Hawk's Gold ~ The Legend Continues!

[lunar]

Here's my new silver & gold update interview with 'Ranting Andy' Hoffman about the total CON that is MF Global, the CME & the Comex. We talk Hyperinflation and the Euro collapse too Keep stackin'!!

[silvercher]

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Fundamental Spark for Silver and for Gold?


Today's actions by the Fed, in concert with 5 other Central Banks, plus the move by China to lower bank reserve requirements 50 basis points, the first time they have done so in three years, has provided today's fireworks across the commodity and equity marks. It is RISK ON time once again for the hedgies.

I mentioned in my analysis of the COT report yesterday, that the metals needed some sort of fundamental spark to break them out of their respective trading ranges. Perhaps we have that, at least for today, in the form of easing of liquidity concerns. That is unclear to me at this point since this really does not do anything to address the structural issues leading up to the sovereign debt issues. It is simply keeping a liquidity crisis from becoming a full-blown insolvency crisis.

This might explain why after the initial blast higher in the markets on the euphoria around the Central Bank actions, that the markets have not been able to continue adding to their early session gains. Traders are maybe having second thoughts about all this. I know I sure am. While it will temporarily help ease lending concerns, it still does not address the sinking value of all that sovereign debt on the books of the big European banks, nor of that on the books of some US banks. It seems to me we are going to have to see a very clear, unambiguous signal that Germany is going to go along with a large role for the ECB and maybe even a Eurobond market before traders will get more aggressive to the upside.

Regardless, silver has been able to capture its first line of technical chart resistance centered near the $32.50 level. This is its first visit back to this level in a week's time. That has served to reinforce the support level that formed just below the $31 level. For this market to now get anything going to the upside, it is going to have to first convincingly clear $33.50 and then exceed $35. Only then will it have a shot at anything more than a return to the top of its recent trading range.


Charts to follow later....
Posted by Trader Dan at 10:31 AM

...is Hawk watching

I think the main theme here is to take profit whenever u can, and wait for another `euro-will-collapse-in-10-days' moment to buy.
This euro drama seems would be able to linger on for months.... unless middle east erupts

[Weatherman]

Here's my new silver & gold update interview with 'Ranting Andy' Hoffman about the total CON that is MF Global, the CME & the Comex. We talk Hyperinflation and the Euro collapse too Keep stackin'!!

Very good interview. A little before the mid point of the interview, Andy also has some good advice for people who think they are "playing" the gold to silver ratio. The fundamentals will drive the price of silver to heights that few dream of now. Trading out of silver and into gold will be risky to the point of being foolish when the physical market trumps the paper manipulation.

[Goldfarmer]

Very good interview. A little before the mid point of the interview, Andy also has some good advice for people who think they are "playing" the gold to silver ratio. The fundamentals will drive the price of silver to heights that few dream of now. Trading out of silver and into gold will be risky to the point of being foolish when the physical market trumps the paper manipulation.

I'm 100% in agreement, buy both, stack both. If you think the one has more upside then just start buying more of that one till your favour turns. Then go boating, no problem!

[stefanmo]

There is a new FREE UPDATE here. (click on here)

[jonbutterfly]

Glad you are here. Nice charts.

Stock futures keep rising - it is unfathomable. How is it possible that the US economy is doing "well"??? All underlying information is point towards an economic collapse: http://djia.tv/reuters/us-morning-ca...f-jobs-report/

[platinum]

thanks for the charts

[Hawkeye]

I been berry busy ....I miss yinz guys ....fwiw

[Goldhedge]

It was a nice Thanksgiving Hawk! Hope you had a swell time too...!

[Hawkeye]

Stock futures keep rising - it is unfathomable. How is it possible that the US economy is doing "well"??? All underlying information is point towards an economic collapse: http://djia.tv/reuters/us-morning-ca...f-jobs-report/

This thing is not doing well ....no sir ree ...lol

[Hawkeye]

Uncle Bucky updated chart went imbedded sto ...don'tcha know ...lol

[REO 54]

FWIW....Gold May Advance on European Debt Optimism; ETP Holdings Climb to Record

Gold may gain for a second day, rising alongside equities and the euro, on optimism that European leaders are making progress in efforts to contain the region’s debt crisis. Palladium rose to the highest in a month.

Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,730.45 an ounce at 8:09 a.m. in Singapore. Holdings in exchange-traded products expanded to a record 2,358.206 metric tons yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. February-delivery bullion rose 0.2 percent to $1,734.70 on the Comex in New York.

“Gold and silver drifted higher as the U.S. dollar (DXY) eased,” Lachlan Shaw, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in an e-mail today. Trading is “thin” as investors wait for the European Union summit, he said.

European officials are negotiating a bigger rescue effort to present at this week’s crisis summit in Brussels, including running two separate bailout funds simultaneously, the Financial Times reported yesterday, driving stocks and the euro higher.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.1 percent to close at 1,258.47 at 4 p.m. in New York after drifting between gains and losses for most of the day. The euro was at $1.3409, rebounding from yesterday’s low of $1.3334.

Spot palladium rose as much as 0.7 percent to $675 an ounce, the highest price since Nov. 9, on speculation higher car sales will boost demand for the metal used in autocatalysts. Cash silver dropped 0.4 percent to $32.625 an ounce and platinum was little changed at $1,523 an ounce.

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...to-record.html

[lunar]

MNI Reports Coordinated Central Bank Intervention Sends Gold Lower Intraday

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/08/2011 - 12:35 Bank of England BOE Federal Reserve Testimony It is one thing for conspiracy websites to indicate that the Fed or the global central bank cartel are doing everything in their power to manipulate the price of gold lower. It is something different when the 'reputable', Deutsche Boerse owned Market News does just that.

• MARKET SOURCES REPORT BIS, BOE & FEDERAL RESERVE WERE SELLING GOLD AFTER IT POPPED TO SESSION HIGH AT GMT 1335 -MNI NEWS via BLOOMBERG

So much for all those sworn testimony claims that the central bankers do not manipulate the price of gold.

thanks Hoka

[REO 54]

Gold Traders Most Bullish in Month on Debt Crisis: Commodities.....


Gold traders are more bullish as investors buy metal at the fastest pace in a year to protect their wealth from Europe’s escalating debt crisis.

Eighteen of 26 surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to advance next week, the highest proportion since Nov. 11. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold rose 108.5 metric tons to a record from the start of October, the most since the second quarter of 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The extra bullion is valued at $5.99 billion.

Investors are now making a $130.2 billion bet on gold as European leaders meet in Brussels to seek ways to tackle the crisis that means Germany and France are under threat of losing their AAA rating from Standard & Poor’s. The European Central Bank yesterday cut interest rates for a second consecutive month to shore up growth, increasing the appeal of gold, which earns investors returns through price gains.

“People are buying out of concern, out of fear,” said Mark O’Byrne, executive director of Dublin-based GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that sells everything from quarter-ounce British Sovereigns to 400-ounce bars. Central banks “are all pursuing extremely loose monetary policies and we still have negative real interest rates. That makes gold attractive.”

Bullion rose 21 percent to $1,718.30 an ounce this year on the Comex in New York, and reached a record $1,923.70 in September. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities rose 2.1 percent and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities retreated 9.8 percent. Treasuries returned 9.3 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

Raw Sugar
Traders also anticipate gains in corn and soybeans and declines in copper and raw sugar next week, the surveys showed.

Investors held a record 2,358.2 tons of bullion through ETPs on Dec. 6, and bought 84.8 tons last month, the most since July. The combined tonnage is greater than the reserves of all but four of the world’s central banks and equal to more than 10 months of global mine supply.

Growth in the euro region will drop to 1.1 percent next year, from 1.6 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund forecasts. The ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage point to 1 percent yesterday to match a record low. Bullion rose 3.6 percent in three days after the bank cut rates by the same amount on Nov. 3.

Unlimited Cash
The ECB also said it would offer banks unlimited cash for three years and loosened the collateral criteria it imposes when lending by making credit claims such as bank loans eligible and reducing the rating threshold on asset-backed securities.

Gold bar and coin demand in Europe more than doubled to 118.1 tons in the third quarter from a year earlier, data from the London-based World Gold Council show. European Union clients opened a record number of accounts with GoldCore last week and that may be exceeded this week, O’Byrne said.

Central banks are adding to their gold reserves for the first time in a generation. South Korea said last week it bought 15 tons in November to diversify its foreign-exchange reserves. The World Gold Council expects central banks to buy as much as 450 tons this year. Official holdings stand at 30,708 tons, data from the council show.

The banks were also buying gold in 1980 as prices rose to a then-record $850, only to drop for most of the next 20 years. Bullion tripled from 1999 through the beginning of 2008 as the banks sold more than 4,000 tons.

Global Equities
Increasing optimism that European leaders would find a way of containing the debt crisis spurred investors to add $2.56 trillion to the value of global equities since Nov. 26, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A reversal of that sentiment would also be a threat to gold. The metal fell 5.6 percent in the two weeks through Nov. 25 as stocks declined 9 percent, with investors selling the metal to cover their losses.

“If there is no agreement at all, this could put pressure on the equities and commodities and might drag gold down,” said Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.

Hedge funds and other money managers are paring bullish bets. Speculators cut their net-long position by 15 percent from a two-month high to 146,298 futures and options contracts in the two weeks to Nov. 29, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Dec. 1 it expects gold to trade at $1,940 in 12 months, 13 percent more than now.

Twelve of 26 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect copper to fall next week, and five were neutral. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark contract, declined 18 percent to $7,835.50 a ton this year.

ICE Futures
Raw sugar retreated 25 percent this year to 24.04 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Seven of 10 people surveyed expect prices to drop next week.

Thirteen of 25 anticipate a gain in corn, while 14 of 26 said soybeans will increase. Corn declined 4.3 percent to $6.0175 a bushel in Chicago this year, and soybeans slid 20 percent to $11.2825 a bushel.

“The growth in the developed world is at risk, this makes us more cautious in the first six months of the year,” said David Field, who manages the 1.3 billion-euro ($1.7 billion) Carmignac Commodities fund at Carmignac Gestion in Paris. Growth in developing economies “will be strong enough, and that will drive a reasonably robust demand picture for commodities.”

Gold survey results: Bullish: 18 Bearish: 2 Hold: 6
Copper survey results: Bullish: 9 Bearish: 12 Hold: 5
Corn survey results: Bullish: 13 Bearish: 8 Hold: 4
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 14 Bearish: 10 Hold: 2
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 7 Hold: 1
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 8 Hold: 0
White sugar premium results: Widen: 4 Narrow: 4 Neutral: 2
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...mmodities.html

[stefanmo]

It's still all in the dollar....


Daily updates possible on: http://www.goldmodel.blogspot.com

[Hawkeye]

Right you are Stefanmo!




I've been busy with this trading platform soooooo check it out gang! Sign up for the Demo account and have at it ...fwiw

http://www.nadex.com/trade/markets.html

[REO 54]

FWIW....Death of Gold Bull Market Seen by Gartman

Gold, in the 11th year of its longest winning streak in at least nine decades, is poised to enter a bear market, according to Dennis Gartman, who correctly predicted the slump in commodities in 2008.

The metal, which traded at $1,666.30 an ounce at 2:43 p.m. in London, may decline to as low as $1,475, the economist wrote today in his Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter. He sold the last of his gold yesterday. Bullion has already dropped 13 percent from the record $1,921.15 reached Sept. 6 and $1,475 would extend that to more than 20 percent, the common definition of a bear market.

“Since the early autumn here in the Northern Hemisphere gold has failed to make a new high,” Gartman wrote. “Each high has been progressively lower than the previous high, and now we’ve confirmation that the new interim low is lower than the previous low. We have the beginnings of a real bear market, and the death of a bull.”

The metal typically moves inversely to the dollar, which today reached a two-month high against the euro after Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday that a European Union summit last week offered little help in ending the region’s debt crisis. Bullion is still 17 percent higher this year and holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products are at a record, a hoard now valued at $126.5 billion.

Gold’s 2011 Gain
Gold’s performance this year compares with a 2.8 percent advance in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities, in which it is the third-best performer behind gasoil and cattle. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities retreated 9.8 percent and Treasuries returned 9.2 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

The slump in equities spurred some investors to sell their gold to cover losses. Open interest, or contracts outstanding, in gold futures traded on the Comex exchange in New York, fell to 427,756 contracts, from 546,601 in July, bourse data show.

“So much damage has been done to the psychology of the market in the past week and so many late longs have been caught off guard that we think wholesale liquidation, and perhaps forced liquidation, shall be the outcome,” Gartman wrote.

ETP investors are increasingly bullish. Holdings in the products climbed 3.8 metric tons to an all-time high of 2,360.5 tons yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s equal to more than 10 months of global mine supply and greater than the reserves of all but four of the world’s central banks, which are expanding holdings for the first time in a generation.

Money Managers
Hedge funds and other money managers boosted bets on higher futures prices for the first time in three weeks. Net-long positions in gold futures and options rose by 3.5 percent to 151,347 contracts in the week ended Dec. 6, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s still down 40 percent since the beginning of August, when positions were at the highest level since at least June 2006, the data show.

While the drop below $1,670 spurred more physical buying from India and South East Asia, the demand increase is from “relatively low” levels, Standard Bank Plc wrote today in a report. UBS AG said its physical flows to India yesterday were “well above” average and the most since Oct. 20.

“This pullback finally encouraged a response from the physical community,” Edel Tully, an analyst at UBS in London, wrote in a report. “Market participants are placing a lot of importance on physical buyers to step in and put a floor under gold. The physical response seen this week, though not yet enough to call a trend, should somewhat calm these investors.”

Imports Rise
In China, the second-largest consumer, gold imports to the mainland from Hong Kong surged 51 percent to 86.3 tons in October to a monthly record, according to the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government. China imported more than 300 tons for all of 2010, Yi Gang, People’s Bank of China Vice Governor, said in February.

“Buying of that sort should have sent gold prices soaring,” Gartman wrote. “One of the oldest rules of trading is simply this: a market that cannot or does not respond to bullish news is a bearish market not a bullish one.”

The S&P GSCI Index of 24 commodities plunged as much as 66 percent in the seven months through February 2009 after Gartman in June 2008 said there would be a “tidal wave” of selling. The economist said Aug. 23 that gold was entering the stage when prices go “parabolic,” two weeks before the metal peaked at its record high.

I think this Bill from GATA...Bill Murphy 43 minutes ago 1 comment collapsed Collapse Expand
Dennis Gartman is perhaps our best contra-indicator when it comes to predicting gold prices. Thanks!


To contact the reporters on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...y-gartman.html

[REO 54]

Gold Drops to 7-Week Low as Federal Reserve Shuns Stimulus, Dollar Climbs


"Gold fell after the Fed “statement failed to hint at further quantitative easing despite acknowledging slowing global growth,” and as the dollar climbed, Suki Cooper, an analyst at Barclays Capital in New York, wrote today in a report. This week’s drop “reinvigorated physical interest in India and China, however volumes were still relatively light.”

Bullion for February delivery dropped as much as 2.3 percent to $1,625.30 an ounce, the lowest price since Oct. 21, and was at $1,632.70 by 8:02 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Immediate-delivery gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,630.40 in London.

Bullion is up 15 percent this year and set for an 11th straight annual gain as investors seek to diversify away from equities and some currencies. Dennis Gartman, an economist who predicted the slump in commodities in 2008, yesterday said the metal may decline to $1,475, extending the drop from the record $1,923.70 set in September to more than 20 percent, the common definition of a bear market."

More here...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...purchases.html

[dacrunch]

Too much gloom... so here are a few scribbles... (control-space-plus to enlarge)

[stefanmo]

New levels for support and resistance with today's level of the USDX can be found HERE

[Hawkeye]

I dun heard dat Zed fella is back aroun these parts .....I heard he was dead ..........somethin to do with a piece of farm equipment .....

[DrStrangelove]

[QUOTE=Hawkeye;307660]I dun heard dat Zed fella is back aroun these parts .....I heard he was dead ..........somethin to do with a piece of farm equipment .....


Yeah, his band is touring. I think we can all recognize his unique vocal styling:

[Zed]

I dun heard dat Zed fella is back aroun these parts .....I heard he was dead ..........somethin to do with a piece of farm equipment .....

Yep, her name was Betty, met her down in Alabama. Least that is what she told me happened. Damn near killed me!!!! If it where not for the volatility of these markets shocking me back to life I'd probably be dead with a grin .



So are we feeling for bottoms here or are we still trying to predict the conspiratorial weather?

[Goldhedge]

I dun heard dat Zed fella is back aroun these parts .....I heard he was dead ..........somethin to do with a piece of farm equipment .....

I didn't know farm equipment 'kicked' back ....

Thanks for the link to the Nadex Hawk.

I know some here aren't crazy about Sinclair, but here's his latest on why the dollar is positive.

Merely a product of a weak Euro, nothing more...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wsEfY8Qclw&t=5m41s

[Tecumseh]

Yep, her name was Betty, met her down in Alabama. Least that is what she told me happened. Damn near killed me!!!! If it where not for the volatility of these markets shocking me back to life I'd probably be dead with a grin .


So are we feeling for bottoms here or are we still trying to predict the conspiratorial weather?

lol.... good old Zed... the place hasn't been the same without you! (I will let you figure out it that is a compliment or not.)

[Lt Dan]

thanks Zed, here is another "Black Betty" for you

[Zed]

I didn't know farm equipment 'kicked' back ....



Thanks for the link to the Nadex Hawk.

I know some here aren't crazy about Sinclair, but here's his latest on why the dollar is positive.

Merely a product of a weak Euro, nothing more...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wsEfY8Qclw&t=5m41s

I have not listened to it yet but the dollar is strong due to a combo of Euro weakness and the fact that it is a carry source currency. Once it starts rallying it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy as the dynamic that finances many hedge funds stops working hence assets need to be liquidated to preserve profit or contain loss and funds need to be repatriated. It is 2008 lite.... so far. It is a binary world these days with an unprecedented level of correlation, risk on, risk off... that is it, that is all she wrote. This paradigm cannot last but I fear we will have it for a few more years yet!

Hey T... thanks, errrr um, I think, but then I think I know better. Such is a professional traders dilemma in goldbug town!

Did I ever tell I do actually invest in this stuff as well?

Ahhhhh faggitit! Hi!

[Zed]

thanks Zed, here is another "Black Betty" for you

Thanks! Yeah I tossed up whether to post that one, them being Awstralian and all, but I went old school USA for Hawks sake!

[dacrunch]

more scribbles

[Zed]

... I am keen to see some action this chart is suggesting to me that we will see more range bound nothingness into the first couple of months of the New Year. If we close out the month down in this range I'd not be expecting a lot until mebe Feb to March. It should be frustrating buy the dips territory with nothing much in the way of strength or weakness. A monthly close above this range would be nice, that would offer greater hope for a decent near term rally IMO. $64Q is how much gold pessimism is still out there? Or more to the point how many hedge funds are left to liquidate? I'd have thought that this Euro situation was as obvious as they come and well discounted by the market. With that thought in my head I can only think that this capitulation was in fact early gold longs positioned for big Euro QE throwing in the towel as the Euronuts manage to muddle sideways like the Keystone Cops on a call out! I think that a lot of $$$$ are hanging on the side line looking for clarity, "change we can believe in"! Can Germany print mo money while swearing blind that each and every dollar is the last? That seems to be what they will need to do to keep domestic politics in line and the Eurozone intact! I bet Merkel has a headache, talk about the right half of the brain arguing with the left half !!!



Ramblings from downunder!

Morning peeps.

7 days till the fat man cleans da chimney!

[HardAssets]

They are not going to make it this easy are they?

[Hawkeye]

Doncha know we're riding with da king!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_CUzuitxSI

[Zed]

[Zed]

[Zed]

[Zed]

Why do I figure you guys are short gold and silver and long legs?

[lunar]

Why do I figure you guys are short gold and silver and long legs?

....may be I'm a little behind

[lunar]

...to all of you

[the wave]

Happy New Year

[Hawkeye]

Only the calm ...cool ...and ...collected ... survive this game ....fwiw


...

[stefanmo]

With current level of the USDX model gives support for the POG at 1510.

[dacrunch]

Only the calm ...cool ...and ...collected ... survive this game ....

I learned the hard way, many moons ago, to NEVER be "on margin" - especially with PMs...

"Gambling" with options is another story - that's "throwaway" money, up front.

.

[Trader737]

Happy New Year

15-12-2012 What is the expected price?

[Hawkeye]

With current level of the USDX model gives support for the POG at 1510.

[Goldhedge]

How about gold's red-headed step child silver?

[the wave]

8.64/6=1.44

[the wave]

@ Trader737 - Since gold has a avg. of 20% gain since 2002 $1800 might be a good bet.

[Strawboss]

How about gold's red-headed step child silver?

I am 95% convinced that we just saw the bottom put in with silver. It retested the $26.15 low and held with a strong bounce off of it. Time will tell...

[bemac]

I am 95% convinced that we just saw the bottom put in with silver. It retested the $26.15 low and held with a strong bounce off of it. Time will tell...

The Ebay ticker still says $38.50/oz.

[lunar]

Only the calm ...cool ...and ...collected ... survive this game ....fwiw

...

* * * * *