SLV one year chart

[smooth]

SlV one year chart for me shows some very bears signs. it has brokebelow support channel and in the last three months a nasty head and shoulder formation with a clearly broken neckline.. I'm not a huge TA guy so what do you guys think? headed to low 20's?

[cpthnsolo]

SlV one year chart for me shows some very bears signs. it has brokebelow support channel and in the last three months a nasty head and shoulder formation with a clearly broken neckline.. I'm not a huge TA guy so what do you guys think? headed to low 20's?

I haven't looked at the chart, but the GLD broke the 200 dma for the first time in years this past week. IIRC, it had bounced off the 150 over a half dozen times since 2009 so breaking the 200 dma is an unbelievably bearish indicator. I'm bearish on all metals right now, but given their usual seasonal strength here I'm not so certain we're heading that far down.

[smooth]

silver broke 200 ma much earlier, like mid september. But with its fast run up I guess that was to be expected. I feel somewhat bearish for now on silver, and fighting the erge to buy (not easy). I guess looking for opinions of others to help reinforce my thoughts on holding off till possibly low 20's. I think the the big rally and steep decline has scared off most investers till prices show less downside risk. GSR seems to have started moving up again, and I wonder if 70 could be down range somewhere.

[Goldhedge]

I think SLV is short 20 Million ounces...

[smooth]

I think SLV is short 20 Million ounces...

Yeah, could be. And with the possible loss of investment for those MF Global investors who hold receipts through the CME. Couldn't these be more reasons that would drive the paper price down?

[Voodoo]

I thought I would add an actual chart to the thread. This is a very bearish looking chart for silver at the moment. Look at the near term support at the last large drop where lots of buying below $30 and it closed above that level on a daily basis. We have now broken through that level and I see no support short term.

The weekly chart looks much better (as it should because we are in a long-term bull market). We have some technical support at ~27.50 and the moving average around $24 but personally I think we retest the $20 level. That's where the price really broke out of a long-term range and went ballistic to $50. A nice retest and then strong bounce would represent a very strong move in the next wave up.

[smooth]

Voodoo, thanks for the charts, worth a thousand words. If I were more internet/forum savy i would have posted one or two. Yes. looks bearish. For now

[Oldmansmith]

Voodoo, thanks for the charts, worth a thousand words.

+1

Low 20's would be great but I dunno...


What does SLV mean, mean "Silver Left Vault?"

[SirOzzyyzzO]

I think SLV is short 20 Million ounces...

We're not talking about the obvious, here... lol You are a smart one, therefore you must move along & not disrupt the sheep - please..... No more mention of the truth from you, otherwise how else will the bankers & brokers on Wall Street get to frolic in the Hamptons this summer.....

Buy Buy Buy bullion in the dips... Come April (which seems to be the old May) sell off the numismatics that brought you a few dollar profit, then do it all over again - buy the dip, buy the dips....

[smooth]

We're not talking about the obvious, here... lol You are a smart one, therefore you must move along & not disrupt the sheep - please..... No more mention of the truth from you, otherwise how else will the bankers & brokers on Wall Street get to frolic in the Hamptons this summer.....

Buy Buy Buy bullion in the dips... Come April (which seems to be the old May) sell off the numismatics that brought you a few dollar profit, then do it all over again - buy the dip, buy the dips....

If one can time a market when indicaters are staring him in the face, maybe he comes out ahead. I just wanted to ask if others here saw, and were acting on, the distinct indicaters in a one year chart that were pointing to more down side. This aside if there is merrit to the 20 million missing ounces, and with the MF Global thievery. Investers must be leary from putting there money into futures and or ETF's in general. Volume alone may be pointing towards this. To me this just brings paper prices down more.

I may be very wrong, and if we start to swing out of this trend I will be ready. The folks that have been buying the dip for the last 7 months or so, probably aren't so happy about it right now. Bankers are bankers, and they do what they do, and there is nothing I can do about it. So why not sit back and see if we can figure out a way to gain a few more ounces?

thanks to those who have posted, and Merry Christmas.

[smooth]

Dollar down, market up, gold and silver both down. More negative signals.

[Lore]

There's so much going on behind the scenes that conventional TA is unreliable. The charts no longer tell a commodity price story. MF Global gave us a foretaste of things to come. Allegations of fraud have swirled around the silver exchange-traded-fund (SLV ETF) since inception. Most of the parties involved in Western commodity trading (CME, LBMA, WGC, COMEX, CFTC, SEC, JPM, etc.) have dark clouds of suspicion hanging over them. Whatever happened with the Tungsten investigation? What happened to the gold held by every deposed tyrant over the last ten years? Remember the misallocated bar spotted behind Bob Pisani during his vault tour? There are so many holes. Signs and hints of corruption and crime are surfacing every direction we look, like evidence of some super-sized pest infestation. Snakes in suits are running rings around the system. When do any of these animals go to jail?

Today's charts indicate the status of paper silver and paper shares, not real silver. Heaven only knows what the chart would look like for the real thing.

THE SYSTEM IS TOO CORRUPT. WE HAVE NO WAY OF KNOWING.

[Voodoo]

Well it didn't take long to test the support at 27.50. We should bounce around for a little while (rest of the week?). I am long physical gold and silver (not nearly as much as i would like...stupid boats) and playing with the paper by hedging or shorting.

[smooth]

Well it didn't take long to test the support at 27.50. We should bounce around for a little while (rest of the week?). I am long physical gold and silver (not nearly as much as i would like...stupid boats) and playing with the paper by hedging or shorting.

Nope. kinda broke straight on through. i'm long physical as well, it doesn't go anywhere. Taking advantage of the paper trades as well, as long as it makes sense to do so. Holding on to DSLV since silver was 31.xx an ounce. I almost sold off half my stake today, but forced myself to stay the course. My plan so far is to hold the short till 25.xx, then maybe sell half...... but plans do change.

[SilverCity]

Bob chapman would agree with Lore. TA is meaningless in manipulated markets. If you can still sleep well at night...then maybe you don't own enough.

SC

[smooth]

Bob chapman would agree with Lore. TA is meaningless in manipulated markets. If you can still sleep well at night...then maybe you don't own enough.

SC

SilverCity, Agreed at times TA can be a mixed bag. And as stated in OP, I'm by no means proficient in the practice, hence the thread... but many things in the charts pointed towards a downward trend, in my opinion strongly enough to not be ignored. TA alone for me is not enough to act on. Perhaps we can take advantage of the actions of the market makers? there is more than one way to build a stack.

[Joseph]

Well it didn't take long to test the support at 27.50. We should bounce around for a little while (rest of the week?). I am long physical gold and silver (not nearly as much as i would like...stupid boats) and playing with the paper by hedging or shorting.

Thanks to all for the input on this today. I'm a GIM newbie, having shifted out of corporate 401K Hell and into IRAs and cash. Am accumulating Ag and Au as fast as my bank acct will allow. I watched Au and Ag most of the day today with my finger on the trigger, but have not committed .

The market is bizarre, I think ...

Dollar down, market up, gold and silver both down. More negative signals.

and I have no skill set when it comes to TA (T and A, yes. TA. no).

SilverCity, Agreed at times TA can be a mixed bag. And as stated in OP, I'm by no means proficient in the practice, hence the thread... but many things in the charts pointed towards a downward trend, in my opinion strongly enough to not be ignored. TA alone for me is not enough to act on. Perhaps we can take advantage of the actions of the market makers? there is more than one way to build a stack.

So ... given the following news:


http://news.yahoo.com/italy-short-te...114350147.html


and


http://http://news.yahoo.com/us-warn...173312409.html

I'm confused

I think the possibilities of chaos with respect to Italy and Iran 'should' have an impact, directly or indirectly on the price of PMs --- and ... there's a lot to be said about buying @ $1550 instead of wishing I had bought @ $1550

I think it hurts much less than waiting for $1500 and watching it go to $1600 before I commit.

but here I am - sitting ... and waiting till tomorrow morning to make a decision ...


What to do ... what to do ...

[smooth]

[QUOTE=JosephI'm confused

I think the possibilities of chaos with respect to Italy and Iran 'should' have an impact, directly or indirectly on the price of PMs --- and ... there's a lot to be said about buying @ $1550 instead of wishing I had bought @ $1550

I think it hurts much less than waiting for $1500 and watching it go to $1600 before I commit.

but here I am - sitting ... and waiting till tomorrow morning to make a decision ...


What to do ... what to do ...[/QUOTE]

Joseph, for myself I treat gold and silver totally different, and paper and physical are for sure two different things. I've been picking up physical gold along the way. In short, because it is the money of Kings, and to be stuck without, is a risk I'm not willing to take. $1550 could be a very good entry point, I bought some last week. My thoughts are in the very short term there may be some more pain in the paper market for silver (wont touch paper gold here). It's all a gamble, but I hope to use profits to grab some real metal on the other side. GSR will determine the flavor.

I hope Voodoo will continue to come back and share his thoughts with us some more.

[lhslancers3270]

Safe to say COT entrails are now rendered useless.

[Joseph]

Safe to say COT entrails are now rendered useless.

lhslancers3270,

I have no idea what that represents. Translation please ?

[smooth]

lhslancers3270,

I have no idea what that represents. Translation please ?

COT commitment of traders report. Believe Ihsancers is saying the lack of positions can't convey a true market sentiment one way or another?

Please correct me if wrong

[lhslancers3270]

lhslancers3270,

I have no idea what that represents. Translation please ?

The big boys are covering shorts like no time I can remember. This is bullish but they tend to be early so we can see more weakness before the market makes a bottom.

[Joseph]

The big boys are covering shorts like no time I can remember. This is bullish but they tend to be early so we can see more weakness before the market makes a bottom.

Thanks -

I caught the tail end of a Jim Rogers' interview today where he said he would not be surprised to see gold at 1350. I guess we'll see

[smooth]

Rough day yesterday and overseas trading wasn't much better. So if TA can be used in this atmosphere would $23.75 Silver be next support? GSR @58.01

[lhslancers3270]

Rough day yesterday and overseas trading wasn't much better. So if TA can be used in this atmosphere would $23.75 Silver be next support? GSR @58.01

25 then 20-21 then 15ish.