Will Silver ever get to $200

[TiKi]

Yes I know "But the dollar will be worthless, you can't measure the future price of silver by the USD" ,yada yada. Enlighten me

Will silver get to $200?

I say yes, What say you?

[Tinbox]

Pretty much a guaranteed 100% that it will get to $200 at some point. However if it takes 50 years then it wasn't really that great an investment.

in 1912, the average silver price for the year was .62 cents per oz. so the price of silver has increased about 4300% in the last 100 years. Assuming equal growth over the next 100 years the price will be $1,135 in 2112.

Ofc i think the value of silver in relation to other things is actually more important than its relation to the dollar. Silver could be at $200 and you may actually not have done that well on the investment. If housing/gold other commodities went up higher percentages.

[Tinbox]

Btw, I think the only chance that silver doesn't get to $200 is if the currency is re-valued. Say turning in 10 dollars for a "new" dollar or something like that.

[andial]

No friggin way.

[Oz Waver]

Tinbox nailed it. 100% agreed.

[Silver Art]

Nope. No $200 silver, Even if I am wrong and silver does get to $200, then I will not be alive to see silver get to that point.

[Gcubed]

In our lifetimes?

[Silver Art]

In our lifetimes?

I do not think that I will see $200/oz silver in my lifetime (currently 38 years old).

[Gcubed]

I do not think that I will see $200/oz silver in my lifetime (currently 38 years old).

Me neither and I got some years on ya.

[Chester-Copperpot]

Not in my lifetime(34). I'm hoping to see $50 in the next ten years. That for me is a realistic figure. I'm just stacking now, as I'd rather see a 20% increase, than leave it in the bank. Anything more is a bonus.
All these articles and jokers stating to the moon, and $150 silver by 2013 need there head checked. Not saying it can't happen, but $5 silver by 2013 could also happen.

[TiKi]

Silver moved some 450% in 2 1/2 years. Gold some what? 180%. From the low to the high. Just saying.

My ultimate Goal when I started stacking years ago was:

Au: $5000
Ag: $200

[curmudgeonista]

I don't think $200 silver is outlandish... but at the same time, if it happens, expect to pay $100,000 for a Honda Civic.

[TiKi]

I don't believe in that inflation argument, that gold and silver up move will mirror all other tangible assets. I'm banking on a mania.

I witnessed the "mini" mania first hand . I was going to a local coin show every month when silver was making it's way to $50. Everyone was buying silver like crazy. I was selling and buying gold. But I witnessed all the newcomers preaching the "too the moon" BS. Guess what no more coin shows now in my city. But they'll be back.

What will propel Silver over $200 will not be the inflation or the lack of supply but the Emotion behind it. Guaranteed

[Au-myn]

Yes.

When Au has a Gamma Spike to $7500+ Ag will hit $200+.

[Fawlty]

I see silver passing 200 once supply becomes less available and it's uses become more numerous. Both are happening right now. What a lot of people seem to forget is that there is a finite supply and an ever growing appetite by nations and people for resources. Wealth in the future will be in tangibles...in resources. Metals, land, food, timber, oil etc... All it will take is one catalyst to send precious metals much higher.

[~BS]

I dont think it's too out of this world. The dollar amount sounds big, but the dollar amounts get larger in relation to the same % price movement as prices go upwards.

The move from $4 silver to $20 silver would be similar as going from $27 silver to $135 silver.


And the poll is such an open question, and inflation is a certainty over the long run, so the only real answer would be yes.

[~BS]

Silver moved some 450% in 2 1/2 years. Gold some what? 180%. From the low to the high. Just saying.

My ultimate Goal when I started stacking years ago was:

Au: $5000
Ag: $200

And coinage moved 2000% in 50 years. (assuming 20x face) Not a hard stretch to see it go another 2000% in the next 50.

[smilershouse]

I will call $200 +, , , , , , , , , , , ,during the next 24 months. Even more when the banks of the world become insolvent during the next 24 months.

SH

[Riskfactor]

If it does, most of the rise will happen in a few days.

[Tiger44]

Knowing Silver, it'll go to $199 (with everyone waiting to sell at $200) then drop back to $25 within a few days/hours.

[orovicino]

Pretty much a guaranteed 100% that it will get to $200 at some point. However if it takes 50 years then it wasn't really that great an investment.

in 1912, the average silver price for the year was .62 cents per oz. so the price of silver has increased about 4300% in the last 100 years. Assuming equal growth over the next 100 years the price will be $1,135 in 2112.

Ofc i think the value of silver in relation to other things is actually more important than its relation to the dollar. Silver could be at $200 and you may actually not have done that well on the investment. If housing/gold other commodities went up higher percentages.

Exactly, if one oz buys you a lunch now, one oz will buy you a week in a condo on the beach.
since the vast majority in our cities will be poor having had their money in some BANK.
Consider yourselves fortunate for having the foresight to exit the banking system in favor to PM

[<===Foolsgold]

Yes silver will hit $200, in the year 2525!!

[GOLD DUCK]

QWAK,$200.00 is a relitive amount and must be concidered in reference to curent context which is a moving target and it will NOT be ware it is now in just a fiew years!

The FIAT system based on DEBT that will not and can NOT ever be repayed is crashing all around us every ware SOooooooooooooooo the GREATER reality and question should be IF/WHEN the global reality arives at the conclusion that ALL FIAT curencies are a SCAM and it becomes generly accepted knolage WHAT will an OZ of SILVER or GOLD buy when almost NONE of the people have any?

TPTB are trying to make it happen slowly so the public can gradgualy adapt BUT the DEBT must expand expotentialy to maintain INTEGRITY of there HOAX system.

We have passed the point of no return and debt can no longer be serviced by governments at all levels every ware SOoooo it comes down to a simple equasion ---- YES an OZ of SILVER will soon buy what $200.00 now buys and IF you don't have an OZ of SILVER you will be S**T out of LUCK and probably HUNGERY too!

the DUCK

[cpthnsolo]

Knowing Silver, it'll go to $199 (with everyone waiting to sell at $200) then drop back to $25 within a few days/hours.

Excellent post... Thankfully I learned a lot during last year's spike. I traded into gold when silver was at $40, $43, and $44 and I remember being disappointed when I saw silver at $48 just a couple days later. I felt like I made a big mistake. Needless to say a week later I realized just how lucky I was on my last trade so hopefully in the future I won't ever get stuck on a certain number.

As for $200 silver, I sure as he77 hope we don't see it. That would mean very bad news for country :\

[RoadKing]

If Obama happens to get re-elected, then I believe we will see the collapse of the American dream by the end of that term. Our debt will be approaching $22 - 23 Trillion. Europe is approaching that edge already.

I believe we will see Silver at $200. Once this FIAT bubble bursts, and we know it's on it's last leg, the rocket will take off.

JMHO,
RK

[curmudgeonista]

If Obama happens to get re-elected, then I believe we will see the collapse of the American dream by the end of that term. Our debt will be approaching $22 - 23 Trillion. Europe is approaching that edge already.

I believe we will see Silver at $200. Once this FIAT bubble bursts, and we know it's on it's last leg, the rocket will take off.

JMHO,
RK

I'd say, by the time the fiat bubble actually bursts it will be too late to get silver except in payment for other goods and services. The market tends to price-in future expectations. So, when J6P begins to realize the end is in sight it will almost be too late already. If you have silver at that point, I doubt you'll want to trade it for shin-plasters.

But... we're not there yet...

[TiKi]

In the last spike I traded some of my silver buffalos for full sovereigns with a fellow on kitco. I asked him why he was trading his gold for silver " cause it is going to keep going up ". Ok? He wasn't new to PMs, goes to show you anyone could be enchanted by the "get rich quick" scheme .I know jog a member here , cleaned him out of his sovs. Those were the first sovereigns I ever took possession of. Nice little coins. Dude hasn't posted back on kitco. I guess you learn not to cheerlead... anything.

You know what, I'm going to go play with my sovs now.

[orovicino]

I don't think $200 silver is outlandish... but at the same time, if it happens, expect to pay $100,000 for a Honda Civic.

That would be true if the majority had the foresight to buy silver. unfortunately for the majority, they will be left out and become poor.
When the majority is poor, Honda will be forced to down size the cars and the price.

However We the minority who bought PM, will inherit what the majority lost, and still drive a new Bently up north and a RR in Palm beach.

[Spike]

Course it will, I read it here at GIM..."All the silver in the world will be mined by 2020"

Just ask the copper guy......

[southfork]

I believe we will see 100 silver and 3k gold in the next 1 to 3 years, the rigging of the markets is going to end, why do you suppose china is reducing the size of their gold bars to 1kg, some speaking of reclassifying gold as a no risk asset, the straw that breaks the camels back could be the chicoms purchase of the lmbe, I would suspect a forensic audit of the books and physical that could send things moving quite quickly, JPM is now awaiting their Lehman moment with reported losses greater than the 2b, now up to 9b, if Ron Pauls bill to audit the fed goes thru the shtf very quickly, there are many catalysts that will contribute to the flight of safety to gold and silver.

[andial]

I believe we will see 100 silver and 3k gold in the next 1 to 3 years,

Those numbers are close to what I am looking for southfork. But Au-myn's call for 200 also has me double guessing myself.

[vintage collector]

I believe we will see 100 silver and 3k gold in the next 1 to 3 years

30:1 ratio. I will take that.

Right on its way to 1:1

[TnAndy]

In our lifetimes?

Hey......I was buying silver rounds 10 years ago for under 5 bucks. That's about a 6-7x rise to today.

Another 10 years, 6 x 28 = 168.

200 ain't much of a stretch.


Lot of you guys simply ain't looking past this week.

[vintage collector]

Hey......I was buying silver rounds 10 years ago for under 5 bucks. That's about a 6-7x rise to today.

Another 10 years, 6 x 28 = 168.

200 ain't much of a stretch.

A d that is without the coverup /price suppression/inflated frn being exposed.

[Gcubed]

Hey......I was buying silver rounds 10 years ago for under 5 bucks. That's about a 6-7x rise to today.

Another 10 years, 6 x 28 = 168.

200 ain't much of a stretch.


Lot of you guys simply ain't looking past this week.

I was pulling silver out of my families vending machine takes as late as the 70's. I was refining the stuff through the 80's. Think I may have some market experience?

[TiKi]

The only way to truly suppress the price of any asset is by actual supply. So I don't buy the manipulation story.
And sorry to say 1:1 ain't ganna happen. Maybe a 0.0001% chance it does.

[andial]

I was pulling silver out of my families vending machine takes as late as the 70's. I was refining the stuff through the 80's. Think I may have some market experience?

I don't have that much experience, but I did just save a bundle on car insurance.

[Fiat Metaler]

threads like this always end badly. often times, folks can't deal with the fact that others have different opinions, or that they might have made a mistake, and their defense mechanisms kick in.

anyway, the question is an odd one, because it defines silver in FRN's. So as many have pointed out, it depends on the number of FRNs to a large degree, among other things.

Silver to a large extent is a derivative of or substitute for gold, or at least it is priced that way very often.

many experts predict gold will still rise, and reasonable prediction range from $5,000 to $15,000. These are from guys like Rickards, Turk, Sinclair, Fields, etc.

So if gold goes to 10,000, then it requires only a 50:1 GSR for silver to hit $200.

And if gold goes to 5,000, then it requires only a 25:1 GSR for silver to hit $200.

Personally i think Gold will eventually get to $10,000, and the GSR to 25, eventually, which implies a $400 silver price. this is not a next year expectation, but at the end of the cycle prediction. it feels like we are in 1974, and my expectation would correspond with a '1980.'

An interesting question to ask yourself is which is less likely - $10,000 gold or 25:1 GSR?

--$10,000 gold. as noted above, this corresponds with the expectations of many experts. Also, gold has returned 10% or more for over ten years. The exact average depends on when you measure, but is probably roughly 12%. If you assume that gold continues to increase in value in FRNs at 12% a year, then gold will reach $10,000 in 14 years. If you assume a higher rate, then it reaches that value sooner:

12% - 17.5 years
14% - 14 years
16% - 12.5 years
18% - 11 years
20% - 10.5 years

So i think it should reach $10,000, although it may take longer than many expect if things don't change. Note that this assumes it is increasing from 1600; if you start at 1900 then it will take only 18-15-13-11-or 9 years.

Even if your target is only $5,000, at 12% it will still take 10 years.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the dollar has been remarkably strong lately as a result of the euro's weakness. this dollar strength weakens the gold price, but is not sustainable imho. so it is likely that the gold value growth rate increases substantially at some point.

--25:1 GSR. The GSR is really a shorthand way of asking many questions, including whether gold will protect your purchasing power better than silver. Its also a way to express whether one metal is expensive or cheap relative to the other. now, discussions of the GSR often become heated, but if you see gold and silver as substitutes for each other it need not. Another way of thinking about this is which will protect your home better - a mossburg 500 shotgun (about $325) or a glock pistol (about $500). Everyone will have their opinion of course, but imagin if the market prices for these tools were volatile and Glocks went to $1000. Surely the ability of the glock to protect you has not increased, and has arguably decreased since you can now buy 3 shotguns for the price of 1 glock. Similarly, if you overpay for a metal, it will protect your purchasing power less well.

If you go back to 1963, a dollar's worth of silver (.715 troy ounces) could be had for a dollar, but today costs about $20.00. An ounce of gold could be had then for $35, but today costs $1600. So silver buys 20 times more today than it did in 1963, but gold buys 45 times. There is no good reason for this (in my opinion), other than the temporary glut of silver when we demonetized silver in 1964 and manipulation. Today, the US Mint has used up the 1964 stockpile and then some. It now consumes more than half of domestic silver production just to produce ASE's. Also, short interest on the Comex is substantially greater for silver than gold, and physical silver purchases are equal or greater than gold. So you have to assume the GSR will eventually revert to the mean, or move in that direction. In fact, a year ago it broke very long term support (1987) at 38, continued down to 32, but has now retraced about half of its gain.

[img]http://www.fgmr.com/images/Images%20Commentaries/Ratio%2011%20Feb%202011.GIF[\img]

Obviously, people can draw different conclusions from the same facts. There is a very lengthy thread in this forum on the GSR, but scant few posts in that thread that address WHY the GSR might go one way or the other. Right now, with the risk-off trade, a little more hot money pours into gold, but then the value in silver is ultimately realized and the GRS decreases. The bigger question is whether the GSR will penetrate its 20th century fiat-paper era average of 47. Well, it already has, in 2011, yet no explanation of this is offered by those who expect the GSR to rise or stay high. Ultimately, you have to go back to the 18th century when the silver standard was ended to understand what a free market GSR ratio should be. The irony in any discussion of the GSR is that proponents of gold contradict themselves--on the one hand, they are out of paper assets because they understand that the fiat paper era is coming to an end, but on the other hand they will look at the history of the GSR only during the fiat paper era. When you have China considering the remonetization of silver, and Hugo Salinas Price lobbying for this in Mexico, you have to understand that historic potential changes are brewing that are not reflected in a GSR chart that reflects prices only from the fiat paper era.

reaching an informed conclusion about the future level of the GSR takes much study. But two things should be easy to take away. First, if you buy one metal, and the GSR moves in the wrong direction, then you have protected your purchasing power less well than if you bought the other metal. Second, there are many factors which favor silver over gold - the higher short position which will eventually have to be covered, the increasing investment demand for silver, and its substantial disconnect between its scarcity above ground and its price (There is about the same amount of silver above ground as gold, but gold costs 50+ times as much.) Below ground, it is estimated that there is only 17 times as much silver as gold, and this is roughly consistent with the historical gold to silver ratio, a ratio that was consistent for a 1,000 years before Christ until the British and U.S. governments set a fixed exchange ratio between silver and gold in the early 19th century.

[Strawboss]

Yes.

When Au has a Gamma Spike to $7500+ Ag will hit $200+.

If gold hits $7500, your projection for silver would be a GSR of 37.5 - much too high in my opinion.
With a GSR of 25 and gold at $7500, silver would hit $300
With a GSR of 20 and gold at $7500, silver would hit $375
With a GSR of 15 and gold at $7500, silver would hit $500.

Personally, I think gold will end up higher than $7500.

[hoarder]

The only way to truly suppress the price of any asset is by actual supply. So I don't buy the manipulation story.
And sorry to say 1:1 ain't ganna happen. Maybe a 0.0001% chance it does.

Paper silver is artificial supply. If 1/4 of the fools who hold paper silver sold it and bought physical silver, what do you think would happen to the POS?

[curmudgeonista]

The irony in any discussion of the GSR is that proponents of gold contradict themselves--on the one hand, they are out of paper assets because they understand that the fiat paper era is coming to an end, but on the other hand they will look at the history of the GSR only during the fiat paper era.

Buried in your post is this lynchpin of your whole argument... and it is likely dead wrong, at least as far as this gold bug is concerned.

While the current state of affairs indicates that the governments and central banks behind fiat currencies can only keep the balls they're presently juggling in the air for just so much longer, that does not, in my mind, harken the end of the paper era. Our fate is in the hands of powers that will never willingly relinquish control of the game.

We may well see currencies collapse, including the Dollar and the Euro, but that doesn't necessarily make it an end-game. Those in control need only hit the reset button. Revaluations, replacement currencies like the New Peso et al, group currencies like the Euro... it's been done many times before. PM's are best served as a store of value, protection against a rigged game. But, gold and silver are not, in this day and age, the arbiters of a transfer of power that you hang your assumptions on. And even if they were, history shows that the power to corrupt is absolute. Revolution merely puts the power to dominate through decree in a different set of hands.

[Fiat Metaler]

Buried in your post is this lynchpin of your whole argument... and it is likely dead wrong, at least as far as this gold bug is concerned.

While the current state of affairs indicates that the governments and central banks behind fiat currencies can only keep the balls they're presently juggling in the air for just so much longer, that does not, in my mind, harken the end of the paper era. Our fate is in the hands of powers that will never willingly relinquish control of the game.

We may well see currencies collapse, including the Dollar and the Euro, but that doesn't necessarily make it an end-game. Those in control need only hit the reset button. Revaluations, replacement currencies like the New Peso et al, group currencies like the Euro... it's been done many times before. PM's are best served as a store of value, protection against a rigged game. But, gold and silver are not, in this day and age, the arbiters of a transfer of power that you hang your assumptions on. And even if they were, history shows that the power to corrupt is absolute. Revolution merely puts the power to dominate through decree in a different set of hands.

i get your point, and i agree with you that some sort of reset is far more likely than a pure bullion standard. but surely you will agree that paper is artificial, and was introduced by govt. in the same way, if you look back at the 18th century, you will see that the rise in the GSR was due to government intervention, not the market. the market had been consistent with a rage of 12-17.5 for three milllennia. so its a contradiction to get out of fiat in favor of gold, but to ignore the artificiality of the silver exchange rate. as Bill Bonner says, you can't guarantee success, but you can deserve it.

anyway, the point is not specific to any goldbug - either the silver-to-gold exchange ratio was wrong for three mlienia and its right now, or it was right then and is wrong now. N.B. that wrong does not mean that correction is imminent; rather it means only that it is inevitable. but in the same way the holder of real assets - even gold - may be right but come up short as a result of government. see e.g. 1933; Khadaffi; etc.

[Gcubed]

The market determines a true ratio, period. The market adjusts and the ratio changes. A ratio determined by FIAT(Government) can and will not hold. Those are some cold, hard, facts of life. Prove me wrong.

[Lt Dan]

"Will silver ever get to $200?"

Only when and if it takes $200 to buy what you used to be able to buy for $1. Then it's actual value might be $200.

[Tinbox]

"Will silver ever get to $200?"

Only when and if it takes $200 to buy what you used to be able to buy for $1. Then it's actual value might be $200.

Does silver only buy now, what $4.50 bought at the end of 2000?

[andial]

Does silver only buy now, what $4.50 bought at the end of 2000?

Negative, it buys a lot more. A L O T more. That is the beauty of Silver and to a lesser extent gold.

[Lt Dan]

Does silver only buy now, what $4.50 bought at the end of 2000?

Just start thinking in terms of hookers and blow and you'll get my idea.

Mother-in-law lives with us, she's 85 (give or take), she made the comment to me about the price of gasoline coming down as I was driving her someplace. I told her, not really, it just seems like it was down because the dollar index was up, makes everything else seem like it is cheaper. It's all related.

[Gcubed]

Does silver only buy now, what $4.50 bought at the end of 2000?

Go back to the 60's. It was used for money back then.

[chief]

Can we get to $50 first, stay there and then surpass that number before we talk about any other value per ounce?

[hoarder]

Can we get to $50 first, stay there and then surpass that number before we talk about any other value per ounce?

$50 ain't worth what it was last time paper silver was in that neighborhood. Next run will test 55 and 60.