Silver

[Zed]

Looking at the charts I have come up with the first week of Feb being a likely low, second week at the latest. I think that 1300/25 will be about right FWIW, I don't think 1250... but hey?!.... as crazy as it sounds it fits the charts.

Now wouldn't that be fun! A real live squeeze?!

[Dizzy47]

I\ll be all happy loading up at $25

Seems more and more traders are being introduced to some easy money squeezing the shorts, we'll see whether CFTC will be able on time to stop the hedge funds from squeezing the shorts by their famous position limits, this time only on the long side, looooooooool

remember oil at $140 and all the USSA congressmen jumping up and down about long speculators driving the price up?? would not be a bit suprised if the same happened here with silver....JPMorgan running to uncle sam for help

[Zed]

remember oil at $140 and all the USSA congressmen jumping up and down about long speculators driving the price up?? would not be a bit suprised if the same happened here with silver....JPMorgan running to uncle sam for help

Thing is in oil it was a very big, very trapped short fund buying back that did most of the damage... it blew up over the whole deal! Maybe it will be the same in silver...LOL!

[Voodoo]

I've read and reread Martin Armstrong's latest and it seems that he thinks we should be in for a trend change or at least a pause in gold prices. He points to an 11 yr high in 2010. He points to a weekly close below 1372 (which we just had Friday) would retest 1348. He is quite a bit more bearish if we get a monthly close below 1372 (which I think we will test this month) which would indicate a retest of 1235. Major support at $1150 and the bottom of the primary channel at about 1108. Longer term he is very bullish, as are the rest of us, with 2011 forming a major low (As long as we get a yearly close above $1032) with an explosive rally coming into an intraday peak in January 2016. My current thoughts are that we see a pretty good decline to early Febuary, get a rally that fails in March and then head down into the low in June 2011.

[KGMe]

I've read and reread Martin Armstrong's latest and it seems that he thinks we should be in for a trend change or at least a pause in gold prices. He points to an 11 yr high in 2010. He points to a weekly close below 1372 (which we just had Friday) would retest 1348. He is quite a bit more bearish if we get a monthly close below 1372 (which I think we will test this month) which would indicate a retest of 1235. Major support at $1150 and the bottom of the primary channel at about 1108. Longer term he is very bullish, as are the rest of us, with 2011 forming a major low (As long as we get a yearly close above $1032) with an explosive rally coming into an intraday peak in January 2016. My current thoughts are that we see a pretty good decline to early Febuary, get a rally that fails in March and then head down into the low in June 2011.

Sounds good to me!

[Gcubed]

I've read and reread Martin Armstrong's latest and it seems that he thinks we should be in for a trend change or at least a pause in gold prices. He points to an 11 yr high in 2010. He points to a weekly close below 1372 (which we just had Friday) would retest 1348. He is quite a bit more bearish if we get a monthly close below 1372 (which I think we will test this month) which would indicate a retest of 1235. Major support at $1150 and the bottom of the primary channel at about 1108. Longer term he is very bullish, as are the rest of us, with 2011 forming a major low (As long as we get a yearly close above $1032) with an explosive rally coming into an intraday peak in January 2016. My current thoughts are that we see a pretty good decline to early Febuary, get a rally that fails in March and then head down into the low in June 2011.

Trading that would be a dream! Gimme volatility baby!!

[Zed]

I've read and reread Martin Armstrong's latest and it seems that he thinks we should be in for a trend change or at least a pause in gold prices. He points to an 11 yr high in 2010. He points to a weekly close below 1372 (which we just had Friday) would retest 1348. He is quite a bit more bearish if we get a monthly close below 1372 (which I think we will test this month) which would indicate a retest of 1235. Major support at $1150 and the bottom of the primary channel at about 1108. Longer term he is very bullish, as are the rest of us, with 2011 forming a major low (As long as we get a yearly close above $1032) with an explosive rally coming into an intraday peak in January 2016. My current thoughts are that we see a pretty good decline to early Febuary, get a rally that fails in March and then head down into the low in June 2011.

The only issue I have with Armstong is that he ran a very complex model. By his own admission it tracked 30,000 inputs and correlated each one to the whole database in order to model these markets. He is in jail, he has no access to this sort of resource, he has no way of reproducing the type of forecast he is supposed to be famous for, he has necessarily been reduced to the very methods he criticizes in this letter, he can only study a limited number of markets by manual analysis!

In 2010 he forecast an April gold low and an Oct high OR vice versa (strange call IMO!). Neither was correct, it was a Feb low and a December high, a significant miss on both counts.

2c FWIW

[scofield]

You know, I love fractals. The fractal I see right now is a much bigger version of the rally out of Aug 2009. You can see 2 rounded tops before the final blow-off top to 1226.
Right now, we are drawing out the 2nd rounded top, in much larger magnitude, before the final rally, although, the first rounded top of May to Aug 2010 is actually a corrective move.

So, I think we are actually in this wave count:

[Nomis Elpmis]

Is this falling wedge pattern valid? If so, doesn't it suggest that silver will reverse in a few days?

http://goldismoney2.com/attachment.p...1&d=1295334317

[Zed]

Falling wedge is a bullish down trend reversal pattern so it is out of context being in a strong uptrend. Falling wedges typically end an extended period of down trend.

However 28 is strong support so we might just bounce here! I am looking for a larger correction due to a number of factors but it may not materialize, anywhoooo, if we do rally from here it still don't really qualify!

[anywoundedduck]

Did you ever notice how much the price of silver is like a beach ball that the Banksters have been holding under water? They have really been beating the hell out of it for the last week, and then WOOSH! From $26.70 to $27.70, wooosh!

[Anakin]

I lightened up on PM stocks just a bit (4%). I'm expecting more downside. This could be a quick reaction to the FOMC statement maintaining monetary policy.

[Hawkeye]

Falling wedge is a bullish down trend reversal pattern so it is out of context being in a strong uptrend. Falling wedges typically end an extended period of down trend.

However 28 is strong support so we might just bounce here! I am looking for a larger correction due to a number of factors but it may not materialize, anywhoooo, if we do rally from here it still don't really qualify!

Can you be more specific?

[Zed]

Sorry.... how about...

NO IT IS NOT A FALLING WEDGE!

[Jodster]

Not much chatter about the "shiny little brother". It's times like this we get blind-sided, no?

BUMP just for the hell of it.........

[anywoundedduck]

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
Feb. 6, 2011
Some exerpts.

Full-blown backwardation has arrived in the COMEX silver futures market. Backwardation suggests that competition for whatever metal is available is heavy and most analysts consider silver backwardation to be a decidedly bullish condition.

This is the first time this has ever happened in silver. This means that silver is in very short supply at the spot price as investors are not willing to sell their metal at spot and buy a futures contract for fear that they will not get the physical metal. This is the first time this has ever happened in silver. The bankers have tried to bid up the prices on silver at the further out months at the comex, trying to keep the facade that silver is in proper contango and ample supplies of silver are with us. This is not true as we now know that silver is in short supply as I have indicated to you on many occasions.

[anywoundedduck]

https://marketforceanalysis.com/arti...cle_02511.html

Last paragraph.

This update of my previous work adds more fuel to the fire that the dynamics of the silver market have dramatically changed. Because silver has been suppressed for so long we do not know what its free market price should be, but we are going to find out soon and I strongly suspect it will be many multiples of the current price.

[ME Co.]

I just sold 115oz so probly go over $30 again Monday- then again my last 3 sales she has dropped like a rock right after. Guess we will see. BTW the ozs were in 40% half dollar form so I don't mind. HH Mark

[Haole]

From what I gather selling physical now or otherwise going forward, and trading bullion in general, aren't the wisest things to do and bullion should be left alone as a core "position"?

With this thing getting weird that takes some nerve the more I think about it...

Do you trade paper gold also Mark?

[ME Co.]

From what I gather selling physical now or otherwise going forward, and trading bullion in general, aren't the wisest things to do and bullion should be left alone as a core "position"?

With this thing getting weird that takes some nerve the more I think about it...

Do you trade paper gold also Mark?

No paper gold or silver. I just sell the 40% halves to be able to keep hunting for them, I hoard all the 90%. HH Mark

[anywoundedduck]

The Mogombo Guru, at his funniest. Good stuff for a good laugh.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_diges...hty020911.html

[King Of Budz]

Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and most commodities all entered the new
year overbought on my technical indicators, and coupled with extreme bullishness.

Those are the conditions from which normal pullbacks are formed. Silver doesn't seem to want to go above 30 right now. I'm bearish on silver on the short term and then I think we are off to new highs. I picked up some ZSL this morning as a speculatory play, we'll see what happens...

[Zed]

Hey....

I know what Strawbosses new years resolution was!

I bet you break it ya kitty!

[Gcubed]

Hey....

I know what Strawbosses new years resolution was!

I bet you break it ya kitty!

He quit smoking? Good for him!!

[anywoundedduck]

According to a few pundits, some Silver Miners recently began hedging their future production by locking in profits. In my opinion, they are playing a dangerous game, and are doing their share holders a great disservice.
If anyone knows any miners that have began hedging, please document this fact, along with any links, on this thread. I, for one, will immediately dump any silver miner that I learn has opened a hedge book.
Thanks,
AWD

[Zed]

Strawboss is a big girls blouse that ran away from GIM! Just like that girly 4daboyz!!!!!

[King Of Budz]

Silver could make a new high today, that still doesn't change my view for the short term. I think that we are seeing a trap, and the correction will only be more severe. Also the DOW does not have much further (~12,400) to go until it makes a top by my charts. The turnaround in the broad markets will help drive silver down.

Keep in mind I'm predicting this in the short term, and the second the charts turn back to the upside we will see new highs across the board.

[anywoundedduck]

Silver could make a new high today, that still doesn't change my view for the short term. I think that we are seeing a trap, and the correction will only be more severe. Also the DOW does not have much further (~12,400) to go until it makes a top by my charts. The turnaround in the broad markets will help drive silver down.

Keep in mind I'm predicting this in the short term, and the second the charts turn back to the upside we will see new highs across the board.

Nice try, but in my opinion:

We are headed for $50+ by years end. Sure, there could be some consolidation on the way, but only minor in nature. I predict that we will see some good runups in the silver miners, that will open the eyes of the public, which will only cause them to run up more.

Fundamentally, with the current shortage of silver, it would be next to impossible for the banksters to orchestrate any downturn in the metal. The Banksters are in trouble, and will soon have to do something to cover their huge short positions on the COMEX. They are trying every trick in the book, including invading gold and silver forums and yahoo messsage boards, but the industrial need for the metal along with investor interest rising, will keep the manipulation in check. If you want to try to time the market, don't. We just had a few GIMMERs recently announce that they sold are wee going to sell their positions. And now they missed this breakout. It was a good hunch because of Contracts on Gold coming due tomorrow, and silver usually follows. Just goes to show you. When you think you got it figured out, you don't. Staying long in a bull market is the smart thing to do.

[StateofJefferson]

According to a few pundits, some Silver Miners recently began hedging their future production by locking in profits. In my opinion, they are playing a dangerous game, and are doing their share holders a great disservice.
If anyone knows any miners that have began hedging, please document this fact, along with any links, on this thread. I, for one, will immediately dump any silver miner that I learn has opened a hedge book.
Thanks,
AWD

US Silver hedged 20% of their production in November at $27.50 per ounce.

[anywoundedduck]

US Silver hedged 20% of their production in November at $27.50 per ounce.

Thanks. I don't own it, but it seems to me they should close that book asap. At least it is just 20%. But they are underwater on that for the last couple of months, and Fundamentals as well as Technicals indicate they have put money down on the wrong horse. JMHO

[Artificial Sheep]

Alright who slipped silver a Viagra?

[Zed]

Alright who slipped silver a Viagra?

Sorry dude... but silver is a brunette with some class... no viagra please!!!!! She has just found your Amex Black.... that is all...

[prophet]

No Rockets plsssssssssss........thanks

[anywoundedduck]

No Rockets plsssssssssss........thanks

No rockets you say? Not even a bottle rocket? What about a submerged beachball being let loose? What about a coiled spring?
$32.71, and rising.

[RichG]

We need to solidify this .. can some of you sell some today?

[anywoundedduck]

We need to solidify this .. can some of you sell some today?

Nope. Because I just got confirmation that Blythe has **** her drawers. I think I will buy some more to help the old girl out. In fact, I believe we all should go out an buy at least one ounce of silver for Blythe.

I love the smell of burning shorts in the morning.

[Dizzy47]

where is the NY cavalery?? need to buy some more

[jbilprophet123]

Holding onto AGQ by biting the finger hard. Last week thursdat it almost did it and then friday.
Not sure if it will get life of its own on Tuesday nyse trading.
Phew how high 35 or 37 before breathing..
Will be so nice if i am able to time say 37 and get back in again at say 34 bottom

Anyway gold 1420-30 and 1460 should be target. Around 1430 will watch. And 1450+ if happens this week will sell AGQ.
Unfortunate the other position i have is GSS which is loosing me nice money in this timeframe.. when AGQ is doing phenominal job..

[prophet]

Guess JPM and HSBC woke up......silver losing all its gains from yesterday

[teamnick]

WHACK!
good morning london

[dosman]

stocks doing no good.

[King Of Budz]

Top might be in here. We'll see. I bought a little more ZSL on friday.

[anywoundedduck]

Silver could make a new high today, that still doesn't change my view for the short term. I think that we are seeing a trap, and the correction will only be more severe. Also the DOW does not have much further (~12,400) to go until it makes a top by my charts. The turnaround in the broad markets will help drive silver down.

Keep in mind I'm predicting this in the short term, and the second the charts turn back to the upside we will see new highs across the board.

And now you have called a top, but I don't think so. That there is a battle royal occurring in the silver pits is without a doubt. But Blythe is going to lose, because she used all of her resources this morning, has no ammo left. The pipeline is clogged with millions of ounces of worthless JPM paper. Deliveries start in about a week or so. As a result we are shortly going to see silver punch through $35, on its way to $50. I am looking for juniors to buy to take advantage of this facade of a pullback. Anyone got a recommedation? Have dry powder, will travel.

[King Of Budz]

As a result we are shortly going to see silver punch through $35, on its way to $50.

This rally is not the next leg up in the long-term bull market (YET). Gold has not yet confirmed the action in silver.

Almost everyone is expecting the metals to head higher, virtually non-stop. That is not the kind of market that you want to be buying into. Real, lasting bull market moves simply do not occur when bullish sentiment is running so high.

The last thing in the world you want to see right now is gold and silver continue to spike higher. That would be more bearish than bullish, short and long term! Remember when oil hit $147 and everyone was screaming for $200?

The technicals show metals (esp silver) are vulnerable to a sharp sell-off at nearly anytime.

Never fear though! This is just what I think. And the long-term technicals & fundamentals are better than ever as well know. There will be a lot of money to be made in metals in 2011 and beyond. This is just not the time to be loading up on pm stocks or etfs.

[jbilprophet123]

And now you have called a top, but I don't think so. That there is a battle royal occurring in the silver pits is without a doubt. But Blythe is going to lose, because she used all of her resources this morning, has no ammo left. The pipeline is clogged with millions of ounces of worthless JPM paper. Deliveries start in about a week or so. As a result we are shortly going to see silver punch through $35, on its way to $50. I am looking for juniors to buy to take advantage of this facade of a pullback. Anyone got a recommedation? Have dry powder, will travel.

AWD: What a great day we are having today!! Just look at copper, platinum, paladium etc..
On a day like this, gold above 1398 and 1400 and silver above 33.00 almost a$ from bottom. After such a huge gains in a row
Anyone not liking this has to be out of mind!!

Well as lately i had posted preservation of gains is also my prime motto now, even then i was unable to pull the trigger to book profits on my AGQ position.
Ofcourse volatility has increased and someone not wanting it should close positions here.

But in that case they should not be in PM sector to start with.
For so many years when we were waiting.. it will be very sad for all those staunch belvrs of PM fundamentals if they miss this ride cause of it is not real or too volatile concerns!!
People got tired of saying and seeing This is It!! but it will be very very sad if majority of them are missing when for the first time i am seeing signs of This is it!! in market action..

Well not me.. Let us see if majority of my gains evaporate with sub 27$ silver or we continue march higher

[jbilprophet123]

On the swing trading front minimum trailing stop loss for gold silver long position imho now should be 1392- of gold.
If it goes below that the preservation of gains trader in me may come alive for part of my position..

[AgShaman]

And now you have called a top, but I don't think so. That there is a battle royal occurring in the silver pits is without a doubt. But Blythe is going to lose, because she used all of her resources this morning, has no ammo left. The pipeline is clogged with millions of ounces of worthless JPM paper. Deliveries start in about a week or so. As a result we are shortly going to see silver punch through $35, on its way to $50. I am looking for juniors to buy to take advantage of this facade of a pullback. Anyone got a recommedation? Have dry powder, will travel.

Nope....Your recommendation will do just fine....I'll put a little twist on your dry powder ditty though...."Have Cool....Will Travel"....meaning: have your dry powder...and keep your cool awaiting next week's show.

Margins get tweaked by the Comex to perhaps garner info for Blythe, as to how many from the "opposition camp" will be planning on standing for delivery. The Psy-Op from the Wynter Benton Group was a ploy to attract smaller players (pawns and cannon fodder) to "lock up" contracts meant to "stand" physical....so that a group of traders could "pool" their positioning with more strength in hopes of securing one goal: They want a fat premium (cash settlement) and have gone to the lengths of showing their hand for all to see (including Blythe). If they can lock up a 25-30% cash settlement payday....their goal has been met and would consider it no big deal to follow up March with a shorting strategy like JPM. The rules on the Comex allow for this strategy of "organized extortion". Higher...is the intended target of the "long" paper traders...but perhaps only short term.

I would not be too trusting of the OI numbers (or any other kind for that matter) put out by the Comex from here on out...the stakes seem higher than normal...and the "Battle Royale" you speak of could very well result in some eye popping volatility.

I would normally be interested in using the opportunity to sell a portion of my stack used for trading...except for the fact that many of the planet's geopolitical storms erupting lately have me wondering if 2011 will be a year to bring a new high in silver prices. If that happens...maybe the rubber band could stretch a little more with late to the party exuberance...and force even further adjustments...like accounting for inflation (new millenium expansion of fiat currency printing). Until that true accounting takes place....these smallish "pullbacks" seem trivial.

If I can afford to "stand pat" and watch the show unfold....the reward seems worth the risk. Selling any physical in this timeframe would be more of just a re-allocation and diversification into mining shares that seem like good leverage plays...where I'm either under-exposed, or looking to finally take a position.

Good luck in Silver!

[prophet]

AWD: What a great day we are having Well not me.. Let us see if majority of my gains evaporate with sub 27$ silver or we continue march higher

jb

You wish so loud and clear!

[silverwood]

I think next week the shorts will begin to beat up silver.I think JPM might surprise people with amount of physical silver they will be able to come up with.

Here is a interesting read that could be explaining what going on in the Silver market...

http://goldharvest.blogspot.com/2011...r-targets.html

What makes sense to me is the wierd action in the mining shares. The action in the shares, as I interpret it, is they are selling off anticipating the raid on the gold price. Larry Edelman anyone? Also I can see those who are inside shorting the miners for the easy money to be made, its all BS in the long run so just keep buying the oversold weakness in your favorite shares and sell strenght as JS has always posited...GLTA

[silverwood]

Wow big raid on Crimex....oversold miners BRD buy @ $1.51, 200ma @ 2.49 also GBG and AEM getting close to buy zone.