GOLD IN THIRD WAVE

[AguA]

Perhaps I'm the only one who is lost but for those of us who don't know what you mean, could you expound?

Thanks.

No, your not the only one. I know so little that reading this thread is like looking at those pictures where if you stare long enough it starts to make sense but you're never really sure until someone helps you out.

However, I think that last post is suggesting that a downtrend in spot pricing is coming. The indicator that the bull may be slowing, at least for a little while, is based on the mostly sidewards moves in the pricing of recent weeks. 1806 could very well be the line that once crossed, will signal the start of that downward move in price.

If I'm anywhere near close on this, or so far out in the woods, someone let me know. I'm really trying to learn this stuff.

Also, d-lod, I really appreciate this supply of info you keep posting here.

[Jodster]

That is an area of strong support I doubt we get that low. Seems if we do get a repeat of 2008 that Gold will hold up this time. Silver might get hit harder but I doubt we even make a new low under 32.50 if that were to happen. Onwards and upwards.

There will be such a frenzy of buying below $35.00 that I doubt the spot could drop further unless there is some incredible manipulation.

[TomJerry]

Bump for updates from d-lod. Plz and Thx

[d-lod]

Perhaps I'm the only one who is lost but for those of us who don't know what you mean, could you expound?

Thanks.

SongSungAU

Sorry to reply late, but as you can see from the prices that gold went south.
1806 was level that I personally felt based on FIBO retracement and various
indicators, was the level that should have supported gold.

Breaking of that level means the correction will be completed through ABC of irregular
Wave II

[TomJerry]

[I
Breaking of that level means the correction will be completed through ABC of irregular
Wave II[/I]

Could you explain what this means please? ty

[d-lod]

No, your not the only one. I know so little that reading this thread is like looking at those pictures where if you stare long enough it starts to make sense but you're never really sure until someone helps you out.

However, I think that last post is suggesting that a downtrend in spot pricing is coming. The indicator that the bull may be slowing, at least for a little while, is based on the mostly sidewards moves in the pricing of recent weeks. 1806 could very well be the line that once crossed, will signal the start of that downward move in price.

If I'm anywhere near close on this, or so far out in the woods, someone let me know. I'm really trying to learn this stuff.

Also, d-lod, I really appreciate this supply of info you keep posting here.

AguA;261471

Thanks for responding to Song Sung AU. You were a great expounder.
My thread has least minimum interaction from other valuable poster so I have not tried to change my writing style.

I write minimum words. secondly I have a challenge in uploading netdania charts as I do not know, how to.
With encouragement like this, I may start giving you perfect pricing that was given earlier in previous thread on gold.

You did a great job.

[TomJerry]

Could you explain what this means please? ty

In other words, when should we be dumping our dry powder into gold?

[d-lod]

Could you explain what this means please? ty

TomJerry

It is already answered in this thread, Irregular correction is where reactive wave B make new high than the impulsive wave. So gold went to 1920, after reacting to 1702 from 1912. Here 1920 was a correction rather than a new high.

Right on Curtman, but there are lot many similarities in Wave 1 of WAVE I and III.


...........................WAVE I................................................. ...........WAVE III

Wave A: 430.50 - 387.64 = 42.86..........................Wave A: 1912.02 - 1702.48 = 209.54
Wave B: 387.64 - 432.10 = 44.46...........................Wave B: 1702.48 - 1920.74 = 218.26
Wave C: 432.10 - 371.00 = 61.10...........................Wave C: 1920.74 - 1621.10 = 299.64


I am trying to look at similarity and holding camp with history repeats.

So the new low could be 1620ish.

[d-lod]

There will be such a frenzy of buying below $35.00 that I doubt the spot could drop further unless there is some incredible manipulation.

Jodster

Sometime it pays to think like contrarian. The wave 1 of III is going to unfold to set a new record, based on wave 1 reaction we will be looking at future prices of whole WAVE III.

[TomJerry]

TomJerry

It is already answered in this thread, Irregular correction is where reactive wave B make new high than the impulsive wave. So gold went to 1920, after reacting to 1702 from 1912. Here 1920 was a correction rather than a new high.





So the new low could be 1620ish.

Ah ok. Thank you. Sorry I don't understand your charts yet. I'm trying.

[d-lod]

Ah ok. Thank you. Sorry I don't understand your charts yet. I'm trying.

TomJerry

When correction takes place they are of three type, zigzag, regular and irregular correction. Right now gole is going through irregular correction. As I have mentioned in earlier post, the price of 1920 was wave b. So now gold will go through wave c which could be equivalent to a = 1702 or 1.6 or 2.6 fibo of wave a (1912 - 1702).

[lhslancers3270]

TomJerry

It is already answered in this thread, Irregular correction is where reactive wave B make new high than the impulsive wave. So gold went to 1920, after reacting to 1702 from 1912. Here 1920 was a correction rather than a new high.





So the new low could be 1620ish.

This indicates great underlying strength. New price high in a corrective wave.

[d-lod]

This indicates great underlying strength. New price high in a corrective wave.

Yes lhslancers3270

So if A = C ......................... 1710
.......A = C = A x .61..............1792
.......A = C = A x 1.6..............1584
gold right now is below 1792 so second option is not valid so now it is 1584 or 1710.....take your pick

[d-lod]

.
.
.
.
http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1316386612.php

Friday's action was positive and it is entitled to stage a minor bounce early next week, as it is now not far above this important support level and the support at its rising 50-day moving average, and in addition the compression signaled by the high negative reading of the MACD histogram (blue bars) is calling for an immediate bounce. However, the now very large gap between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, which has grown larger still over the past week, continues to call for a correction below the 50-day moving average, probably to the vicinity of the 100-day moving average now at about 1624, in coming weeks. Thus, after a probable modest bounce early next week, gold is expected to break down below the support and head lower.

Still my guest, predicting 1624..........

[d-lod]

Waiting for gold to cross 1762 as sold gold and silver today for short term

[TomJerry]

Waiting for gold to cross 1762 as sold gold and silver today for short term

So IF gold dips below 1762, you're waiting until about 1624 to buy back?

[d-lod]

So IF gold dips below 1762, you're waiting until about 1624 to buy back?

Right on TomJerry.

That is the technical support in the back of my mind, but I am watchful of world event, and changing politics. Remember EW is a repetitive in occurrence because of fear, greed and social psychology.

[d-lod]

http://goldtrends.net/

The longer term weekly chart also shows a major channel high may have taken place. Can the market go above this line? Of course it can. We are dealing with odds and not absolutes. However ---- odds do favor this is the normal place for gold to take a pause.

[TomJerry]

d-lod, time to BTFD? Gold at 1768. Silver at 39.3.

[TomJerry]

1728 now. Need advises d-lod. Please and thx.

[SongSungAU]

1728 now. Need advises d-lod. Please and thx.

I thought if gold went below 1762 then we should wait for 1624 to buy, no?

With these wild swings, I have no idea what to do but to sit tight.
Where's the crystal ball when you need it?

[TomJerry]

I thought if gold went below 1762 then we should wait for 1624 to buy, no?

With these wild swings, I have no idea what to do but to sit tight.
Where's the crystal ball when you need it?

yeah that's what I thought too but maybe he has an update? I'm getting an itchy trigger finger.

[d-lod]

d-lod, time to BTFD? Gold at 1768. Silver at 39.3.

TomJerry

What is BTFD?

[d-lod]

1728 now. Need advises d-lod. Please and thx.

My calculations are not changed and possibly they will come true.

[d-lod]

I thought if gold went below 1762 then we should wait for 1624 to buy, no?

With these wild swings, I have no idea what to do but to sit tight.
Where's the crystal ball when you need it?

SongSungAU

right on you have grasped my language faster.

[TomJerry]

TomJerry

What is BTFD?

buy the ****ing dip

[d-lod]

1698.570...............................what next?

[SongSungAU]

SongSungAU

right on you have grasped my language faster.

I can't say as I understand everything you post but posts #66 and #67 were easy enough for me to understand.

[d-lod]

I can't say as I understand everything you post but posts #66 and #67 were easy enough for me to understand.

SongSungAU

Its great that you understood those two post.
.................................................. ...........................cause everyone want to save their ass............But among many poster, I am proud of my analysis, who called both Silver and Gold top

[Juristic Person]

$1662???

What happened to the 3rd wave?

[d-lod]

$1662???

What happened to the 3rd wave?

Its still on, but taking a breather

[d-lod]

Its still on, but taking a breather

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30576.html

I’ve stayed away from either shorting Gold or going long gold while I watch and confirm the 4th wave pattern. It’s simply the smart way to go knowing that upside will be difficult to obtain and downside risks are high. It does now appear that I am eliminating the Triangle pattern and sticking with the ABC Correction with the C wave still working its way lower. If $1702 breaks, then you should expect to see 1620-1643 as next pivot low ranges.

we had predicted this earlier.........way long ahead..........

09-11-2011 11:43 PM #46
d-lod

Quote Originally Posted by Curtman View Post
There will be no significant declines from here. We are still in the early stages of wave two, they are just bigger waves and the third wave is not the last wave unless it is a tsunami and then it will just lift us to a higher playing field.
Right on Curtman, but there are lot many similarities in Wave 1 of WAVE I and III.


...........................WAVE I................................................. ...........WAVE III

Wave A: 430.50 - 387.64 = 42.86..........................Wave A: 1912.02 - 1702.48 = 209.54
Wave B: 387.64 - 432.10 = 44.46...........................Wave B: 1702.48 - 1920.74 = 218.26
Wave C: 432.10 - 371.00 = 61.10...........................Wave C: 1920.74 - 1621.10 = 299.64


I am trying to look at similarity and holding camp with history repeats.

[lhslancers3270]

Cash high 1925 low 1308 50% retrace of that move is 1615.

[Anakin]

So, is the consensus that this is still major III? And if so this is wave 4 of III?

Is it possible that we're in major IV?

[d-lod]

Cash high 1925 low 1308 50% retrace of that move is 1615.

If I am truly following Alf Fields' count than we have finished WAVE 1 from 254 - 1032 which retraced 44.3% to 681, This wave is WAVE III's 1st wave and it has begun from 681 if that is to retrace to than the 38.2% retracment could be 1447.77 and second could be 1360.96 at 44.1 %.

If I consider your wave count from 1309 - 1925 than already gold has retraced more than 44.1%, which is at 1650ish. Gold has retraced to 1628.14.

So may be it is 1st of Wave 3.

[lhslancers3270]

Any number higher than 5-6K for Gold would require many extensions of the 5th of the 5th similar to what we saw in the Dow.

[d-lod]

So, is the consensus that this is still major III? And if so this is wave 4 of III?

Is it possible that we're in major IV?

Anakin

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30576.html

My most recent update was to simply try to figure out whether the continuing correction in Gold would take the form of an ABC pattern or an ABCDE Triangle Pattern. It is becoming more clear that the official pattern is ABC. In English it means that the first leg down from 1910 to 1702 was the “A” Wave, the rally back up to 1920 was the “B” wave. The C wave is continuing underway and one of my longstanding targets is $1643, which is a Fibonacci fractal relationship to the prior lows and highs, and also conveniently fills in a “Gap” in the Gold chart in the 1650’s.

During these 4th wave consolidation periods, it reduces sentiment back down to normal levels and lets the economics of the move in Gold catch up with the price action that was extended. The first area to watch is the re-test of $1702 spot pricing for a C wave low, but the evidence is for a further drop to $1643 before I would get too interested in trying to game Gold to the upside.

This is the postulation of your theory.
I will give you mine in two hours.

[d-lod]

Any number higher than 5-6K for Gold would require many extensions of the 5th of the 5th similar to what we saw in the Dow.

lhslancers3270

Not quite so, It is wave within waves and true unfolding of one more impulsive will give us projection for the whole scenerio till 12500$ and beyond.

I will get back with more analysis.

[eric2075]

"At press time, this game was expected to be the sixth contest of the quarter-finals between Phoenix and Denver, unless Phoenix or Denver already has won in four or five games."

"In that case, it will be either the first or second game of the semi-finals to Los Angeles, in which case this will be Phonix or Denver against Los Angeles, in progress."

"Either way, the only round of play that means anything won't start for at least three more weeks, so you won't miss much if you skip this one. (3hrs)

[d-lod]

"At press time, this game was expected to be the sixth contest of the quarter-finals between Phoenix and Denver, unless Phoenix or Denver already has won in four or five games."

"In that case, it will be either the first or second game of the semi-finals to Los Angeles, in which case this will be Phonix or Denver against Los Angeles, in progress."

"Either way, the only round of play that means anything won't start for at least three more weeks, so you won't miss much if you skip this one. (3hrs)

eric2075

yes eric so now like many of the posters of this thread, I am unable to know what does this mean?

[TomJerry]

d-lod, just to make sure, are we still looking at 1624 as a potential floor unless it breaches that?

[eric2075]

eric2075

yes eric so now like many of the posters of this thread, I am unable to know what does this mean?

It's a quote from an old Mad Magaizine TV Guide parody. These Elliott wave discussions always remind me of that for some reason.

[d-lod]

Any number higher than 5-6K for Gold would require many extensions of the 5th of the 5th similar to what we saw in the Dow.

lhslancers3270


Wave I of WAVE ONE = 0251 - 1032 = 0780
Wave II of WAVE ONE = 1032 - 0681 = 0351
Wave III of WAVE ONE = 0681 - 1912 = 1231 (780 X 1.6)

[d-lod]

If I am truly following Alf Fields' count than we have finished WAVE 1 from 254 - 1032 which retraced 44.3% to 681, This wave is WAVE III's 1st wave and it has begun from 681 if that is to retrace to than the 38.2% retracment could be 1447.77 and second could be 1360.96 at 44.1 %.

If I consider your wave count from 1309 - 1925 than already gold has retraced more than 44.1%, which is at 1650ish. Gold has retraced to 1628.14.

So may be it is 1st of Wave 3.

TomJerry

Please refer this and take notice of my style, if i change my opinion, I will post.

[TomJerry]

TomJerry

Please refer this and take notice of my style, if i change my opinion, I will post.

cheers d lod

[TomJerry]

Missed the 1536 low.

Need a new target..

[d-lod]

If I am truly following Alf Fields' count than we have finished WAVE 1 from 254 - 1032 which retraced 44.3% to 681, This wave is WAVE III's 1st wave and it has begun from 681 if that is to retrace to than the 38.2% retracment could be 1447.77 and second could be 1360.96 at 44.1 %.

If I consider your wave count from 1309 - 1925 than already gold has retraced more than 44.1%, which is at 1650ish. Gold has retraced to 1628.14.

So may be it is 1st of Wave 3.

TomJerry read this post it says

the 38.2% retracment could be 1447.77 and second could be 1360.96 at 44.1 %.

[TomJerry]

TomJerry read this post it says

Yes I saw that. Just wanted to vent mostly. Although you confirming it again doesn't hurt.

[d-lod]

Yes I saw that. Just wanted to vent mostly. Although you confirming it again doesn't hurt.

TJ

It hurts to go back and forth, when all I want from all of you is intellectual query and debate on my analysis. This looks just like a one way traffic road and I get bored easily.
lhslancers3270, jelly TJ, where are you?

[lightcycler]

TJ

It hurts to go back and forth, when all I want from all of you is intellectual query and debate on my analysis. This looks just like a one way traffic road and I get bored easily.
lhslancers3270, jelly TJ, where are you?

$26.50 was a very good target. Went a little past that but has bounced higher. I think we will at least test that $26 low again as I see we need one more leg lower to complete Wave C down after a bounce of course. We may see $25 but don't expect that to be broken. We are at a long term trend channel I beleive at about $25.50. Regardless I feel the bottom is in or very very close. I guess I will sit tight for a while as buying options with this high implied volatility is crazy. May do a straddle or something like that. Or may just sit tight and wait for 1 up and 2 down of the next wave up to complete. Volatility will come down. Would like to take advantage of that high volatility though.