Silver

[dosman]

I do love the idea of pinetree warrants right now. how easy is it to open an account at another brokerage? will IB do canadian stocks?

[anywoundedduck]

I do love the idea of pinetree warrants right now. how easy is it to open an account at another brokerage? will IB do canadian stocks?

Interactive Brokers
Interactive Brokers is another firm that readers like because they allow U.S. citizens to economically trade Canadian equities, stocks from eight other countries as well as FOREX and bonds.

http://www.goldworld.com/report/how-to-buy-canadian-stocks/32

[dosman]

I am in the process of making an IB account. Look at the warrant prices and tell me they aren't the most beautiful thing you've ever seen....Leverage on top of leverage on top of leverage on top of leverage....
If we go to 6.50 within the next 400 or so days, the A's will get you over 40x return...
If you're more conservative, and just believe that we eventually will trade at current NAV, the B's are offering 5x leverage

[dosman]

a little lesson in value:

right now pinetree A warrants are trading for 16 cents for an exercise price of 6.50

that is about 40x return if the stock price can reach 6.50 in the next 413 days

I personally believe that there is at least a 20% probability that this will occur

20% = 1/5, 1/5* 6.50 is a fair price of 1.30 per warrant

In fact, you would have to believe that there is less than a 2.5% chance that pinetree capital will trade at 6.50 or higher in order to pass on the opportunity to buy the warrants. otherwise, you will have a positive Expected Value

[donkey]

I don't understand what you mean....

When you exercise a warrant you still have to pay the exercise price. You're not going to automatically get the share.

At 18c the A warrants (6.50 exercise price) would have to be exercised, and then resold at 6.68 to break even (not including broker fees).

So the gain from exercising the warrants, based on different share prices, would look like this:
Buy/Exercise/Share Price/Gain$(%)
.20/6.50/4.00/-.20(-100)
.20/6.50/6.50/-.20(-100)
.20/6.50/6.70/0
.20/6.50/7.00/+.30(+150)
.20/6.50/8.00/+1.30(+650)
.20/6.50/12.00/+5.30(+2650)

The 3.50 warrants, if you buy them at .75, like this....

.75/3.50/3.50/-.75(-100)
.75/3.50/4.25/0(0)
.75/3.50/5.00/+.75(+100)
.75/3.50/8.00/+3.75(+500)
.75/3.50/12.00/+7.75(+1033)


The A warrants expire Oct 12, the B warrants expire Jul 13.

Seems to me like 2 years is long time to pop back up past 4.25 in these markets. I lick my chops everytime I look at the Bs accumulating in my account :)

[dosman]

I don't understand what you mean....

When you exercise a warrant you still have to pay the exercise price. You're not going to automatically get the share.

At 18c the A warrants (6.50 exercise price) would have to be exercised, and then resold at 6.68 to break even (not including broker fees).

So the gain from exercising the warrants, based on different share prices, would look like this:
Buy/Exercise/Share Price/Gain$(%)
.20/6.50/4.00/-.20(-100)
.20/6.50/6.50/-.20(-100)
.20/6.50/6.70/0
.20/6.50/7.00/+.30(+150)
.20/6.50/8.00/+1.30(+650)
.20/6.50/12.00/+5.30(+2650)

The 3.50 warrants, if you buy them at .75, like this....

.75/3.50/3.50/-.75(-100)
.75/3.50/4.25/0(0)
.75/3.50/5.00/+.75(+100)
.75/3.50/8.00/+3.75(+500)
.75/3.50/12.00/+7.75(+1033)


The A warrants expire Oct 12, the B warrants expire Jul 13.

Seems to me like 2 years is long time to pop back up past 4.25 in these markets. I lick my chops everytime I look at the Bs accumulating in my account :)
thanks for the clarification, you are absolutely right

[Strawboss]

This chart is primarily why I have been quiet lately... It is a monthly chart for the US Dollar - and it looks like its gonna rip higher. Offsetting that of course is the situation in Europe and the steady demand from Asia for real metal...

Bernanke just sacrificed the equity markets today. A bloodbath beckons I think.

11188

[REO 54]

Bump......:dance:

[Weatherman]

This chart is primarily why I have been quiet lately... It is a monthly chart for the US Dollar - and it looks like its gonna rip higher. Offsetting that of course is the situation in Europe and the steady demand from Asia for real metal...

Bernanke just sacrificed the equity markets today. A bloodbath beckons I think.

Your warning had perfect timing! Great call!! Now we need to figure out when the tsunami is past and the all clear siren sounds!!!

[lhslancers3270]

IF Silver cannot hold 34-35 I think we see a new low for the move. Never a bad idea to average in on a 10% down day in a bull market. Unless of course Prechter is right this time. You care to take his side of the bet?:biggrin:

[King Of Budz]

How low do we go?

Here are some major support levels (in silver not slv etf):

- 34.88
- 30.52
- 29.05
- 23.84

Looks like we will all be getting a chance to buy some cheap silver in the coming weeks. I'm looking at AGQ, GPL, and SLW for med. to long term, and have been trading various etfs for swings in the short term (Have become a TNA/TZA pro).

[Gcubed]

How much silver will industry require while consumers are broke? How much slack can or will investors take up? :confused:

[lhslancers3270]

How much silver will industry require while consumers are broke? How much slack can investors take up? :confused:

I was counting on you taking some metal off the market to bail a guy out.:biggrin:

[silverwood]

How much silver will industry require while consumers are broke? How much slack can investors take up? :confused:

You really don't get it! There is an ARMY of little guys out waiting to buy cheap silver as this is not 1980 again. Also if silver is this no demand industrial metal why was copper down 4% and silver down 11% today?:banghead:

[Gcubed]

I was counting on you taking some metal off the market to bail a guy out.:biggrin:

I'll start buying silver again at 70:1. ;)

[lhslancers3270]

You really don't get it! There is an ARMY of little guys out waiting to buy cheap silver as this is not 1980 again. Also if silver is this no demand industrial metal why was copper down 4% and silver down 11% today?:banghead:

Well there is a rumor floating around that CCjoe's family made him sell everything today.

[Gcubed]

You really don't get it! There is an ARMY of little guys out waiting to buy cheap silver as this is not 1980 again. Also if silver is this no demand industrial metal why was copper down 4% and silver down 11% today?:banghead:

I've gotten it for decades. I was pulling 90% out of circulation in the 70's. You hang in there. :rolleyes:

[lhslancers3270]

I've gotten it for decades. I was pulling 90% out of circulation in the 70's. You hang in there. :rolleyes:

Where's that dude with the English accent that HS posted a couple of weeks back? You know the Twilight Zone thing. :biggrin:

[Gcubed]

Where's that dude with the English accent that HS posted a couple of weeks back? You know the Twilight Zone thing. :biggrin:

Haven't got a clue. Where is HS hiding?

[REO 54]

Haven't got a clue. Where is HS hiding?


HS....check d-lod...

[silverwood]

I've gotten it for decades. I was pulling 90% out of circulation in the 70's. You hang in there. :rolleyes:

Yes, that was smart and I was pulling out the 40% halves at that time also. What I don't understand, is facing what coming in the world monetary system, why you have the negative bais toward silver. BOTH silver and gold will do well! in the not too distant future. A rising gold to silver ratio makes buying silver that more attractive not less.

[Gcubed]

Yes, that was smart and I was pulling out the 40% halves at that time also. What I don't understand, is facing what coming in the world monetary system, why you have the negative bais toward silver. BOTH silver and gold will do well! in the not too distant future. A rising gold to silver ratio makes buying silver that more attractive not less.

I've no bias against silver. I use it as a tool to acquire more gold. I think rabid silver bugs have an inferiority complex. :cool:

[lhslancers3270]

I've no bias against silver. I use it as a tool to acquire more gold. I think rabid silver bugs have an inferiority complex. :cool:

I plan on buying Gramercy Park with a bag o junk 90 one day so you can laugh all ya wants.:biggrin:

[~BS]

hope this thing stays low, at least for a week. sellers are still asking for ridiculous prices.

Palladium is taking a major dump as well. I'll see if i can acquire some of that as well, assuming no premium.

[lhslancers3270]

hope this thing stays low, at least for a week. sellers are still asking for ridiculous prices.

Palladium is taking a major dump as well. I'll see if i can acquire some of that as well, assuming no premium.

Tulving man Tulving. Buy the 10's for 80 cents over spot 500 ounce minimum. Don't buy the special crap you will not get it back when we really run.

[King Of Budz]

Here's an interesting Nasdaq/Silver analog from http://marketanthropology.com



Here is an update of the daily Silver/Nasdaq 2000 analog from last weeks note (see Here). This chart was created intraday ~ 9:45 EST 9/22. The analog had a target for SLV ~ 36 for this week. I sold my respective ZSL and GLL positions this morning with the expectation that silver and gold should firm in the coming sessions and make one last attempt at a rebound high in the coming weeks.

To the degree that the markets have been highly correlated coming into the Fall, I would expect the equity indices to also firm in the coming sessions. When these correlations will weaken is anyones guess at this point - but I would expect that a resolution directive on the European front would go a long way to differentiating asset class relationships going forward.

As always - stay frosty.

11211

[lhslancers3270]

One big difference between this and the Nas Bubble Top is the sentiment. We are not near an important top in the metals. Can we see much lower prices now? Sure but this is not 1980.

[~BS]

Tulving man Tulving. Buy the 10's for 80 cents over spot 500 ounce minimum. Don't buy the special crap you will not get it back when we really run.

generic 10toz bars suck. i don't pay more than spot for those.

If the prices stay low, the teeth gnashing begins and people come to their senses. Right now, some people still want 30x face for junk and $44 for SAEs. I offered a guy 28.5x face on a bag of $100 junk last week, which he declined. This week, all of a sudden, he made a mistake and wants to accept my offer. Thinks i was born yesterday or what?

[TimoneX]

26x face for 90% halfs and a shade under $40 for silver eagles here in central MI. I'm nibbling a little today.

[prophet]

Maund was spot on

Originally published September 18th, 2011

Silver has fallen back over the past week as expected, and although its uptrend from late June has now failed, which is viewed as significant, it managed to hold up above nearby support which may generate a bounce early next week. However, this should not be a cause for celebration by silver longs, as overall the picture for silver continues to look precarious in the extreme. We can see why on the year-to-date chart below, which shows that silver appears to be completing the B-wave of a large 3-wave A-B-C decline, the 3rd wave of which, believed to be imminent, is likely to be really severe and will devastate silver longs.



On its 6-year chart silver looks like it is completing a classic large top formation. First it rose vertically to hit its most overbought levels late in April since the good old days of the Hunt brothers back in 1980. Then a panic selloff hit, triggered ostensibly by hiked margin requirements (of course, its being insanely overbought had nothing to do with it), all of which was accompanied by the huge volume characteristic of a top. Lastly, the johnny-come-latelies are corralled into silver by proliferating cheerleaders to drive the weak rally back towards the highs that we have seen over the past couple of months. There is just one instalment left to go, the drop down to the support shown at the lower boundary of the top area, the failure of that support, and the final devastating plunge that leaves hordes of silver speculators hung up in the large top area and smarting from massive losses. clivemaund.com subscribers are prepared for this with our Complete Toolbox for Capitalizing on a Gold & Silver Plunge.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/sep192011_silver.html