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Thread: Silver

  1. Post #151

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    Default Re: Silver

    (5) of [5] is free to go insanely parabolic if it must and overthrow everything!










    P.S. Strawboss, Your thoughts about this chart?
    The author is EW technitian and anti gold-bug. Actually a year ago he spoke about crash to $650. Now he capitulated and project parabolic move, or $1250-1300 as a possible peak.
    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot...te-12-may.html
    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot...te-11-may.html
    I love my metal

  2. Post #152

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    Default Re: Silver

    Prota - thanks for sharing the chart...

    I believe I have been consistent in saying that I believe that gold is heading for $1350ish for this move which will complete wave 1 of MAJOR THREE.

    Quote Originally Posted by prota View Post
    (5) of [5] is free to go insanely parabolic if it must and overthrow everything!










    P.S. Strawboss, Your thoughts about this chart?
    The author is EW technitian and anti gold-bug. Actually a year ago he spoke about crash to $650. Now he capitulated and project parabolic move, or $1250-1300 as a possible peak.
    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot...te-12-may.html
    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot...te-11-may.html
    Jesus Christ IS the only true hope any of us has.

    "Standing in a church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a mechanic". - a quote from Brio

    "Gold is a barometer of the confidence that people have in governments to be responsible and manage their fiscal duties." - a quote from Bullion Only.

    He who sells what isn't his'n / Must buy it back or go to pris'n.

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  4. Post #153

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Charts and commentary here....
    Ya know Straw, that's what I admire about you, you put it out there , right in the open, no bullshieting around.............. Unlike some of our other so called "experts" around here......... LOL.....







    Thanks

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  6. Post #154

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    Default Re: Silver

    We MIGHT have further to go on the upside in both Gold and Silver but this kind of extreme volatility is more indicative of a top area and not a bottom.

  7. Post #155

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    Default Re: Silver

    Quote Originally Posted by prota View Post
    (5) of [5] is free to go insanely parabolic if it must and overthrow everything!










    P.S. Strawboss, Your thoughts about this chart?
    The author is EW technitian and anti gold-bug. Actually a year ago he spoke about crash to $650. Now he capitulated and project parabolic move, or $1250-1300 as a possible peak.
    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot...te-12-may.html
    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot...te-11-may.html
    Ron Rosen? He's been flopping around like a fish out of water for over a year now. Best to get hold of some stuff written by one of the better posters who have left his forum. Alistair Gilbert.

  8. Post #156

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    Default Re: Silver

    Quote Originally Posted by lhslancers3270 View Post
    We MIGHT have further to go on the upside in both Gold and Silver but this kind of extreme volatility is more indicative of a top area and not a bottom.
    Why is that? Volatility is time of uncertainty.
    imvho From 1250 POG drop to 1217 as usual with the kind of move up. But next 30 mins it is back to 1237 indicative more of a lot more energy
    to the upside being left than a MT top being formed imvho.

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  10. Post #157

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    Default Re: Silver

    ""Why is that? Volatility is time of uncertainty.""

    Agree 100%.

    IMHO we are on the verge of a panic,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, then all "rules" are off.

    Da paper game is coming to a close, rationally it has to.

  11. Post #158

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    Default Re: Silver

    The after market in silver on Fridays is very instructive. Usually, the price bleeds downwards. Yesterday, it kept creeping upwards. That is very telling. Viewers of my blog www.bullion-master.com/blog know that I indicated a few days back that a move down to about $18.75 wouldnt be surprising - and would even be healthy - to bleed off some excessive exuberance. I am somewhat surprised that we havent done so. This is telling for 2 reasons - firstly, it gives some insight into the volume of buyers that are lurking - they are meeting the selling in mass preventing the price from falling; secondly, it shows that the usual shenanigans (JPM) are conspicuously absent from the market.

    Having said that, if we dont get a correction, it further validates that we are nearing the end of this move (wave 5 of 1 of MAJOR THREE) and that a blow off top is coming. Gold only needs about $120 (10%) to reach my target. If gold rises that much, silver will probably do a few dollars more.

    Another thought is that because silver is consolidating below $20, it is building strength for the push up and through the previous high above $21. I am not the least bit worried about a double top forming, as the pattern (from top to bottom - $21 to $8) would target silver below $0 which is patently ridiculous.

    I am holding long and strong and advising my subscribers to do likewise. That will probably change in the coming weeks as I will be advising my subscribers to sell into strength on certain stocks (not physical holdings) or to hedge their positions for the coming wave 2 of MAJOR THREE correction that is coming.
    Jesus Christ IS the only true hope any of us has.

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    He who sells what isn't his'n / Must buy it back or go to pris'n.

  12. Post #159

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    Default Re: Silver

    97% Bulls this week. Tops are more volatile than bottoms.

  13. Post #160

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    Default Re: Silver

    1272 gold is weekly resistance. Silver can't close above 19.50. Euro gold needs to consolidate around 1k. Not sure how long, I think lancers got it right until summer solstice.

    p.s. I'm also holding all my stocks, just have patience...

  14. Post #161

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    Default Re: Silver



    Silver is behaving very well of late. Sort of like an unruly kid that suddenly decides to quit being disruptive. This correction - while very possibly not over with yet, has thus far been very mild mannered - for silver. I say this because oftentimes, when silver corrects, it takes your throat with it. The violence is such that it makes you question whether $0 will provide a floor sometimes.

    I think there are some primary reasons for this:

    1. JPM is not playing the games they normally do (naked shorting to artifically increase the volume of sellers). This is because of the CFTC investigation.
    2. There are serious buyers lurking underneath that are taking advantage of dips to enter positions.
    3. There are a massive number of short positions - most of which are underwater.
    4. Those that bought near the top in 2008 are seeing this as an opportunity to unload an unprofitable position.

    Silver is about to take off to the upside. Whether that happens from its current level, or we dip a bit more first, I do not know. When I say take off, I am talking about a $4-5 move in a relatively short period of time. It will take out the previous high above $21 at which point the bullish talk will be at a fever pitch. You will hear of the short position in JPM, the shortage of silver and the inevitable reversion to the mean at 16:1 on the ratio.

    This is the stuff that suckers in those that are late to the party - talk of quick riches with solid reasons. What those suckers arent told is the normal ebb and flow of markets and the importance of picking your entry and exit points using a combination of technical and fundamental considerations.

    After silver breaks through the resistance at $21, it is going to very, very quickly shoot up (probably with a gap) to $23+. My strategy is to sell my miners (except for my core positions) at that time. I will NOT be selling anything else. I may also take out some hedge positions such as DZZ to play the short side as well as buy some puts.

    That violent upside move will signal the completion of wave 5 of 1 of MAJOR THREE and herald in the wave 2 of MAJOR THREE correction. Interestingly enough, this could possibly happen in conjunction with a short covering rally in the Euro and a declining dollar as European traders take profits on speculative positions and others selling their silver as they feel the crisis is over in Euroland.

    Isn't it more fun to speculate on what you think is going to happen instead of all the mindless blather about what has already happened?
    Jesus Christ IS the only true hope any of us has.

    "Standing in a church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a mechanic". - a quote from Brio

    "Gold is a barometer of the confidence that people have in governments to be responsible and manage their fiscal duties." - a quote from Bullion Only.

    He who sells what isn't his'n / Must buy it back or go to pris'n.

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  16. Post #162

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    Default Re: Silver

    On POG front 1350 does not have to be the top of wave 1. It can go another 100$ higher making wave 2 correction to a more reasonable 12-14% to 1200s.
    Is that consistent with that EW counts restriction Strawboss?

    I am seeing amazing strength and the action of 1250 to 1208 probably qualifies 2-4% correction as Alf used to call it. From 1280 to 1228 can qualify for the 4-6% correction
    before the move up humm to 1350 or higher ..
    Once that move up is coupled with falling USD Silver should lead the gold by 2 to 1 atleast ..

  17. Post #163

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    Default Re: $ilver...OK people, lets see some smiles out there!!!

    Everyone seems to be looking up around here.

  18. Post #164

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    Default Re: $ilver...OK people, lets see some smiles out there!!!

    I need to clarify something for any that follow my thread...

    I am no expert on Elliott Wave Theory. I wouldnt even consider myself a novice. If you ask me about the rules, I couldnt even tell you what they are.

    Let me explain...

    I know that EW theory basically says that in a bull market, there are 5 waves (up, down, up, down, up) and that within the MAJOR waves, there are smaller waves that follow the same pattern (up, down, up, down, up) and that there are basically fractals, i.e. patterns within patterns.

    I believe that Alf Fields is the foremost expert on EW theory out there. He is extremely well respected, on many fronts (I did my due diligence on this point). His last update (update #23) says that MAJOR wave 2 ended at $680ish and that he believes MAJOR wave 3 is going to go to $3500.

    If he is correct, you can look at a weekly chart (like I posted last night on Ax's thread) and starting from that low, you can see that we are in the 5th wave, which if the destination is $3500, it must be wave 1 of MAJOR THREE.

    When I use chart patterns, like the inverted head and shoulders for gold with the neckline of approx. $1030ish with a target of $1350, and a cup and handle formation with a similar price objective, coupled with Alf's projections - I put all that together and put together my prognosis.

    For anyone that thinks I know what I am talking about - please, please make up your own mind - do your own due diligence, etc...

    What I post on this thread is what I believe to be true (I hope you know that). I trust that you know that I cant be responsible for your trading decisions...

    As I mentioned this morning - it is fun to try and prognosticate what you think is going to happen based on the information you have available. When you get things right - you feel like "king of the hill". When you get things wrong - you want to go hide in a cave...

    I have people that have paid me money to give them my insights regarding gold, silver and the related mining companies. Some of those are followers of this thread. One of them manages over $3 billion in a hedge fund. Another is a restaurant manager in Des Moines. The only thing I have promised them (and you) is to give you the best I got and to never try to blow smoke up your ass. Unlike many other self proclaimed experts - I will be the first to admit when I blow a call. Hell - I will even go so far to tell you that my next blown call gets closer by the day...(law of averages and all that)...

    I speak with certainty because I believe what I am saying. If I dont know - I will tell you "I dont know". No BS. No trying to pontificate.

    So there. I have absolved myself of any responsibility for the investment/trading choices any of you make. Anything you do must be done based on your own research - your own decisions.

    Having said that... I am feeling pretty good about myself for my call that silver might correct down to about $18.75ish and that we are imminently going to see silver skyrocket higher.

    We havent seen the skyrocket part yet, but, so far, my prognosis for the bottom has been pretty good (off by 10 cents).

    So - now that I have posted this - silver is probably going to tank by $2 - $3 dollars over the next 2 days... I might as well post a picture of a rocket and really seal the deal...

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	silver rocket.jpg 
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ID:	1784
    Jesus Christ IS the only true hope any of us has.

    "Standing in a church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a mechanic". - a quote from Brio

    "Gold is a barometer of the confidence that people have in governments to be responsible and manage their fiscal duties." - a quote from Bullion Only.

    He who sells what isn't his'n / Must buy it back or go to pris'n.

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  20. Post #165

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    Default Re: $ilver...OK people, lets see some smiles out there!!!

    Roflmao. Come on. We all are mature here. I am probably too matured, a side effect of loving golden stocks for a few years.
    We are all guessing with whatever we belv to be fundies and chart undies

    And If have not learned the lesson in 2008 episode i am never going to learn it..

    But i knwo this aint the repeat of 2008, gold is at a much more pivotal role even more than usd fiat i would like to belv
    at this point..

    I do miss SKF and SRS though, came close to buying some selling part of my stock when they were 5-10% higher two days back..
    But then again markets are about to find a bottom somewhere here with usd about to find a top around here ..

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  22. Post #166

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    Default Re: $ilver...OK people, lets see some smiles out there!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by jbilprophet123 View Post
    Roflmao. Come on. We all are mature here. I am probably too matured, a side effect of loving golden stocks for a few years.
    We are all guessing with whatever we belv to be fundies and chart undies

    And If have not learned the lesson in 2008 episode i am never going to learn it..

    But i knwo this aint the repeat of 2008, gold is at a much more pivotal role even more than usd fiat i would like to belv
    at this point..

    I do miss SKF and SRS though, came close to buying some selling part of my stock when they were 5-10% higher two days back..
    But then again markets are about to find a bottom somewhere here with usd about to find a top around here ..
    You might be shocked to see how high the buck goes on this death rattle rally.

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    Default Re: $ilver...OK people, lets see some smiles out there!!!

    You had to do the rocket.

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    Default Re: $ilver...OK people, lets see some smiles out there!!!

    Silverbugs might like the free "silver to the sky report" from Thomson. He's got a good handle on emotions of the market.

    Silver To The Sky Report, Part One
    Silver to the Sky....Now you know why !

    I still got my 90% waiting for better GSR.

  26. Post #169

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    Default Re: $ilver...OK people, lets see some smiles out there!!!

    Looks like silver could have the opportunity to print with a 17 in front. Hey Strawboss, we forgive you!

  27. Post #170

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    Default Re: $ilver...OK people, lets see some smiles out there!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Strawboss View Post
    So - now that I have posted this - silver is probably going to tank by $2 - $3 dollars over the next 2 days...
    I sure hope you're right.

    This time last year silver was around $12 and change and I couldn't load up.

    If it gets under $17 (I won't be too greedy), I'm going to load up.

    Everytime silver drops, I never have any FRNs.

    This time I do. Will the silver gods let me have sub-17 silver just once???

    This is options expiration week which has me worried this is just another head-fake by the paper pushers.

    C'mon $17! Just 1 time is all I ask.

  28. Post #171

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    Default Re: $ilver...OK people, lets see some smiles out there!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by goldmaster View Post
    I sure hope you're right.

    This time last year silver was around $12 and change and I couldn't load up.

    If it gets under $17 (I won't be too greedy), I'm going to load up.

    Everytime silver drops, I never have any FRNs.

    This time I do. Will the silver gods let me have sub-17 silver just once???

    This is options expiration week which has me worried this is just another head-fake by the paper pushers.

    C'mon $17! Just 1 time is all I ask.
    Ahhhh, I thought I was going cRAzY, now I know the reason for the huge sell-off.

  29. Post #172

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    Default Re: $ilver...OK people, lets see some smiles out there!!!

    If it wasnt for the maturity of this wave, I would be buying many of these stocks over the coming days as the technicals turn friendlier. But, I am not as this move is nearing the end (I think we have one final push higher).

    Here is the link to this weeks The Silver Mining Report:

    http://bullion-master.com/the-silver...rt-5_19.10.pdf
    Jesus Christ IS the only true hope any of us has.

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    He who sells what isn't his'n / Must buy it back or go to pris'n.

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  31. Post #173

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    Default Re: $ilver...OK people, lets see some smiles out there!!!

    $17.60ish is holding so far as support (saying this is probably the kiss of death) and if you are a shorter term oriented trader with some loose cash - this would be a good buy area. I am already all in and expecting a push upwards to the low to mid $20's in this upcoming move. My intention is to sell some stock on this upcoming move and then redeploy it on the wave 2 of MAJOR THREE correction that will follow.

    It is instructive that silver didnt follow the markets down today - another data point to suggest that there is a separation that is occurring between silver and the main markets.
    Jesus Christ IS the only true hope any of us has.

    "Standing in a church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a mechanic". - a quote from Brio

    "Gold is a barometer of the confidence that people have in governments to be responsible and manage their fiscal duties." - a quote from Bullion Only.

    He who sells what isn't his'n / Must buy it back or go to pris'n.

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    Default Re: $ilver...OK people, lets see some smiles out there!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Strawboss View Post
    $17.60ish is holding so far as support (saying this is probably the kiss of death) and if you are a shorter term oriented trader with some loose cash - this would be a good buy area. I am already all in and expecting a push upwards to the low to mid $20's in this upcoming move. My intention is to sell some stock on this upcoming move and then redeploy it on the wave 2 of MAJOR THREE correction that will follow.

    It is instructive that silver didnt follow the markets down today - another data point to suggest that there is a separation that is occurring between silver and the main markets.
    Did not follow the markets down today? Maybe I missed something. Half the market destruction was on the open actually in the pre. Looks down 3+% today to me.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails sc.png  

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Strawboss, If you have not already seen the PDF report below, you might want to take a look just to see what the competition is doing. I have looked through it only briefly, but I see there is quite a bit of discussion of individual miners, and it discusses base metals too. You might be interested in comparing your notes and conclusions with his.

    http://www.theresourceinvestor.com/RI-pdf/RI-0410.pdf
    Last edited by Weatherman; 05-23-2010 at 02:37 PM.
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    Default Re: $ilver

    Thanks for the information. I am aware of many of the stock indicated - but, there were several I was not.

    I am more of a believer in technical analysis rather than fundamental. I believe its important to have some knowledge of the fundamentals of individual stocks - but, todays markets (in theory) are so quick to assimilate information...

    Quote Originally Posted by Weatherman View Post
    Strawboss, If you have not already seen the PDF report below, you might want to take a look just to see what the competition is doing. I have looked through it only briefly, but I see there is quite a bit of discussion of individual miners, and it discusses base metals too. You might be interested in comparing your notes and conclusions with his.

    http://www.theresourceinvestor.com/RI-pdf/RI-0410.pdf
    Jesus Christ IS the only true hope any of us has.

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    He who sells what isn't his'n / Must buy it back or go to pris'n.

  36. Post #177

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Yeah, it seems that Silver held up decent this past down week, I was hoping it would not
    break down past $18.20, but that got taken out.
    But Asia open is looking ok for Silver so far at $17.92 May 23 market open.
    The 'spring' it seems can only be pushed down so far
    I know JP Morgan has got some heat on them, and I know there are pending lawsuits
    which are be filed, probably by this week will be official; seperate from the CFTC stuff.
    The lawsuits are about the Silver manipulations of jpm.
    Last edited by Silver-Sun-severed_heads; 05-24-2010 at 12:06 AM.

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Care to share any additional information? It sounds intriguing...

    Quote Originally Posted by Silver-Sun-severed_heads View Post
    Yeah, it seems that Silver held up decent this past down week, I was hoping it would not
    break down past $18.20, but that got taken out.
    But Asia open is looking ok for Silver so far at $17.92 May 23 market open.
    The 'spring' it seems can only be pushed down so far
    I know JP Morgan has got some heat on them, and I know there are pending lawsuits
    which are be filed, probably by this week will be official; seperate from the CFTC stuff.
    The lawsuits are about the Silver manipulations of jpm.
    Jesus Christ IS the only true hope any of us has.

    "Standing in a church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a mechanic". - a quote from Brio

    "Gold is a barometer of the confidence that people have in governments to be responsible and manage their fiscal duties." - a quote from Bullion Only.

    He who sells what isn't his'n / Must buy it back or go to pris'n.

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    Default Re: $ilver

    See what happens in a few minute when london closes. I nibbled on some cde this morning.

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Looks as though they have tried to slap it beck off but have giving up for the day. Going into the weekend I expect they will nail hard but we should get a few days up before that. This is just a swing for me and played it pretty tight @ 3000 I will be ready to flip this short the etf when I see it turn with momo

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Here is the link to this weeks report. Sorry its a bit late this evening - my son had a late baseball game (his first under the lights).

    http://bullion-master.com/the-silver...rt-5_26.10.pdf
    Jesus Christ IS the only true hope any of us has.

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    He who sells what isn't his'n / Must buy it back or go to pris'n.

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Quote Originally Posted by Strawboss View Post
    Here is the link to this weeks report. Sorry its a bit late this evening - my son had a late baseball game (his first under the lights).

    http://bullion-master.com/the-silver...rt-5_26.10.pdf
    Very cool for your son. He's definitely the priority boss.
    I am the last remaining Indian, looking for the place where the buffalo roam.
    In August and everything after, man them buffalo ain't never comin' home

    -Adam Duritz - August and Everything After

    Support the tenth amendment center and nullify now. search it and read about it.

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    Default Re: $ilver

    At least on the 4 hour chart, silver is leading gold higher. If we are truly at the end of a wave (5 of 1 of MAJOR THREE), this is exactly what you would expect. Currently, gold is up far less than 1% while silver is up about 2% as I write this.

    If silver is to challenge the highs above $21 this has to happen - and soon. The reason I think we might see $23ish is because of the overshoot effect that is common in silver. Because the market is so small, even a relatively small amount of money (in the big picture sense) can cause silver to really move. As we approach the previous high, the "hot money" is going to show up, which will cause the spike. When this happens, that will be the signal for you to prepare to sell your mining equities. Put a trailing stop on them at a level of risk you are comfortable with (3%, 5%, 10%, etc...) You will probably get stopped out, but, you might squeeze some additional profit if the spike is stronger than I am anticipating.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Jesus Christ IS the only true hope any of us has.

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    He who sells what isn't his'n / Must buy it back or go to pris'n.

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Silver is outperforming gold because the main market is rallying. Gold and silver have plunged the first two weeks of June in 9 out of the past 10 years. I was suckered every year since 2006 into thinking pm's could continue rallying into June. The only exception was 2005....pm's rallied in June only because they dropped for the entire month of May. Consequently, I hedged all miners positions with a massive DZZ postion today. I'm fully hedged but still get the upside influence of main market rebound on miners.

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1274384859.php

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Quote Originally Posted by FatesWarning View Post
    Silver is outperforming gold because the main market is rallying. Gold and silver have plunged the first two weeks of June in 9 out of the past 10 years. I was suckered every year since 2006 into thinking pm's could continue rallying into June. The only exception was 2005....pm's rallied in June only because they dropped for the entire month of May. Consequently, I hedged all miners positions with a massive DZZ postion today. I'm fully hedged but still get the upside influence of main market rebound on miners.

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1274384859.php
    Great observation. Coupled with the broad market weakness, I see little reason to buy gold shares until mid-June at the earliest.
    To and through $3500, probably, maybe, DYODD.

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    Default Re: $ilver

    yeah, there are a bunch of red flags pointing to further pm correction in June. The most important is the fact the HUI has been so weak underperforming gold and failing to make a new high. I think this is an abc correction, we got the a wave down from 1250, now the b wave bounce, and next week the c wave down. Gold stocks are only up 2% this year! and gold only up 6%. The average of past 9 years is gold up 13% by end of may.

    Also, gold got a safehaven bid in may with the main market plunging and people fleeing the euro. That safe haven money will come out now that spx technicals have turned up. Finally, the big money goes on vacation and volume dries up after memorial day. I'm fully hedged hoping for the typical june plunge so I can scoop back my miners on the cheap. I converted 180k of pm stocks to TCK, MTL, TGB, and JOYG three days ago in the spx panic playing this main market bounce.

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Quote Originally Posted by FatesWarning View Post
    yeah, there are a bunch of red flags pointing to further pm correction in June. The most important is the fact the HUI has been so weak underperforming gold and failing to make a new high. I think this is an abc correction, we got the a wave down from 1250, now the b wave bounce, and next week the c wave down. Gold stocks are only up 2% this year! and gold only up 6%. The average of past 9 years is gold up 13% by end of may.

    Also, gold got a safehaven bid in may with the main market plunging and people fleeing the euro. That safe haven money will come out now that spx technicals have turned up. Finally, the big money goes on vacation and volume dries up after memorial day. I'm fully hedged hoping for the typical june plunge so I can scoop back my miners on the cheap. I converted 180k of pm stocks to TCK, MTL, TGB, and JOYG three days ago in the spx panic playing this main market bounce.
    Larry Edelson doesn't see it that way. If I remember correctly the first time
    silver hit 15 was about mid june and then crashed to 9.60. Have to check
    the exact dates to be sure. PS looked up the charts. It was june 06 briefly
    touched 15 and then crashed to 9.60 intraday in a very short time
    Last edited by lowcommotion; 05-30-2010 at 12:31 PM. Reason: addition

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Quote Originally Posted by lowcommotion View Post
    Larry Edelson doesn't see it that way. If I remember correctly the first time
    silver hit 15 was about mid june and then crashed to 9.60. Have to check
    the exact dates to be sure
    COT improved this week for Silver and Gold so there is a chance we have one more run before a deeper correction. I ddin't see a move under 9.40 spot at the time this chart shows a move to 8 and change. Other than that this chart appears to be accurate. Because Silver has not made new bull market highs over $21.30 since March 2008 15 years off the 1993 bottom there is a chance we are actually in a bear market for Silver. Seems strange I know. Anyway we'll find out over the next year. Here's the chart. I do not like the ROC.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails sc.png  

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Yes, very interesting...I'm glad my doggie bag still weighs less than I do and that's not that much
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bigfoot
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    Default Re: $ilver

    June has been bloody for silver over the past 9 years.


    http://www.zealllc.com/2010/silvseas.htm

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Quote Originally Posted by FatesWarning View Post
    June has been bloody for silver over the past 9 years.


    http://www.zealllc.com/2010/silvseas.htm
    I agree with the article in general.
    However in it they state that jan feb
    are usually the big up months and
    this year was not the case as we
    had a major low first week in Feb.
    While entirely possible that the high
    has been reached the run up is a
    little short on time according to
    Gann so they are still favoring
    another advance. Anyway it will
    be interesting to see how it plays
    out over the next month.

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Quote Originally Posted by lowcommotion View Post
    I agree with the article in general.
    However in it they state that jan feb
    are usually the big up months and
    this year was not the case as we
    had a major low first week in Feb.
    While entirely possible that the high
    has been reached the run up is a
    little short on time according to
    Gann so they are still favoring
    another advance. Anyway it will
    be interesting to see how it plays
    out over the next month.
    Short on time according to Gann? Maybe you could expound a bit on that? I see an 18 month move up off the bottom. You must be assuming we have not seen the ultimate highs. Reasonable I guess but could you explain the time thing a bit? TIA.

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Low, you are correct we didn't get the typical rally in Jan and feb. This was because gold had the blowoff top in early dec. So it messed up the winter seasonals. However, the seasonals were back on track in march. Check the gold and silver charts against hamiltons seasonal chart which I linked. Perfect match since march. Pm's need to prove they can rally through June before I hold through that period again. I have been crushed holding in June 4 years in a row.

    Gold needs to clear the last swing high 1220 asap to turn the chart bullish again. And must take out 1227 too. The 10 day ma crossed below the 20 day, which is bearish. Also, pm's are still under negative macd cross and made lower high so far, which means the trend is still down. Gold has been rallying for 9 weeks, time for a break? Stay tuned.
    Last edited by FatesWarning; 05-30-2010 at 09:10 PM.

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    Default Re: Silver


  58. Post #195

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Quote Originally Posted by FatesWarning View Post
    Silver is outperforming gold because the main market is rallying. Gold and silver have plunged the first two weeks of June in 9 out of the past 10 years. I was suckered every year since 2006 into thinking pm's could continue rallying into June. The only exception was 2005....pm's rallied in June only because they dropped for the entire month of May. Consequently, I hedged all miners positions with a massive DZZ postion today. I'm fully hedged but still get the upside influence of main market rebound on miners.
    The economic, political and geopolitical situation wasn't so explosive then as it is now. I'm no chartist - just amateur - but would be shocked to see a break through support at these levels and would look on them is last minute buying opportunities.

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    Default Re: $ilver

    A few monre concerns. If you pull up the GDX:GLD ratio chart at stockcharts.com. Notice this ratio has been in a downtrend since September meaning gold stocks have been underperforming gold since September. There was an upchannel off the February lows, but we recently dropped out of that channel to the downside. I believe gold stocks underperforming gold is an indicator of the looming typical summer doldrums.

    The economic, political situation is uncontrollable and the news changes everyday so we obviously cannot analyze or predict it. All we can do is look at the technicals, which play a vital role in future price action. Technicals dominate the short term, fundamentals the long term. Peace.

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Quote Originally Posted by FatesWarning View Post
    A few monre concerns. If you pull up the GDX:GLD ratio chart at stockcharts.com. Notice this ratio has been in a downtrend since September meaning gold stocks have been underperforming gold since September. There was an upchannel off the February lows, but we recently dropped out of that channel to the downside. I believe gold stocks underperforming gold is an indicator of the looming typical summer doldrums.

    The economic, political situation is uncontrollable and the news changes everyday so we obviously cannot analyze or predict it. All we can do is look at the technicals, which play a vital role in future price action. Technicals dominate the short term, fundamentals the long term. Peace.
    Here's another way to look at it. This is from Goldtent.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails nov17-2008.png  

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  62. Post #198

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    Default Re: $ilver

    Quote Originally Posted by lhslancers3270 View Post
    Short on time according to Gann? Maybe you could expound a bit on that? I see an 18 month move up off the bottom. You must be assuming we have not seen the ultimate highs. Reasonable I guess but could you explain the time thing a bit? TIA.
    Gann theory is that time is more important
    than price. This latest run up from Feb.
    is quite short relative to most bull market
    runs. That's not to say that it couldn't be
    over but the odds are still in favor of more
    upside until a correction.

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    Default Re: $ilver



    Silver to me looks very bullish on the daily chart. Notice the fib retracement levels drawn and how the price has moved up the "stairs" of the retracement levels - only recently moving above the top level and already having done a backtest of it. We are currently sitting not far above that level - which should provide good support. That is the $17.60 level I has talked about several times previously. Also notice the blue circles I have drawn. Silver has touched each fib level and tested it as support - textbook price action.

    I believe that silver is setting up for a parabolic upward move that will be swift and furious - putting immense pressure on the shorts. It will signal the completion of wave 5 of 1 of MAJOR THREE and will take silver to approx. $23 or so (perhaps a bit higher on a spike).

    Dont let the talking heads scare you out of your positions. Most definitely dont let them convince you to put shorts on hoping to capitalize on price weakness. That would be playing into their hands. Stay long. Stay strong.

    If I am wrong (and when your business is predicting what gold and silver will do - you will be wrong sometimes) you will still be ok, because this bull market is by no means done and prices will go much higher. Your only risk if I am wrong is that you will be sitting on positions and have to wait for a bit for price to bail you out. That fact is what is so beautiful about trading with the primary trend. When you are wrong - the market will bail you out.

    Relax. Have a nice enjoyable weekend. The bull market in gold and silver is alive and well - and has much further to go before all is said and done.
    Jesus Christ IS the only true hope any of us has.

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    Default Re: $ilver - a few charts for the "long run"

    <a href="http://s268.photobucket.com/albums/jj5/4dabopper/?action=view&current=94143387.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj5/4dabopper/94143387.jpg" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>
    600 year chart of silver
    <a href="http://s268.photobucket.com/albums/jj5/4dabopper/?action=view&current=600yearsilver.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj5/4dabopper/600yearsilver.gif" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>
    http://www.gold-speculator.com/edito...rt-silver.html


    Supply, supply, supply

    <a href="http://s268.photobucket.com/albums/jj5/4dabopper/?action=view&current=1SilverBullionInventory.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj5/4dabopper/1SilverBullionInventory.gif" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>




    Never has truer words been spoken


    ""That fact is what is so beautiful about trading with the primary trend. When you are wrong - the market will bail you out.""

    Great thread Straw!

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