PDA

View Full Version : Richard Russell - Wild Speculation in Gold Lies Ahead



phideaux
10-15-2010, 09:08 PM
Richard Russell - Wild Speculation in Gold Lies Ahead

With gold hitting new all-time highs, in his latest commentary, the Godfather of newsletter writers Richard Russell stated, “The negative comments about gold will only serve to make the gold bull market that much stronger. In this business, there is nothing more powerful than a primary bull market that has been denigrated, spat at, and held back for years.”
October 15, 2010

“I learned from George Schaefer that big bull markets almost always end with a speculative explosion. We had not seen that kind of action in the bull market that started in June, 1949. I was convinced that a speculative third phase of the bull market lay somewhere ahead. For that reason I was convinced that the bull market was not over.”

“Today I am taking the same stand regarding the gold bull market. The gold bull market will not end with a fizzle and a whimper. It will end with intense speculation and widespread interest from the funds and the public. We haven't seen that kind of activity yet, but I'm convinced that a period of wild speculation in gold lies somewhere ahead.”

“This is why I continue to beg my subscribers to load up with gold. As I see it, we are nearing a period of intense speculation that will be beyond anything seen before by the last three generations of Americans. Ironically, more money (will be) made in the final explosion in gold than was made during the first two phases combined.”

“Great bull market are seen maybe once or twice in a lifetime. The current "stealth" gold bull market has sneaked up on most Americans. The very phrase, "gold bull market" is sneered at by most analysts today. In fact, most of the comments on gold today come in the form of warnings; "Gold is too high." "Gold is in a bubble." "Gold will sink back below 1000." "Gold is a fool's play."

“Nonsense. Gold is moving ever-closer to it's climactic speculative third phase. The negative comments about gold will only serve to make the gold bull market that much stronger. In this business, there is nothing more powerful than a primary bull market that has been denigrated, spat at, and held back for years.”

As long as we continue to have the mainstream media negative on gold, it will keep adding fuel to this bull market.

Eric King
KingWorldNews.com
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/10/15_Richard_Russell_-_Wild_Speculation_in_Gold_Lies_Ahead.html

dacrunch
10-16-2010, 11:53 AM
“Nonsense. Gold is moving ever-closer to it's climactic speculative third phase. The negative comments about gold will only serve to make the gold bull market that much stronger. In this business, there is nothing more powerful than a primary bull market that has been denigrated, spat at, and held back for years.”

Don't like that reference, personally. It implies an "overshoot" followed by a "crash".

I just want "justified valuation" (a lot higher than now, Adrian Douglas's $60k would suit me just fine! :biggrin: )... and then "remaining at a plateau"... so I can sleep nights... :sleepy13:

Haole
10-16-2010, 08:57 PM
They can't pump interest rates up to 15 or 20% this time around. There will be no "crash" on the other side whatever happens I submit.

Max Keiser has some interesting things to say about bank holidays, revaluation of gold, and the U.S. dollar being "worth" a fraction of it's previous purchasing power when the system comes back online in his most recent installment from RT.

Zed
10-16-2010, 09:10 PM
Don't like that reference, personally. It implies an "overshoot" followed by a "crash".

I just want "justified valuation" (a lot higher than now, Adrian Douglas's $60k would suit me just fine! :biggrin: )... and then "remaining at a plateau"... so I can sleep nights... :sleepy13:

Yeah... but you know it is going too "overshoot" & "crash". The best way to make gold unattractive as an alternate asset class is to encourage massive volatility, run up and crash... expect a series of these before the final one. Each time should buy a year or two peace for establishment, the final one should bury gold for another 25 years. Lots of fun to be had before then... gold she is a good girl, but not a popular one, in the end they will work out a way around her.... for a while... then the 2050 bull run will begin!

Aussie
10-16-2010, 09:25 PM
... gold she is a good girl . . .

I'll stick with her . . . . :36_3_16:

andial
10-16-2010, 10:22 PM
then the 2050 bull run will begin!

2030......

Zed
10-16-2010, 10:34 PM
I was figuring this ends 2020/5 then we have 25 year bear and so on.... 2030? Is that a Armstrong number or summin?

andial
10-16-2010, 10:43 PM
IMHO I'm figuring this ends 2012 then a close to twenty year consolidation then a new bull run in 2030, or so.

Zed
10-16-2010, 10:45 PM
IMHO I'm figuring this ends 2012 then a close to twenty year consolidation then a new bull run in 2030, or so.

That soon huh? Why? I was figuring that'd be just past half time, mebe a big dip then... but over?!

andial
10-16-2010, 10:55 PM
Well the rally started in 2000 so we have been at it for some time. The seventies rally started late in the sixties and lasted till 1980 so going by that we have a couple of years left. The big dip happened in 2008 just like 1975/76 and the most explosive years are right ahead. That is how I am playing it.

Ragnarok
10-16-2010, 11:06 PM
I am hoping/holding out for the "Freegold" outcome - a rise to the stratospheric heights that define gold's value in collapsing unbacked paper/electronic currencies, followed by a freely floating gold price in those currencies, which instead of coming back down will remain high as gold returns to its historic role as a wealth asset and fiat is left to find its intrinsic value somewhere near zero.

R.

Zed
10-17-2010, 12:06 AM
Well the rally started in 2000 so we have been at it for some time. The seventies rally started late in the sixties and lasted till 1980 so going by that we have a couple of years left. The big dip happened in 2008 just like 1975/76 and the most explosive years are right ahead. That is how I am playing it.

The trouble is the last bull was constrained until the French broke it free. It started at a government level I guess... hmmmmm, I dunno if we can compare directly. 2012 is not a lot of time to get a handle on this pile of garbage. I dunno... mebe... could be spectacular!

dacrunch
10-17-2010, 04:53 AM
Aren't "perennial commodity bull markets" supposed to last 19 years or so? Seem to remember that...

Zed
10-17-2010, 05:30 AM
Aren't "perennial commodity bull markets" supposed to last 19 years or so? Seem to remember that...

Yes... 18-20 depending on who is talking.

Sindgefallen
10-17-2010, 10:49 AM
Aren't "perennial commodity bull markets" supposed to last 19 years or so? Seem to remember that...

That is a good point. If we take that 19 year number and subtract from 1980 we get 1961. From a silver perspective we can see the period of fundamentals building with the free market divergence from government official values and the price of silver on the FREE market drove the .gov to remove silver from our coinage. Similar to copper and nickel today.

By that measure one could say that the bull started when silver started to break free BUT it is hard to tell because the amount of government suppression in the 50's and 60's was tremendous and overt so it may be hard to truly filter out if this is accurate.
JMHO.

dacrunch
10-17-2010, 12:54 PM
That is a good point. If we take that 19 year number and subtract from 1980 we get 1961. From a silver perspective we can see the period of fundamentals building with the free market divergence from government official values and the price of silver on the FREE market drove the .gov to remove silver from our coinage. Similar to copper and nickel today.

By that measure one could say that the bull started when silver started to break free BUT it is hard to tell because the amount of government suppression in the 50's and 60's was tremendous and overt so it may be hard to truly filter out if this is accurate.
JMHO.

Probably better to check cycles on commodities other than monetary metals...

andial
10-17-2010, 02:08 PM
Probably better to check cycles on commodities other than monetary metals...

I can't seem to post the chart but raw materials made peaks in 1950 and 1980. I also remember hearing that Gold traded for 75 bucks an ounce in Switzerland in the late 40's after the war.