TRADING DISCUSSION - GOLD

[AGRO]

Hello all,
Hopefully we will get some people back from the old GIM.

In any Case this thread is devoted to TRADING GOLD.
YES, Paper Gold.
I hold and love my physical too..

Essentially, all physical buyers are traders. You can't take it to the grave. Sorry. Don't you look for the best buy in and the best sale? even if over 5 or 10 years???

So do traders, except usually on a much shorter time frame.
Free and welcome to all. Stop in give a shout, ask a question.
AGRO-

[Sindgefallen]

Do you trade the ETF's like gld, slv and the like or is there some other vehicle that yo trade such as futures,forex etc?

I used to short the metals at peaks but have for some reason never traded slv,gld. But am looking into focusing on tis in the near future but GLD and SLV do not seem to as accurately track h futures an spot price. Seems little unreliable beyond the dilution of the shares' backing.

[Weatherman]

Essentially, all physical buyers are traders. You can't take it to the grave. Sorry. Don't you look for the best buy in and the best sale? even if over 5 or 10 years???

So do traders, except usually on a much shorter time frame.
Free and welcome to all. Stop in give a shout, ask a question.
AGRO-

Agro, This thread is a great idea! If this was the start of an AA meeting, I would stand up and say "My name is Weatherman, and I am a trader." I am usually in denial about that truth because I seldom sell more than once a year so I just don't think of myself as a trader. When metals thrust higher this year, however, I will sell some of the positions I have held for years. Until then, I will follow this thread in hopes that some of the traders here will demonstrate that trading more often is consistently more profitable than buying a bull market like gold during sell offs, and holding for months (or years!) to sell during price spikes higher. I would be especially impressed by the results obtained when posting real time (or nearly so) about specific buy or sell actions. It will be very helpful to be able to see in real time how a trader does his magic! Here's hoping that all of us have the very best of luck in the months ahead.

[Oldmansmith]

I've never sold a thing. But that's just me. I don't want to be caught outsde on the big set. And the big set could see gold unavailable at any price in FRN's.

[Weatherman]

I've never sold a thing. But that's just me. I don't want to be caught outsde on the big set. And the big set could see gold unavailable at any price in FRN's.

I well know the feeling that the night after I take some profits, all hell will break loose around the world, and gold will open for trading the next day priced in five digits. It takes all the will power I can muster to grab a few profits, and then leave some cash in my account that is defenseless against the economic storms that I am sure will come. When the time comes to sell a portion of my position, however, I remember a good article from April 2004 with a great title: Silver a Sell, Unless The Jig is Up That title reminds me that unless I am really almost sure that TS will HTF very soon, I need to take some profits off the table when the markets are exploding to the upside. Since I am fully invested, it is those cashed out profits that will enable me to buy other assets or to have dry powder for an almost inevitable correction. Besides, even if silver jumps up to four digit prices but I sold 10% or even 20% of my portfolio too early, I can survive with making obscene profits on the remaining 80% or 90%.

[AGRO]

WOW! I actually thought I DELETED this thread! But it seems it kept its muster some how.

What a Great response and you have encouraged me to write, especially after a substantial correction, yet NEverTheLess, the TRUE support at 1195/8 area proved to come in on testing of thursdays commodity selling. 1200 is more a psychological level and an even number to describe truer support that Does exist below.

Since there seems to be some interest, I will continue to post, There are some GREAT traders here, and throughout the years I have learned quite a bit from reading here.

SO.

Weatherman, I have always enjoyed your posts and I have, myself, been on Hiatus or Sabbatical from GIM due to the years of effort and posting, I put in wiped out.
WHATEVER.

THis is a GOLD forum and there should be a WAY more active traders section here. IN FACT. All these guys on here that just stack physical could learn a LOT or at least save themselves some FRNs
on Buys - BY- listening to the trader talk and watching the charts. Hey Buy at 1240 or 1200?

In essence a physical buyer is similar to a trader that trades a monthly chart and is a position taker for major swings, IE: correction to 1050 move to 1250 -
In trading, this would be a nice position trade from two swings over time.

Day trading and/or scalping is a completely different animal. YET, if you guys really are interested to hear and see some gold scalping I will do the posts with some charts.

In the next few posts over the weekend I will share my means of trading Gold. I hope many will contribute, and follow the thread. Without this one response I would likely have never posted in this thread I made again.

At this point I want to get one thing out of the way that I have been thinking about for some time.
I don't know, (over the threads - saved my numi dictionary!) and I don't care at this point what the reason was for the deletion.. It is what it is. Like holding a bad trade, cut the losses short.
So, I would like to thank the mods, (seems like Goldhedge, Scorp and Skyvike, Founding Fathers) for at least keeping the forum alive.

OK, down to business.
WELCOME all!
AGRO

1

Agro, This thread is a great idea! If this was the start of an AA meeting, I would stand up and say "My name is Weatherman, and I am a trader." I am usually in denial about that truth because I seldom sell more than once a year so I just don't think of myself as a trader. When metals thrust higher this year, however, I will sell some of the positions I have held for years. Until then, I will follow this thread in hopes that some of the traders here will demonstrate that trading more often is consistently more profitable than buying a bull market like gold during sell offs, and holding for months (or years!) to sell during price spikes higher. I would be especially impressed by the results obtained when posting real time (or nearly so) about specific buy or sell actions. It will be very helpful to be able to see in real time how a trader does his magic! Here's hoping that all of us have the very best of luck in the months ahead.

[AGRO]

I love HAWK's chart's and Ax's notes. Hopefully, they will both stop by at some point as this not intended to be a contrary thread to their threads, rather a place for people who are trading gold live or discussing potential setups to hang out and exchange thoughts and plans amongst a good bunch.

All are welcome here. IF you wan't to bash trading paper, please save us the time of your two cents. Because the truth is while you are writing, one may already be on the next trade. As a trader, your GOAL is not to hold paper, yet rather to profit from it / and all of us on here own physical metals.

The point is to amplify through putting a fraction of the cost of the metal controlled in the trade UP, to make a profit. When scalping the goal is to put on a trade and close it at your optimal exit whether it is a few minutes or even seconds if need be hours. But exits are done at days end. We can get into the markets later.

Matter of fact. I'm sure everyone here knows the kitco Global spot chart.
THe boxes at the bottom have market hours globally and show the overlaps.

[Weatherman]

Agro, Welcome back! Your energy and trading optimism have been missed here. I'm sure that faster traders will get into this thread, but I'll kick it off with a slow trade I began Thursday afternoon. I used approximately 1% of my trading capital to buy PAAS at 24.35 after the huge sell off Thursday morning. As shown in the chart below, PAAS actually closed higher Thursday than my purchase point, though it dipped below a little on Friday. I posted soon after making that purchase, and I posted a link there about an analyst's PAAS upgrade. The main reason for buying a silver miner is that silver is close to the bottom of its 15 month long uptrend channel (chart below). My short term target is the top of channel line a little above $23 for silver. At that point, I will sell some PAAS I bought at lower prices some time ago to get long term capital gains, and I will keep this recent purchase for a much higher price target, hopefully by December. If silver drops out the bottom of the up channel before I can take profits, then I will reveal my true nature as more of a buy and hold type. I cannot sell anything related to precious metals at lower prices, because that is exactly the time that I really want to buy more. Wish me luck, and post some of your more conventional short term trades.

[AGRO]

Weatherman, seems like a nice play. I don't trade stocks, yet would like to at some point.

Here is a post I wrote in my thread, earlier on a currency trading (FX Forum) some of the thread followers are new/er to gold. I figured instead of re-writing I would just throw it up here as well.

---------------
I am working on some simple charts on my downtime this weekend.

My suggestion going into Monday (NY Bank Holiday) to proceed with caution on Gold.

Look for either of the two on these scenarios. (always look at H4 to Daily for S/R levels and use your interpretation and instinct to set comfortable stops and take profit zones) --edit 1

Using M30 or H1. Look for rejections of higher price old supports that may flip to resistance ie:1245 zone to take shorts (in and out)

Likewise look for tests of old levels to breakout/thru on retracement. Distinguish the bias based on Price Action. (S/R) news and marketS' sentiment

If the level of 1196 support zone is breached substantially and Held - look short to 1175 - 1165 area for support and TP area. Here we will have a powerful area where the lower trend line of trend from 02/2010 as well as horizontal support coinciding.

If this is hit, could be a potentially awesome longer term entry to test 1300.

Now - to negate shorts.
we want a stable price range above 1200 possible range / sideways movement with an uptrend or breakouts will do.

First testing 1222 area with outlook to 1240/45 with potential resistance coming in around 1236.

Finally a break above 1245 and close should negate all minor short plays for now flipping the bias to strongly bullish and set sights for 1250 and 1265 to
next 1275 - 1300- and 1350.

Regards and enjoy the weekend!
X

Edit 2- if you are sizing up a trade (for shorter term trades) and the stop is too wide ( long or short,) wait, do not take it. Zoom the charts out and look for a more favorable (but reasonable) potential entry allowing for safer / better entries, lowering risk and increasing profits, while testing your initial target.

[tomexxtra]

Do you want trading instructions?
Circle your Calendar on August 27th & write BUY.
August 31st will be the lowest point for the rest of the year.
What I mean is from Sept 1st on, Gold will go up.
Last year I gave my "Last Warning to Buy Gold under $1,000"
and it was at the end of August.
It held true & should hold true again this year, where gold just
goes up starting Sept 1st.till DEC.
What's the price of gold in DEC?
Should be $1400 sumthing that's still averaging 17% a year.

[Ragnarok]

+1 imo^ (see seasonal chart below. I don't trade paper though.)
2c, R.

[AGRO]

Today I bought around 1343 and sold around 1350.

Bought again at 1343 and got stopped out at 1339.25.......

Gold seems to be in a corrective slide. Yet I wont be surprised if we bottom out soon as it's looking like we may be a bit oversold.

Other positions

Long EUR/USD
Long GBP/USD
Long AUD/USD
Short USD CHF

[DFM]

Fairly new in the silver, gold camp. Bought my first physical Jan 2010, most bought by spring. I am very glad. However, because a lot of my $$ are in self-directed IRA's, I wanted to also "buy precious metals" or get exposure to them (I know, just paper) in those accounts. So I bought some GLD, and some TGLDX (mutual fund).

Question: If I want to add to ETF's, and or trade in and out some, is there a reason to favor one or the other of the ETF's: GLD, IAU, or SGOL.
Question: If I want to hold long term, then which ETF would you favor and why?
Thanks for this thread