When I read the thread title and first post, I was seriously pissed and was ringing through to Apmex to give someone hell when I saw the 1 oz BU's were still there(or there again).
This whole thing is getting too quirky, never seen a coin intro like it. Well maybe I have, the 2006 Anniversary Silver Eagle set. That was chaos.
I've got 100 of the 1 oz BU's "reserved" but I think the probability of me ending up with that many isn't high. With the mania surrounding the dragons, I almost guarantee that there will be rationing. Otherwise a few someones will buy the whole issue. I'll be it is limited to 10 or 20.
And then there is the issue of what will be the offering price. Currently you can buy 1 oz Kooks or Koalas for $47 from Apmex, or even series 2 Lunar Mouse coins for about the same. In the past, the new issue Lunars would have been priced the same. I think the mania has reached such a pitch that the dragon price will spike hard until the supply has a chance to get out and then level out lower. If Apmex does the initial offering at the spike price, I'm going to wait it out.
There is an Australian PM site called Silver Stackers where quite a number of the posters are dealers, some large. Here's one Australian Dealers take on the CURRENT" real valuation of the dragon
"Aurora et luna wrote:
I am sorry to say this but anyone who is prepared to pay more for the 1oz Dragon than a 2oz Dragon has soup for brains.
99% of you guys won't be starting a lunar set so why don't you just get twice the silver for the same price or less; I am sure in the long run a 2oz Dragon will give you a better return.
1oz Dragon at present has $40 of silver and $50-$60 worth of collector's premium
2oz Dragon at present has $80 of silver and $15 worth of collector's premium
When spot doubles, a 1oz Dragon will have $80 of silver and maybe up to $80 in its collector's premium. Whereas the 2oz Dragon will have $160 worth of silver as well as a collector's premium which will definitely be higher than $15"
I bought fairly heavily into 2 oz, 5's and 10's dragons a few weeks back, hope to eventually see them. I really hope I can get my "reserved" 100 1 oz BU at around $47 but I really hope to win the lottery too; chances of each are about equal.
