Silver

[Strawboss]

Your warning had perfect timing! Great call!! Now we need to figure out when the tsunami is past and the all clear siren sounds!!!

I will be waiting for you to tell me when the bottom is in :biggrin:

[platinumdude]

So how low is that devastating low? $20? 13?

[lhslancers3270]

So how low is that devastating low? $20? 13?

Around 25 bucks.

[platinumdude]

Around 25 bucks.

Beep...Beep....Beep :w00t:

[lhslancers3270]

Beep...Beep....Beep :w00t:

I don't see it getting that low TBH. 20 and 13 are crazy.

[Weatherman]

I will be waiting for you to tell me when the bottom is in :biggrin:
I will be surprised if silver can close below $30.
:hahaha: For the record, however, I have already been surprised several times so far this week, so DYODD!

This chart is through the plunge yesterday, but it does not yet show today's carnage. The low so far today is reasonably close to the bottom of channel line, which is now at $30:

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[Strawboss]

First a look at the DAILY Chart:

11234

Now a look at the WEEKLY Chart:

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I bought some AGQ at $118.00 and would look to add if silver drops down to the $27ish area.

I think they are going to try to squeeze as many people out of silver as they can - this is their last chance to cover their shorts. Bart Chilton was supposed to deliver a message this week - notice he hasnt?

[Weatherman]

Bart Chilton was supposed to deliver a message this week - notice he hasnt?
It could be that the silence in the message he did not deliver is the best description of what the CFTC is doing. :banghead:

Snip:

"The draft final rule on position limits, as currently written, is extremely weak," said Sen. Bernie Sanders, a staunch critic of the CFTC.

"At a time when the American people are experiencing extremely high oil and gas prices, this proposal will do little or nothing to lower prices and it will not eliminate, prevent or diminish excessive speculation as required by the Dodd-Frank Act," he said.

More at: Watchdog backs down on commodities rules (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/22/us-financial-regulation-limits-idUSTRE78L11P20110922)

[lhslancers3270]

Straw your mid high 20's target looks pretty close if you assume A equals C but there is a possibility we get an extension like 1.38 times 17. That yields around 23. We'll see I like 25-30 to accumulate phys.

[Eat Beef]

25- 30 is close enough to accumulate the shiney.

I'm looking to call it a little closer than that and use calls. Personally, I think this thing could go back to 9 bucks if Burnum doesn't break out the helicopters.

Come on Ben, we're counting on you!

[Curtman]

25- 30 is close enough to accumulate the shiney.

I'm looking to call it a little closer than that and use calls. Personally, I think this thing could go back to 9 bucks if Burnum doesn't break out the helicopters.

Come on Ben, we're counting on you!


For What! Benjerk was the one who set this in motion with his puke statements. Sure glad I had the most of the miners off and held a long position on Silvercorp. The shorts trying to ease out of it have limited my downside to under 10% and I am looking to bring it donw on monday if it starts out lower. I figure we have seen the worst now, Something is going to have to give in some form of concessions, either QE3 or whatever we are really up to. Europe is ready to burn so that will bring some easing thare and some assurance to the markets. For a while anyway. Would like to trade some physical au to ag but nowhere I can get an even swap.

[prophet]

Maund was spot on

Originally published September 18th, 2011

Silver has fallen back over the past week as expected, and although its uptrend from late June has now failed, which is viewed as significant, it managed to hold up above nearby support which may generate a bounce early next week. However, this should not be a cause for celebration by silver longs, as overall the picture for silver continues to look precarious in the extreme. We can see why on the year-to-date chart below, which shows that silver appears to be completing the B-wave of a large 3-wave A-B-C decline, the 3rd wave of which, believed to be imminent, is likely to be really severe and will devastate silver longs.



On its 6-year chart silver looks like it is completing a classic large top formation. First it rose vertically to hit its most overbought levels late in April since the good old days of the Hunt brothers back in 1980. Then a panic selloff hit, triggered ostensibly by hiked margin requirements (of course, its being insanely overbought had nothing to do with it), all of which was accompanied by the huge volume characteristic of a top. Lastly, the johnny-come-latelies are corralled into silver by proliferating cheerleaders to drive the weak rally back towards the highs that we have seen over the past couple of months. There is just one instalment left to go, the drop down to the support shown at the lower boundary of the top area, the failure of that support, and the final devastating plunge that leaves hordes of silver speculators hung up in the large top area and smarting from massive losses. clivemaund.com subscribers are prepared for this with our Complete Toolbox for Capitalizing on a Gold & Silver Plunge.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/sep192011_silver.html

tryingtocatchbreathe*

i am so so glad i sold AGQ at $213 after reading this.............. :s10:

WOW! What a DRoopppppppp!

Wheres Larry? Hes vindicated! :smile:

[prophet]

CME Group Raises Comex Gold Margins By 21.5%, Silver Margins By 15.6%

23 September 2011, 4:55 p.m.
By Debbie Carlson
Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/

(Kitco News) - The CME Group is raising the margins needed to trade Comex gold and silver futures are being increased by 21.5% and 15.6%, respectively, and the change will take effect after the close of business on Monday, the exchange said late Friday in a press release.

The exchange is also raising copper futures margins by 17.6%.

The move by the CME Group to raise the margin needed – also known as performance bonds – to trade gold, silver and copper futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange comes as prices for the metals plunged during the past two days as part of a sell off in financial markets in general. The CME Group is the parent company for the Comex and Nymex.

The CME Group raised margins in other markets on Thursday and on Friday it also announced higher margins for long-term U.S. Treasury bond futures.

[Strawboss]

I actually prefer when they knock the snot out of silver in a relatively short period of time. Gets all the pain out of the way quickly. Its much better than the slow death by a 1000 cuts.

23-25-30 - what difference does it make in the big picture? There is no way silver goes back down to $9ish - not even close. This price decline is offering a TREMENDOUS buying opportunity to those smart enough to see it for what it is (and there are many of those types of people out there).

Unfortunately - there will be those that will be in a panic to sell their physical silver in the coming days/weeks. Its unfortunate because this is the time they should be buying - NOT selling. The biggest gains are ALWAYS had by those with the guts to buy when everyone else is selling. I dont know about you, but, I was buying today - and will buy more if price drops another 10% from here. I would assume that any dips into the $20's will be short lived buying opportunities.

[lightcycler]

In the above weekly chart the 0.618 and the previous fourth wave are both in the 26.5 area. Very high probability bottom on both counts. Combined should be darn near bullet proof.

[slowtrain]

I actually prefer when they knock the snot out of silver in a relatively short period of time. Gets all the pain out of the way quickly. Its much better than the slow death by a 1000 cuts.

23-25-30 - what difference does it make in the big picture? There is no way silver goes back down to $9ish - not even close. This price decline is offering a TREMENDOUS buying opportunity to those smart enough to see it for what it is (and there are many of those types of people out there).

Unfortunately - there will be those that will be in a panic to sell their physical silver in the coming days/weeks. Its unfortunate because this is the time they should be buying - NOT selling. The biggest gains are ALWAYS had by those with the guts to buy when everyone else is selling. I dont know about you, but, I was buying today - and will buy more if price drops another 10% from here. I would assume that any dips into the $20's will be short lived buying opportunities.

Just a heads up, on my visit to our local coin dealer yesterday I found myself waiting in a line-up (never seen this before). So while I'm

waiting I'm watching, all buyers for the time I was in there with much more silver than gold leaving the store(money terms). My wife

saw the irony in the situation with the prices dropping/demand rising, go figure.

[Weatherman]

Trader Dan has an interesting chart showing two sets of Fibonacci levels of interest. You can visit his page to see his chart (http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/09/detailing-monthly-silver-chart.html), or read the same information copied below:

I am using two sets of Fibonacci retracement levels to do this. The first originates from the bottom in the silver market made back in late 2008 when QE1 was first announced. That is in blue. The second originates from the breakout point late last year when silver embarked on its stunning run from down near $20 all the way to $50 before it sold off. That is in red.

Note that if we use the latter set (in red), silver has violated all of the major Fibonacci retracement levels except for the last one, the 75% retracement level. That comes in near the $28.50 level.

It just so happens that this level is fairly close to the more significant 50% retracement level of the entire rally from 2008. That comes in near $29.22 (in blue).

Also note that there was a bit of a pause in the silver move higher over a two month interval in NOvember and December 2010 that hovered in that same general area. This is a potential support level for the metal. If silver can recapture $30 and then $32.50, today's low might be as low as we get. If it cannot and fails at today's low, then the band between $29.22 - $28.50 will come into play.

If the market were to fail there, it will then have potential to retrace the entire movement higher from last year with only the $24.30 region to prevent that.



If silver opens lower next week and then closes higher, the bullish candle that day could mark at least a short term bottom. My hope is that silver will not close much lower than $30. The chart below reinforces that target. I have drawn a correction channel, and also an Andrew’s Pitchfork using the high April close, the low May close, and the high September close. All my chart data is basis the most active futures contract. The bottom of channel coincides with the pitchfork mid line near $30. If silver closes significantly lower than $30, then the junction (now at $22) of the decade long bullish channel and the pitchfork lower rail becomes a possible target.

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[lhslancers3270]

IF we can manage to run through 27-28 on the downside remember that 25 is 50% of the highest selling price.

[Strawboss]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qtp1i-z4AEY&feature=related

Thanks to History Student for discovering this video. A must watch in my opinion.

[Weatherman]

Thanks to History Student for discovering this video. A must watch in my opinion.
That video is very well done, and I highly recommend watching it too. There are two points that would have been good to include in the video. First, as the world economy continues to stumble downhill toward a global economic depression (while printing enough fiat to insure it will be an inflationary depression), the amount of new construction will be reduced. That reduced level of worldwide industrial output will require less base metals, so the amount of mining for base metals will also be substantially reduced. Since approximately 70% of silver production is byproduct from base metal mining, that portion of silver supply will be reduced along with the cutbacks in base metal mining. Silver consumption from industry will probably reduce a little too, but not as much as the supply reduction from smaller byproduct of base metal mining. Meanwhile, the continued "printing" of additional fiat to feed the global machine will insure that silver demand for investments continues to grow at a rapid rate. The net result will be less supply of silver available to meet increasing demand, and that can only drive silver higher.

The second point is that the banksters have an unchecked power to drive prices lower to force gamblers who bet on rising momentum in the markets out of their positions. The bankster backed plunge in metal prices this past week clearly demonstrated that power is not being limited by the toothless clown called CFTC. However, the banksters continue to have an insurmountable problem with investors, and nations, that want to accumulate physical metals as protection from the high inflation that will result from unlimited printing of fiat. Since the banksters are the only shorts, and since they cannot push investors out of the markets because lower prices only make it possible for investors to buy more, the banksters are stuck with a problem they cannot control. As investors continually increase their ownership of physical, the banksters will be forced eventually to cover their shorts at much higher prices to avoid having to deliver metal they do not have. For now, the banksters still have the ability to pick the pockets of the gamblers and to increase price volatility through coordinated market manipulation to the downside. However, that increased volatility is much like the banksters punching the proverbial tar baby because the banksters keep getting stuck in deeper to the investors each time they steal from the gamblers. Sooner or later, the banksters will be unable to avoid default from inability to deliver the physical demanded by investors, and then the price of real metal will far surpass any limitations that banksters can put on paper. The future price of silver will be much, much higher than it is now.

[Eat Beef]

For What! Benjerk was the one who set this in motion with his puke statements. Sure glad I had the most of the miners off and held a long position on Silvercorp. The shorts trying to ease out of it have limited my downside to under 10% and I am looking to bring it donw on monday if it starts out lower. I figure we have seen the worst now, Something is going to have to give in some form of concessions, either QE3 or whatever we are really up to. Europe is ready to burn so that will bring some easing thare and some assurance to the markets. For a while anyway. Would like to trade some physical au to ag but nowhere I can get an even swap.


Come on, Curt, you know these guys are snakes and can't be trusted. Of course he did it, it's just a straight right to set up the big left hook (QE 3, or whatever number we're on now).

However, if I didn't have confidence Burnem would fire up the presses, I'd be scared to death right here...

[Eat Beef]

For the record, Boss, I'm a buyer here (or shortly, anyway) as well. IOW, I don't think we see 9.

The $9 is if the FRB sits on its hands, which we all think is impossible. I know everyone thinks we KNOW they won't, but I'm discounting a 1% chance.:biggrin:

[lhslancers3270]

For the record, Boss, I'm a buyer here (or shortly, anyway) as well. IOW, I don't think we see 9.

The $9 is if the FRB sits on its hands, which we all think is impossible. I know everyone thinks we KNOW they won't, but I'm discounting a 1% chance.:biggrin:

9 bucks is just ridiculous. It is amazing to me how quickly the sentiment can turn in these markets. Everyone knows bull market corrections are a sight yet every time we get one some people think it is all over. As for Gold I guess we will see some kind of correction in this bull market like we saw in the mid 1970's from 200-100 but I do not see it coming off of a $1925 number. Much higher possibly but not yet.
IF they can get this market lower it is conceivable they can push it under 25 but take a look at the long term chart and see how much work we already did in the area of 20 bucks.

[Curtman]

9 bucks is just ridiculous. It is amazing to me how quickly the sentiment can turn in these markets. Everyone knows bull market corrections are a sight yet every time we get one some people think it is all over. As for Gold I guess we will see some kind of correction in this bull market like we saw in the mid 1970's from 200-100 but I do not see it coming off of a $1925 number. Much higher possibly but not yet.
IF they can get this market lower it is conceivable they can push it under 25 but take a look at the long term chart and see how much work we already did in the area of 20 bucks.

Asian sat by and let the anglos drive down their dollar holdings, I don't think they are going to let this go so easy. They may let them drive it to what appears to be a floor and then they are coming for the goods.

The word I had Friday was investors on the floor were chompin at the bit trying to decide when to get long gold and silver, no mention of Plat. I think they will come in with conviction this week. There is far more money to be made in the shares than the metal itself for now. Lots of the lemmings have purged their holdings and there is less leverage in the markets.

[StateofJefferson]

Margin increases for silver and gold announced Friday evening to go into effect on Monday. What a surprise!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/case-closed-cme-hikes-gold-silver-copper-margins

[StateofJefferson]

Here is the latest on silver form Clive Maund. He is gloating and suggesting that Silver Wheaton could see $2.50 - $3.00 again. I don't think so.

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67

[AgAuGal]

Here is the latest on silver form Clive Maund. He is gloating and suggesting that Silver Wheaton could see $2.50 - $3.00 again. I don't think so.

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67

his article and projections for silver and Ag miners are disturbing. He acknowledges he is short silver in one form or another. Under $20 silver wwould be disappointing. Still wonder how we will recognize when it is time to get out???? Sure has been alot of cheerleading going on for the metals. Time to sell Ag???? Comments? We have been on this roller coaster for many years so I'm not suggesting people sell their positions juwst interested in feedback on if this is just another shakeout or is it time to sell on the sleighride down to $3....

[lhslancers3270]

Even the longest term bulls begin to doubt.

[Weatherman]

Silver obliged with closing above $30 as projected, but what's next for this week? My guess is that the next few days will be a replay of the 2nd week rebound following the decline into early May. The pattern shown in the oval below reflects relatively strong buying in the Monday and Tuesday after the decline, but renewed selling in the following days. My interpretation is based on MP analysis, where MP is short for Manipulation Projection. After the Banksters ramp up their paper short positions to drive the markets lower, they try to cover as many shorts as possible on Monday and Tuesday so their tracks will be less obvious in the Commitment of Traders report based on a snapshot of the closing positions on Tuesday. I will not be surprised if prices rebound on Tuesday (as the Banksters continue to cover shorts), and then drop again over the following days of Wednesday through Friday (when the Banksters could ramp up their shorts to do it all again). My MP based viewpoint is that the carnage could end on Friday 9/30, or on the following Monday. After that final bout of the Banksters harvesting long positions abandoned by discouraged gamblers who bet that silver will rebound quickly from current levels, the Banksters would be ready to cover as many shorts as possible in early October. There is speculation that in October, the CFTC may take long overdue action on position limits. If the CFTC does plan to actually do something useful in limiting the abuse of the silver market through manipulation, then preparation for that event could well explain the timing and the severity of the recent purge of the silver and gold markets by the Banksters.

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[prophet]

The CFTC will never do anything to the TPTB.
Wearing the same pants.........