| 
Gold: First Mover Advantage
By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors
In the Investor Alert, our investment team shares charts and data that we believe provide readers with a first mover advantage. While markets don’t always move like we anticipate, recognizing historical trends can provide an edge if you act quickly.
Last week, gold bugs were rewarded with the long-awaited positive momentum in the yellow metal, and on Friday, bullion rose to about $1,670. After falling below the 200-day moving average, gold had been stuck in quicksand for several months. With the jumps in the price last week, bullion swiftly rose above this critically important long-term moving average.
|
Gold Gets Stoked
Super Force Signals
A Leading Market Timing Service
We Take Every Trade Ourselves!
Email: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Weekly Market Update Excerpt
Aug 24, 2012
Morris Hubbartt
US Dollar Top Hat Chart
|
Contrary Gold Futures
With gold awakening from its usual summer slumber, traders are getting more excited about its prospects. Presumably this shifting sentiment will even grow to encompass futures traders, who’ve been incredibly bearish on the yellow metal for months now. While traders hold futures guys in high esteem, they are just as susceptible to groupthink as everyone else. They are actually a powerful contrary indicator for gold.
Just a month ago, it seemed like you couldn’t even give gold away. Bearishness abounded, and commentary and analysis were overwhelmingly pessimistic and calling for major new lows soon. Go back and skim the stuff published on gold in mid-July, and you’ll quickly see what I mean. Because it had languished in a correction since August 2011, shedding 18.8%, everyone was very negative on it.
Unfortunately this is typical in the markets, as traders tend to mentally extrapolate short-term trends out into infinity. When a price has been rallying for months, they assume it will continue powering higher indefinitely. And when a price has been falling, they convince themselves it will keep on grinding lower. These false assumptions blind traders, rendering them incapable of buying low and selling high.
|
Gold's Little Brother Is Talking
Graceland Updates 4am-7am
Aug 21, 2012
1. Early this morning, gold may have achieved an upside breakout from a key symmetrical triangle formation. Please click here now.
2. This chart provides an overview of the situation; there is a symmetrical triangle (highlighted in black) sitting within a giant drifting rectangle (highlighted in green).
3. To view the possible breakout, please click here now. FOMC minutes are scheduled to be released on Wednesday. While that report could create some significant price volatility, there’s no question that this morning’s technical breakout is a very bullish event.
4. The price of oil is rising in a near-perfect uptrend. Please click here now. Short-term traders can add to positions around the green horizontal lines on the chart.
|
Love Trade Cools as Central Banks’ Gold Demand Heats Up
By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors
The two largest gold buyers in the world that largely drive the Love Trade, China and India, underwhelmed the metals market with their subdued demand for the yellow metal during the second quarter of this year.
According to the World Gold Council’s (WGC) quarterly Gold Demand Trends report, total demand was 990 tons, which was about 7 percent lower compared to the second quarter of 2011. When you break down demand and look at the jewelry sector, you can see that Chindia remains about 50 percent of the world’s total gold demand. However, this quarter’s jewelry demand of a little more than 400 tons makes it one of the weakest periods in two years.
|
By Ron Hera
August 20, 2012
©2012 Hera Research, LLC
Gold, silver and crude oil prices are closely related to the movement of the U.S. dollar. After a healthy consolidation, gold began to move up in August 2012. At the same time, deteriorating expectations for crop yields in the American Midwest moved corn and soybean prices to new highs. Higher food prices in late 2012 or early 2013 could have far reaching and geopolitically destabilizing effects likely to weigh on stocks, putting the shine back on precious metals. While billionaires George Soros and John Paulson are buying gold, silver has been in backwardation in recent weeks and silver held in ETFs rose to $16.2 billion according to Bloomberg.
|
Super Force Signals
A Leading Market Timing Service
We Take Every Trade Ourselves!
Email: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Weekly Market Update Excerpt
Aug 17, 2012
Morris Hubbartt
|
Gold in Stock Bears
With the odds for a new stock bear growing, prudent contrarian investors are looking for bear-resistant destinations for their hard-earned capital. Plain old cash tops the list, as it will not only preserve wealth but increase its relative stock buying power as the markets grind lower. But why merely sideline capital if it can still be grown even during a stock bear? Gold has proven its ability to thrive in such markets.
Last week I wrote an essay on the rising chances a new stock bear is looming. This primarily has to do with the bull-bear cycles. The stock markets endlessly march forward in a series of alternating bulls followed by bears. After a bull, a bear is pretty much inevitable. This is true at both scales of the bull-bear cycles, the great decade-plus secular moves and the smaller multi-year cyclical moves within them.
Our latest stock-market cyclical bull that was born back in early 2009 is long in the tooth. It is both older and larger than average for mid-secular-bear cyclical bulls. This means a new cyclical bear is increasingly likely. And since these fearsome beasts tend to maul general stock prices until they are cut in half over a couple years, they are not to be trifled with. Gold offers a great way to weather them.
|
"The Perfect Storm"
Aug 14, 2012
1. Gold bulls have endured a long and frustrating year. Gold continues to move sideways. I believe the breakout will be to the upside, for a number of not-so-thrilling reasons.
2. First, the growing tensions between Iran and Israel seem to be close to a boiling point. “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have ‘almost finally’ decided on an Israeli strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities this fall, and a final decision will be taken ‘soon,’ Israel’s main TV news broadcast reported on Friday evening.” -The Times Of Israel newspaper, August 11, 2012.
3. A number of high-ranking politicians in Israel argue that Israel’s military is not adequately prepared to “manage” a military reprisal attack from Iran. That doesn’t seem to bother the pro-war crew.
4. Wars often progress a lot differently than originally envisioned by the war mongers. Unfortunately, I believe the continuing “triangularization” taking place on the gold chart reflects the growing possibility of severe and prolonged military conflict, between Iran and Israel.
|
Which Way Will the Pendulum Swing for Gold?
By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors
One of the most fascinating aspects when watching a sporting event like the Olympics is the historical statistics highlighting the tremendous advances in athleticism over the years. In the spirit of the events this summer, BTN Research compared gold’s advancement from the beginning of the games in Beijing to the London Olympics.
On the day of China’s auspicious opening ceremonies on August 8, 2008, gold was $857.80 an ounce. By the time the world watched the opening ceremonies of the 2012 London Summer Olympic Games, the precious metal had climbed to $1,617.90 an ounce. This represents a remarkable increase of 89 percent in four years.