Axstones notes technical and fundamental analysis on GOLD

[lunar]

..unfortunately I can't see this video (Mac ) but it must be something


Watch CFTC Webcast On Position Limits Live And "Banging The Close" Free

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2011 09:39 -0500

• Commodity Futures Trading Commission
• Market Manipulat

The CFTC webcast on position limits and how to best preserve the status quo in precious metal market manipulation is starting. Readers can watch it at the following link.

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[Overthehill]

The pantomime participants are sitting as the dollar takes a beating for a second day while gold and silver sink with it.

The usual suspects are sending us a clear message.

[Zed]

--> on support...

Looks kinda like a setup to drive a wedge, USD up, POG down. I still have 129x on the table, an intra week low of 129x with a close over 1328 would be ideal IMO.

The encouraging thing here, if it unfolds, is that it looks like a lot of work has gone into getting gold to this point. It has been one tough MF to break and they have not done it yet. If we get the break it should be an excellent entry for those with dry powder.

It has been a frustrating wait... I hope it bears good fruit in the end!

[DrStrangelove]

The pantomime participants are sitting as the dollar takes a beating for a second day while gold and silver sink with it.

The usual suspects are sending us a clear message.

My message back is 'thanks for the gift', signed -- dry powder

[gramsperton]

Where did this sell off start? Euro. All ya gots to do is follow the money and its moved off shore playing the same games in a market that does not have position limits about to be installed. Western central bankers working together.
I would love to see these charts upgraded after this event.

[gramsperton]

Sorry, spaced this link http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jp-...ulatable-banks

[Aussie]

The pantomime participants are sitting as the dollar takes a beating for a second day while gold and silver sink with it.

The usual suspects are sending us a clear message.

I looked with amazement this morning as the dollar had plummeted a full point, decisively below 80.



Yet after an initial rally gold was plundered $17 in after hours . . . and the HUI got hammered as well.

Obviously gold reacted positively to the dollar drop but the upward price action was looking a little too hot for somebody with deep pockets.

What do make of this Zed?

[Zed]

What do make of this Zed?

A setup for a bloody Friday in Gold ?!

Both the USDX and POG are on support, if the USDX bounces it will not take much of a push to get gold to break down.... my guess is that is the aim.

[Aussie]

A setup for a bloody Friday in Gold ?!

Both the USDX and POG are on support, if the USDX bounces it will not take much of a push to get gold to break down.... my guess is that is the aim.

Oh great. Won't that be exciting . . .

[Zed]

Oh great. Won't that be exciting . . .

Yep... but if it fails they should have built a rocketship. From failed moves come fast moves ----> as they say.

[GoldWampum]

Oh great. Won't that be exciting . . .

A dark horse this way comes. And the Black Rider is behind schedule. Thus far it's a classic set up for a major correction. The only thing preventing it is if the dollar caves soon.

And yes, it would add some much needed excitement. I salivate in anticipation of the moans, groans and whining. No fair, no fair... Manipulation!!!

[Dizzy47]

well obviously the cartel boys got kinda desperate to manage the POG in such a manner like last night in the after market, pretty much obvious to anyone whos
got at least a bit of clue

we'll see whether dip buyers are waiting in line today

[Zed]

I will be buying... just not quite yet

[prophet]

Mondays a holiday...what will they do?

[HardAssets]

For what its worth -- I still show the HUI sitting on support on the big monthly chart.

[scofield]

HUI broken the up channel support. I think it's going for the big triangle apex at 485. That will be very low risk entry point, just like Feb 2010

[Aussie]

Larry's latest . . .

http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/r...-…-10951

[Zed]

... all be it a tentative one. My target still looks achievable and the first week of Feb looks to be the time if correct. It would be nice IMO to set up some divergences as we hit the longer term trend. I suspect the intra day low will tag the 50% fibo retracement of the August to December rally at 1292, but I would like to see 1300 hold on the close.

BTW that USDX is still on the ropes... but it didn't break down... no strong lead there!

Thanks Aussie for reminding me... the phone keeps going off every time I get to Larrys vid! I will go look and see if he wants to make me a liar! I hope he has given up on 1250!

[Zed]

Larry's latest . . .

http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/r...-…-10951

I hate it when he does that....! Looks like he still reckons I'm an 'optometrist'... LOL!

If he is right the HUI is going to into new territory and it will break the current structure coming out of the GFC lows, I would prefer not to see that!

[kiwi_envoy]

Armstrongs latest gold essay.

Not sure I like his 2011 outlook for the PM's.

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files...01-05-2011.pdf

[Zed]

I'm thinking close to 480 for the HUI now, you might not be far off with the 475 Aussie.

[Jodster]

A dark horse this way comes. And the Black Rider is behind schedule. Thus far it's a classic set up for a major correction. The only thing preventing it is if the dollar caves soon.

And yes, it would add some much needed excitement. I salivate in anticipation of the moans, groans and whining. No fair, no fair... Manipulation!!!

Hey Wampum, along with the wailing and gnashing of teeth will be an unusually large chorus of cheers. My Spidey senses tell me that there's a heck of a lot of people with dry powder.... this is one of the last opportunities to get in to physical.

[Dizzy47]

Hey Wampum, along with the wailing and gnashing of teeth will be an unusually large chorus of cheers. My Spidey senses tell me that there's a heck of a lot of people with dry powder.... this is one of the last opportunities to get in to physical.

then it would all depend on where their tasty price objective rests, wouldn't it? i too bet that there is more folks waiting for $25 ag auction to start I know Zed and me...that's two already

[Gcubed]

then it would all depend on where their tasty price objective rests, wouldn't it? i too bet that there is more folks waiting for $25 ag auction to start I know Zed and me...that's two already

25 is good. Bring 'er on!!

[Zed]

...this is one of the last opportunities to get in to physical.

There never will be a 'last' opportunity to get physical!

[Anakin]

There never will be a 'last' opportunity to get physical!

Probably not, but there was in the 1930s, so never say never.

[Zed]

Probably not, but there was in the 1930s, so never say never.

You could acquire coins could you not? You where free to buy gold in most every other country aside from the US could you not? It will only ever be a matter of the price... even if it is illegal where you live.

If you cannot acquire gold then it has not practical value as a currency!

[Gcubed]

Probably not, but there was in the 1930s, so never say never.

There were ways around that order, honest.

[Anakin]

You could acquire coins could you not? You where free to buy gold in most every other country aside from the US could you not? It will only ever be a matter of the price... even if it is illegal where you live.

If you cannot acquire gold then it has not practical value as a currency!

There were ways around that order, honest.

Yes, but only in small quantities. IIRC, Americans were permitted to keep the equivalent of 5 ozt. Au.

[Gcubed]

Yes, but only in small quantities. IIRC, Americans were permitted to keep the equivalent of 5 ozt. Au.

There were legal ways around that too. Honest.

[Jodster]

Ok, maybe I should have said "last great entry opportunity" or "rare purchasing low point". Even $50 silver looks good if you think it's going to $100. Point is, there's not enough physical to cover the shorts, ETF's, etc.
I heard Sprott's Silver ETF is months behind on delivery. Sure you could still get it by melting Grandma's cutlery. But lets face it, I can order vast quantities with a few mouse clicks. I'm not saying it'll be like Executive Order 6102 . . but common sense is indicating that we're near a tipping point and looking back from there will be like looking back at $250/Au a decade ago.

[Zed]

In the end price will fix everything... which is why we buy it now... no?

[DrStrangelove]

Some analysis courtesy of Alf Fields and JSmineset:


http://jsmineset.com/2011/01/18/a-note-from-alf-fields/

Concluding:

"I think that we can conclude that your $1650 forecast will come close to achievement during the up-move which should start this week."

Best wishes,
Alf Fields

[Resande]

Shipmates:

Early last week we saw two mysterious spikes down to 1355 on the INO website which turned out to be a harbinger of the low price on Friday of 1355. Within the past two hours another mysterious spike down to slightly under 1340 occured on the same database. If INO shows another down spike to 1340 tomorrow, it will be interesting to see if Friday's sustained low turns out to be 1340. This is purely emperical.....I have no explanation as to why the down spikes are occuring.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO

On a brighter note, Alf Fields posted a note on Jim's website which is quite optomistic. This is his first article that I know of since December 2009.

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Yo Ho

[Zed]

It is just bad data!

[anywoundedduck]

"I think that we can conclude that your $1650 forecast will come close to achievement during the up-move which should start this week."

Best wishes,
Alf Fields

Thanks Doc, I missed that article today.

When I asked my 8-ball if Alf Fields was right, it said. "Signs point to yes"

Then I followed up with a question, that when gold reaches $1650, will silver be at the $40 level?, and it said "You may rely on it"

Now you may laugh about my magic 8 ball, but its kind of eerie how often it is right. It is right more often than not, it seems to me. Better than a dart board or flipping a coin. My wife says I am shamefully superstitious. On the other hand, I have scared the **** out of myself with a Ouija Board, and I don't play around with those any more. They are just plain evil.

[StateofJefferson]

I just received a Credit Suisse report calling for gold at $2,000 in calendar year 2011.

[severeuke]

Looks ready to pop higher!

Alf agrees:

http://jsmineset.com/2011/01/18/a-note-from-alf-fields/

[kiwi_envoy]

Looks like the bad guys have managed to turn all of the algo black boxes to the sell side.

If the US dollar bounces here then we may be in for a good buying opportunity for all of those with dry powder.

[Zed]

I just received a Credit Suisse report calling for gold at $2,000 in calendar year 2011.

Technical estimations vary between 1800 and 2200 depending on what rule of thumb you use. We have done similar %'s from New Year levels in the past.

[StateofJefferson]

Here are the bullet points from the Credit Suisse report issued today:

Credit Suisse

RESEARCH & ANALYTICS

Research Notification

Global equity strategy - 11 surprises for 2011

11 surprises for 2011

We published our central forecasts for the new year in our two-part 2011 outlook. We project global growth of around 4.5%, are overweight equities (with a mid-year target of 1,350 on the S&P 500) and underweight bonds, expect peripheral Europe to muddle through and maintain our benchmark on cyclicals. In this report, we look at the risks to our central scenario. Among the surprises that could occur in 2011 we look at the following:



■

GDP growth in the US of 5% in 1H 2011E and a strengthening dollar;
■

US house prices rise in 2011E;
■

US bond yields rise to 5% in 2011E;
■

Chinese growth accelerates;
■

The S&P 500 reaches 1,600;
■

There is a default in peripheral Europe;
■

Gold rises to US$2,000/oz;
■

Autos are the best-performing sector for the second year in a row;
■

Defensives outperform in spite of a rise in equities;
■

Banks outperform by more than 10% in 2011E; and
■

Food prices continue to rise sharply.

[scofield]

HUI is very very close to the triangle apex. There is still a chance for 900 HUI by May/June or much higher by Dec.

[Silver001]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41198789

Fed cannot go broke - new accounting lets Fed losses go straight to Treasury

[Overthehill]

Looks like the bad guys have managed to turn all of the algo black boxes to the sell side.

If the US dollar bounces here then we may be in for a good buying opportunity for all of those with dry powder.

Fields must already be cringing with embarrassment.

The 2011 paradigm thus far is the US dollar down, gold and silver down more.

Not only must we contend with shysters supressing prices there's also those pesky computer algorithms.

[anywoundedduck]

Fields must already be cringing with embarrassment.

Take heart. If you review what Alf stated:
Conclusion: gold has either already finished the correction or requires one minor drop below yesterday’s fixings to finish it.

And with that, he points out that the charts have us in Wave 5, in the midst of Wave 5.iv, to be followed by Wave 5.v
Wave 5.iii 1157.0 to 1421.0 +264 +22.8%
Wave 5.iv 1421.0 to 1337.5 -83.5 - 5.9%
Wave 5.v 1337.5 to 1642.0 +305 +22.8% (forecast – assumes the same % gain as 5.iii)
If the tide turns in the next few days, then I would say that Alf is right in his assessment, and we could be on our way to a high in the mid 1600's.
http://jsmineset.com/2011/01/18/a-note-from-alf-fields/

[Zed]

BANG! BANG! ---> You're dead! Neener, neener, neener!!!!!

[StateofJefferson]

David Nichols has turned bearish.

Clive Maund has turned bullish.

What do I think? I think I will have another glass of good Napa Valley cabernet sauvignon.

[beastie]

Zed,
It's niner, oner, oner here.
I'm betting on Alf though the euro gold price falling below the 1K mark makes me nervous.
We will know in a day or three.

[Zed]

Zed,
It's niner, oner, oner here.
I'm betting on Alf though the euro gold price falling below the 1K mark makes me nervous.
We will know in a day or three.

Zero x 3 here... I fixed it... it is the accent you know.

[Resande]

Shipmates:

I realize that Zed thinks this is simply bad data, but here are the empericals: The week before last, mysterious down spikes to 1355 on the INO website accurately predicted the Friday sustained low of 1355. Last week dito at 1338 level. Today at 6pm EST the INO site has two closely spaced spikes down to 1300 and 1305. Based on the previous two weeks' data I believe that we will see a sustained low on Friday of this week between 1300 and 1305. May be a bit early to go long. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.ht...O&t=&a=&w=&v=i

Yo Ho