Silver

[Strawboss]

This is a shorter term view of silver (4 hour chart). From this perspective, silver may yet have some more upside before we get a larger correction. The daily chart has the stochastic still embedded, but, the overall technical picture is one of a market that is extended a bit on the upside.

In basic terms - silver has been very strong of late which could be seasonally related, JPM working on their short positions, decreased trading volume at the LBMA (paper silver), supply/demand crunch, etc...

I still think the intermediate target of $23ish is correct which would complete wave 1 of MAJOR THREE. The question is only if we push there now or do we have 1 or more corrections (minor) between here and there.

[StateofJefferson]

End of the week, quite a battle in the silver pits as well as gold. Markets are all closed and I checked my stocks. My silver stocks are up strongly today 2-5%. Is someone accumulating in anticipation of next week? We shall see.

[Strawboss]

I am pleasantly surprised by the strength in silver - and even more so by the silver stocks. Its a nice change from the usual pump and dump action...

[Strawboss]

I have uploaded a PDF report published by Goldman Sachs with some charting as they look ahead at the 4th quarter.

Some interesting stuff - especially some currency crosses and the yields on the 10 and 30 yr (they might continue to go down) - which should be supportive of gold prices.

http://www.bullion-master.com/GS-4qtr2010.pdf

[4dabopper]

<a href="http://s268.photobucket.com/albums/jj5/4dabopper/?action=view&current=SB_LINE_45DAY_CUSTOM_WIDGET.p ng" target="_blank"><img src="http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj5/4dabopper/SB_LINE_45DAY_CUSTOM_WIDGET.png" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>

Damn hard audience here.... what does a metal have to do,,,,,,....LOL


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hUy9ePyo6Q

[Jodster]

I'm too busy throwing darts at strawboss' picture. Where's the stinkin' pullback? I never thought I'd say this, but silver almost looks TOO strong! We're either gonna dip on profit taking or somebody better start posting rocket pictures.
Anybody seen Sammy ?!?

[JohnPA]

I'm waiting for a few days with a close over 20...but I'll give you a peep.

"PEEP"

[BoxofGold]

We're either gonna dip on profit taking...

For the last week or two, every drop has been reversed by buying. If someone's selling, there seem to be even more waiting to scoop it up.

[Strawboss]

I have had worse things thrown at me. I once had a girlfriend that got mad at me and threw steak knives at me.

There is no question we are oversold on the daily. The reality though is that buyers are keeping up with the sellers tit for tat. $20.50 will be a battle though. I would rather we correct and then attack it from a technical posture that is more friendly - but, I am not complaining...I am fully invested.

I'm too busy throwing darts at strawboss' picture. Where's the stinkin' pullback? I never thought I'd say this, but silver almost looks TOO strong! We're either gonna dip on profit taking or somebody better start posting rocket pictures.
Anybody seen Sammy ?!?

[Jodster]

hey Strawboss! You know whats worse than a girlfriend that throws steak knives? A girlfriend that throws steak knives with good aim!

But I digress. So looking at the big picture . . If Cramer is recommending SLV and other paper Ag, then word is getting out that PM's are a good play. Most sheeple will still chase paper though. Eventually a flood of investors will impact the price positively. It gets even more critical when people start chasing bullion.

If this is the case then this could be a bona fide run on Silver. The $64,000 question is . . will there be a pullback? I'd hate to jump on board now and find out that Elliott waves or Faganicci or some other italian propellerhead graph has spot pulling back to $16.80 or something.

On that note, if TPTB can fix the price of gold every morning in London, why don't they do that for silver? Are they boiling the frog? Are WE the frog?

[slowtrain]

After 10-15 years of accumulating silver into strong hands and depleting stockpiles we are now seeing a battle royale for a price reset that would be closer to silver's
true value. There does seem to be an over confidence at the moment because of so many positive fundamentals in this particular market. Remember that as we head towards silver's final destination most of the fun is in the journey. Best to all.

[Strawboss]

Jodster - I seriously doubt if we will ever see silver print a price that is below $18 - ever. That would be approx. a 10% risk if you buy now - with an upside potential of as high as $300. That is not a bad risk/reward ratio... Just buy physical and then go lose it in a boating accident.

[Strawboss]

Silver is definitely overbought on the daily chart - but, the stochastic is working on embedding itself - and thanks to Hawk - we all know what that means...

While a correction is needed (in my opinion), based on the buying strength I have been seeing - it may be more horizontal than anything else - what some would call a "battle royale". You are, in the near future, going to see why silver is the sport of kings...

[Jodster]

Rockets and boating accidents?! This place is fun!

[ewells]

Rockets and boating accidents?! This place is fun!

Who needs a boating accident when you have a time machine. Try finding a stash without getting eaten by a t-rex.

[Eat Beef]

Come on Boss! A rocket when we haven't even cleared resistance? You're just precipitating that pullback you called for...I'm going to start calling you a self fulfilling prophet!

[TnAndy]

Wake me when it hits 100, although I might open one eye when it starts gapping up 5 bucks/day.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Strawboss]

I was trying to fake out "the man" - reverse psychology (Goldies stuff). Besides, someone has to post rockets, right?

Seriously though, $20.50 is the granddaddy of the resistance and it is going to take some serious buying to push us through this level and keep us there. With the technicals being what they are - that is a tough task.

To the bulls credit, it would appear that there is some serious money that smells blood in the water (JPMs shorts - tight physical supply - COMEX situation) and they are taking on the shorts. That is why this morning I called this the "battle royale" in anticipation of this reality and mentioned that we might just see a horizontal correction - where price trades in a really tight band as the longs and shorts battle it out and the technicals fall from overbought levels.

I dont see a deep correction at this point - and I am still sticking with my target of $23 which I have been talking about for months.

Just my opinion - DYODD and all that stuff...

Come on Boss! A rocket when we haven't even cleared resistance? You're just precipitating that pullback you called for...I'm going to start calling you a self fulfilling prophet!

[Gcubed]

Gcubed - Welcome back! Long time no see... This forum isnt the same without your grumpiness roaming the halls...

Tankey Straw! Just saw dis, sorry fer da late reply.

Da Grump

[Strawboss]

This is the weekly chart, where we can clearly see the conclusion of MAJOR WAVE ONE as well as MAJOR TWO. We are in the process of completing wave 1 of MAJOR THREE which I believe will target $23ish as the eventual high of this move.

In contrast to the daily chart, the technicals are NOT oversold on this chart and have plenty of room to run on the upside. We could easily gain $2-3 on this setup - easily. With an overshoot, it could even go a few dollars higher than my target on a spike.

Compare the MACD from the last time we hit $20.50 to this time. Notice that we are not even close to being as extended as we were last time - that is bullish. We have a positive cross of the 9 period indicator which means that the price is trending higher (duh, right?).

This chart, if I may say so, is a thing of beauty that can be admired.

[Jodster]

If this is 5 of 1 of MAJOR 3, where does the pullback put us on 3 of 3 of the next phase? You're using Elliott Wave right strawboss? Thx!

[Strawboss]

Silver is still fighting tough resistance at $20.50. I would expect this to continue for a bit.

Here is the link to this weeks The Silver Mining Report

http://bullion-master.com/the-silver...rt-9.15.10.pdf

[Strawboss]

I dont have an exact estimate yet for what the expected low for wave 2 of MAJOR THREE will be. Once we have an established top in for this move, it will become clearer. If I had to guess (and it would just be a guess at this point) I would think around $19ish, perhaps a bit lower...

If this is 5 of 1 of MAJOR 3, where does the pullback put us on 3 of 3 of the next phase? You're using Elliott Wave right strawboss? Thx!

[AgAuGal]

Once the high is broken will we see a dump or will strong hands take hold and continue the trend....

[Strawboss]

Agaugal,

Once we break through the old high, I would expect a sharp rise to $23-24ish and then a pullback to @$19ish. Then the real move will begin...

[Zed]

Looking interesting. Possilby 21.34 and a pull back to test twenty. That would be healthier in the longer run. Gold looking stretched in the short term. I don't think we are out of the woods yet. Maybe a month or so? Looking for $19.25 to hold on any reaction... weekly closing basis. Below that I start to fret again...

2c

[Strawboss]

I found a great site for following sentiment on a particular stock:

http://stocktwits.com/

You just type in the symbol and you can see what people are thinking/doing in real time. Pretty cool..

[Gcubed]

The dog nipped at its 2008 tail this week. Will that hound once again chase the rabbit soon? I hope so.

[jbilprophet123]

Agaugal,

Once we break through the old high, I would expect a sharp rise to $23-24ish and then a pullback to @$19ish. Then the real move will begin...

Same thinking here, however the action in 20s is too strong no stochs affecting accumulation. No jerk and spikes steady accumulation.
So imvho from 23-24ish pullback will probably be 21.4ish or in 20s if low 20s for a small time before reaching out 21.4 again..

[4dabopper]

silver settles at its best in three decades.

[Zed]

5 March 2008 $20.78 highest daily close in 30 years.

10 March 2008 $20.6520 previous highest weekly close. So yeah on a weekly closing basis by 3.5c or so...

The ultimate 30 year high water mark still lay ahead @ $21.34.

FWIW its looking exhausted on a daily basis but not so bad on a weekly basis. Add that to the fact that is was not what you call a convincing break and I think the odds favour a short term pull back. First support lies around the 19.70 -19.90 area... if sentiment is strong the round number effect might kick in at 20. Stronger support is around the 19.25 area should initial support give way (not unlikely!). A dip to buy IMO FWIW.

All in all it looks like it is going to be an excellent Xmas.

[Zed]

so its breakout or pause time. FWIW a pause is healthier in the wider time frame, if we can burn off some weak hands without conceding too much in price we will be on a better foundation moving forward.

[Zed]

Link --> Silver looks ready to rip

[lowcommotion]

Link --> Silver looks ready to rip

Interesting that a bank is buying silver. This is good news IMO as up
to now many said only gold is money as banks were only buying gold
and not silver. BTW in the article he states that the silver to gold
ratio only went down to 37:1 but 50 into 850 is roughly 17:1 no?

[GoldFinch]

[$pike]

Boss ,
What do you think about this down spike?
Sold mine yesterday.

DHAWK's chart from Sept 8th Wednesday was a Fake Print for the insiders

today was the real deal to .01 for USSIF



http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USSIF

There are more FP's from all over

go checkout that reddragonleo site'
he has a few FP's there.

One recently for AU @ 3401.50
another AG FP @ 84.30
JPM -31.00
GS sub $20.00
just to name a few..

Interesting indeed!!!

[Zed]

Interesting that a bank is buying silver. This is good news IMO as up
to now many said only gold is money as banks were only buying gold
and not silver. BTW in the article he states that the silver to gold
ratio only went down to 37:1 but 50 into 850 is roughly 17:1 no?

Jurnos don't do maths! Hell they barely do research

[Zed]

$56,000 an oz on erroneous and fatally flawed assumptions.... give me a break! You just can't do the maths they are doing, it means NOTHING. It bares no relationship to ANY reality, they are drawing relationships that DON'T exist! Douglas should try selling pre loved autos, if anything this stuff damages GATA!

[silverwood]

Well guys it is looking like the silver manipulators are feeling some pain, why? because here is some more propaganda from media news for joe public to play the paper silver ETFs instead of buying physical. Again this is on Canadian media where there are many metals mined people. To veiw video go to www.bnn.ca Silver ETFs Shine [09-20-10 3:45 PM].

[Zed]

Can you imagine a situation where silver is looking bullish and SLV is not being pumped? I can't...

+ buying SLV actually makes life harder for the short side of the contract. They must acquire the metal and they can use futures to manage price exposure. In a bull run both these activities put pressure on the shorts.

Unless of course you believe that they have not got any metal and that the published bar numbers are made up, cause its not like anyone would check that right?

To me it just means silver is looking good for now...

2c

[GoldWampum]

This is a 2000th post. Let's make this one an "I probably was wrong" post. I have been saying for months that silver would not see a new high (2008 basis) until it dipped below 17. last time it came close to that it only got to maybe 17.02 or so. And it looks like it may make a new high without going that low again.

It may backup a "little" first, but I don't see it crashing that low again, at least in the near future. Oh well.

[silverwood]

ZED... Yeah but, can't they borrow SLV's metal? They certainly CAN'T borrow joe public's bars and coins! Sure the ETFs have metal but how is it allocated?

[newmisty]

Way to kick off the 2000's GW.

I agree with your assessment too. I think we will be climbing rather steadily for a while with minimal beat-downs.

[Strawboss]

Not to rain on anyones parade, but....

Silver makes its biggest gains at the end of a move.
Silver gets the attention at the end of a move.
Silver attracts the interest of mainstream investors at the end of a move.

We are approaching the end of this move in silver. My target is $23. If you are new to PMs, I would strongly urge you to wait for the next good correction to enter a position. I would NOT suggest buying stock in any miners at this juncture (with very few exceptions).

If you are intent on buying now - I would urge you to buy physical silver and to do it in a time phased manner - i.e. at regular intervals of time so you can dollar cost average your purchases (some purchases will be higher, some will be lower).

The ideal time to buy silver is when there is general agreement that silver is a dog that is going back to $8 an ounce (or less).

[Zed]

ZED... Yeah but, can't they borrow SLV's metal? They certainly CAN'T borrow joe public's bars and coins! Sure the ETFs have metal but how is it allocated?

Not as far as I am aware BUT because it is a stock it can be short sold, anyone using a margin account to buy SLV can have their SLV lent out to a seller. That is legit, naked short selling is also a possibility, that is just plain bent but its a flaw in the US system and does go on. Anyway as far as metal verses stock issued it should all be there unless someone is defrauding the system. SLV makes a good trading vehicle, you can do stuff that you just cannot do with physical including hedge your real metal if you hold quantity... and quite cheaply too via options. Hell $25 Jan Calls are at 36c .... might be a good little flutter, if we break 21 we could get there in a real hurry. If you had a boat load of physical and we get a blow off top you could capture the top by buying SLV puts, you'd not have to sell your metal but have a similar outcome to having sold the top and bought back in lower. Don't hate the SLV, it can be useful... you can play mini hedge funds for play money!

2c

[Zed]

The ideal time to buy silver is when there is general agreement that silver is a dog that is going back to $8 an ounce (or less).

The ideal time to buy Silver is when she has jumped off a tall building in a single bound.... and the thought of it scares you absolutely witless LOL she likes big cahunas & being caught in a suicide dive not a gal for the faint of heart eh?

[Strawboss]

Here is a look at silver on the monthly chart. We are approaching overbought levels, but, nothing like the extremes we have seen in the past. I am still on the bandwagon of us reaching $23ish on this move, and then a wave 2 of MAJOR THREE correction down to @$19.50ish. Once that happens, we will be in wave 3 of MAJOR THREE which is the granddaddy of all. That wave could see us take out the previous highs above $50 set back in 1981.

[Strawboss]

Here is the link to this weeks report on the silver miners. The silver miners as a group are on fire.

http://www.bullion-master.com/the-si...rt-9.22.10.pdf

[Strawboss]

.95 to go for silver to reach my target of $23ish...

[jbilprophet123]

.95 to go for silver to reach my target of $23ish...

There still is no rhino, every $ move in gold is being digested well. Till the point this continues i am going to adopt no Rhino no trade policy.
23ish or not.. Ofcourse depends on everyone's trading style and goal.
No matter what i aint going to loose parabolic move continuing on upside for the sake of safetly after suffering of all this time.
Rhino will happen if a significant top is to happen imvho..

And even if 23 to 20 happens on the way to 50 as you are saying what diff does it make.. wont it be too costly to sell to capture say 10% better price and risk missing 100%+ move?