anyone paying attention to crude prices?

[Scorpio]

they have been slip sliding away since they peaked at 110, now down to under 95 and continuing the slide,

http://www.goldismoney2.com/custompage.php

for now it needs a bump up to bleed off some of its oversold condition, before it can move down much lower.



very important IMO for direction re the election coming up,

you can see how it is tapping on support from the last decline, before it started its move up,
I am thinking this time it penetrates that support

this and SM's

we are into summer seasonal already on SM's, due to any number of factors including Europe,

this also is reflecting gold and silver prices heading down

[JFN111]

Normally we all cheer dropping gas prices.
If the prices are dropping because demand isn't there due to lack of jobs and money then the lower cost becomes a reflection of the economy.
With the US unemployment rate hanging around 8% (probably really 18%) and the EU hanging around 10.2% that's a lot of people that don't need to fill their tanks up to commute to work.

[REO 54]

......yet out here in the west coast we are having pump prices increase again.I think it went another .10 over the weekend.The are claming
that are refinerys are to blame for lack of production due to maintenence issuses.Most if not all of our oil is from Alaska,N slope crude.

[Scorpio]

REO,

refinery run rates are actually up to 86% now,

so it is interesting how they spin it,

we have also not seen any price decreases here in gasoline,

had to buy propane not long ago, and prices there were surprisingly high also when compared to what has
happened in the NGas markets.

as you state, no one notices if crude moves around, so unless the others see some decent decreases, it will hurt oatsama

Scorp

[gringott]

Price has been dropping here, about 20 cents in two weeks.
I have watched the gold price fall directly with the crude price.

I personally think there is a real drop in demand for fuel, we now have the same number of people in the workforce as 1981. That means millions less driving to work every day, hence no demand.
Since they lie about every unemployment number, work force participation is the one to watch it seems.

[odie]

......yet out here in the west coast we are having pump prices increase again.I think it went another .10 over the weekend.The are claming
that are refinerys are to blame for lack of production due to maintenence issuses.Most if not all of our oil is from Alaska,N slope crude.

This! In the bay area gas prices have gone up by 30-40 cents in the last 2 weeks or so, and we get our fuel locally. Their reason... http://www.mercurynews.com/traffic/c...-rise-bay-area

Prices have soared by as much as 16 cents a gallon at some Bay Area stations since Monday, as several refiners in California have reduced production for maintenance and repairs. It's a West Coast-only trend, as prices nationally continue to ease, with crude oil prices on Friday falling below $100 a barrel for the first time since early February.

[Pyramid]

I've been watching crude as well (gas futures not so much, however). Price going down everyday for over a week now ($94.16 as I write), as has gas prices at the pump until today. Went UP a few cents, WTF? I don't think the CA refinery situation effects me much, if at all. But leave it to the industry to engineer some excuse in the name of profits, such as the seasonal transition from "winter" to "summer" blend.

Also been watching the yield on 30-year T-Bills for a few weeks now. Yield bounced upwards off of 3.12 several times before being breached. Plunged to 2.95 at the close today. Fiat has seemingly no place to hide right now, including metals. Beginning the steady accumulation of hard assets is probably not a bad idea right now, but this summer is shaping up to be a potentially really rough one IMHO. Good luck out there folks.

[REO 54]

Russia Stocks in Bear Market as RTS Tumbles 20% From Year High.....

"Oil fell as much as $2.48 to $93.65 a barrel in New York, the lowest intraday price since Dec. 19. Russia-focused equity funds recorded this year’s biggest outflows for the week ended May 9, posting redemptions of $188 million, according to EPFR Global. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev plans to present President Vladimir Putin with his proposed government candidates tomorrow, RIA Novosti reported.

“Oil is still not offering support to the market,” Andrey Kuznetsov, an equities analyst at Citigroup Inc., said by phone from Moscow. “There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the new government cabinet. If the new cabinet consists of market- oriented people, the market will rejoice.”

more here....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...year-high.html

[REO 54]

Oil Falls to Five-Month Low on European Economy, U.S. Stockpiles...........

Oil fell from the lowest settlement in almost five months in New York before reports that may show U.S. crude stockpiles rose to the highest level in 21 years and Europe’s economy shrank.

Futures slid as much as 0.9 percent, declining for the ninth time in 10 days. U.S. crude stockpiles probably climbed 1.5 million barrels last week to 381 million, the most since August 1990, according to a Bloomberg News survey before government data tomorrow. Europe’s economy contracted last quarter for the first time since the final three months of 2009, a separate survey showed before a report today.

“There’s nothing in the oil market that is giving support,” said Jeremy Friesen, a commodity strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. “Clearly people are going to focus on rising oil stocks in the U.S. It’s expected prices would fall as inventories build to these levels.”

Crude for June delivery fell as much as 87 cents to $93.91 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $94.28 at 10:21 a.m. Singapore time. Prices dropped 1.4 percent to $94.78 yesterday, the lowest close since Dec. 19, and are down 4.6 percent this year.

Brent for June settlement slid 45 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $111.12 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract’s premium to West Texas Intermediate was $16.84, compared with $16.79 yesterday and the highest gap based on closing prices since April 13.

U.S. Crude Supplies
U.S. oil stockpiles advanced for an eighth week in the seven days ended May 11, according to the median of nine analyst estimates before the Energy Department report. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the New York oil contract, are projected to climb to the highest level since the department began tracking inventories at the hub in 2004.

Cushing stockpiles increased before Enbridge Inc. (ENB) and Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) reverse shipments on their 150,000-barrel-a-day Seaway pipeline this week. The line may ease a glut of crude in the Midwest by carrying it to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

U.S. gasoline at the pump fell below year-earlier levels for the fourth straight week. The national average price for regular gasoline dropped 0.9 percent, or 3.6 cents, to $3.754 a gallon from a week earlier, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly retail report yesterday. The price was down 5.2 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since Feb. 27, the agency said.

European Outlook
Gasoline for June delivery fell for a fourth day, sliding 1.3 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $2.946 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange today. Prices settled yesterday at the lowest level since Feb. 2.

Oil also slid on concern Europe’s recovery has stalled amid a debt crisis. The region’s economy shrank 0.2 percent in the three months to the end of March, according to the median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg before today’s report. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded 26 Italian banks yesterday, citing weakened earnings and the country’s economic outlook.

Greece, without a government for more than a week and with 10-year debt yields of more than 25 percent, decides today whether to pay 436 million euros ($559 million) to bondholders who shunned a debt swap last month. Talks between the nation’s main parties following May 6 elections have failed to reach agreement on forming a coalition.

Oil investors are “pricing in the risk of a reduction in demand, and doing that against a backdrop now when supply and inventory are fairly comfortable,” said Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “In Greece, it’s a very uncertain outcome. We certainly have to count as a possibility that we could see another crisis of confidence for consumers and investors.”

The European Union accounted for about 16 percent of the world’s oil consumption in 2010, according to BP Plc (BP/)’s Statistical Review of World Energy. The U.S. accounted for 21 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ramsey Al-Rikabi in Singapore at ralrikabi@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net

link...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...in-survey.html

[Goldhedge]

Pssst... it's an election year....


I remember they regularly 'advertised' prices were going to go up about 4 months ago as if they were 'clairvoyant' or something...

Well, they couldn't bring them down from where they were 4 months ago because that would mean $2/gallon gas. They went up, so they could come down just before votes are cast.

[latemetal]

I tend to watch the gallon of gas to ounce of silver ratio, Spot Silver(28.72-1/$3.47=7.988), it's my own little buy and sell indicator. I also like the grams gold, ounces silver to oil ratio.

[WhyKnow]

Gas is UP to $4.45+ here in the northwest. Sick, man. I think it's part of agenda 21 getting folks to move closer to work.

[REO 54]

Brent Crude Declines Below $105 First Time Since December.....

Brent oil declined to its lowest in five months before a report that may show U.S. stockpiles climbed to the highest level since 1990 and after economic confidence in the euro area fell more than forecast.

Brent futures dropped below $105 a barrel in London for the first time since Dec. 20. In the U.S., prices are heading for the biggest monthly drop in more than three years. American crude inventories rose 800,000 barrels to 383.3 million last week, according to the median estimate of eight analysts in a Bloomberg News survey before the Energy Department report tomorrow. Economic confidence in the euro area fell to its lowest since 2009, a European Commission report today showed.

“Investors are pulling out with increasing problems in the euro zone,” said Thina Margethe Saltvedt, an analyst at Nordea Bank AB (NDA) in Oslo. “That’s pulling the market lower. The U.S. market seems to be more-than-well-supplied.”

Brent oil for July settlement fell as much as $2.14, or 2 percent, to $104.54 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $104.96 at 1:17 p.m. London time. The European benchmark contract’s premium to West Texas Intermediate narrowed to $15.59 from $15.92 yesterday.

WTI crude for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down $1.39, or 1.5 percent, at $89.37. The contract yesterday slid 10 cents to $90.76, the lowest close since May 24. Prices are down 15 percent this month, the biggest drop since December 2008.

Fuel Supplies
Oil in New York has long-term technical support at $89.83 a barrel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. On the weekly chart, that’s the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the drop to $32.40 in December 2008 from an intraday record high of $147.27 in July that year. Buy orders tend to be clustered near chart-support levels.

“Demand out of the U.S. and the euro zone has been very soft,” David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said in a telephone interview. “For the foreseeable future, barring any supply-side shocks, oil will stay around $90 a barrel. If there’s going to be any movement, it’s not likely to be up.”

U.S. gasoline stockpiles probably fell 250,000 barrels last week, according to the Bloomberg survey before tomorrow’s Energy Department report. Distillate supplies, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, will likely remain unchanged at 119.5 million barrels, the survey shows.

Gasoline Pump Prices
The American Petroleum Institute will release separate inventory data today. The API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department for its weekly survey.

U.S. gasoline at the pump fell below year-earlier levels for the sixth straight week, the Energy Department said in a weekly retail report yesterday. The national average price for regular gasoline dropped 4.5 cents to $3.669 a gallon from a week earlier, it said.

BNP Paribas cut its 2012 price forecast for New York crude by $7 to $100 a barrel, and its estimates for Brent by $4 to $115 a barrel, as Europe’s debt crisis worsened, according to an e-mailed report. Prices will still advance in the third quarter because of sanctions against Iran and shrinking spare production capacity in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the bank said.

Economic confidence in the euro area declined in May to the lowest since October 2009. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 17-nation euro area fell to 90.6 from a revised 92.9 in April, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That’s below the 91.9 forecast by economists, according to the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss at sev@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...year-high.html

[Scorpio]

yep,

and crude here is now under 90,

the spread between lt sweet and brent is still huge,

S

[REO 54]

.....update...

Stocks Fall as Dollar Rallies Before Jobs Data; Oil Drops

Stocks tumbled, the Dollar Index (SHCOMP) rose to a 21-month high and German note yields fell below zero for the first time before the monthly employment report. Brent oil dropped below $100 a barrel after Chinese manufacturing slowed.

The MSCI All-Country World Index (MXEF) declined 0.6 percent at 7:14 a.m. New York time, a third day of losses, while futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 1.1 percent. The Dollar Index climbed 0.3 percent to 83.305, rising to the highest since August 2010. The yield on Germany’s two-year note dropped to minus 0.002 percent, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield sliding to an unprecedented 1.5223 percent. The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 commodities slipped to a seven-month low. Brent crude sank as low as $99.60 a barrel.

U.S. non-farm payrolls probably rose by 150,000 in May, after the smallest gain in six months in April, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the report today. Data yesterday showed the economy, the world’s biggest, expanded less than initially forecast in the first quarter. A Chinese purchasing managers’ index today showed manufacturing grew less than estimated last month.

“A slew of PMIs from around the world show that the global economy remains weak,” Yusuf Heusen, a sales trader at IG Index in London, wrote in e-mailed comments. “Attention now turns to the non-farm payrolls. After two weaker readings from the U.S. jobs report, analysts are being more cautious.”

Dollar Index
The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, was set for its fifth straight weekly gain. The dollar posted its biggest monthly advance since 2011 last month, beating bonds, stocks and commodities for the first time this year, as investors sought refuge in U.S. assets while Europe’s sovereign crisis worsened. The euro weakened 0.3 percent to $1.2331 today, set for its fifth weekly decline.

Ten-year Treasuries headed for their biggest weekly gain in 2012, with seven-year note yields falling to a record 0.9766 percent. The yield on the German 10-year bund dropped three basis points to 1.17 percent, after earlier sliding to an all- time low of 1.148 percent. French, Austrian, Dutch, U.K. and Finnish 10-year yields also declined to the least on record.

Commodities Slide
The cost of insuring against a failure by the Spanish government to pay debt climbed to a record, with credit-default swaps linked to the nation rising 7 basis points to 606.75. Swaps on Italy increased 14 basis points to 575, approaching the record 602 in November.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index sank 1.4 percent, bringing this week’s drop to 2.5 percent. BP Plc rose 2.7 percent as the U.K. energy company said it will pursue a sale of its 50 percent holding in TNK-BP, Russia’s third-largest oil producer, after receiving unsolicited expressions of interest. Assicurazioni Generali SpA jumped 4.8 percent as two people familiar with the situation said Mediobanca SpA is seeking to remove Generali Chief Executive Officer Giovanni Perissinotto because the investment bank wants to improve the performance of Italy’s biggest insurer.

The drop in S&P 500 futures indicated the U.S. gauge will fall for a third day. The index has retreated 0.6 percent this week. World stock markets lost about $4.5 trillion last month.

The GSCI gauge of commodities fell to the lowest since Oct. 5, bringing the index down 5.3 percent this week, the most since September. Brent crude declined for a fourth day in London, dropping below $100 a barrel for the first time in almost eight months. Raw sugar slid to a 21-month low and natural gas retreated 2.7 percent. Copper dropped for a fourth day in London, losing 0.7 percent.

Asia Stocks
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Honda Motor Co. and Canon Inc. slid more than 2 percent, contributing the most to the 1.1 percent drop in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. DeNA Co., an online gaming company, fell 9.4 percent in Tokyo after the Ichiyoshi Research Institute downgraded the stock. Gree Inc. slid 10 percent.

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index was 50.4 in May, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today. The reading compares with the 52 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 27 economists and 53.3 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

“The weaker-than-expected Chinese data is hurting sentiment,” said Im Jeong Jae, a Seoul-based money manager at Shinhan BNP Paribas Asset Management Co., which helps oversee about $27 billion. The slowdown in China and the U.S. “will give policy makers more wiggle room to stimulate their economies,” he said.

Emerging Markets
Leaders of Italy and the European Central Bank yesterday pushed Germany to give up its opposition to direct euro-area aid for struggling banks, while Spanish bond yields rose to levels near those that prompted other nations to seek bailouts.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell for a third day, sliding 1.1 percent. The Sensex in India sank 1.6 percent and Taiwan’s TAIEX dropped 2.7 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index in China rose less than 0.1 percent on bets of economic stimulus. The Micex Index dropped 0.9 percent, its third straight decline. Hungary’s BUX Index rose 0.6 percent. Benchmark indexes declined 0.5 percent in Turkey and retreated 0.2 percent in South Africa.

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Tilles in London at dtilles@bloomberg.net; Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-advances.html


comment section:

nbg2 6 hours ago 1 comment collapsed Collapse Expand

Put simply, the latest econnomic news out of China is grim. The impact of this news on the markets is likely to be devastating, once all of the nonsense talk about a China stimulus package is dismissed.

Investors need to understand that the government of China cannot stimulate the economy in the manner they did in 2008 without a repeat of the politically damaging inflation. So, any action they take will be minimal.

The equity markets may take some time to get the fact that there will be no one coming to the rescue, but the bond markets will react much quicker -- as they always do. My prediction is that the yield on the 10yr Treasury will pierce 1.50% heading downward this coming morning, and that equities will quickly follow.

Be prepared for the markets to plummet and for June 1, 2012 to be remembers as RED FRIDAY -- to commemorate China's impact on the markets.

[REO 54]

...update....


Oil Falls as Bernanke Says Economy at Risk From Crisis.....

Oil fell after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the economy is at risk from Europe’s debt crisis and the prospect of fiscal tightening, tempering optimism over a cut in Chinese interest rates.

Futures slipped 0.2 percent as Bernanke refrained in congressional testimony from discussing steps the Fed might take to boost growth. Oil rose more than $2 earlier after the People’s Bank of China said the benchmark one-year deposit rate will drop by 0.25 percentage point starting tomorrow.

“Bernanke is keeping things pretty close to his chest and hasn’t signaled any additional accommodative easing from the U.S.,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant. “The Chinese rate cut was good news but we need to see more.”

Crude oil for July delivery declined 20 cents to settle at $84.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the first drop since June 1. Futures are down 14 percent this year.

Brent oil for July settlement decreased 71 cents, or 0.7 percent, to end the session at $99.93 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The drop in New York oil accelerated after the settlement. Crude was down $1.53, or 1.8 percent, at $83.49 at 4:45 p.m. in electronic trading on the Nymex.

“I think we’re seeing an emotional reaction,” Evans said. “There’s a real sense of a letdown after we weren’t able to sustain gains from the Chinese rate cut and we didn’t get anything to lift the market from Bernanke,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

Bernanke’s Warning
Bernanke warned lawmakers that “a severe tightening of fiscal policy at the beginning of next year that is built into current law -- the so-called fiscal cliff -- would, if allowed to occur, pose a significant threat to the recovery.”

Bernanke will lead the Federal Open Market Committee in a policy-setting meeting June 19 and 20 that will confront the slowest employment growth in a year and a worsening debt crisis in Europe. The central bank said yesterday in its Beige Book business survey that the U.S. economy maintained a moderate pace of growth from early April to late May.

Chinese banks can offer a 20 percent discount to the key lending rate, up from a previous 10 percent. Lenders will for the first time be able to offer savers deposit rates that are up to 10 percent higher than the benchmark.

“The initial reaction to the Chinese rate cut seems to have run its course and now we’re returning to all the uncertainty that’s sent prices lower,” Evans said.

Debt Crisis
Oil in New York, which fell 17 percent in May for the biggest monthly drop in more than three years, may rebound if policy makers take steps to contain the European debt crisis and counter weaker economic growth in the U.S. and China, Goldman Sachs said in a report e-mailed today.

Goldman reiterated its call to buy West Texas Intermediate crude futures for September delivery. The recommendation, first made on Feb. 22, has so far generated a “dismal” loss of $22.72 a barrel, David Greely, head of energy research in New York, said.

The pending European Union oil embargo on Iran is another area where government policy will affect the crude market by tightening the amount of supply available, Greely said. The sanctions are set to go into effect on July 1.

The bank forecasts in a worst-case scenario that Iranian exports drop to 1.1 million barrels a day, about 1.3 million barrels less than in 2011, according to the note. Its baseline view is calling for a daily decline to 1.6 million barrels.

Japan’s Cabinet is poised to approve a bill giving sovereign guarantees for the nation’s oil tankers loading Iranian crude, potentially undermining sanctions targeting the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear program.

Japanese Bill
The government plans to provide as much as $7.6 billion so that ship owners and petroleum refiners can maintain insurance when hauling crude from Iran, according to two government officials with direct knowledge of the law, who declined to be identified before the Cabinet gives consent to the legislation as soon as tomorrow.

The bill will be submitted to the Diet, or national parliament, after the Cabinet endorses it, they said.

A law signed by President Barack Obama on Dec. 31 blocks countries’ access to the U.S. financial system if they can’t show they’re reducing oil imports from Iran. Japan and 10 European nations received exemptions in March for a renewable period of 180 days.

U.S. Supplies
Gasoline stockpiles climbed 3.35 million barrels to 203.5 million in the week ended June 1, according to an Energy Department report yesterday. Demand for the fuel dropped 3.2 percent to 8.65 million barrels a day.

“The fundamentals point to lower prices,” said Kyle Cooper, director of commodities research at IAF Advisors in Houston. “The gasoline build was huge and demand terrible.”

Electronic trading volume on the Nymex was 584,570 contracts as of 4:43 p.m. Volume totaled 647,809 contracts yesterday, 15 percent above the three-month average. Open interest was 1.46 million.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net