Hawk's Gold ~ The Legend Continues!

[jbilprophet123]

USDJPY all time low. Aud going down.
This is not the market i want to be long. no stocks no gold no commo..
Something like this currency situation was present during 2008 fiasco.. with Euro strength being the exception for now..

[King Of Budz]

I keep hearing that everywhere. If a lot of people are going to sit on the sidelines then they would have to sell their positions. So if a majority of people are going to sell why not short this?

That's my game plan currently. I've been buying ZSL & FAZ low and selling them when they go up to fast or there is fat profit to take. That 10% pre-market jump on ZSL was nice to wake up to earlier this week. For less experienced traders you could prob hold SH,SKF, or even ZSL steady for the next few months or however long the correction lasts and come out nice and green.

[fewferfev]

I'm making it easy on myself and am buying bonds...

http://apeakunderthehood.blogspot.co...lows-feds.html

[jbilprophet123]

I have retired from trading just now a couple of days back.
Let us see if this retirement lasts for a year or mid june i become active again or august lows..
Plan is to buy physical if and when the total panic bottom happens..
or to be happy with FRNs.
Physical once bght is usually never sold. So it is basically a change from agressive growth objective i am trying to goto
passive very long term preservation of wealth and beating inflation objective.

Doing this for 0-5 years timeframe eventually when a bottom of housing seems in i will go for some foreclosure property..

What is opinion about Las Vegas real estate currently if there are any one from that area of in general any opinions about real estate are welcome ..

[fat panther]

Not scientific, but friends who bought even in '06 are upsidedown. Vegas is supposed to be worse than Florida, and this is scientific - Florida sucks. Check out this new trend. New, and rented 3-10 months left on leases), 900-1400+-sf condos selling for US$43-48 per sf! Some properties have no assoc fees for a year or two. They are, of course, selling out immediately, but are setting the new "comparable", pushing more buyers to the sideline not wanting to catch a falling knife. This will probably continue until the hugh inventories have reduced significantly.

Properties have sat for so long without banks maintaining they will not pass FHA and therefore will only go to cash buyers. Also have to have cash for repairs, and then to market for financed sale. A modest amount of this is going on with 3/2 and 4/2 1/2, 1600-2000sf going for 30-50K. Understand, these prices are for neglected/trashed properties. However, the turn is still not there to reduce excess inventory quickly and this is putting further downward pressure on pricing and therefore more defaults. This crap will make you dizzy when you try to figure a good entry point.

It's definitely a good time to buy select properties, as $43-48 is probably less than half of what the new "new construction/post bubble" price will be. No more $200-300 psf for average construction. Good news, bad news.

FWIW

[jbilprophet123]

Not scientific, but friends who bought even in '06 are upsidedown. Vegas is supposed to be worse than Florida, and this is scientific - Florida sucks. Check out this new trend. New, and rented 3-10 months left on leases), 900-1400+-sf condos selling for US$43-48 per sf! Some properties have no assoc fees for a year or two. They are, of course, selling out immediately, but are setting the new "comparable", pushing more buyers to the sideline not wanting to catch a falling knife. This will probably continue until the hugh inventories have reduced significantly.

Properties have sat for so long without banks maintaining they will not pass FHA and therefore will only go to cash buyers. Also have to have cash for repairs, and then to market for financed sale. A modest amount of this is going on with 3/2 and 4/2 1/2, 1600-2000sf going for 30-50K. Understand, these prices are for neglected/trashed properties. However, the turn is still not there to reduce excess inventory quickly and this is putting further downward pressure on pricing and therefore more defaults. This crap will make you dizzy when you try to figure a good entry point.

It's definitely a good time to buy select properties, as $43-48 is probably less than half of what the new "new construction/post bubble" price will be. No more $200-300 psf for average construction. Good news, bad news.

FWIW

Thanks a ton!!
The rates example that you are giving is for Florida right? Which part of Florida?
The basic theme developing was if i can buy say a place in Vegas or Florida on beach they can act as a vacation places.
Or if possible if they can generate rental income it will be even better.
The gains of 2007 to 2011 gold/silver speculation can go and become these properties one each in Florida and Vegas say combined 300k-400k. And principle can become physical with luck at bottom prices..

I can not fix diddly squat. Probably not even replace a fused bulb!! So propoerty is new or good running ones.

Any comments/suggestion will be much appreciated!!
Thanks.

[bemac]

I think in the long run, you'll do better with food than property. Poor people can't go to Vegas, but they need to eat.

[fat panther]

Google "steve dalia florida". Go to wholesale real estate. Projects I've known orlando ft myers, tampa and dade, broward and palm beach counties. Holler if you need more.

[Hawkeye]

OLE Blondie is at it again ......lol...Technical analysis airlines what a great name ..lol

[monomanic]

from trader Dan again:


currently at 540.52, looks like go time to me

[Hawkeye]

[jbilprophet123]

Shorted gold via DZZ 1422-
Stop loss 1434 with hurrah 100% of portfolio found in another IRA account (which used to be 10% or so till now)

[fat panther]

That "no trading for a year" idea lasted what, a week tops? Face it, you're a junkie. LOL Best of luck!

[jbilprophet123]

That "no trading for a year" idea lasted what, a week tops? Face it, you're a junkie. LOL Best of luck!

Well, Yes ofcourse I am a junkie However the main stock trading account is all cleaned up now. Money transferred to Bank. So remaining 10% i can assure you will either gain 100% or loose atleast 50% in a year now. All trading agression i can pile it on the baby now

Daytona Beach, looks like a nice area with good beaches and 50% down from even 2004 level in some cases..

[monomanic]

jb... i don't think we see the bottom on real estate until interest rates go up.

I'm in toronto and looked last year. In my $350k price range there were shacks that required a **** ton of repairs and condos with $500 per month maintenance fees. Decided to keep renting.

That being said, daytona has a few things going for it:

[jbilprophet123]

jb... i don't think we see the bottom on real estate until interest rates go up.

I'm in toronto and looked last year. In my $350k price range there were shacks that required a **** ton of repairs and condos with $500 per month maintenance fees. Decided to keep renting.

That being said, daytona has a few things going for it:

Maybe the bottom is in against the fundamentals if cnn is printing this kind of stuff..
or maybe 2012 will be better time to start looking .. i mean for real estate .. before that ..

Nearly 20% of Florida homes are vacant
Les Christie, staff writer, On Friday March 18, 2011, 4:14 pm EDT
It's not always easy to feel sorry for sunny Florida. But they just got hit with another blow.

On Thursday, the Census Bureau revealed that 18% -- or 1.6 million -- of the Sunshine State's homes are sitting vacant. That's a rise of more than 63% over the past 10 years.

Having this amount of oversupply on the market will keep home prices depressed and slow any recovery.

During the housing boom, Florida was among the hottest real estate markets in the nation. Homes were snapped up by the state's growing population as well as hordes of investors confident that prices would continue to soar.

"You'd drive through downtown Miami and see 30 or 40 cranes sticking up in the air," said Michael Larson, a housing market analyst for Weiss Research.

The bust brought an end to that. Development ground to a halt. Retirees stopped relocating. And prices started falling and vacancies rising.

"Housing went from being the preeminent investment of choice to toxic waste," added Richard DeKaser, an economist with the Parthenon Group.

The vacancy problem is more dire in Florida than in any other bubble market: In California, only 8% of units were vacant, while Nevada, the state with the nation's highest foreclosure rate, had about 14% sitting empty. Arizona had a vacancy rate of about 16%.

In Florida, the worst-hit county is Collier -- home of Naples -- with a whopping 32% of homes empty. In Sarasota County, 23% of the housing stock sits vacant, while Lee County (Cape Coral) has a 30% vacancy rate. And Miami-Dade County has a vacancy rate of about 12%.

The housing recovery will take years, perhaps many years, to complete, according to Ingo Winzer, a housing market analyst and founder of Local Market Monitor.

Not helping is the the fact that the state's rate of population growth slowed in the second half of the last decade to just 5.7%. Still, the 2000s saw the state population grow overall by nearly 18%, the Census Bureau reported. I

"It will take about eight years just to put the vacancy numbers back into the single digits," said DeKaser.

The inventory overhang has sent home prices plunging. The median price for homes sold in January was just $122,000, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. That was down 7% from 12 months earlier and less than half the price at the peak of the market.

Winzer thinks prices in Florida will drop even more, another 5% in 2011 and 3% in 2012. "Even after that, they're not going to rebound, they'll just sit on the bottom," he said.

Celia Chen, a housing market analyst for Moody's Analytics, is also downbeat in her forecasts for Florida. Not only will prices fall another 11%, she said, but the bottom won't hit until mid-2012, about a year later than the nation as a whole. Some metro areas won't get back to their pre-recession peaks until long after the present owners are old and gray.

She doesn't expect Naples, for example, to come all the way back until the late 2030s. Other Florida metro areas with a 20-year wait or longer include Punta Gorda, Palm Bay and North Port.

"If you're buying in Florida for retirement," said Winzer, "maybe you buy next year when prices will be near the bottom. If you're buying for investment -- don't."

[fat panther]

Looks like you just answered your own question, at least for Florida. And to think, everyone thought I was insane (my wife included, but somehow she loves me too much) to buy/invest my money into a depreciating asset like a boat to live on! I'll spare the rest of the story, this is Hawks thread, not real estate. We better PM in the future, or start a new thread over at RIM2 (Real Estate is Money2), not! All the best! I absolutetly get silly knowing I didn't own any RE the last 8 years, I would have been the last sucker in!

[AGRO]

last weeks close teetering on the red line. Looking for more proceeding up. The line has been pierced. I'd like to see a full breach test then upwards.

EDIT: this is actually a few hours before the end of trade. I ADDED MY CLOSE CHART above the top TL.

[Hawkeye]

SLW

All targets have been met ( usually not bullish) ....watching to see if she can close above target #3 that would be(bullish) ...all in all it depends on what the buck and gold do here ...plus the general stock market ...caution please ...only a nibble and keep yur core ...fwiw



Daily look

[Hawkeye]

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.
Thomas Jefferson, (Attributed)
3rd president of US (1743 - 1826)

[dacrunch]

hi hawk... here's anuddah scribble...

[monomanic]

got any trades hawk?

check out deer consumer, HL looks like good value

[dacrunch]

one linked at maxkeiser.com

“We just had a trend line break in the USD that looks uncannily similar to the 1970s break.� link

"Time for Gold to Shine? USD Breaks 3-year Trend Line" link

[Hawkeye]

got any trades hawk?

check out deer consumer, HL looks like good value

Replace the word playoffs with trading ...................Trades?! ....trading for chumps! ....trades?! ....sheesh .....trades!?



lol ....scratches head ....you want to see a hecla chart?

[Hawkeye]

one linked at maxkeiser.com

“We just had a trend line break in the USD that looks uncannily similar to the 1970s break.” link

"Time for Gold to Shine? USD Breaks 3-year Trend Line" link

[DrStrangelove]

"The road will seem so straight and fair to travel, you will kick yourself for stumbling through the brambles for so long, and wonder at your neighbors who still can't see the path, though it is truly a freeway." (Aristotle, courtesy of FOFOA)

Debt failure is the key... and quantitative easing is the tune.

[lunar]

<hr style="color: rgb(204, 204, 204);" size="1"> 22 March 2011 - from Jesse

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Blythe Moves Her Pawns at the Comex

"Gold and silver are money. Everything else is credit." J. Pierpont Morgan

Since option expiry is on Monday the 28th, I would expect Blythe to throw some cards on the table and at least take a run at this rally. If it comes it will be in thin trading and likely into the weekend.

The gold/silver ratio is cracking 40 again. It could eventually go back to 16:1 which has historical precedent.

Keeping the Shell Game Going Department

JPM Becomes a Self-Licensed Vault/WeighMaster/Assayer For the NYMEX/COMEX

Makes it easier to move the bullion between the COMEX and SLV? lol
Good one, Baba Yaga.

[Hawkeye]

The bottom is in...

DULLAH!

[Hawkeye]

What a great show of strength ...Swingin is amazing here ..we need some follow thru to punch up thru that top rail resistance ..maybe after that dead cat bounce ....hehe ...we C

[monomanic]

what do you think of a short treasuries, long silver trade?

[Hawkeye]

sto looks close ....fwiw

[bemac]

That don't look good, Hawk.

[Hawkeye]

That don't look good, Hawk.

What? da dollar chart ...I'm hoping he rolls over here or over the nxt couple days ...we C

[bemac]

What? da dollar chart ...I'm hoping he rolls over here or over the nxt couple days ...we C

Yeah, I was referring to the almighty buck. That stuff I usually trade for gold.

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, I was referring to the almighty buck. That stuff I usually trade for gold.

Some how that trade doesn't seem fair ....but if they be willin! ....lol

[monomanic]

wow, what a rollercoster today

your analysis was priceless as always hawk

I'm a fundamental guy and imo we (pms) roll despite historical april data

thanks hawk!

[lunar]

Note each cruise missile contains approx. 15kg of silver in wiring, contacts, solder and batteries.

[monomanic]

If the Fed ends QE-2 in June as they have said they will, who will take up the slack? Who will purchase between $75 and $100 billion worth of Treasury bonds at yields of 3.5% for the 10-year?

Is there someone?

Anyone?

The answer is, No one will take up the slack.

Who, Japan? They’ve got some well-known troubles of their own—they’re all about selling Treasuries and buying up yens, both now and for the foreseeable future.

The Chinese? They’ve been quietly exiting Treasuries for a couple of years now, and going into every commodity known to man.

Europe? Are you serious—Europe? Please don’t make me laugh that hard—it hurts.

The fact is, there is no one outside the United States that I can think of who would willingly buy Treasury bonds—not to the tune of +$75 billion a month.

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011...hree.html#more

[ZurichBob]

If the Fed ends QE-2 in June as they have said they will, who will take up the slack? Who will purchase between $75 and $100 billion worth of Treasury bonds at yields of 3.5% for the 10-year?

Is there someone?

Anyone?

The answer is, No one will take up the slack.

Who, Japan? They’ve got some well-known troubles of their own—they’re all about selling Treasuries and buying up yens, both now and for the foreseeable future.

The Chinese? They’ve been quietly exiting Treasuries for a couple of years now, and going into every commodity known to man.

Europe? Are you serious—Europe? Please don’t make me laugh that hard—it hurts.

The fact is, there is no one outside the United States that I can think of who would willingly buy Treasury bonds—not to the tune of +$75 billion a month.

It seems clear that there will be a QE3 but perhaps there will need to be another market collapse or economic event like bond sale failures that will justify it.

[fat panther]

Anyone have any thoughts on the price action of plat pal and rhod?

[dacrunch]

just a boring update of my 10 year logarithmic gold chart...

[Silver Buck]

I came across an article about 'Silver Paper Price Suppression' with this chart showing 'proof' of said paper suppression.

Excerpt from the article:



My rookie understanding of this is that London is where the physical is traded and NYMEX is where paper is traded. Wouldn't this chart show that paper is actually bringing prices back up?

If I'm confused, please let me know.

Why I find this analysis very interesting is that I have used the 'London Dips' to allow me to take advantage of the dips. This pattern happens on a predictable basis. It happened yesterday and is happening today.



I've been able to time my purchases (typically 10:30 Eastern at my local dealer) well over the past half a year or so. If I was in a buying mood today I would be at my dealers when they open at 10.

What really caught my attention about this article is that I had taken notice of the swings myself and archived that very day, but not to show how the price of Silver is beat down, but the sheer volatility of the price of the metal.



Is the author simply try to cherry pick his data?

Feedback on my take on this is greatly encouraged and appreciated.

[Hawkeye]

[Silver Buck]

Recognizing these repeated dips have played out quite well for me.



I wish I would have taken some pics of charts for the past six months to see exactly how often this occurs.

The New York Rebound typically follows the London Dip.



This two day pattern typically follows after a few days of flat to good performance. While not 100%, it has been predictable enough for me to maximize my PM purchases.

I hope others can benefit from this.

[new money]

Very interesting, how do you make money with the information? I would guess you use some sort of on-line trading in a silver direct or indirect purchase and put in a stop and sell? What amount of money do you need and what are the costs?

[donkey]

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1301340431.php

Was that the article you read about silver price suppression?

I wanted to confirm the table used in the article. The OCC reports are found at these links:

OCC report

For previous quarters you can change the endings, for example:
dq410.pdf (Q4, 2010)
dq310.pdf
dq210.pdf
....
dq208.pdf (Q2, 2008)

The table you look for is near the end (Table 9)
'NOTIONAL AMOUNTS OF DERIVATIVE CONTRACTS BY CONTRACT TYPE & MATURIT
OP 5 COMMERCIAL BANKS AND TRUST COMPANIES IN DERIVATIVES'

So it looks like JP Morgan's gold and silver derivative contracts have both more than doubled (Gold from 81 bil to 163 bil, Silver from 6 bil to 12 bil) since Q3 2009.

At this point all the other banks (besides HSBC as pointed at in the article) have numbers conspicuously at 0 whereas JP Morgan is in direct contrast with huge amounts of PM derivatives.

I don't know how to interpret this or what it means. I'm just making those links easily accessible for someone who could skim them over quick and make a short assessment about their meaning.

[Silver Buck]

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1301340431.php

Was that the article you read about silver price suppression?

I wanted to confirm the table used in the article. The OCC reports are found at these links:

OCC report

For previous quarters you can change the endings, for example:
dq410.pdf (Q4, 2010)
dq310.pdf
dq210.pdf
....
dq208.pdf (Q2, 2008)

The table you look for is near the end (Table 9)
'NOTIONAL AMOUNTS OF DERIVATIVE CONTRACTS BY CONTRACT TYPE & MATURIT
OP 5 COMMERCIAL BANKS AND TRUST COMPANIES IN DERIVATIVES'

So it looks like JP Morgan's gold and silver derivative contracts have both more than doubled (Gold from 81 bil to 163 bil, Silver from 6 bil to 12 bil) since Q3 2009.

At this point all the other banks (besides HSBC as pointed at in the article) have numbers conspicuously at 0 whereas JP Morgan is in direct contrast with huge amounts of PM derivatives.

I don't know how to interpret this or what it means. I'm just making those links easily accessible for someone who could skim them over quick and make a short assessment about their meaning.

That would be the article. I wasn't dwelling on the tables, I was simply looking at the price of Silver. It just seemed odd that he was basing Silver manipulation by paper while illustrating the change of price based on the physical market (London).

Very interesting, how do you make money with the information? I would guess you use some sort of on-line trading in a silver direct or indirect purchase and put in a stop and sell? What amount of money do you need and what are the costs?

It's not that I am making money with it, I'm buying the Silver at the lowest cost possible. I don't know exactly how much I've saved that way, I just know that I've been able to pick up Silver at the lowest price when I've been ready to buy.

[monomanic]

I changed my mind and sold my entire trading account (still have my stack lol).
Charts look toppy.
I couldn't sleep at night and kept thinking of pigs getting slaughtered.

After q1 result have been printed, I will get back in at the appropriate point.

Here's a pic to distract you:

[Hawkeye]

Thanks Mono ...you have a way with photos ....been very distracted ....now to the charts

[DrStrangelove]

Short term. This is the end of the quarter and we'll see today's strength maintained today for the Euro's quarterly mark-to-market valuation of its gold reserves IMHO. Last quarter was $1412 +/-.

Likely short term weakness (buying opportunity) into April/May before the next major bull surge.