frame, a week = a day. The first leg down "A" is very impulsive, subsequent chops within the range BCDE will trace out a triangle. That's my feeling anyway. This is good news if the correction ends on Martin Armstrong's 2011.45 day!

[lhslancers3270]

This looks like a wave 4 correction, just like 2006 but on much shorter time-frame, a week = a day. The first leg down "A" is very impulsive, subsequent chops within the range BCDE will trace out a triangle. That's my feeling anyway. This is good news if the correction ends on Martin Armstrong's 2011.45 day!

Know what? I don't think it matters whether this correction lasts 2 months or over a year. This break wherever it goes will most likely be the last decent buying opportunity we will get. Bull market corrections are always very violent and this one is no exception. Not sure what they will do with the Gold since the upmove was rather tame but I see some jokers are already claiming the Bull market in pm's is over. As in wait another 20 years. That is a good thing I think.

Fib retraces aside the obvious supports are 1425 1300 1250 1100. Stacking and really don't care about the prices at this point.

[scofield]

This is definitely a wave 4 type decline. wave A marks the low, wave C might mark the low in timing prespective.

Gold monthly RSI only hit levels of previous minor tops. This means to me we get a huge rally at the end of the summer into at least winter.

[Zed]

Barclays issued 1.2m oz in the last daily delivery notice, they are the biggest issuer month to date. Makes you wonder if there is a connection to SLV draw downs.

[Strawboss]

Zed - now that you are out of the cooler for a stretch, there is a question I have been wanting to ask you. Do you think the SLV has the metal or are they playing a very dangerous game? What about the various unallocated funds that investors think are holding their physical metal for them?


Barclays issued 1.2m oz in the last daily delivery notice, they are the biggest issuer month to date. Makes you wonder if there is a connection to SLV draw downs.

[Zed]

They have the metal, I am as certain as I can be of that. Having no metal and hiding behind some legal interpretation of the prospectus is one thing BUT actually issuing bar numbers removes any doubt or confusion that may exist about the intent of the SLV prospectus and it makes it clearly fraud should those bars not exist. Add to that the chance of one of those bar numbers turning up somewhere else and you have a risk that no employee would take. I mean would you commit a multi million dollar fraud by faking up those numbers for your boss? Why would you? You'd know that eventually someone redeeming a basket would have an issue with lack of silver and you'd end up doing 10 years... is a pay packet worth that? You'd also never work in the industry again! This is like the Perth Mint claims... people just will not behave that way for so little reward, not government employees and I doubt the salaried guys that make this run would be much more willing to go there. It also requires too much collusion from auditors through all the people involved in running SLV, that is alot of metal not to be there, hiding that fact would be very hard indeed.

JPM running accounts with no metal is one thing, that is an extension of normal pool account/unallocated practice but a publicly traded fund, with a prospectus, that publishes bar numbers, that is a whole new level.

Anyway, why would they be so open about inventory draw down etc if indeed it is all fraudulent?

Looks OK to me, not that I have ever owned it!

[Strawboss]

Martin Armstrongs latest essay on silver http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The%20Silver%20Crash%20of%202011%2005-06-2011.pdf

[Shortstack]

They have the metal, I am as certain as I can be of that. Having no metal and hiding behind some legal interpretation of the prospectus is one thing BUT actually issuing bar numbers removes any doubt or confusion that may exist about the intent of the SLV prospectus and it makes it clearly fraud should those bars not exist. Add to that the chance of one of those bar numbers turning up somewhere else and you have a risk that no employee would take. I mean would you commit a multi million dollar fraud by faking up those numbers for your boss? Why would you? You'd know that eventually someone redeeming a basket would have an issue with lack of silver and you'd end up doing 10 years... is a pay packet worth that? You'd also never work in the industry again! This is like the Perth Mint claims... people just will not behave that way for so little reward, not government employees and I doubt the salaried guys that make this run would be much more willing to go there. It also requires too much collusion from auditors through all the people involved in running SLV, that is alot of metal not to be there, hiding that fact would be very hard indeed.

JPM running accounts with no metal is one thing, that is an extension of normal pool account/unallocated practice but a publicly traded fund, with a prospectus, that publishes bar numbers, that is a whole new level.

Anyway, why would they be so open about inventory draw down etc if indeed it is all fraudulent?

Looks OK to me, not that I have ever owned it!

How much do you really know about auditors? If you think the auditor's send a staff accountant out to count each bar at every sub custodian, you are sadly mistaken. All they do is send a confirmation letter out to each custorian, saying something like "The trustees records show that you hold 1,112,000 Oz of silver on behalf of the trust. The sub custodian signs and returns the letter.

Know what? Look at the yearly audit fees listed in the SLV perspectus. About 70k a year. Now look at a perspectus of a Fidelity mutual fund, pick a small buy and hold fund that has a low AUM (assets under management). The cost is about the same.

So how can the audit fee for a small mutual fund be equal or greater than the audit fee of SLV? For the small buy and hold fund, the auditors don't spend much time testing transactions, spend even less time testing the assets (by sending audit confirms to the custodians holding the shares), and spend most of their time testing that the daily NAV per share calculations are correct, as well as testing the subscriptions and redemptions of the shareholders.

Same with the SLV, the audit team spends most of their time testing the massive volume of subscriptions and redemptions, as well as testing (maybe on a sample basis) the daily NAV per share calculations.

You can't even audit a 50 million dollar hedge fund for 70k a year, at least one that actively trades.

And the bar numbers? Well, we can get to that next, after you digest my whole point about the audit above....

[Zed]

How much do you really know about auditors? If you think the auditor's send a staff accountant out to count each bar at every sub custodian, you are sadly mistaken. All they do is send a confirmation letter out to each custorian, saying something like "The trustees records show that you hold 1,112,000 Oz of silver on behalf of the trust. The sub custodian signs and returns the letter.

Know what? Look at the yearly audit fees listed in the SLV perspectus. About 70k a year. Now look at a perspectus of a Fidelity mutual fund, pick a small buy and hold fund that has a low AUM (assets under management). The cost is about the same.

So how can the audit fee for a small mutual fund be equal or greater than the audit fee of SLV? For the small buy and hold fund, the auditors don't spend much time testing transactions, spend even less time testing the assets (by sending audit confirms to the custodians holding the shares), and spend most of their time testing that the daily NAV per share calculations are correct, as well as testing the subscriptions and redemptions of the shareholders.

Same with the SLV, the audit team spends most of their time testing the massive volume of subscriptions and redemptions, as well as testing (maybe on a sample basis) the daily NAV per share calculations.

You can't even audit a 50 million dollar hedge fund for 70k a year, at least one that actively trades.

And the bar numbers? Well, we can get to that next, after you digest my whole point about the audit above....

Yeah look Shorty they are all liars and thieves who are willing to go to jail for a wage. No doubt they are just like you, whatever the boss wants eh? Criminal or otherwise eh? Perth Mint are at it as well aren't they? No metal, all lying, all risking jail time for a govvy wage.... I mean you'd do it wouldn't you?

I barely read your posts so don't bother going on, you have already proven that you will lie to win a point, that placed you on the scrap heap a while ago.

[jupitergold]

Bought July 37 SLV puts for $3.05 each. Thinking silver soon returns to sub $35spot and it holds creating a double bottom or it caves and we go lower.

[CiscoKid]

..... that is alot of metal not to be there, hiding that fact would be very hard indeed.


I hear they do it with mirrors.

[Argentsum]

Some people feel that the silver crash was engineered by the COMEX margin hikes. If that is the case I owe a big thank you to those guys and everyone should understand that they did us a big favor.

Silver pricing had gone parabolic. Without intervention the pricing might have continued making new highs with the end result being a possible 50+% crash rather then the 25% correction we experienced. Oh sure, silver pricing took some damage, but this looks like a severe correction with excellent consolidation. This will give us good support levels as the price once again begins to climb.

A crash, on the other hand, would have seriously panicked investor sentiment.

Dont dis TPTB. Whether they know it or not, they've done us a great service.

[Strawboss]

Please continue...


How much do you really know about auditors? If you think the auditor's send a staff accountant out to count each bar at every sub custodian, you are sadly mistaken. All they do is send a confirmation letter out to each custorian, saying something like "The trustees records show that you hold 1,112,000 Oz of silver on behalf of the trust. The sub custodian signs and returns the letter.

Know what? Look at the yearly audit fees listed in the SLV perspectus. About 70k a year. Now look at a perspectus of a Fidelity mutual fund, pick a small buy and hold fund that has a low AUM (assets under management). The cost is about the same.

So how can the audit fee for a small mutual fund be equal or greater than the audit fee of SLV? For the small buy and hold fund, the auditors don't spend much time testing transactions, spend even less time testing the assets (by sending audit confirms to the custodians holding the shares), and spend most of their time testing that the daily NAV per share calculations are correct, as well as testing the subscriptions and redemptions of the shareholders.

Same with the SLV, the audit team spends most of their time testing the massive volume of subscriptions and redemptions, as well as testing (maybe on a sample basis) the daily NAV per share calculations.

You can't even audit a 50 million dollar hedge fund for 70k a year, at least one that actively trades.

And the bar numbers? Well, we can get to that next, after you digest my whole point about the audit above....

[Strawboss]

Zed - Various banks got people to pretend to be Vice Presidents signing foreclosure documents by the thousands (perhaps even hundreds of thousands). Banks have settled lawsuits where they were caught red handed charging storage fees on non existent metals. Banks have been discovered to massively short products they have sold to their customers - knowing they were garbage. Banks have been caught front running their own clients.

I understand your point, but, I would think you would concede that these banks are capable of some pretty scoundrel type actions - n'est pas?


Yeah look Shorty they are all liars and thieves who are willing to go to jail for a wage. No doubt they are just like you, whatever the boss wants eh? Criminal or otherwise eh? Perth Mint are at it as well aren't they? No metal, all lying, all risking jail time for a govvy wage.... I mean you'd do it wouldn't you?

I barely read your posts so don't bother going on, you have already proven that you will lie to win a point, that placed you on the scrap heap a while ago.

[jupitergold]

Sold my July puts for $3.85 and sitting out for now.

[King Of Budz]

next support is ~$30 - this is prime territory for trading if your quick (AGQ/ZSL). I wouldn't touch any silver stocks right now. Middle to end of August will be the time to load up IMHO.

[lhslancers3270]

Sold my July puts for $3.85 and sitting out for now.

Good trade.

[Zed]

Zed - Various banks got people to pretend to be Vice Presidents signing foreclosure documents by the thousands (perhaps even hundreds of thousands). Banks have settled lawsuits where they were caught red handed charging storage fees on non existent metals. Banks have been discovered to massively short products they have sold to their customers - knowing they were garbage. Banks have been caught front running their own clients.

I understand your point, but, I would think you would concede that these banks are capable of some pretty scoundrel type actions - n'est pas?

The robo signers where minimum wage stooges that did as they where told. They where largely ignorant and never likely to be held accountable for their actions, no doubt management had some sort of legal authority from the bank as dubious as that may have been.

As for the JPM unallocated metal accounts, as I pointed out, that behavior is much closer to general industry practice for unallocated metal and a much easier thing to pull off inside a company structure. SLV has numerous parties to contend with, shareholders, authorized participants (all of whom would need to be onboard if there was no metal!), custodians, SLV management and lastly the regulators. Well possibly them if ever a serious complaint was made LOL. Can you imagine what would happen if an authorized participant could not get a few baskets of metal when they chose to?

Listed companies, fraudulent prospectuses, faked bar numbers all carried out by career suits (who would know a lot better than your average robo signer) on mid tier wages with families and mortgages.... yeah... no I don't see them risking a stretch. Its not like JPM where the boss can buy you out of trouble and nobody goes for you, the worthless employee, personally. This is a publicly listed vehicle, you personally get hung out for breaches of these rules, too much is at stake in the wider picture and the SEC would want to defer any possible blame if it blew up --> they would go for you.

Yeah... no... I just don't buy the no metal story. After all what is the sum total of the argument ---> They are corrupt because we say they are and there is no metal because we say there isn't and they will not show it to me... damn it!!!!. That is like me saying the space shuttle doesn't exist because I believe your government is corrupt and I have not seen it.

I have not read any credible argument, that is fact based, to lead me to think that SLV has no metal.... jeeez even Butler thinks it is OK! Well, bar the shorting thing.

[krugger3]

What's the difference between shorting agq or buying zsl. For the record I have been shorting agq. I don't normally play etf's, but they have saved my bacon on two potentially big loss days. Today being one of them. Thanks.

[Strawboss]

Ouch. I have gotten trapped in my AGQ. What to do...what to do. If I bail - it will rally. If I offset it with ZSL - it will rally. If I sit and do nothing - silver will drop to $30.

[GoldToHold]

Shanghai margin increases - sound familiar?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shanghai-in-third-silver-margin-hike-in-month-2011-05-12

fwiw I grabbed a tiny bit of zsl yesterday. feels dirty and greedy. :p

[mach]

Ouch. I have gotten trapped in my AGQ. What to do...what to do. If I bail - it will rally. If I offset it with ZSL - it will rally. If I sit and do nothing - silver will drop to $30.

Seems like we both in same boat.....good luck to us...

[Zed]

This is why I buy physical, you can always make sinkers out of it and go fishing. :biggrin:

Looks a little bouncy to me FWIW

Soooooo look out below!

Sheeesh!