Will Silver ever get to $200

[TiKi]

$50 ain't worth what it was last time paper silver was in that neighborhood. Next run will test 55 and 60.

Says who? When silver last hit $50 WTIC was $115 and the USD was at 73. $50 last year is like $44-$46 now. People think inflation is constant, when in reality it is far from it.

[Fiat Metaler]

Negative, it buys a lot more. A L O T more. That is the beauty of Silver and to a lesser extent gold.

that happens because the market price was and is manipulated.

[curmudgeonista]

i get your point, and i agree with you that some sort of reset is far more likely than a pure bullion standard. but surely you will agree that paper is artificial...

Absolutely. Paper (& digital) fiat currencies are artificial. However, they seem to be inescapable in the modern era. And, since I don't think that likely to change, it therefore follows that the prospect of paper relinquishing its influence on the GSR through extinction is a moot point.

As for whether the GSR is more valid under gov't decrees with gold & silver circulating as money or free floating as commodities, it's clear to me that the latter is more meaningful. The existence of some natural ratio assumes the market to be dictated by the supply-side. I believe demand is more relevant, especially with respect to the GSR.

The idea that the demand for silver is inelastic is a stretch for me. I don't believe most of its industrial uses represent anything more than convenience (odor-free socks?). Silver may be the best material currently available for certain applications, but that is within the constraints of price-practicality. Civilization does not hang in the balance.

[RoadKing]

Can we get to $50 first, stay there and then surpass that number before we talk about any other value per ounce?

NO WAY, JOSE...it must go directly to $200.

In all seriousness, I'm with you, in that I'd just like to see it start heading North and continue till it hits da Moon.

RK

[Gcubed]

NO WAY, JOSE...it must go directly to $200.

In all seriousness, I'm with you, in that I'd just like to see it start heading North and continue till it hits da Moon.

RK

What has happened EVERY time silver made a moon shot?

[GOLD DUCK]

QWAK,It is becoming common knolage that the price of SILVER is RIGED and J P Morgan is the bigist riger and that J P Morgan is doing the us Governments bidding so is PROTECTED!

http://www.silverdoctors.com/cnbc-ho...ng-with-libor/

The LIBOR is riged always has been and also the STOCK MARKET, in fact all markets are RIGED and any one that knows any thing about them knows this and NO ONE realy cares as long as the wheels all keep SPINING iike GIROSCOPES nothing falls DOWN or reaches its RIGHTFULL pricing!

Price in FIAT means NOTHING $30.00 or $300.00 no real diference, it's just DIGITS in a computer and they can create all they want in to INFINITY!

The problem is that when people STOP BELIEVING all the SPINING STOPS and the GYROSCOPES all fall over like TOY TOPS that stop spining!

When that happenes and we KNOW that time is geting close ALL that will mater is IF you are holding somthing REAL with HISTORIC INTRINSIC VALUE and GOLD and SILVER will become the ONLY money that is TRUSTED!

How SOON is the only real question and untill it actualy happens the SPINING will continue BUT after it stops is when holding SILVER and GOLD will be like the only winning lottery ticket!

the DUCK

[Mr. Shiny]

Yes, Sludge will hit $200 per with the help of this^^^^^^ Mexican boner pills.

[curmudgeonista]

Yes, Sludge will hit $200 per with the help of this^^^^^^ Mexican boner pills.

Ah, el remitente ha desaparecido tan rápido como llegó.

Muchas gracias los Moderadores.

[orovicino]

YES, see next post...

[orovicino]

YES, but not in dollars but in purchasing power for real estate, travel, maintanence, and
AHH the ultimate, security and peace of mind..

[orovicino]

Ah, el remitente ha desaparecido tan rápido como llegó.

Muchas gracias los Moderadores.

SI,Ma pero, not in dollars but in purchasing power for real estate, travel, luxury items, and Ahh security and peace of mind.

[TiKi]

Si la plata va pasar dos cientos dolares te lo juros cono.
We should be at least double by this time next year.

[Fiat Metaler]

Absolutely. Paper (& digital) fiat currencies are artificial. However, they seem to be inescapable in the modern era. And, since I don't think that likely to change, it therefore follows that the prospect of paper relinquishing its influence on the GSR through extinction is a moot point.

I'm not following your logic.

as i understand your logic, you think the fact that the system is manipulated now makes it more likely that it will continue to be manipulated in the future. OK, i can follow that. but how does that suggest gold over silver? As i see it, they have to work harder to suppress silver here than gold if you look at the short interest on the comex. in other words, they can't suppress silver much further, but there is more room to suppress gold further. so even if you assume a continuation of the electronic fiat standard, there would seem to be much more room for silver to move up than for gold.

Also, industrial demand is growing but largely constant and therefore largely irrelevant. what matters to both metals is investment demand; it de facto increases every time the electronic printing press spits out another digit.

[andial]

What has happened EVERY time silver made a moon shot?

Friggin crimex and their buddies come in with their trader charm and scare the longs out of their positions.

[TiKi]

Friggin crimex and their buddies come in with their trader charm and scare the longs out of their positions.

I think what you mean is "Smart money can see the opportunity to sell high and takes advantage of it".

[curmudgeonista]

I'm not following your logic.

as i understand your logic, you think the fact that the system is manipulated now makes it more likely that it will continue to be manipulated in the future. OK, i can follow that. but how does that suggest gold over silver? As i see it, they have to work harder to suppress silver here than gold if you look at the short interest on the comex. in other words, they can't suppress silver much further, but there is more room to suppress gold further. so even if you assume a continuation of the electronic fiat standard, there would seem to be much more room for silver to move up than for gold.

Also, industrial demand is growing but largely constant and therefore largely irrelevant. what matters to both metals is investment demand; it de facto increases every time the electronic printing press spits out another digit.

I agree that paper is artificial, but not with your assertion that the market, and therefore the GSR, is more controlled now than when the ratio was mandated by decree.

...in the same way, if you look back at the 18th century, you will see that the rise in the GSR was due to government intervention, not the market.

This, to me, seems a complete departure from reality. How can gov't mandated ratios of the past be less interventionist than the current market?

Yeah, yeah, I know... silver is manipulated... yada, yada, yada. The big dogs are gonna' eat. And that applies to most any market, not just PM's. But, you know what? If silver is as undervalued as a lot of folks claim (whether you're counting in dollars, gold, or macaroni salad) the market makers wouldn't be able to get away with it. Not for this long.

Look, I LOVE silver. I LOVE gold. I just hate this unrealistic nonsense the gets floated out there about them. The GSR is an arrow in the sheath of the wise investor, maybe even a battleground. But, if it stands at 58:1 today, then it is what it is. It is not arbitrarily pretending to gauge relative values. It's the straight dope on where we are at here and now.

[andial]

"Smart money can see the opportunity to sell high and takes advantage of it".

That is exactly what I tell people who question Hillary Clinton's cattle futures winnings.

[Gcubed]

Hey Curm, Reality is an anathema to some folks.

[hoarder]

Isn't the very existence of paper silver proof of manipulation? The current POS CANNOT be a reflection of market value because of the existence of paper silver which fills a demand void that would otherwise be filled by real silver.

Paper silver is not silver.


Whether or not the the fact that current POS is not governed by the law of supply of demand constitutes "manipulation" is technical, depending how you interpret it. But no one can say with a straight face that the current POS is guided only by supply and demand.

[Gcubed]

The existence of paper silver is proof of a hedging and speculating market. Neither of them is evil IMHO. Physical silver needs are met on the spot market.

[hoarder]

The existence of paper silver is proof of a hedging and speculating market. Neither of them is evil IMHO.

Dodge and weave. We aren't arguing whether the the market is evil, we are arguing whether or not paper silver fills a demand void for real silver.

Physical silver needs are met on the spot market.

What do you mean by "physical needs"? Part of the demand for silver is as an investment vehicle and safer alternative to funny money, a store of wealth. Your comment implies that the only demand for silver is in manufacturing. I know you know better and it's obviously disingenious.

[lhslancers3270]

Isn't the very existence of paper silver proof of manipulation? The current POS CANNOT be a reflection of market value because of the existence of paper silver which fills a demand void that would otherwise be filled by real silver.

Paper silver is not silver.


Whether or not the the fact that current POS is not governed by the law of supply of demand constitutes "manipulation" is technical, depending how you interpret it. But no one can say with a straight face that the current POS is guided only by supply and demand.

Every market always is and always has been manipulated. I own some Dog myself but much more of the yellow. I'll be selling the Silver first.

[Gcubed]

Dodge and weave. We aren't arguing whether the the market is evil, we are arguing whether or not paper silver fills a demand void for real silver. What do you mean by "physical needs"? Part of the demand for silver is as an investment vehicle and safer alternative to funny money, a store of wealth. Your comment implies that the only demand for silver is in manufacturing. I know you know better and it's obviously disingenious.

Horse$hit. Paper silver is used to hedge physical positions, FACT. Paper silver is used for speculative positions, FACT. Physical silver for holding AND industrial use is sourced on the spot market, FACT. Reality is a real bitch for you, aint it hoarder?

[hoarder]

Horse$hit. Paper silver is used to hedge physical positions, FACT. Paper silver is used for speculative positions, FACT. Physical silver for holding AND industrial use is sourced on the spot market, FACT. Reality is a real bitch for you, aint it hoarder?

More dodge and weave. Paper silver is used for many things, why not adress what I posted? Does paper silver fill a void in the silver market by supplying people who hold it as an alternative to fiat/store of wealth or not?

[hoarder]

Every market always is and always has been manipulated.

This answer always seems to come up when manipulation is discussed as though it ends the discussion, which it does not.

First of all is the degree of manipulation.

Second, many if not most markets are manipulated so that the manipulators can profit from foreknowledge, but PM manipulation is very different in that the main reason to manipulate them is not so much to profit but to SUPPRESS the POS/POG which in turn props up a much much larger market......Federal Reserve Notes.

[Gcubed]

More dodge and weave. Paper silver is used for many things, why not adress what I posted? Does paper silver fill a void in the silver market by supplying people who hold it as an alternative to fiat/store of wealth or not?

Define "paper silver" if you would.

Edit: Never mind hoarder. I could put it in language that a 4th grader could understand and you'd just remain in denial. You obviously just want to bitch and moan. You have a nice evening. I will.

[hoarder]

Define "paper silver" if you would.

Paper silver is any paper investment instruments in general which foolish investors hold as an alternative to real silver because it's more "convenient", but COMEX in particular.

[Gcubed]

Paper silver is any paper investment instruments in general which foolish investors hold as an alternative to real silver because it's more "convenient", but COMEX in particular.

If you trust the warehouse receipt, it's an acceptable alternative IMHO.

[hoarder]

If you trust the warehouse receipt, it's an acceptable alternative IMHO.

More dodge and weave. At least you're consistent.

I don't care if you think it's an "acceptable alternative".


Does paper silver (COMEX) fill a void in the silver market by supplying people who hold it as an alternative to fiat/store of wealth or not?

[lhslancers3270]

This answer always seems to come up when manipulation is discussed as though it ends the discussion, which it does not.

First of all is the degree of manipulation.

Second, many if not most markets are manipulated so that the manipulators can profit from foreknowledge, but PM manipulation is very different in that the main reason to manipulate them is not so much to profit but to SUPPRESS the POS/POG which in turn props up a much much larger market......Federal Reserve Notes.

You might want to go back and read about the Cotton corners around the time of the War Between the States. This stuff has been going on for as long as things have been traded. But it's easy to prey on greed to sell the Silver story. I kinda doubt you'll be buying Trump National with a bag o' junk. The final price we see for Silver will be determined by where Gold ends up topping out.

[Fiat Metaler]

if you define paper pms, as comex contracts, there is more paper silver than paper gold. why?

gcubed, your argument is the same as blythe masters', but i don't buy it. the amount of paper is orders of magnitude greater than legit hedging needs.

if you define paper pms more broadly, there may be 100 claims to each ounce of physical according to some. so that paper is acting as a backstop to absorb that demand, whether you lable that demand industrial, investment, or speculative.

anyway, my point about the 18th century is that you have to go back to when the us govt started intervening in the metals markets - 1792. you can't look at a 4 year or even a 40 year GSR chart and understand what is happening. the ratio went haywire when the u.s. govt created a fixed ratio of gold to silver at 15:1, which was too low because France had set it at 15.5:1. it wasn't new discoveries or gluts or stockpiles but rather govts setting fixed rates that didn't jibe with the market. so the government was involved from the very start. it was not until 1873 that the u.s. went off the silver standard, and then off the gold standard 60 years later. it was the fixing of the ratio at a false number which discredited silver in the 19th century and which discredited the classical gold standard between WWI and WWII.

now, if this manipulation has been going on for so long, isn't the current market price the true market price? No. if it were, the govt would not have needed to remove silver from our money in 63-64 (clad coinage and end to silver certificates). There wouldn't be huge short positions in silver to cap its price.

[andial]

the amount of paper is orders of magnitude greater than legit hedging needs.

Nailed it! Thank you Fiat.

[TiKi]

The final price we see for Silver will be determined by where Gold ends up topping out.

Can't agree with that one. Au/Ag has got to be one of the most emotion driven markets around.
In the last run up Ag topped early May (driven by the little guy)
Au topped early Sep. (driven by big money)

[Fiat Metaler]

The final price we see for Silver will be determined by where Gold ends up topping out.

well, i can't disagree with this, but i will point out its a truism. You could have said that the final price of gold depends on where FRNs (or silver or the Euro of JPY) end up. Becuase they are all money at this time.

FRNs, Gold, and Silver are money. its difficult to express the 'price' of one other than in terms of one of the other. you don't say that gold hit 20 barrels of oil today, you say it hit $1600.

right now, FRNs are dominant, gold is secondary, and silver is tertiary. that's not a revalation; its obvious. it is similarly obvious that FRNs are declining. The only question is which is more likely to ascend more - gold or silver? I guess others might frame the question as 'which is less likely to decline?" or "which is more likely to ascend first?" or "which will more reliably ascend?" and they might answer gold rather than silver. What question you ask obviously influences the answer.

[TiKi]

If you think paper trading will cease think again, the Chinese just bought the LMB.

Fact of the matter is FRNs are appreciating and have been for more than a year. You can play the broken clock game like Prechter , where eventually **** will happen, but that is a losers game.

[Gcubed]

When will a loaf of white bread cost $20?

[Gcubed]

When will a family size Supreme Pizza set you back a C note?

[Gcubed]

When will you have to break out with a fin to get a pack of Juicy Fruit?

[hoarder]

I'm still waiting for Gcubed to answer the question he has so far dodged:

Does paper silver (COMEX) fill a void in the silver market by supplying people who hold it as an alternative to fiat/store of wealth or not?

Come on Gcubed. You told us how many decades of experience you have in PM's. You've been everywhere and know everything. Why is such a simple question so difficult for you?

[Gcubed]

I'm still waiting for Gcubed to answer the question he has so far dodged:

Does paper silver (COMEX) fill a void in the silver market by supplying people who hold it as an alternative to fiat/store of wealth or not?

Come on Gcubed. You told us how many decades of experience you have in PM's. You've been everywhere and know everything. Why is such a simple question so difficult for you?

hoarder, you aren't worth the time. I've answered and you are incapable of comprehending. Kay Sara Sara.

One LAST thing hoarder.

Trust Me!

[kingbee]

I think those that say silver can't get to $200 without severe inflation are in their own little non-reality. Just look at what has happened in the last 12 years. My average price paid for silver is under $7 per ounce purchased in the last 12 years. Last year we hit 49 and I was up close to 9 times. Have we had inflation in those years? Yes. Has bread and gas gone up in price? Yes. But not nearly as much as the silver. It is not a reach at all to say that the future will be similar. History may not repeat but I think it will rhyme once again. Nothing has drastically changed. I believe it has actually gotten worse. The world's economic situation is becoming more unstable. If the future follows recent history then I think silver could easily hit 200 in the next 3 to 10 years and be accompanied by bread at $5.00 and gas at $7 or $8. I think gold will have a similar rise. Since I agree with some others that the possibility of the GSR returning close to the historic norm and the ratio of in ground supply, I am more heavily invested in silver than gold.

[Goldteam]

hoarder, you aren't worth the time. I've answered and you are incapable of comprehending. Kay Sara Sara.

One LAST thing hoarder.

Trust Me!

Answer it again......I never saw your first answer.

[Gcubed]

Answer it again......I never saw your first answer.

Review the thread. I'm not a wet nurse and I don't instruct in reading comprehension.

[TimoneX]

Before I even opened this thread I knew not only the identity of the principle poster, but which side he'd take. Yes I am a beautiful magical butterfly.

Yes an Ozt of silver will eventually be widely exchanged for 200 phunny munny units. The title says ever. That's a very long time...cubed.

[Gcubed]

Before I even opened this thread I knew not only the identity of the principle poster, but which side he'd take. Yes I am a beautiful magical butterfly.

Yes an Ozt of silver will eventually be widely exchanged for 200 phunny munny units. The title says ever. That's a very long time...cubed.

It certainly is. That's why I said/implied, not in my lifetime. I don't deny that it may/will come, some day.

[Mr. Shiny]

... The title says ever. That's a very long time...cubed.

I disagree, the title is semantics, used by a questioner who doesn't like or can't accept the truth.

In the context of the price of a commodity, it is widely held that 'ever' means the lifetime of the person submitting the query.

[TimoneX]

You're certainly entitled to disagree. I fail to see how the OP's view being other than yours is evidence of his/her inability to accept "the" truth. Seemingly here defined as "your" truth.

Apologies. My post was based on the dictionary.com interpretation of the word "ever". Perhaps you have a web based copy of the shillary clinton commodity edition?

ever

ev·er

adverb
1. at all times; always: an ever-present danger; He is ever ready to find fault.
2. continuously: ever since then.
3. at any time: Have you ever seen anything like it?
4. in any possible case; by any chance; at all (often used to intensify or emphasize a phrase or an emotional reaction as surprise or impatience): How did you ever manage to do it? If the band ever plays again, we will dance.

In the absence of the previously mentioned commodity edition definition I would like to hereby propose that we accept the word "ever" to mean until the last human bean in the universe draws his/her last breath. Agreed?

[TiKi]

I'm glad you clowns are well versed in proper grammar, as for I am not. I see a few more bagholders added to the list.

I knew this thread would attract some silver cheerleaders. I prefer Ag over Au but please take your pompoms elsewhere.

[TiKi]

I think those that say silver can't get to $200 without severe inflation are in their own little non-reality. Just look at what has happened in the last 12 years. My average price paid for silver is under $7 per ounce purchased in the last 12 years. Last year we hit 49 and I was up close to 9 times. Have we had inflation in those years? Yes. Has bread and gas gone up in price? Yes. But not nearly as much as the silver. It is not a reach at all to say that the future will be similar. History may not repeat but I think it will rhyme once again. Nothing has drastically changed. I believe it has actually gotten worse. The world's economic situation is becoming more unstable. If the future follows recent history then I think silver could easily hit 200 in the next 3 to 10 years and be accompanied by bread at $5.00 and gas at $7 or $8. I think gold will have a similar rise. Since I agree with some others that the possibility of the GSR returning close to the historic norm and the ratio of in ground supply, I am more heavily invested in silver than gold.

This guy gets it.

[TimoneX]

This guy gets it.

...as does anyone that started buying and holding AG while slick willy was redefining the meaning of the word "is" or before.