Silver

[Strawboss]

Here is the link to this weeks report on the silver mining stocks I follow.

http://bullion-master.com/the-silver...t-10-20.10.pdf

[Strawboss]

One of the cool things to me about this thread (in addition to the great people that contribute) is how you can sense the ebb and flow of the market by it. Did you notice the last 2 weeks the increase in traffic/postings? And now - its back to its normal self - sitting in golds shadow.

As mentioned, silver always takes the lead at the end of moves as the frenzied rush of those late to the party show up. Technical indicators are useful, but, so is being able to feel the market.

If you are one of those that are relatively new and perhaps bought at something other than an optimal time (like in the last couple of weeks) - dont worry - you will be fine. It just might hurt for a bit while we get a much needed correction. Needed because it is this correction that will pave the way for a HUGE move upwards that is coming. This correction, in my opinion, wont be nearly as bad as it was a couple of years ago. This one will be mild in comparison - down to perhaps $20-21 or so. I would expect that we will bounce around quite a bit between here and there but there is MASSIVE support near that level and there are big, big buyers that are waiting to jump in and silver is a small market with fantastic fundamentals in its favor.

But, we may have a bit of turbulence in the near future.

Whatever you do - dont sell any physical.

Strap on your seatbelt folks because the volatility is going to be like nothing we have ever seen before.

[Gcubed]

Straw I'm curious. Is silver not still in the trading range that you predicted a pull back from? Has there even been a correction according to your forecast? What are we actually in store for?

'cubed

[Strawboss]

Cubed - I think that a correction is very, very likely. If we havent seen the top in silver for this move - I think it is very close to here.

As for where we are headed - in my opinion - I think we will see $19.50ish which I think will come in the form of a candlestick with a long tail (intraday low). Once that happens, I think silver is going to start acting like a raging bull with moves of several dollars a day in a generally up direction.

Straw I'm curious. Is silver not still in the trading range that you predicted a pull back from? Has there even been a correction according to your forecast? What are we actually in store for?

'cubed

[Gcubed]

OK, so we haven't seen a correction yet. I'm just looking for guidance in order that I may manage my "retail detail". Got lots to learn

[Zed]

OMG ~! Correct already!... never again am i going to go short on these overbought indicators.... its so true.. dont try to time it unless u know your stuff down cold. so far its just my physical tat has truely gained in value cuz i cant even liquidate it by pressing a mouse button! But either way go silver!...

Wats your projected support level Strawboss? it just breezed thru 20...

Shorting at this time of year, off the action we saw across sumer, with the prospects we have for QEII and India's buying season is... just... plain... mad IMO. Short in May maybe... if you must.

[Zed]

OK, so we haven't seen a correction yet. I'm just looking for guidance in order that I may manage my "retail detail". Got lots to learn

I'd stock them chocolate centered coins, I love'm, nice and shinny and sweet as well.... {ducks} Neener neener YA MISSED!

Seriously... we have to break trend first, until then no point in discussing a correction. When that happens we start plotting... at least that is my approach, one step at a time.

[Zed]

It's not always about the buck........

Less and less so.

[klichko]

Dear Strawboss,

This is my first post in this thread. I do not have much to say other than thank you. I have been keeping an eye on this thread for a few weeks and I appreciate your opinion. I am looking to add more silver (and gold) to my stash and I am following your advise. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR SHARING YOUR INSIGHT!!!

[GoldWampum]

I said we'd see twenty again and still believe that. this retraction is so textbook. It's like they set the computers for high and low everyday and let it float. double tops, double bottoms, 50% retraces. It's really quite poetic and fun to observe.

[silverwood]

Silver and gold are correcting mainly because of over optimism because of QEII. Well Bennie is a smart player and he knows that he wants to QEII into a soft markets which he has skillfully created. So all you dip buyers here is our opportunity to scale in your purchases. There is no telling where the hedgies will take the gold/silver price down to. If your a technical guy look at the fibonacci retracements for clues. But I like to cost average into lows.

[Zed]

but that is just it... this is noise so far... no correction to speak of yet.

[GoldWampum]

Look for the Dubya.

[Zed]

Look for the Dubya.

V ...............?

[jbilprophet123]

Here is a chart for silver that reflects my thinking on where we are headed. As I mentioned before, I think we are going to see $19.50ish on the downside. I intend to begin buying at $22 and adding with every .50 drop in price from there. I can envision a drop from $21 down to $19.50 in a matter of hours with the price rebounding back to $21 - creating one hell of a tail. That is how volatile I envision silver in the not too distant future.

Of particular importance to me is that the RSI is currently below 40 which is a good indicator of a trend change. This is the first time it has been below 40 since the move at $17.50 began. Ignore that signal at your own risk...

Thanks SB. I got out last Friday and am looking to reenter. My target of reentry in silver is gold price in the range of 1280-1300 or action as i see fit in that range in ST. 50% will be that range. Rest 50% probably for a lower range or better comfort feeling. For silver Imvho if that chart as guide. Atleast 50% if not 100% i will get into at 22 range.
I think that 1950 correction atleast has 50% chance or more of not happening.

I will get in at higher prices if gold/silver spend a few more days in the same range..

Let us see where i get in. < 22 or > 23 price. Anyway till the point i am convinced that risk/reward is in favor of gain i wont get in.
Let the rocket zoom by and me looking at it, if that is what happens.
The physical that i have is insurance and price of gold at 1100 or 1300 makes no diff, it just is not part of my tradable portfolio.

[GoldWampum]

V ...............?

That's what we see forming right now yes, a V. I expect a second one to follow, making it a W. If that happens we'll see the dip to 20 on the second V\ Then the V\/

Then maybe 30FRN. This is my uninformed and totally bereft of understanding guess.

[GoldWampum]

wish I could post pics.

[Zed]

Get a photobucket account and upload them there, then link them. Photobucket makes up the BB code for you.

www.photobucket.com

[GoldWampum]

ahh, good ideer.

[Zed]

Hey!

Heap big gold wampum! Where are my charts? gimme gimme gimme!

[jupitergold]

I don't know about you guys, I have silver breaking the uptrend line and using the low rail as kick off resistance. My silver charting has silver closing on the 23.6% Fibo retrace and low $22 is the 38% Fibo. As of now, short term trend is down with a break at $23.60; however, I agree with Zed and wouldn't try shorting.

If anyone is interested, I can post some charts.

[Zed]

If anyone is interested, I can post some charts.

I can't speak for SB but they are welcome in the old tub!

[jbilprophet123]

I don't know about you guys, I have silver breaking the uptrend line and using the low rail as kick off resistance. My silver charting has silver closing on the 23.6% Fibo retrace and low $22 is the 38% Fibo. As of now, short term trend is down with a break at $23.60; however, I agree with Zed and wouldn't try shorting.

If anyone is interested, I can post some charts.

Please post your charts, jup.

[Concours14]

So I come back from my cousin's for the game (N.E. cleared, S.D.-barely) and Gold is showing UP $9.5 and the Silver is running .32 up on the ask. They quoting Asia? Some factions in Europe?

T'anx!

[livtocruz]

European markets are open.

[Zed]

Do you remember when silver went 50c in a day for the first time in this bull? 321gold became 321silver for the day! Man it was a buzz.... now its ho hum... Just rememberin.

[321AU]

Lifted from another forum.

100orbust
Member Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 762

The 25 dollar handle

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Before I reference the $25 marker, lets take a quick look at daily silver price action. Two charts to reference, the 1st chart on the left details the price action from the thread (Silver Getaway), clearly we can see a parallel trading range moving northeast. The momentum of silver was strong enough to push through the resistance area to challenge 25 as expected. This is not a surprise to see the bears take every measure to sell into any attempt by Ag to push closer to 25, there is absolutely no doubt silver will retest 25 and bust through it...the bulls have not taken the market this far to be turned around. Given the 40% gains in Silver over the past 3 months, profit taking and paper selling was a given near this major milestone.

The chart on the right is today's current action, the correction shows a lot of back-filling, and already silver is moving into neutral territory (RSI). We can also see that Silver (though 2 bucks off the highs from last week), has tested the supporting trendline of the parallel channel and this trendline is still intact. Nothing has been breached or damaged from a technical perspective, this is all normal, and in fact given the huge gains and overbought status, what is surprising (at least to some), is that we are not down more.

The fact is Silver is NOW in a SECULAR BULL Market, my comments still stand, everything between Feb 1980 and Sept 2010 was a 30 year consolidation period for silver to mark time until we hit this juncture, the technicals and fudnamentals are aligned and moving together. As to the correction, it may already be over, if not, it will be soon. Why? Since both Gold AND silver are in bull legs, the market does NOT have TIME to jerk around, it NEEDS to GO HIGHER and FAST. I do believe GOLD has entered a parabolic phase, (silver will see terrific gains but I do not view silver's forthcoming advance to be parabolic), the price action between AG and AU are quite different, not to say the 30 yr pattern won't produce fireworks, it will.

The $25 handle represents the last big refuge for the shorts, taking out 25 will signal the bears / shorts have completely lost their control on the markets and instead of adding to their shorts they will need to look at how to exit their positions without generating a short-squeeze, there is a good chance this will come and could develop at any time. From a technical perspective, we could see Silver challenge the 25 area several times, usually 4 times with the 4th being the magic number which blows out 25. To some this could look like a triple or double top, it is not. True double tops take weeks to set up and a major correction between the two highs.

Silver needs to close back above $24.50, this is a comfort zone for Ag to easily zero again at $25, it is a game of chicken now and the bears are already licking their wounds and with the weather getting a little chilly, the nearest cave for hibernation will be looking fairly attractive. When 25 is taken out, we may see a very quick acceleration to $40, this is the peak of wave 1 from 1980 and is the last piece of resistance before Silver makes a run to $100. The higher silver moves up from here, the bigger the price gains, the increase in volatility.

Wrapping up, I mentioned a couple years ago that when Silver hit 25, we would start seeing the signs of retail shortage, I believe this is now taking place with certain shops, premiums are rising and certain select silver is showing out of stock. Retail can dry up very quickly, next month when the Fed announces the amount of QE, which should err on the high side, this is all the excuse the PM markets will need to take off...Buying physical will prove to become more difficult, be prepared to join the queue or waiting list if the dealers will even take pre-orders.
Attached Thumbnails

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

100 or Bust
What if we close just below channel or 20 day avg .Do you think hedge fund future selling( not manipulation) and a potential stock market correction down to 9000 delay your scenario. I agree with the physical shortage part
and premiums. When you thought that silver would not go below 15
the last time ,the market(Including a bit of manipulation to keep it going)
waylaid your technicals. We all realize anything can happen. Just your thought on this aspect would be appreciated

You'll need to refresh me when I stated it would not go below 15? This past spring I mentioned we could go as low as 13, the market bottomed @ 14.63.
This correction could take many different shapes, a more prolonged A-B-C (Flat), a Zig-Zag correction, or just a simple abc down (which may have been completed), I am opting for the latter (unless we have another very shift but short move to the downside), the market is running against time right now, this is not about technicals but about price vs time and where we are in price and how much time. Silver ang Gold have an agenda and it is not to sit around here bouncing around. There are only TWO reasons for this sell off, to shake out the weak longs, and to alleviate negative divergence. These sharp corrections are exactly what to expect before we see a sudden market reversal, do not underestimate the steepness of the corrections nor the speed at which the market can and will reverse back to the upside.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Earlier this year the PM market already provided which direction it would take if Equities tanked (and I agree with the indices rolling over after election), but if you recall when we had that 1K pt drop in the DOW, Gold was up about 30 bucks.

The dollar environment is a little more suspect right now, dollars are not in favor and we have an established downtrend, bonds are paying close to 0% interest, real estate has not yet bottomed, pension funds, 401k's may be at risk, money flowing out of these assets need to find a home and sitting in a market market getting 2% interest waiting for the Gov't to devalue the dollar by 30% is not where the smart money will go. What assets are liquid, have proven track record and provide a safety net against inflation, currency debasement, where are you going to go?

The '08 crash was ugly but necessary, the market had to come down to hit a key turning point in the 30 yr pattern, the speed at which it accelerated was also to take out paper longs, to discourage those from getting back into the market < 9, the washout played out and here we are nearly 200% higher, we'll still have mini washouts, but the direction is north, stay on course.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Zed]

Retail shortage? I don't think we are there yet, I think that demand is down right at this very point... ask G.

[Strawboss]

Statement at the CFTC Public Meeting on Anti-Manipulation and Disruptive Trading Practices

Commissioner Bart Chilton
October 26, 2010

I take this opportunity to comment on the precious metals markets and in particular the silver markets. More than two years ago, the agency began an investigation into silver markets. I have been urging the agency to say something on the matter for months. The public deserves some answers to their concerns that silver markets are being, and have been, manipulated.

The legal definition of manipulation under the law is a high bar to prove. It is a much different test than what the average person might consider as manipulation. Under existing law, to prove manipulation, the government is required to demonstrate not only specific intent, we also need to prove that as a result of the intent and market control, that activity caused an artificial price—a point which can certainly be debated by economists. Attempted manipulation is less difficult to prove—requiring an intent to manipulate and some overt act in furtherance of that intent. There are also other violations of law that could contort markets and distort prices.

I believe that there have been repeated attempts to influence prices in the silver markets. There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control that price. Based on what I have been told by members of the public, and reviewed in publicly available documents, I believe violations to the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) have taken place in silver markets and that any such violation of the law in this regard should be prosecuted.

In saying this, I am fully aware of the prohibition from divulging trader names or information about their positions. I am extremely careful not to violate the law in this, or any, regard. I also cannot pre-judge anything the agency may do with regard to our silver investigation, or any other matter.

The Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which I strongly supported, contains new manipulation provisions as well as antidisruptive trading rules. These new authorities, along with the implementation of thoughtful position limits in metals will go a long way toward ensuring more efficient and effective metals markets devoid of fraud, abuse, and manipulation.

Thoughtful investigations take time. The CFTC staff has worked extremely hard on the silver investigation. That said, there is a point at which it is our responsibility to say something. Within the law, I have done so. I am hopeful that the agency will speak publicly about the investigation in the very near future and when they do so that it will be in a more granular fashion than I am permitted from doing at this time.

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/Speech...ent102610.html

[StateofJefferson]

How long will it take to relieve Bart Chilton from his job?

[StateofJefferson]

Look at silver, opening up +.30 in the Access Market.

[Zed]

Statement at the CFTC Public Meeting on Anti-Manipulation and Disruptive Trading Practices

Commissioner Bart Chilton
October 26, 2010

I take this opportunity to comment on the precious metals markets and in particular the silver markets. More than two years ago, the agency began an investigation into silver markets. I have been urging the agency to say something on the matter for months. The public deserves some answers to their concerns that silver markets are being, and have been, manipulated.

The legal definition of manipulation under the law is a high bar to prove. It is a much different test than what the average person might consider as manipulation. Under existing law, to prove manipulation, the government is required to demonstrate not only specific intent, we also need to prove that as a result of the intent and market control, that activity caused an artificial price—a point which can certainly be debated by economists. Attempted manipulation is less difficult to prove—requiring an intent to manipulate and some overt act in furtherance of that intent. There are also other violations of law that could contort markets and distort prices.

I believe that there have been repeated attempts to influence prices in the silver markets. There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control that price. Based on what I have been told by members of the public, and reviewed in publicly available documents, I believe violations to the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) have taken place in silver markets and that any such violation of the law in this regard should be prosecuted.

In saying this, I am fully aware of the prohibition from divulging trader names or information about their positions. I am extremely careful not to violate the law in this, or any, regard. I also cannot pre-judge anything the agency may do with regard to our silver investigation, or any other matter.

The Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which I strongly supported, contains new manipulation provisions as well as antidisruptive trading rules. These new authorities, along with the implementation of thoughtful position limits in metals will go a long way toward ensuring more efficient and effective metals markets devoid of fraud, abuse, and manipulation.

Thoughtful investigations take time. The CFTC staff has worked extremely hard on the silver investigation. That said, there is a point at which it is our responsibility to say something. Within the law, I have done so. I am hopeful that the agency will speak publicly about the investigation in the very near future and when they do so that it will be in a more granular fashion than I am permitted from doing at this time.

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/Speech...ent102610.html

Mr Butler be grinning...!

[Strawboss]

It speaks volumes that a commissioner of the CFTC is saying this. I was a bit surprised to see this story made the WSJ today. Things in silver are definitely changing and I may need to revisit some of my basic assumptions...thinking...

[jupitergold]

This is what I don't understand about the silver manipulation exercise,

What do the "acusers" believe is the true ratio of Silver/Gold? Right now, we have almost 55/1 and continues to drop. If it was so manipulated, where is it? All I see, except for the mid '90s, are 10 year cycles of ratio trading with panic thrusts every 3-5 years.

[Strawboss]

I dont know what the true ratio would be. How about we establish position limits - AND ENFORCE THEM - and lets find out what that ratio would be.

This is what I don't understand about the silver manipulation exercise,

What do the "acusers" believe is the true ratio of Silver/Gold? Right now, we have almost 55/1 and continues to drop. If it was so manipulated, where is it? All I see, except for the mid '90s, are 10 year cycles of ratio trading with panic thrusts every 3-5 years.

[Zed]

This is what I don't understand about the silver manipulation exercise,

What do the "acusers" believe is the true ratio of Silver/Gold? Right now, we have almost 55/1 and continues to drop. If it was so manipulated, where is it? All I see, except for the mid '90s, are 10 year cycles of ratio trading with panic thrusts every 3-5 years.

Manipulation depends on your time frame... it is done short term for fun and profit, long term it all comes out in the wash.

[Gcubed]

I dont know what the true ratio would be. How about we establish position limits - AND ENFORCE THEM - and lets find out what that ratio would be.

Position limits, that's how the silver price was manipulated DOWN in 1980. I watched it. The only thing they'll accomplish is moving the hedging market overseas. Asia must be chomping at the bit! Foolish Americans.

[Eat Beef]

Agreed.

It's amazing how fast folks abandon free market principles when they PERCIEVE that the change will be in their favor.

[Strawboss]

Silver is acting very antsy....expect massive volatility...

[Strawboss]

Here is the link to this weeks silver miners report.

http://www.bullion-master.com/the-si...t-10-27.10.pdf

[StateofJefferson]

Todays issue of the Wall Street Journal 11?28/2010 has a large marketing insert from Investment Rarities Incorporated pushing silver as an investment. This is a high class, expensive insert.

[StateofJefferson]

Surprised to see an insert in todays Wall Street Journal 10/28/2010 which was an expensive advertisement for Investment Rarities Incorporated promoting silver as an investment. This was a really nice expensive promotion

[GOLD DUCK]

QWAK,Look for $30.00 SILVER in 18 days!

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...n_18_Days.html

This is from GATA
-----------------------------------
A copy of the silver market manipulation lawsuit filed yesterday in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York against J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Bank has been posted at GATA's Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/SilverMani...10-27-2010.pdf

GATA board member Adrian Douglas, who helped publicize London silver trader Andrew Maguire's disregarded silver market manipulation complaint to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said of the lawsuit:

"The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has worked tirelessly for more than 10 years to expose the suppression of gold and silver prices. The filing of this lawsuit is a milestone in stopping the fraud that has been occurring in these markets and punishing the bullion banks responsible. The suppression of the monetary metals has facilitated an overvalued dollar and mispriced debt that in turn have caused the massive imbalances at the root of the worldwide financial crisis. This fraud has hurt everyone except those on the inside who have profited at the expense of the public. I applaud the integrity of Andrew Maguire, whose whistleblower testimony has made this lawsuit possible, and the dedication of CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton, who has had the courage to fight systemic corruption."

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

$30.00 is just OPENERS we will see $50.00 but exactly when is harder to predict but much SOONER that most people imagin!

the DUCK

[StateofJefferson]

From Stewart Thomson in Graceland Updates today:

39. Look out junior silver stocks, if price blows upside thru $25. You might not be able to handle.... all the profits!

[Anakin]

First Turk, now Warren Bevan:



Holy smokes!!! How about Silver this week! There is much to get into which I will in the fundamental section below, so let’s start with this stunning chart.

Silver got up and went higher 6.23% for the week, half of which came on Friday alone. The revelations (talked about below) have been a long time coming and have woken the silver dragon which looks headed much higher, quickly.

As with Gold, Silver broke it’s flag pattern which is much more defined here in Silver. This chart is powerful and measuring the move takes us to about the $30 level in about a month.

However on the way to $30 the level slightly above $25 dating back to the very early 80’s should act as slight resistance. After that it’s all but clear sailing all the way to $50.

I’m not saying this will happen in a couple months, but it could as the now now more accepted public fundamental are in the open. I’ve said before that Silver has a lot of catching up to do when compared to Gold. If it were to have broken it’s all-time high to the same magnitude as Gold has done, it should be above $80.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1288504800.php



I'm trying to guard against becoming emotional, but it's difficult not to feel confident about the raging silver bull.

[Zed]

So where is the $25 party?

[Concours14]

Ha-Ha! It's in my Scotch! I'm happy! Man, I was asking last week if maybe we might possibly start to see a firming up at $23.50 Silver (it seemed to be slipping in and out of that for a while) and maybe-possibly-might be seeing a bit of a floor under Gold around $1350.00. Gold isn't quite as dramatic but is comfy.

Obviously, a whisper of a dump, a bailout of shorts, or just plain mass profit-taking can drive it down, but this one feels a little different from the old days given there's less PM to go around..

We'll see. I'm convinced, sooner or later after the little fits, starts and pauses that refresh, the trend is upward. There just isn't enough Silver above ground for them to manipulate it for long. And the Gold isn't something quite as pliable to begin with, given the opportunity to float against fiat. And if they do drop? I'll load my position some more. And wait. It's good clean fun for the whole family, Zed!

[grooveboi]

So where is the $25 party?

I do miss the "cakes" that appeared at every new dollar on GIM1 - was that Mone's gig?
Groove

[Zed]

Mone is still around... just not sayin much these days... been a while since he posted (August!?) anyway he is "Hugo Freaking Chavez"... mebe he is whipping up cakes at KIII... I dunno mebe I will go look for old time sake.

Good luck cakeman wherever ye be!

[jupitergold]

It was only two years ago when our silver was just a young price tween trying to get up and walk out of the gold/silver ratio smashing. Today, she's all grown up in her mid 20's leading the ratio charge. Sigh, they grow up so fast in today's times but I must say good bye to swingin' sister. Rules are rules in my investment house and you're just getting out of control, so I turn my back to you. One day after all the cheap sleazy men realize you're not gold and throw you down the elevator shaft for being just a cheap whore metal, I will be there at the bottom picking up all the pieces.