Super Force Signals
A Leading Market Timing Service
We Take Every Trade Ourselves!
Weekly Market Update Excerpt
Sept 28, 2012
US Dollar Bear Flag Chart
- The dollar has hit my initial downside target. To ascertain what’s next, I use three important charts to create a financial roadmap.
The big news in the commodities world lately is $10/barrel drop in the
oil price in the last several days. The decline was initially blamed on
Fed-Ex lowering its outlook for global growth and industrial production
when it reported its latest quarterly earnings. The world’s second
biggest package delivery company forecast a continued slowdown in global
trade. Reports that Saudi Arabia is keeping production high to drive oil
prices lower were also blamed.
The actual reason for the drop in crude oil was likely political; with
an upcoming election, the current administration is pulling as many
strings as it can to keep voters happy and remain in office. Gasoline
prices above $4/gallon and crude oil above $100/barrel isn’t
politically acceptable so close to a major election.
Sep 25, 2012
- The gold consolidation may already be over. Please click here now. On this one month chart, you can see that since QE3 was announced on September 13, gold has essentially moved sideways. That “trading box” is likely a consolidation pattern.
- Please click here now. You are looking at a two day chart for gold. A small but significant head & shoulders pattern has formed, implying that the gold price will rise above $1800, before a correction occurs.
- Many technical indicators and oscillators are overbought on the daily chart, but they can stay that way, while gold marches higher.
- Investors who hold solid core positions in gold, silver, and gold stocks should stand their ground. Traders could lighten up a bit, in the $1775-$1825 price area.
- Please click here now. A beautiful channel has formed on the GDX daily chart. A “non-confirmation” is highly likely now; GDX could move higher, while the technical indicators move lower.
- I would suggest that traders focus their attention on the green HSR (horizontal support & resistance) lines that I’ve highlighted on the chart. The indicators and the trend channel are exciting to watch, but they don’t offer the same precise entry points that HSR does.
- Longer term investors should probably focus their buying around the important HSR at $48.72. That point is also the “neckline” of a double bottom formation.
- Please click here now. The technical target of the double bottom is the $56-$58 price zone. A rally towards that area would provide a great profit booking opportunity.
- Gold has climbed about $270 from the lows, so keep in mind that any further strength is only going to make gold much more technically overbought than it is now, in the short term.
- The $1775-$1825 area should be viewed as the “wild card zone”, because anything is possible. Gold could shoot quite a bit higher, or careen lower.
- Intestinal fortitude is going to be more important than charts or economic reports, during this stage of the gold bull market.
- Sell-offs are likely to get much more frightening, and price spikes could become enormous. Unless the gold price arrives at one of your pre-set buy or sell points, try to ignore all the intra-day “stage drama”. The drama is nothing more than static noise interfering with your golden symphony.
- Please click here now. You are looking at the daily chart for oil. Lower oil prices and higher gold prices tend to make institutional money managers very excited about gold stocks.
- The cost of operating a mining company drops when fuel prices drop. Oil is also wealth itself, so I’ve drawn in some buy zones on the chart, highlighted with green lines.
- Aggressive traders can buy oil in the $90-$95 area, while passive investors could focus on $75-$80.
- I’ve highlighted 3 areas to book some profit, with black lines. The $97 target has already been hit.
- QE3 has only barely started. Some analysts have noted that defensive healthcare stocks are performing well, and they worry that this means another recession is coming.
- I think it’s far too early to call for a new leg down, especially when QE3 is only 2 weeks old.
- I’ve suggested that the current $40 billion a month cap on QE3 mortgage security purchases could grow substantially, and already Morgan Stanley’s chief American equity strategist is predicting QE4!
- “QE3 will likely be insufficient to significantly boost equity markets and we wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Fed dramatically augment this program (i.e., QE4) before year-end, particularly if economic and corporate news continue to deteriorate as they have over the past few weeks." – Adam Parker, chief U.S. equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, Sep. 24, 2012.
- It’s hard to see any fund or retail investor who is short gold, or out of gold, being very comfortable reading Adam Parker’s statement. Major banks around the world are calling for much higher gold prices before year-end, and I believe the reason is because they anticipate QE3 being replaced with QE4.
- The key Employment Situation Report will be released by the U.S. Department Of Labor on October 5, and you can be reasonably sure that Ben Bernanke will have his eyes glued to it.
- The weekly jobless claims reports are not showing a noticeable drop in unemployment. This means the Fed is more likely to accelerate their QE program.
- It’s possible that Dr. Bernanke holds the view that if the employment situation improves, it is because of his QE actions. He could then press even harder on the money-printing accelerator pedal. I expect QE3 to morph into QE4 very quickly, creating a surge in the gold price to record highs. The gold correction is interesting, but new highs is where your real excitement lies!
There have been some very significant events in the astrology recently that suggest a turn, or shift, has occurred for gold and silver, as well as for the dollar. In July I wrote to my subscribers that on August 2nd there could be a significant pullback to both gold and silver that could rattle investors who were long. There was a harsh Saturn (rules gold and mining) aspect in the Federal Reserve’s chart that suggested a potential restriction on the metals that could have led to a serious pullback. I also felt there was potential for a flash crash. On August 2nd Knight Capital Group nearly went bankrupt and became another MF Global, and events of that day were tenuous as many stocks experienced trading irregularities. Gold and silver both pulled back but not as severe as I thought, which leads me to believe the sector made a very important turn after August 2nd that suggests the old tricks of manipulation are not working as well as they used to.
For September we could continue to see strength building for the metals, and I want to highlight silver here as I see potential for silver to make stronger advances than gold in the short term. We could see institutional investors moving into silver September 25th-28th. We could see an acceleration for silver October 16th-26th that is potentially very bullish and moves silver to test previous highs near $37. I advise caution Near October 27th up to the elections for a general market correction that could bring a pullback.
I’ve gotten more mail than usual from subscribers recently, most with a common theme – I should publicize the real goings on in silver to a wider audience. Many suggested taking out advertisements in popular media sources, like the Wall Street Journal, accompanied with genuine offers of contribution. Others suggested I approach the big hedge funds to interest them in investing in silver. Not only do I agree with the suggestions, but I have been trying to extend the reach of the real silver story for quite some time. It’s kind of what I do.
I don’t think The Wall Street Journal would even accept an ad that accused one of their most important advertisers and sources of information, JPMorgan, of wrongdoing under any circumstances. But that doesn’t mean these subscribers’ suggestions were off-base. After all, I’ve been long convinced that as the facts in silver become more widely known, the manipulation will be brought to an end as investors will buy silver once they learn the truth. What could be better than reading about it in the mainstream media?
More importantly, these suggestions go to the heart of the concept of transparency, the issue front and center in current efforts to enact modern financial regulatory reform. It was the lack of transparency that largely led to our great financial crisis; from AIG hiding their exposure in credit default swaps to ratings agencies assigning phony credit ratings. Transparency would have exposed Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros. much earlier and with less collateral damage. It would be hard to describe Dodd-Frank without using the word transparency and for that reason it is one of the most used terms in CFTC chairman Gary Gensler’s public vocabulary. The word is up there with the most revered of financial words. Who (except for the banks) could be against making everything as open and honest as possible?
By Jeff Thomas, Internatioal Man
There is much discussion these days as to whether the price of gold is being manipulated. The answer is simply “yes.”
It is likely that most potential gold investors would agree that the major financial institutions have the ability to influence the gold price. They would also agree that to do so would be of benefit to those institutions. Yet, many investors still have difficulty making the final leap to agree that, if the institutions can manipulate the gold price and, by doing so, will profit from it, they will actually manipulate the price. Odd, as this would seem to me to be the easiest of the three premises to accept.
However, there are also many investors who do believe that manipulation exists. From time to time, investors have commented to me, “I don’t know how they’re going about it, but I’m sure it’s being done.”
This view suggests that the method of manipulation is difficult to understand.
Much of the manipulations that financial institutions perform are complex and confusing to those who are not involved in the industry, and this is intentional. The muddier the waters, the less transparent the activities are.
So, let’s take away the detail and express one common method of gold price manipulation in simple terms:
Bullion banks generally hold only a small percentage of what they sell. Banks claim to hold 10%, but a real number may be as low as 1%. This is possible because most buyers keep the gold stored in the bank where they bought it. All the buyer really has is a piece of paper stating that the gold exists in the bank and is being held for him.
Super Force Signals
A Leading Market Timing Service
We Take Every Trade Ourselves!
Weekly Market Update Excerpt
Sept 21, 2012
US Dollar Sell Signal Chart
- This weekly chart of the dollar shows a clear breakdown from the bearish wedge pattern, opening the door to my biggest downside target, at 55.
New Silver Upleg
Silver has certainly enjoyed an impressive run of late, catapulting nearly a third higher since mid-summer. Because this surge looks nearly vertical on short-term charts, some traders are getting nervous about this rally’s staying power. While silver may indeed be temporarily overbought, its recent strength actually looks like the vanguard of a major new upleg. Silver’s advance is likely just getting started.
Skepticism of silver’s potential continues to run rampant among speculators and investors. But this is par for the course after a major correction. Back in the spring of 2011, silver rocketed parabolic in a gargantuan upleg. But it became wildly overbought, hitting the most extreme greed levels of its entire secular bull. So over the subsequent 14 months, silver corrected dramatically by a staggering 45.5%!
Remember that the job of any correction is to rebalance sentiment, to eradicate the greed and euphoria that necessitated that correction in the first place. So the bigger the upleg leading into a major topping, the bigger the subsequent correction will have to be. Thus it shouldn’t be the least-bit surprising that silver’s biggest upleg by far of its entire bull was followed by its biggest and longest correction.
Silver finally bottomed in this past summer’s precious-metals doldrums, and as always after a major correction sentiment was rotten. Fear and apathy reigned supreme in late June and early July as silver languished near 19-month lows. This metal was largely left for dead, with bearish commentary abounding. But out of just such major sentiment ebbs is when major new bull-market uplegs are stealthily born.
Mormons, Romney and the White Horse Prophecy
As a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS), GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney could become the first Mormon president of the United States. Questions about how a candidate's religious faith may impact his presidency are always a topic of discussion during campaign season but when the candidate belongs to something other than an established mainstream American Church, people are more curious.
The vast majority of Americans have been mostly unfamiliar with the history or teachings of the Mormon Church so a little investigation seems warranted. The Church has an interesting history and some rather odd teachings when compared to those of Protestant Christianity.
Founded in 1830 in the United States by its first prophet, Joseph Smith, the LDS Church is now the fourth largest denomination in the United States, with some 14 million members. Because of its early promotion of polygamy, belief that it is the only true Church based on the model established by Jesus and its inclusion of the Book of Mormon as a scripture in addition to the King James Bible, Americans have not been particularly accepting of Mormonism. Add to that the mystery surrounding Temple worship, which is not open to the public, and it becomes evident why Americans have questions about their potential next president.
The Seeds of Conflict: Anglo-American and Chinese History
"It is this Anglo-American axis (a 'special relationship') that has dominated the Western world for the past 150 years. It is a secretive and closely guarded group of families and individuals with enormous wealth derived from the implementation of mercantilist central banking. In recent years, America has provided the military power and to a large extent the corporate vehicles that have projected the 'one world' vision of the Anglo-American elite throughout the West, and even to Africa and Asia." – The Daily Bell, Glossary
Today in the 21st century as China again takes its rightful place as one of, if not the leading nation in the world we see many neoconservative "experts" warning of a clash of interests and civilizations between China and the West. Recent history shows us how the neocons took over traditional GOP foreign policy and they have never discovered a war or conflict they didn't like. The Middle East, Asia and now Africa are experiencing wars and conflicts designed to advance their foreign policy at the point of a gun using American troops as cannon fodder for their global economic and political agenda.
In the Defense Planning Guidance document prepared by Paul Wolfowitz, this statement of neoconservative thought states the following for American foreign policy: "Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power."