Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - Everyday - One Long Thread

[metalsmtl]

I've decided it's best to consolidate all daily posting's into one long thread. My blunders will now appear in an orderly fashion

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/11/12

Broke the Cardinal rule of a trader yesterday and acted on misunderstood info. Had the info been as I understood, the trade would have been right. Even grizzly traders require mea copas now and then. At least it was not a loss, just took profit way too early.

The big news however was JP Chases announcement of a $2 billion, I suspect it will be more, loss on a hedge that went wrong. My modest experience would suggest a hedge is to mitigate loss, not cause it. Turns out they can afford it, but it is still uncertain if there will be collateral damage. The “ boys” don’t seem to have learned their lessons from 2008. Sounds like compliance jobs will be the next growth sector. This announcement created worry and the stock markets reacted accordingly. Add slower China growth and the metals again moved lower.

[metalsmtl]

I've decided it's best to consolidate all daily posting's into one long thread. My blunders will now appear in an orderly fashion

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/11/12

Broke the Cardinal rule of a trader yesterday and acted on misunderstood info. Had the info been as I understood, the trade would have been right. Even grizzly traders require mea copas now and then. At least it was not a loss, just took profit way too early.

The big news however was JP Chases announcement of a $2 billion, I suspect it will be more, loss on a hedge that went wrong. My modest experience would suggest a hedge is to mitigate loss, not cause it. Turns out they can afford it, but it is still uncertain if there will be collateral damage. The “ boys” don’t seem to have learned their lessons from 2008. Sounds like compliance jobs will be the next growth sector. This announcement created worry and the stock markets reacted accordingly. Add slower China growth and the metals again moved lower.

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/14/12

Markets are very thin and nervous. Solid moves in either direction are possible.

Dollar remains well bid and equities remain well sold. Gold down another $20 and silver testing $28.20 ( minor support). I worry that much of Europe is being priced in. Everyone is betting that the Central banks will be there to add liquidity. I suspect the Europeans will begin to taker softer line on austerity and begin to follow the US model. This should be price supportive to the metals. I realllyyyy would like to see a capitulation in the metals. A feeling that the metals markets are over and quick selling, ideally taking silver below $26 and gold into my target range of $1,420-50. Trucks gassed up.

[Scorpio]

yep, I'm with you, that watch for volume selling in metals, then lock and load,

S

[metalsmtl]

yep, I'm with you, that watch for volume selling in metals, then lock and load,

S

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/15/12

Markets resting today. Better economic numbers from Germany should provide a respite from the selling. Gold needs to hold $1,550 or the $1,520’s are the next level. Equity markets may bounce today after seven day of losses. JP Morgan Chase’s loss although damaging to the retail investor’s psyche , is a minor blip on their bottom line. Metals may move higher today. Like long side intra day.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/15/12

Markets resting today. Better economic numbers from Germany should provide a respite from the selling. Gold needs to hold $1,550 or the $1,520’s are the next level. Equity markets may bounce today after seven day of losses. JP Morgan Chase’s loss although damaging to the retail investor’s psyche , is a minor blip on their bottom line. Metals may move higher today. Like long side intra day.

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/16/12

It took silver about an hour of rest before $28.00 was violated. Gold took the better part of the day but eventually $1,550 gave up the fight. Silver now ready to attack double support at $26.50which if lost should set stage for $22-$24 level. Gold in the low $1,400’s very real target. Something a little different this time. no place to hide. Equities under pressure as markets look forward to the financial mess facing the US after the election. Rates at zero and global growth slowing dramatically. Are we looking at a global Japan model aka 1990’s for the world. I hear the shovels in Utah as the neighbours begin digging the foundations for their bunkers. If you want a hedge buy Smith and Wesson.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/16/12

It took silver about an hour of rest before $28.00 was violated. Gold took the better part of the day but eventually $1,550 gave up the fight. Silver now ready to attack double support at $26.50which if lost should set stage for $22-$24 level. Gold in the low $1,400’s very real target. Something a little different this time. no place to hide. Equities under pressure as markets look forward to the financial mess facing the US after the election. Rates at zero and global growth slowing dramatically. Are we looking at a global Japan model aka 1990’s for the world. I hear the shovels in Utah as the neighbours begin digging the foundations for their bunkers. If you want a hedge buy Smith and Wesson.

Morning Outlook fromt he Trade Desk 05/17/12

Merkel says we stand together, we’ll see. Fed says it may add more liquidity, we’ll see. Everyone bearish the metals, pause. I am still hopeful to see my lower levels but yesterdays news caused the shorts to get nervous and the markets bounced from their lows. All eyes on Facebook IPO, which if NOT successful will not bode well for the equity markets in the short term. The market is very skittish. Prices between $1,535-$1,550 with risk to an upside break on continued short covering, but trend should continue lower. When we have 8 sellers to every two buyers on the retail side, we will have arrived at the lows. Ratio is moving in that direction, but not there yet. You can check out some thought provoking PM articles here - bulliontracking.com/en/blogs/

[Goldhedge]

When we have 8 sellers to every two buyers on the retail side, we will have arrived at the lows. Ratio is moving in that direction, but not there yet.

How do you determine where the ratio is at any given moment?

[metalsmtl]

How do you determine where the ratio is at any given moment?

I run a trade desk that serves primarily retail investors. We've seen alot of selling these last two weeks.

[metalsmtl]

I run a trade desk that serves primarily retail investors. We've seen alot of selling these last two weeks.

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/18/12

Short covering continued in Asia overnight as many got caught. The bad numbers from a regional Fed report yesterday gave many the hope of further Fed easing. There seems to be a consensus building that the US will have to print more dollars to meet the demand coming from Europe. The metals have decoupled recently from the safe haven trade but the dollar is up and so are metals. Will need to be watched closely. Until further evidence this still appears to be a short cover rally. But profit taking on the short Euro trade, US$ has been up for the last eight trading days, may scare more shorts.

[REO 54]

Gold Climbs a Second Day as Europe Concern Boosts Demand..........

"Gold for June delivery gained 1 percent to $1,590.70 an ounce by 7:58 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices are up 0.4 percent this week. Bullion for immediate delivery was 1.1 percent higher at $1,591.70 in London

Gold is up 1.5 percent this year after 11 consecutive annual increases. It slumped the previous two weeks as a stronger dollar cut demand for the metal as an alternative asset. Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded products rose 3.3 metric tons to 2,381.8 tons yesterday, about 1.2 percent below the March 13 record, data compiled by Bloomberg show. "

more at link...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...rb-demand.html

[metalsmtl]

Gold Climbs a Second Day as Europe Concern Boosts Demand..........

"Gold for June delivery gained 1 percent to $1,590.70 an ounce by 7:58 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices are up 0.4 percent this week. Bullion for immediate delivery was 1.1 percent higher at $1,591.70 in London

Gold is up 1.5 percent this year after 11 consecutive annual increases. It slumped the previous two weeks as a stronger dollar cut demand for the metal as an alternative asset. Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded products rose 3.3 metric tons to 2,381.8 tons yesterday, about 1.2 percent below the March 13 record, data compiled by Bloomberg show. "

more at link...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...rb-demand.html

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk

I appologize for the late post. Quebec's wonderful summer construction tactics never miss a beat. 1.5 hours to drive 15 miles today... ouch.

Markets again weaker overnight but only moderately. Traders awaiting tomorrows EU Summit and hoping with all their might that Germany may relent on issuing Eurobonds which should create some short term support for the Euro and an expected increase in metals values. If Germany holds firm, would expect Euro to continue to weaken which may bring the second test of $1,527, which if it occurs will give way, in my humble opinion.

[Joseph]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/16/12

It took silver about an hour of rest before $28.00 was violated. Gold took the better part of the day but eventually $1,550 gave up the fight. Silver now ready to attack double support at $26.50which if lost should set stage for $22-$24 level. Gold in the low $1,400’s very real target. Something a little different this time. no place to hide. Equities under pressure as markets look forward to the financial mess facing the US after the election. Rates at zero and global growth slowing dramatically. Are we looking at a global Japan model aka 1990’s for the world. I hear the shovels in Utah as the neighbours begin digging the foundations for their bunkers. If you want a hedge buy Smith and Wesson.

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk

I appologize for the late post. Quebec's wonderful summer construction tactics never miss a beat. 1.5 hours to drive 15 miles today... ouch.

Markets again weaker overnight but only moderately. Traders awaiting tomorrows EU Summit and hoping with all their might that Germany may relent on issuing Eurobonds which should create some short term support for the Euro and an expected increase in metals values. If Germany holds firm, would expect Euro to continue to weaken which may bring the second test of $1,527, which if it occurs will give way, in my humble opinion.

metalsmtl,

For us newbies, please ...

You still seeing metals drop per your 5/16 outlook ?

thanks
Joseph

[metalsmtl]

metalsmtl,

For us newbies, please ...

You still seeing metals drop per your 5/16 outlook ?

thanks
Joseph

Hi Joseph, never a sure thing, but yes I do. I still feel $1400-$1500 will be attained before this is done. On a brighter note, I expect 2013 to be a big year for the metals.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook From the Trade Desk 05/23/12

Will Merkel blink? The bulls sure hope so. Every appendage on their bodies is crossed. Gold just hanging around $1,550 support, which will evaporate if Merkel stands firm. Should be an active market. Call out your one armed, blind monkeys and start having them throw their darts.

Retail sales up 50% in May over April. Volatile prices the #1 reason.

[Au-myn]

Futures lower this a.m.

http://www.forex-markets.com/indices-quotes.htm

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/24/12

The meltdown should have carried through yesterday, but I assume ahead of any potential announcements from the EU Summit, people covered their shorts. Ok so what was the good news. There wasn’t any hmmm. Metals should have tanked overnight, but as you will note they are up strongly, even after the Fed re-affirmed NO short term easing plans hmmmm

Suspect, two things:

The price for gold in Europe is actually rising in Euro terms and I suspect there is large physical off take in that market. Also Iran has not gone away and I don’t see the Israelis waiting until after the election. From an economics point of view, the commodity complex should and probably will continue lower. One element that trumps fundamental logic all the time is FEAR and there is plenty of that around.

Please note I will be on vacation as of tomorrow, returning to the desk 06/11/12. Posts will resume then.

[SongSungAU]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/24/12

...

Please note I will be on vacation as of tomorrow, returning to the desk 06/11/12. Posts will resume then.

Have a great vacation and enjoy! I will look forward to your posts when you return.

[metalsmtl]

Good morning,

I've returned from an excellent vacation to the southern Unites States - you must visit Goergia one day, beautiful parks and small towns. Anyway, onto the business at hand;

This morning I offer you a high-level, mid-term overview. Currently attending the IPMI conference in Las Vegas. The conference is well attended and consensus appears to continue to be volatile short term markets, focused on dollar value, European consensus and US growth. Majority see higher prices in 4th quarter. These are the pros in the market and I would tend to agree. 2013 outlook is very positive for the metals.

Regular daily posts to resume upon my return to the desk.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook From the Trade Desk 06/13/12

Greek elections coming on Sunday. Suspect after the slapping scene by the extreme right leader that the market may suspect the outcome of the election will leave the door open for a coalition government. Markets feel weak to me but I cant see major short initiatives ahead of the weekend. For a sustained rally in the Euro there must be an agreement for a European Central Bank, with some form of deposit insurance to create stability in the banks. It will take German agreement. So far, Merkle has not blinked but I think she will. There is a lot of dust in the air. If I am right, the metals should lift significantly.

[metalsmtl]

06/19/12

Markets slightly firmer on nothing more than nervousness against the Fed meeting tomorrow and the G-20 meeting Thursday. As I suggested yesterday, I am not backing up the truck to buy, but I also do not want to sweat it out being short. The next two days can break or make a traders month. Even my monkey is sitting quietly eating bananas and awaiting Germany’s expected win over Greece.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/20/12

Very tight ranges as markets await the Fed speak due out around 2 pm. If the Fed disappoints a significant sell-off may occur. If the Fed extends operation twist, there should be an initial updraft, but much of this scenario is already in the market. It will take an outright pledge for QE3 to blow the market higher ( I am not in this camp, but you never can say never with the Fed). I suspect the Fed will extend operation twist for a short period and jawbone that they stand ready to step in if things get worse with the economy. Ie status quo.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/21/12

The Fed did the minimum they could to placate the markets. As Tim pointed out, they extended Twist until the end of the year to bounce over the election time-table and jawboned that they would be prepared to do more if necessary. Fundamentally, as Jon points out the supply/demand picture is firmly bearish. All will now watch what comes out of G-20, which probably also will be more jawboning. Remember the Europeans tend to take the month of August off, major action is unlikely until after Labour Day. The one point to be careful of, prior to shorting the boat, is that the market will be very sensitive to any worsening economic news in fear of the Fed surprising them. This will create frantic gyrations, with the underlying tone being soft. Still in the camp, to take the money when you have it. markets will get thinner as the Summer takes hold. Why sweat the day to day emotions. A bird in the hand pays the rent.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/22/12

Markets finally understood that the Fed did virtually nothing on Wednesday. Yesterdays news of Moody downgrading 15 International Banks, that was pre-announced before the close, added to the continuing selling of the metals. Gold still some $50 away from serious support, however silver is dangerously close to the double bottom of $26.60 ish. A close below this level may set-up move to the $22-$24 range. Would still take the money off the table as we go. Staying short over weekend is not worth the risk, with European news possible while markets are closed. I am watching oil closely. In the last two down cycles, oil was able to maintain the $76 level. A bounce, albeit it may be a dead cat bounce, in oil will be metals price supportive. Scarry world out there, with the “D” word starting to be whispered.

Have a great weekend.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/26/12

Thin and nervous markets yesterday. They tried to break silver below the $26.65 mark but when they couldn’t they tried the other side and scared the shorts. Silver rallied almost a $1. Silver must break down to close below $26.60 for downtrend to accelerate. I am not a chartist but I think the charts would show a triple bottom for silver, which should be at least technically inspiring. G-20 meeting and headline news will keep these markets nervous. Going flat to long at support and letting the market take you short on bounces has proven a good trading strategy.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/27/12

Everything remains quiet ahead of the G-20. Markets should stay in their recent range today but a major news today tomorrow. Supreme Court ruling on Obama Care, unemployment preview, start of G-20 …. Buy the dips today. Cant imagine anyone aggressively short ahead to tomorrow.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/28/12

No sense in guessing on the headlines today. Enough said that any news or no news could cause a significant move. I really would do nothing. Too many crosswinds. If silver approached $26.60 I would buy. If it approached $27.30 I would sell. At these levels I would watch.Stay flat and enjoy watching the German/Italian match at 2:45 ET. Sauerkraut and sausages for one and all.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/29/12

By the skin of their teeth the metals held support at the close. Intra-day silver breached the critical $26.27 level but managed to close pennies above. The metals bounced overnight with gold showing a $20 gain and silver up some .40. it’s a Friday, have trouble seeing the market breach support before the weekend. Would buy the dips to go flat. Next week will be the catharsis for the markets. nothing from the EU should result on an assault on support again and if this happens the dyke may break.

Germans lost. On my way to get some Prozac. My Italian friends (tongue in cheek) have been calling me consistently to offer condolences (aha). As I mentioned to them yesterday, the Germans will eventually own Italy and we can combine the best of both teams. They pointed out that the Germans will also own Spain. Germans should win the next Euro-Cup since they for all intensive purposes will be the only team.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook form the Trade Desk 07/03/12

First the soccer team blinked against the Italians and then Merkel followed right along at the EU Summit. There was no real new concrete action, BUT they did agree on a method for re-capitalizing the European banks AND indicated agreement towards moving to a European Central Bank by the end of the year. There are huge hurdles to overcome to achieve the latter, but the fact that a consensus appeared where in the past these jokers couldn’t agree on the menu, gave International markets “hope” and the shorts got massacred. Most commodities moved up 5% or more, the best one day move since 2009. Is this move real and does it have legs? Would want to see gold close above $1,620 first and then $1,640 to signal a test of $1,700. It serves to prove that taking a position in this market is counter productive. These markets are moving solely on perception. Fundamentals, ie supply demand are firmly bearish. Perceptions of runaway inflation, debasement of global currencies, Israel’s imminent attack on Iran create enough counter balance to ‘drive” a short term trader to drink. Not that most short term traders need the lift.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/05/12

I hope all of our American friends enjoyed their 4th of July celebrations.

The week will continue with thin trading as most traders I know are working skeleton staffs in the US. The EU and England widely expected to lower rates today. Most of the movement will be this morning. The markets continue to expect more Global easing, which is what the metals “need”. Summer trading, THIN, EMOTIONAL and TRICKY. Buy support sell resistance, tight stops.

If you already own gold and silver and are looking for a way to track the performance of your holdings, check out this handy little tracking tool, a free trial is available - www.bulliontracking.com. It was developed by industry professionals and is gaining in popularity very quickly amongst private investors that I know.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/06/12

Metals couldn’t break up through resistance as expected and now may flirt with initial support levels. Gold support $1,578 and silver $27.08. Much will depend on the unemployment data today. Weak job growth, anything under 80,000 may actually be beneficial for the metals as the market will then expect the Fed to step in with new liquidity measures. A strong employment number should create flows into the US$, which should create further selling. Suspect most of the action will be over by noon as the American market continues to be in July 4th holiday mode. These are the kind of days where action by the Fed would have dramatic results. Not expected, but that’s why its called a “surprise”.

[REO 54]

(Reuters) - Copper fell on Friday as the euro stayed weak ahead of job data from the Unites States and as investors feared that interest rate cuts in top metal consumer China this week suggested its economy was slowing severely.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange edged down 0.7 percent to $7,640 per metric ton (1.1023 tons) by 5.41 a.m. EDT, from $7,695 at the close on Thursday.

The metal used in power and construction was on track for a 0.5 percent fall on the week.

China, the euro zone and Britain all loosened monetary policy on Thursday, but underwhelmed by the central banks' moves, the euro fell along with most commodities, while safe-haven gold rose.

"Copper fell mainly due to the dollar, which appreciated quite significantly against the euro after the ECB decision, which put severe pressure on commodities," Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank, said.

The euro stayed close to a five-week low against the dollar on Friday, a day after the interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) dampened the common currency's appeal and the bank failed to take more aggressive stimulus measures. (USD)

"Also the rate cut in China raised concerns that a string of economic data that will be published next week might be significantly weaker than previously expected. One could argue that China's central bank knows something that people don't and bad data would raise more fears of a hard landing in China," Briesemann said.

China's rate cut preceded comments by Vice Premier Wang Qishan that the world's second-largest economy would have difficulty meeting its 10 percent trade growth target this year, which some investors said may signal its is deeper than expected.

"Instead of being encouraged by the central banks' moves, many interpret them as a sign that these governments are worried about their economies," said a Shanghai-based trader.

"Many prefer to play it safe especially ahead of tonight's U.S. non farm payroll data."

KEY JOB DATA

After the raft of interest rates cuts, investors are now focusing even more on what the U.S. Federal Reserve will do at its meeting at the end of the month.

Some encouraging data on the labor market on Thursday tempered expectations the Fed could undertake a third round of bond purchases, known as quantitative easing or QE3, but more weight will be given to Friday's non-farm payrolls report.

U.S. employers probably quickened the pace of hiring last month but not enough to allay worries that Europe's debt crisis is shifting the economy into low gear, economists said in a Reuters survey.

In other metals, aluminum was at $1,929.12 from $1,944 at the close on Thursday; while zinc, used in galvanizing, was at $1,857.50 from $1,854 and battery material lead was at $1,873 from $1,887.

Tin was at $18,865 from a last bid of $18,875 on Thursday, while nickel was at $16,566 from $16,700.

Metal Prices at 5.45 a.m. EDT Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T

Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2011 Ytd Pct

move

COMEX Cu 346.70 -2.45 -0.70 344.75 0.57

LME Alum 1930.00 -14.00 -0.72 2020.00 -4.46

LME Cu 7639.00 -56.00 -0.73 7600.00 0.51

LME Lead 1872.25 -14.75 -0.78 2034.00 -7.95

LME Nickel 16560.00 -140.00 -0.84 18650.00 -11.21

LME Tin 18850.00 -300.00 -1.57 19200.00 -1.82

LME Zinc 1857.50 3.50 +0.19 1845.00 0.68

SHFE Alu 15615.00 -85.00 -0.54 15845.00 -1.45

SHFE Cu* 55810.00 -280.00 -0.50 55360.00 0.81

SHFE Zin 14725.00 -95.00 -0.64 14795.00 -0.47 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8640RP20120706

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/09/12

Metals held the support on Friday, but they look heavy. Economies, globally, look like their worsening quickly. Wise to remember that the markets are very thin, subject to the slightest headline and flash points in various parts of the world. Boring to be safe.

Also, my veteran colleague's input from this morning:

Yes, watching paint dry might actually offer more thrills than the slow grind underway this morning. However, as history bears it out, these are days during which some seemingly bottom-shelf news can spark a stampede to rival Pamplona, and bring with it an equal number of gored players. In any case, after the huge build-up to the EU summit and the Fed, perhaps those who have still not opted to head to the beach for a quick vacation will welcome the respite, if we get one. Earnings season (or the lack thereof) is upon us and one would be well-advised to expect little more than CEO excuses as to why analysts' estimates were missed by..."THAT much." Save for Apple, perhaps. Everyone needs their fruit.

Home on the range(s): Gold $1,550-$1,625 Silver $26.25-$28 Platinum $1,400-$1,500 and Palladium $560-$600
Open question: the euro, certain EU bond yields, and such.
Open and shut case: dollar breakout to the upside. Still some 2 trillion short of demand.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/10/12

Tight range again. Market is susceptible to a break either way. More likely it will hold in range. This is what the Summer doldrums look like, which has been the trading pattern for the last 30 years, with the only exception being August 2011, so far.

[metalsmtl]

Early afternoon outlook from the trade desk 07/11/12

Sorry for the late post, duties called this morning...

Gold market broke its initial support of $1580 yesterday but remained without serious selling conviction. There is a general rule that you don't short a quiet market. Traders shorted the market at $1,620 and $27.80 two days ago. Gold dropped $50 and silver $1. Today the minutes of the Fed meeting will be released and traders will be looking for more signs of easing. They took profits overnight to flatten out. Tough to squeeze out every last dime.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/12/12

The FOMC meeting minutes suggested that the Fed members were divided on adding more stimulus. Not what the metal bulls wanted to hear and the market again softened overnight. It is worth noting that I used the word softened and not collapsed. Again, I am fundamentally bearish, which is a position I have not changed for three months. My cautiousness on being aggressively short, as opposed to trading support/resistance, stems from a long and oldish memory that if the Fed wants to create maximum impact, they never telegraph their punch. If the economy worsens appreciably, I believe, although misguided, the Fed will act, most probably on a Thursday (not today) to create an asset rally into a weekend, so that the talking heads can re-assure the panicked masses. Sounds like a Life Time movie, but that’s what the markets are, a staged performance. The audience is easily distracted and awed.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/13/12

No Friday the 13th cheap shots. There are enough "shots" to be taken at the euro and at China to make for a horror movie already. Speaking of China, I do not buy the official 7.6% figure. Hey, I was born in a Communist country and have the inside "track" on how such stats are 'massaged" by certain bureaus. Meanwhile, the dollar is having a "summer of love" that many will remember for a while. Well, at least the charts don't lie. Newsletter writers who want to sell you gold will say it is smoke and mirrors and but an illusion. Yeah, right.

Home on the (same) range: Gold -1525-1595-neutral unless you are a pro. Silver 26.25-28.00 -bearish as Ted. Platinum 1400-1500 -buy near lows. Palladium 560-600 buy x 2 near lows.

PS - If gold does not soon test 1525 we could have a breakout and pop even beyond 1640 to try 1700 before resuming that which has been in the making since the snows were melting.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/16/12

China posted 7.6 % growth. Barely whats needed. The markets responded enthusiastically, with a major stock market rally on Friday. Bear trap ?? gold should hold $1,578 initial support, but if we lose it on a close basis, $1,550 will come into play again. You cannot keep attacking support, without it eventually giving way. On a positive side, support MUST be breached before long or the pros will start to see if resistance has the same backbone. A breakout is coming, that much I feel comfortable about. Will logic or emotion win out. Logic suggests down, but emotion carries more fire power. Buy support levels. Sun set at 8:22. Days are getting shorter and so is the range.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/17/12

All eyes on Bernancke. Any bad economic numbers give the bulls hope that QE3 will materialize. Yesterdays poorer retail sales numbers and the fact that Bernancke speaks today was enough to push the bears to run for cover. $1,578 held almost to the penny, followed by a modest $15 move. If Bernancke suggests the Fed will be there if necessary, the markets should sell off. He may however make a more forceful statement which will be price positive and also give the markets support whenever further bad numbers come out. And they will. If you are convicted to this market, it will eat you alive. Its thin and emotional. Its like playing blackjack and doubling down on every bet. The odds are you will eventually win, but you may run out of money before the winning hand is dealt.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/18/12

Bernanke says squat. Government begs him to do something as they finally admit their incompetence. That leaves the market heavy but vulnerable to a Fed surprise. Conclusion: trade the range with tiny exposures.

If you already own metals and want to track their performance accurately check out www.bulliontracking.com/en/

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/19/12

Everything being equal, the market should be lower this morning with gold closing below $1.578 yesterday. It isn’t. Traders are nervous about being aggressively short. A little bravado can cost you a weeks profit. I know its boring, but close to the vest is the only way to play thin markets. a black number at the end of the day makes watching the paint dry almost bearable. I continue to stress that these markets are the NORM for the Summer months. the action will return, that I can guarantee.

[Joseph]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/19/12

Everything being equal, the market should be lower this morning with gold closing below $1.578 yesterday. It isn’t. Traders are nervous about being aggressively short. A little bravado can cost you a weeks profit. I know its boring, but close to the vest is the only way to play thin markets. a black number at the end of the day makes watching the paint dry almost bearable. I continue to stress that these markets are the NORM for the Summer months. the action will return, that I can guarantee.

Thanks metalsmtl - I always appreciate your input here. I've been here long enough now to almost understand some of the stock market vernacular. Myself, I'm laying low and watching the paint dry.
thanks again

Joseph

[metalsmtl]

Thank you for the kind words Joseph, I'm glad you enjoy the posts and rest assured I will continue so long as I'm in the game!

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/20/12

Sometimes, there isn't much to report, as is the case today; Ditto yesterdays comment. Would expect most if not all movement will occur by noon. I would flatten out on any weakness. Don’t suspect market will be aggressively short or long over weekend.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/23/12

Greek default talk serious this time. Spanish bailout talk serious this time. Italian stocks socked by 5% -a serious sell-off. Metals in a serious slide on all of that. Go figure. The US dollar flexing some serious muscle. Fundamental logic continues to point lower. I still like the 'take it off the table as you go' plan.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/24/12

Markets again should have sold off more aggressively yesterday but were met with buying support at the lower end of ranges. There is a large short position in the market on silver and although I agree with the logic of this trade, the downside break MUST occur soon. If anything changes and these “pros” reverse positions, in this thin market, the upside surprise could be big. The Euro flirted with the 1.20 level and stocks took a hard hit early and continue weak this morning. Something is holding this market. The wedge is getting tighter by the day. Caution continues to be the key word.

[metalsmtl]

Late Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/25/12

Maybe if I say it wont happen, it will. These markets are proving extremely resistant to what should be a significant drop. If this pattern showed itself in a non Summer, thin market, I would be very bullish. Its probable that the traders are just picking off short term swings with the market showing no volume conviction. Metals begin this morning in the middle of the range, a probable test of $1.610-20 and $27.45 would be in the cards, if the pattern remains consistent.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/26/12

A few comments from Europe yesterday. A central bank of last resort is playing again. Draghi talks about more bond buying, guaranteeing the survival of the Euro. Euro moves up, dollar down and traders jump. Gold held first resistance at $1,610 yesterday and today touching $1,620. If the Fed joins the party now, we have seen the low. To early yet to call it, but if we close over $1,627, expect test of the $1,650-70 range. There are big short positions out there. Add a thin market and the surprise I mentioned two days ago may become reality.

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/27/12

European Central Bank suggests intervention to bring down bond yields in Spain/Italy. So far between yesterday and today it has all been “words”, with no definitive action yet. The markets, so far, like the "words", but will not be patient for long. For now the play is to be long the metals and equities. Caution: “words” will not hold this market.

If you already own metals, check out www.bulliontracking.com, they offer essential tracking tools to precious metal investors.

Have a nice weekend, enjoy the Olympics!

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/30/12

Last week before Europe closes for the month of August. Specific policies will need to be delineated this week to bolster the bravado, that the Euro will survive at all costs. Weakness should be bought as I find it difficult to believe aggressive short positions will be in play this week. Day trading will be the flavor this week but most of the focus will be on the gold and silver offered in London. A thin market may cause some fireworks in August, but September is the focus month.

Go (insert your country)!

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/31/12

Major expectations baked into these markets, both on the equity and commodity sides. European meetings on Thursday where major initiatives to support the Euro and the banking system are “expected” to be announced and now an “expected” (not hoped for) action by the Fed has been the structural support for these markets. As suggested last week, these expectations have scared “some” of the shorts, with silver up almost $2 from the low and gold adding a healthy $75. The action that will “need” to be announced, “must” be announced and be “credible”. Or these markets will go down faster than (fill in your favorite joke).

[metalsmtl]

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/01/12

Just a little talk that the Fed would wait until September took the edge off the metals yesterday. The real story will be the European meetings tomorrow. Play it like a weekend, I am desperately searching for a better analogy than Twiggy. Any help would be welcome.