GOLD IN THIRD WAVE

[ilovegoldnyc]

I have a question - I think most of us agree that the metals prices are manipulated. So if that is the case, then isnt any type of analysis (technical, or other) useless?

[lightcycler]

I have a question - I think most of us agree that the metals prices are manipulated. So if that is the case, then isnt any type of analysis (technical, or other) useless?

I tend to think the conspiricy theories are overblown. The bottom line in any market is to know that when a chart goes parabolic it will always end badly. Even though this seems like manipulation....to me it was a normal correction based on the prior run up. Check back in 6 months and the market will have moved above $50 in my opinion.

[Juristic Person]

d-lod,

If the low is $1584, and we are currently sitting at $1592, are you saying that NOW is a good time to buy?

[d-lod]

$26.50 was a very good target. Went a little past that but has bounced higher. I think we will at least test that $26 low again as I see we need one more leg lower to complete Wave C down after a bounce of course. We may see $25 but don't expect that to be broken. We are at a long term trend channel I beleive at about $25.50. Regardless I feel the bottom is in or very very close. I guess I will sit tight for a while as buying options with this high implied volatility is crazy. May do a straddle or something like that. Or may just sit tight and wait for 1 up and 2 down of the next wave up to complete. Volatility will come down. Would like to take advantage of that high volatility though.

lightcycler

Following is the thread for silver.

http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthre...rrection/page5

To reflect on your statement, I would say Silver has corrected to 78% in past, from top 21ish to 8.43, which was top of 1st wave, if that is so than 1st wave in this case is 19.46, and a very strong support. The correction levels are very clearly stated on page 4 of the above thread.
And volativity will be very high and using DYOD, trade safely.

[d-lod]

I have a question - I think most of us agree that the metals prices are manipulated. So if that is the case, then isnt any type of analysis (technical, or other) useless?

ilovegoldnyc

right on, it is manipulated to some extent, if the manipulator play among themselves, what would they get? Media raised appreciative value of gold and when people get in, manipulator goes out. And that is mass psychology and its second name is ELLIOT WAVE.

Present gold and silver appreciation is long due because of shortage of natural resources in compare to growing population and wrongful inflation.

[d-lod]

d-lod,

If the low is $1584, and we are currently sitting at $1592, are you saying that NOW is a good time to buy?

Juristic Person

the 38.2% retracment could be 1447.77 and second could be 1360.96 at 44.1 %.

In this thread to reply, Ishlancer's post, I have calculated the above mentioned support. Gold may react to 1450- 1360$ DYOD

[jelly]

Thanks D-lod. I've been reading much but posting little. I went short around 1800 and took profits today. This straight fall has me concerned that we might get a rally before we go down further. But I am by no means an expert.

A quick question: in your analysis, do you consider things like a weakening economy? In 2008 it seemed like the big drop in the Dow had a big affect on gold. If the Dow drops again like in 2008, do you see gold dropping further to, say, the 1400's or possibly even lower?

It seems like we are heading into a double-dip recession, so I'm curious as to what you think.
Thanks

[jelly]

Juristic Person



In this thread to reply, Ishlancer's post, I have calculated the above mentioned support. Gold may react to 1450- 1360$ DYOD

Question: if gold does go that low, will we see a noticeable rally beforehand, or do we keep dropping like a rock from here all the way down to $1450-1360?

[lhslancers3270]

I think we bottomed today in both Gold and Silver. Obviously the lows were made in the overnight session. I wouldn't wait for 1535 to buy Gold or 26 to buy Silver. We aren't going back down there again.

[SongSungAU]

I think we bottomed today in both Gold and Silver. Obviously the lows were made in the overnight session. I wouldn't wait for 1535 to buy Gold or 26 to buy Silver. We aren't going back down there again.

Okay, that's good to hear. One question though.... options expiration on Friday, right? TPTB won't pressure the price down on Thursday??

[d-lod]

Thanks D-lod. I've been reading much but posting little. I went short around 1800 and took profits today. This straight fall has me concerned that we might get a rally before we go down further. But I am by no means an expert.

A quick question: in your analysis, do you consider things like a weakening economy? In 2008 it seemed like the big drop in the Dow had a big affect on gold. If the Dow drops again like in 2008, do you see gold dropping further to, say, the 1400's or possibly even lower?

It seems like we are heading into a double-dip recession, so I'm curious as to what you think.
Thanks

You are right Jelly about deflation scenario and gold's reaction to it, but that time many banks were liquidated too, it was first time that investors were baffled by huge depressive mass mood. This is first time that China being largest producer of gold is also importer of gold. So when gold is on the way of becoming currency, it has major role to play. Central bank were seller of gold and now they are buyer of gold.

[d-lod]

Juristic Person



In this thread to reply, Ishlancer's post, I have calculated the above mentioned support. Gold may react to 1450- 1360$ DYOD

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Conner/sep262011A.html

I suspect the next daily cycle is going to be a volatile nightmare that will chew up bulls and bears alike before a final plunge down below the 200 day moving average - somewhere between $1300-$1400. As all D-Wave declines have retraced at least 50 to 60% of the previous C-wave advance that would be a minimum target for the November bottom. At that point we should see a very powerful A-wave advance triggered by the extreme oversold conditions generated at the D-Wave bottom. More in the weekend report...

Wait for long term buy...............DYOD gold reaching 1640

[TomJerry]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Conner/sep262011A.html





Wait for long term buy...............DYOD gold reaching 1640

d-lod, I didn't take your advise seriously last time and I got burned. Buying gold at 1800+ and silver at 41+. I thought I DYOD but the more I read/study the less I know, so I just bought.

This time I will wait and see if you're right. Cheers.

[d-lod]

d-lod, I didn't take your advise seriously last time and I got burned. Buying gold at 1800+ and silver at 41+. I thought I DYOD but the more I read/study the less I know, so I just bought.

This time I will wait and see if you're right. Cheers.

TomJerry

That's understandable cause media had created unfailing quality of PM., secondly not all my analysis were proven truthful, you always should listen to your guts and only through our mistake we learn.

I am waiting for positive divergence.

[TomJerry]

TomJerry

That's understandable cause media had created unfailing quality of PM., secondly not all my analysis were proven truthful, you always should listen to your guts and only through our mistake we learn.

I am waiting for positive divergence.

What is positive divergence?

[REO 54]

Gold Rebounds After Biggest Three-Day Decline Since 2008 Spurs Purchases.....

Gold gained for the first time in five days in London as the biggest three-day drop since October 2008 spurred some investors to buy the metal on concern about economic growth and debt crises.

Bullion slumped 8.8 percent in the previous three days as some investors sold to cover losses in other markets, which plunged on concern there may be another global recession. The metal has slid 13 percent from its Sept. 6 record and last week’s plunge prompted CME Group Inc. (CME) to raise margin requirements on futures contracts. Physical demand for gold is “exceptionally strong,” UBS AG said today in a report.

“Although not many are yet prepared to dip their toes back in the market, there is a small but growing group who believe this pullback will prove to be a good buying opportunity,” Edel Tully, a London-based analyst at UBS, wrote in a report. “Gold needs to stabilise for now, after suffering a good deal of reputational damage with recent wild moves.”

Immediate-delivery gold gained $44.05, or 2.7 percent, to $1,670.40 an ounce by 11:53 a.m. in London. It dropped to $1,532.72 yesterday, the lowest level since July 8. Gold for December delivery was 4.7 percent higher at $1,669.70 on the Comex in New York.

The metal rose to $1,671 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell output, from $1,598 at yesterday’s afternoon fixing.

Bull Market
Gold is in the 11th year of a bull market, the longest winning streak since at least 1920 in London. Prices reached a record $1,921.15 on Sept. 6 as investors sought to diversify away from equities and some currencies. The metal tumbled 17 percent in October 2008 as the worst recession since World War II sent global equity and commodity markets tumbling. Bullion jumped 22 percent in the next two months.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities yesterday fell to the lowest level since December and the MSCI All-Country World Index of shares last week touched the lowest since July 2010. CME raised margin requirements on gold and silver after trading yesterday and the Shanghai Gold Exchange will increase requirements from Sept. 29.

“When the market gets very panicky, they sell everything off and they go for cash and Treasuries because that’s really the largest market where you can park your money,” Gijsbert Groenewegen, a partner at Silver Arrow Capital Management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s a great opportunity to accumulate more gold and silver.”

Debt Crisis
Policy makers are under pressure to halt the European debt crisis that has Greece on the brink of default. The European Central Bank is likely to debate restarting covered-bond purchases and may discuss interest-rate cuts to ease funding strains next week, a euro-region central bank official said.

Silver for immediate delivery gained 7.3 percent to $32.975 an ounce, after tumbling 23 percent in the past three days and touching a 10-month low of $26.07 yesterday.

Silver slumped because it “is also an industrial metal,” said Groenewegen. “On the way down it acts as an industrial metal, on the way up it’s a precious metal. You see much more volatility also because the silver market is less deep than the gold market.”

Platinum rose 1.2 percent to $1,579.23 an ounce, after dropping to $1,471.25 yesterday, the lowest level since May 2010. Palladium was up 2.9 percent at $649.75 an ounce. It fell to $605.25 yesterday, the lowest since October.

To contact the reporters for this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net; Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

[d-lod]

What is positive divergence?

In simple words it a technical condition where prices are moving lower and indicators are taking upward position. If positive divergence takes place on weekly chart than there is possibility of upturn that is sustainable.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/58...-stock-pattern

Positive Divergence is when the MACD makes a higher low but the market makes a lower low. This situation gives us a hint of a possible reversal to the upside. The other situation is Negative Divergence and is noted when the MACD makes a lower high while the market makes a higher high. This situation gives us a hint of a possible reversal to the downside.

[TomJerry]

In simple words it a technical condition where prices are moving lower and indicators are taking upward position. If positive divergence takes place on weekly chart than there is possibility of upturn that is sustainable.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/58...-stock-pattern

For positive divergence to take place would metals need to reach (or surpass) their current lows? If so that would be a double bottom, which is very bullish yes?

[d-lod]

For positive divergence to take place would metals need to reach (or surpass) their current lows? If so that would be a double bottom, which is very bullish yes?

TJ you are already running........yes you are right.

[TomJerry]

d lod, the stress is getting to me. I've been watching the ticker almost constantly for the last 48 hours. I've decided to use a significant amount of my remaining dry powder if/when gold dips below 1600 and silver below 30. If it goes lower than that so be it.

[d-lod]

d lod, the stress is getting to me. I've been watching the ticker almost constantly for the last 48 hours. I've decided to use a significant amount of my remaining dry powder if/when gold dips below 1600 and silver below 30. If it goes lower than that so be it.

TJ

I am sure buying at any level other than bottom is very frustrating, but wait for buy signal. Gold has to dip further and silver has to move sideways.

[REO 54]

d lod, the stress is getting to me. I've been watching the ticker almost constantly for the last 48 hours. I've decided to use a significant amount of my remaining dry powder if/when gold dips below 1600 and silver below 30. If it goes lower than that so be it.

Relax.Just keep buying when you can....at least you are able to buy,and the right stuff too.

[d-lod]

Relax.Just keep buying when you can....at least you are able to buy,and the right stuff too.

Right on REO 54 and also TJ

You will not regret for next few years for any purchase at any price. It will give higher ROI than banks.

[d-lod]

hey all GIMERS

Can you guys help me and let me know, which are the best agent in IRVIN, Dallas area and premium for one ounce, 100 gram and kilo bar?

Thanks

[TomJerry]

Well my targets are in, or very close anyway. I guess I'll take the advices of the technical analysts and wait some more though. Here's to being greedy.

[d-lod]

hey all GIMERS

Can you guys help me and let me know, which are the best agent in IRVIN, Dallas area and premium for one ounce, 100 gram and kilo bar?

Thanks

does anyone live in Texas?

[Gcubed]

Try Dillon Gage.

http://www.dillongage.com/Default.aspx

[d-lod]

Try Dillon Gage.

http://www.dillongage.com/Default.aspx

Thanks Gcubed

What are the premium on 1 oz. of gold bar, this is for my aunt and at seventies she is investing her life saving so I want to be cautious in giving her advice.

The right time to purchase will come sub 1500.
Thanks again Gcubed

[Gcubed]

Thanks Gcubed

What are the premium on 1 oz. of gold bar, this is for my aunt and at seventies she is investing her life saving so I want to be cautious in giving her advice.

The right time to purchase will come sub 1500.
Thanks again Gcubed

You'll have to call for prices. The link I gave should get you started.

[TomJerry]

PMs are looking pretty stable. Are we still looking to target lower prices in the short term from a technical standpoint?

[d-lod]

d lod, the stress is getting to me. I've been watching the ticker almost constantly for the last 48 hours. I've decided to use a significant amount of my remaining dry powder if/when gold dips below 1600 and silver below 30. If it goes lower than that so be it.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Saxena/sep302011.html


Puru Saxena is among few analytical technician who is proven right often.

After reviewing a host of technical and fundamental data, we are of the view that the world’s stock and commodity markets may be on the verge of a big slide. Remember, for almost two years, the Federal Reserve supported the ‘risk trade’ via quantitative easing. However, it has now left the party, which means that the private-sector credit contraction in the developed world is reasserting its upper hand. For instance, a variety of credit spreads are rising, interest rates on Eurodollars are appreciating (shortage of dollars outside the US), the Federal Reserve is desperately trying to provide liquidity via its swap lines and the US Treasury market is signaling a severe economic contraction.

[lhslancers3270]

The big question seems to be whether or not we see a replay of 2008 in the pm market. I don't think so. Everyone was looking for a major rally in September didn't get it. I think those looking for lower pm's from here will be disappointed.

[GOLD DUCK]

The big question seems to be whether or not we see a replay of 2008 in the pm market. I don't think so. Everyone was looking for a major rally in September didn't get it. I think those looking for lower pm's from here will be disappointed.

QWAK,lhslancers,I think -- we are in CHOPPY WATER and the STORM/TRANSITION is happening

Top off the TANKS and finish off the PREPING

I think it best to try an ignore the FIAT pricing at this point.

Sort of like Dorthy in OZ -- WE are going back HOME

Just CLICK your GOLD EAGLES together and say the words -- ONLY GOLD is MONEY!

I dbout it will be quite THAT easy like in the movie, BUT I have NO dbouts that the FIAT CREDIT/DEBT SLAVERY system is CRASHING all around us and the REAL GOLD and SILVER will be the RAFT we can ride out the STORM/TRANSITION on and be in position to HELP start somthing NEW and much better and fairer to everyone!

The FIAT DEBT can NEVER be repayed it will have to be FORGIVEN/WRITEN OFF -- one way or another -- hopfully NOT a GLOBAL WAR BUT the DEBTS will be eliminated!

This is what and WHY we have been PREPARING for! -- I expect things to change much faster and be more EXTREAM as the implosion and TRANSITION continues!

That is how I see it from my POND -- now I will go PONDER on this subject because the DUCK POND is just the right temp. for ME!

the DUCK

[lhslancers3270]

Well there's pricing and there is "value". Only thing I care about so far is the metals go is how much can I buy for my Gold. If everything else goes down in relation to gold and eventually silver we are ahead.

[d-lod]

The big question seems to be whether or not we see a replay of 2008 in the pm market. I don't think so. Everyone was looking for a major rally in September didn't get it. I think those looking for lower pm's from here will be disappointed.

That's right lhslancers3270

This is wave third correction and it decline very less, because of high momentum.

But the fact remains that in 2008 the price declined by 44.9% of price rise, if that is considered for this wave than 1360 (38.2) and 1300 ( 44.9%).

[lhslancers3270]

Anything is possible.

[Curtman]

Anything is possible.

You got it right now. I think we take a washout this week. Then FED pumps liquidity. R&R

[Curtman]

DOW (Mini)
1month
FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-1.62)

10913.38 10841.0 -258.00 10839.38 10841.0 1.62
Last Updated: 4:14:56 PM

S&P 500
1month
FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-0.13)

1131.42 1126.0 -30.30 1125.87 1126.0 0.13
Last Updated: 4:23:26 PM

NASDAQ (Mini)
1month
FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-0.07)

2139.18 2134.5 -55.00 2134.43 2134.5 0.07
Last Updated: 4:14:59 PM

[lhslancers3270]

Steep uptrend violated on this P and F chart. You can see where support comes in.

[d-lod]

QWAK,lhslancers,I think -- we are in CHOPPY WATER and the STORM/TRANSITION is happening

Top off the TANKS and finish off the PREPING

I think it best to try an ignore the FIAT pricing at this point.

Sort of like Dorthy in OZ -- WE are going back HOME

Just CLICK your GOLD EAGLES together and say the words -- ONLY GOLD is MONEY!

I dbout it will be quite THAT easy like in the movie, BUT I have NO dbouts that the FIAT CREDIT/DEBT SLAVERY system is CRASHING all around us and the REAL GOLD and SILVER will be the RAFT we can ride out the STORM/TRANSITION on and be in position to HELP start somthing NEW and much better and fairer to everyone!

The FIAT DEBT can NEVER be repayed it will have to be FORGIVEN/WRITEN OFF -- one way or another -- hopfully NOT a GLOBAL WAR BUT the DEBTS will be eliminated!

This is what and WHY we have been PREPARING for! -- I expect things to change much faster and be more EXTREAM as the implosion and TRANSITION continues!

That is how I see it from my POND -- now I will go PONDER on this subject because the DUCK POND is just the right temp. for ME!

the DUCK

GOLD DUCK

The dollar index if retreat from top of 121 to 70.79 it could react to 82.5 t0 86 and that could be the technical reason for gold and silver's lower paper prices.

Those who play physical has less profit because of high premium, so eventually the % of physical player will reduce. Thie is an era of backwardation as per say A. Fakate.............

So share with us what right tempered environ suggest you. More the merrier.

[d-lod]

Steep uptrend violated on this P and F chart. You can see where support comes in.

lhslancers3270

Thanks for the chart, as I have yet to learn uploading one from stockchart/netdania, I am thankful to you for doing that for me. The chart speaks clearly that it is trying to break and has broken steep support line often, and next support is at 1350ish. The banker have grown appetite for the gold that they have sold between 450 to 800$

[GOLD DUCK]

GOLD DUCK

The dollar index if retreat from top of 121 to 70.79 it could react to 82.5 t0 86 and that could be the technical reason for gold and silver's lower paper prices.

Those who play physical has less profit because of high premium, so eventually the % of physical player will reduce. Thie is an era of backwardation as per say A. Fakate.............

So share with us what right tempered environ suggest you. More the merrier.

QWAK,d-lod,When I first learned about GOLD being MONEY I was told that GOLD acts like a MAGNET atracting more GOLD and more other kinds of WEALTH when it is RESPECTED for what it can do beyond being -- MONEY!

Just SAVING in REAL MONEY -- GOLD and SILVER changes how we see and value things and over time there is a cumulitive effect!

The profit in $$$ is a false profit that does NOT exist -- it is the GHOST of DEBT/SLAVERY that must be put to rest!

The knolage and understanding that comes is the REAL PROFIT because YOU will be able to use it WISELEY and make it GROW in the future!

the DUCK

[Silver Buck]

Steep uptrend violated on this P and F chart. You can see where support comes in.

I've been a skeptic of some TA, but I always keep an open mind. I decided to do a free-hand red line of A-B, and a dark green line of C-D. I then copied the slope of C-D and pasted it on a couple of other trends and was fascinated by the results.



There does seem to be a bit more validity to Fibs and Waves than what I gave them credit for.

[d-lod]

My Dear Extended Family:



Here are some words from Master Kenny:



"If December does NOT correct with lower closes over the next one or two days, but instead closes above $1695 over the next several days, then our figures would consider this corrective action as finished - albeit the normal back and forth widening action to come, notwithstanding. The other option (still in play), is a continuation of a V bottom and a spike rally moving very quickly up to the second resistance level at $1800/$1850, with very little widening along the way."

well everyone has different opinion.

but mine is stable and that is gold has to undergo correction more

[lhslancers3270]

Gold is having problems trading over the old gap in the 1680 area. So long as we stay under we are still in a corrective mode. I think Sinclair and Adams are looking for one more new high before we undergo a more serious correction.

[lightcycler]

I've been a skeptic of some TA, but I always keep an open mind. I decided to do a free-hand red line of A-B, and a dark green line of C-D. I then copied the slope of C-D and pasted it on a couple of other trends and was fascinated by the results.



There does seem to be a bit more validity to Fibs and Waves than what I gave them credit for.

I have watched for many years with amazment at fib retracements etc. It is a tool and a guide and is used with other tools to be right more often. Sometimes......still wrong

[d-lod]

Gold is having problems trading over the old gap in the 1680 area. So long as we stay under we are still in a corrective mode. I think Sinclair and Adams are looking for one more new high before we undergo a more serious correction.

lhslancers3270

LETS RIDE THE WAVE...................let it be monalisa


Corrective wave - irregular correction........ABC 3-3-5

A..................1912.02 - 1702.48 = 209.54
B..................1702.02 - 1920.74 = 218.26
Ca................1920.74 - 1532.59 = 388.15
Cb = B x.6......1532.59 - 1665.72 = 133.13
Cb = B x 1......1532.59 - 1750.85 = 218.26
Cb = B x 1.6...1532.59 - 1881.80 = 388.15

1665.........1750.........1881..........give and take few dollars............
Once Cb is complete will calculate Cc

Any query?

[Curtman]

Guess I'll be going in here soon for a stake.

[d-lod]

Guess I'll be going in here soon for a stake.

Curtman

I believe you understand that as per my previous post the numbers were given for wave iv of last leg down and the bottom is still far away around 1450- 1350

[Curtman]

I know. I am only after the scalp between 1:00 and the close.