1. Have a great weekend!
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  2. Gold and Silver finish the week down
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  3. Week of 4/29/2017 Closing prices & Chg Over Last Wk---- Gold $1268.30-- DOWN 20.80 Silver $17.19-- down 61 Oil $49.33-- down 0.29 USD $98.89 -- down 0.99

R.T.M. ~ Frontrunning ~ 1st Ed., Vol.3 ~ Jan 2nd - 6th

Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Jan 1, 2017.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Clif High-2017 Predictions on Everything
    Greg Hunter



    Published on Dec 31, 2016
    Internet data mining expert Clif High uses calls what he does “Predictive Linguistics,” to mine the Internet and collects billions of data points to produce forecasts of the future. High has predictions on Trump, gold, silver, housing, stocks, bonds, the dollar, interest rates and even new discoveries that will change the world that are coming out of Antarctica.

    Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Clif High of HalfPastHuman.com.

    All links can be found on USAWatchdog.com in the “After the Interview” section of this post: http://usawatchdog.com/2017-predictio...
     
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    Last edited: Jan 2, 2017
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    European Stocks Greet The New Year By Rising To One Year Highs; Euro Slides

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Jan 2, 2017 7:26 AM


    While most of the world is enjoying it last day off from the 2017 holiday transition, with Asia's major markets closed for the New Year holiday, along with Britain and Switzerland in Europe and the US and Canada across the Atlantic, European stocks climbed to their highest levels in over a year on Monday after the Markit PMI survey showed manufacturing production in the Eurozone rose to the highest level since April 2011.

    [​IMG]

    “Euro-zone manufacturers are entering 2017 on a strong footing, having ended 2016 with a surge in production,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit. “Policy makers will be doubly-pleased to see the manufacturing sector’s improved outlook being accompanied by rising price pressures.”

    Some details from today's PMI report:

    The eurozone manufacturing sector ended 2016 on a high note. At 54.9 in December, up from 53.7 in November, the final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® posted its best reading since April 2011 and was unchanged from the earlier flash estimate. The average for the final quarter (54.0) was solidly above that for the third quarter (52.1) and signalled the fastest growth since the second quarter of 2011. Moreover, the average PMI reading over 2016 as a whole (52.5) was the highest annual average since 2010.

    [​IMG]



    National data pointed to a broad-based improvement in operating conditions, with headline PMI readings rising in all seven* of the countries covered by the survey. Growth was strongest in the Netherlands and Austria, with rates of expansion hitting levels last achieved over five-and-a-half years ago. PMI indices hit a near three-year high in Germany, an 11-month peak in Spain and a 67-month record in France. Italy, in sixth position overall, also saw its pace of growth improve, while the rate of contraction in Greece eased to the weakest during the current four-month sequence of decline.

    Underlying the improved performance of the eurozone manufacturing sector was faster growth of production and new orders. Rates of expansion in both were either at, or close to, the steepest since early-2011. Six out of the seven* nations covered by the survey saw faster increases in output and new business. The exception was Greece which recorded weaker rates of contraction.

    Perhaps as a result of another rogue algo operating in thin markets, today it was the Euro's turn to tumble, and instead of rejoicing at this manufacturing strength, the European currency took no comfort from the figures, and suddenly dipped by 40 pips, sliding 0.3% back below $1.05 after climbing to as high as $1.07 during a flash surge in low trading volumes in Asia on Friday.


    [​IMG]

    The weakness in the currency, however, was ignored by stocks and in early trading the euro zone's blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index as well as the broader STOXX 600 rose by 0.5% to its highest since December 2015 after the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for factories in the currency bloc came in at 54.9 - well above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.

    Italy's stock index hit its highest level since January last year, outperforming other major European stock indexes, with a rally in its banks and a strong manufacturing report improving sentiment. Italy's FTSE MIB index was up 1.3% by 1000 GMT after rising to its highest since January 15 of 2016. Germany's DAX was up 0.9% at its highest in nearly 17 months, while France's CAC was up 0.3 percent after hitting a 13-month peak earlier in the day.

    Meanwhile, as European stocks climbed, a full blown rally across all assets also pushed down the yields on lower-rated government bonds in the euro zone to multi-week lows. Italian, Spanish and Portuguese 10-year bond yields were down roughly 8 basis points each on the day. It wasn't just lower rated bonds, as yields on 10Y Bunds dropped to 0.157%, the lowest since the Trump election, and suggesting that the Trumpflation rally, at least in Europe, has largely fizzled at least based on long-end inflation expectations in Europe's benchmark bond security.

    [​IMG]

    The dollar index, which flash crashed on the last trading session of 2016 during thin, illiquid conditions in Asia, climbed 0.4 percent, and traded at 102.36 as of this posting. The Japanese yen - traditionally used as a safe haven - falling 0.3 against the dollar, close to an 11-month low.

    "In the last days of 2016 we saw the dollar retreat somewhat, and there might be some sense of a correction from Europe this morning. I don't see any fundamental drivers for the moves," said Commerzbank currency strategist Esther Reichelt, in Frankfurt.

    Despite yet another terrorist shooting in Turkey, one which the Islamic State took responsibility for the murder of 39 people in an Istanbul nightclub, most markets remained unfazed by ongoing political disturbances. "After all the big political shocks last year and muted market reaction, it is tempting to argue that the markets are very resilient," said Finland-based Nordea chief market strategist Jan Von Gerich. "I would say this is too optimistic an assumption and I think we will see more volatility this year."

    "The problem is that this once again stresses the increasing instability and the security issues, and we’re seeing tourist numbers going down, which will have a lasting negative impact on the Turkish economy...and that’s Turkish lira-negative," said Commerzbank's Reichelt.

    The Turkish lira slipped 0.4 percent after the attack to 3.5384 per dollar, close to a record low of 3.5840 lira touched in December.

    Data released over the weekend showed China's manufacturing sector expanded for a fifth month in December, though growth slowed a touch more than expected in a sign that government measures to rein in soaring asset prices are starting to have a knock-on effect on the broader economy. The Chinese yuan suffered its biggest annual loss in more than 20 years in 2016, with an almost 7 percent fall making it the worst-performing currency in Asia.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-02/
     
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    TCS - Major Asset Classes | December 2016 | Performance Review
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-december-2016-performance-review/

    DB - Opening Bell: 1.2.17
    http://dealbreaker.com/2017/01/opening-bell-1-2-17/

    Naked Capitalism Links 01/02
    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/01/links-122017.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 01/02
    http://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    LT - Outlook for Week of January 2
    https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2017/01/02/outlook-for-week-of-january-2/

    CWS - Morning News: January 2, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/01/morning-news-january-2-2017.html

    TBP - 10 Monday (New Years Day Observed) Reads 01/02
    http://ritholtz.com/2017/01/monday-new-years-day-observed-reads/

    MtM - Canadian Dollar Bulls and Aussie Bears Add Exposure into Year-End 01/02
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/01/canadian-dollar-bulls-and-aussie-bears.html
     
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    2017 – The Year of Monetary Revolution
    By: Andrew Hoffman
    In the past month, I’ve espoused many beliefs of what 2017 will bring – deeming it to likely be a year of money printing and draconian government actions. In fact, following an historic year of political, economic, and monetary change, the best possible description for what I anticipate in the next 12 months, is “monetary revolution.” Which, in turn, may catalyze the most dramatic status quo changes of our lifetimes, for anyone born in the post-War era.
     
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    2017 Gold & Silver Price Forecast: A Survey
    SalivateMetal



    Published on Jan 2, 2017
     
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    2017 Starts Off With A Bang: US Futures, Oil Jump On Upbeat China Data; Europe Enters Bull Market

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Jan 3, 2017 6:21 AM


    Rumors of the Trumpflation rally's death have been greatly exagerated, and not only is the Dow 20,000 back on the radar, following a 124 point surge in Dow futures, bringing the "key psychological level" back within 100 points, but European stocks rose for a third day and entered a bull market, rising 20% from theor lows set last February, following strong Chinese manufacturing and services PMI data, both of which ended 2016 on robust notes well inside expansion territory.

    [​IMG]

    While much of Europe had been open on Monday, it was the first day back for its biggest stock market, Britain's FTSE 100 and it wasted no time in hitting a new record high of 7,196 points with a 0.7% gain. Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 climbed too and among individual stock movers, Italian banks were back amongst the top risers, with newly-merged Banco BPM up 4.6 percent on its second day of trading. Overall, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.8% at 8:33 a.m. in London, with 18 of 19 industry segments climbing. The benchmark index, up 20 percent since a low last February, will confirm a bull market should the day’s gains hold into the close. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index, trading for the first time in 2017, is up 0.7 percent and heading for a record close.

    US equity futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.7 percent, back over 2,251, while the Dow Jones was set to open back over 19,900.

    In a reversal from the first trading days of 2016, when a selloff in Chinese equities roiled markets globally, the world’s second-largest economy has been a source of strength at the start of 2017. Weekend reports showed China’s official factory gauge steadied while services remained robust, capping a year of improvement in both indicators. A private manufacturing measure released Tuesday came in better than anticipated.

    “A year ago, the Chinese markets kept everyone on their toes,” said Jingyi Pan, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte. “A year later, the outlook certainly appears to be more optimistic, though we may have to bring back the catchphrase of ‘cautious optimism’ going into the new year as we search for clarity.” "I don’t think that we will see a repeat given that the global economy has a better foothold compared to a year ago," Pan said.

    Overnight in Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares rose 0.6 percent as most regional markets reopened after the New Year holiday although Japan's Nikkei was still closed. Australian shares were the best performers in the region, closing up 1.2 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI rose 0.7 percent while in China, both the CSI 300 index and the Shanghai Composite .climbed 1 percent. China was Asia's worst performing major stock market in 2016 with a 11.3 percent loss in its worst year in five.

    Commodity-linked stocks jumped 1.3 percent as oil and metals prices cheered the China data that had showed output from the country's giant manufacturing sector reaching a near six-year high. It bolstered the 'reflation' theme that dominated the latter stages of 2016 and helped get currency and bond markets back in their pre-break rhythm after a mixed recent run. The U.S. dollar racked up its biggest rise in almost three weeks against a basket of the world's other major currencies to leave it just 1 percent off December's 14-year high. As shown in the chart below, the Dollar Index (DXY) jumped as US yields moved sharply higher, w/ 10y yields rising from 2.4350% to over 2.51%.

    [​IMG]

    In commodities, oil prices jumped over 2% in Europe as the China data fed into a market that is being buoyed by hopes a deal including OPEC and non-OPEC producer countries will drain the recent global supply glut. Oil was the world's best-performing major asset class in 2016, with a gain of around 50 percent and global benchmark Brent was up 2.7% at $58.31 by 0945 GMT as U.S. crude topped $55 a barrel.

    "Markets will be looking for anecdotal evidence for production cuts," Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets said. "The most likely scenario is OPEC and non-OPEC member countries will be committed to the deal, especially in early stages."

    The positive Chinese news lifted the Australian dollar, which added 0.6 percent to $0.7230, while gold sagged, with the precious metal dropping 0.3 percent to $1,148 an ounce. Back in Europe, the pick ups in Germany and French inflation came on the heels of data on Monday showing manufacturers ramped up activity at the fastest pace in more than five years in December.

    In China, Starting on Jan. 1, the number of currencies in the CFETS basket increased to 24 from 13, with new entrants including the Korean won, the South African rand and the Mexican peso. The country's foreign exchange regulator also said it would step up scrutiny of individuals' foreign currency purchases and strengthen punishment for illegal outflows, although the $50,000 annual individual quota will remain unchanged. The renminbi posted its biggest annual loss since 1994 last year, with the dollar up almost 7 percent versus the Chinese currency.

    Long-term inflation expectations in the euro zone, measured by the five-year, five-year forward rate are near their highest levels in more than a year and close to the ECB's near 2 percent target, as the central bank prepares to pare back the pace of its money-printing scheme. "Until just a few weeks ago, the general consensus was that upside inflation risks were very limited however... the inflation rate scheduled to be published today is likely to reveal a significant uplift," DZ Bank strategist Birgit Figge told Reuters.

    So with stocks rising on hopes of a return in inflation, it would mean that rates should dip, and indeed Treasuries dropped, with 10-year yields rising 7 bps basis points to 2.514%. U.S. cash bonds opened in London this morning having been closed since Dec. 30. German bonds fell as regional data showed inflation is accelerating. The yield on the nation’s 10-year securities dropped to the lowest level since November on Monday. French bonds were among the biggest decliners in Europe after the nation was said to mandate banks for the sale of a new Green bond in the 15- to 30-year area. France is due to sell 10-, 20-, 30- and 50-year bonds on Jan. 5.

    * * *

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 2251
    • Stoxx 600 up 0.7% to 366
    • FTSE 100 up 0.7% to 7194
    • DAX up less than 0.1% to 11603
    • German 10Yr yield up 2bps to 0.21%
    • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.75%
    • Spanish 10Yr yield up 2bps to 1.36%
    • S&P GSCI Index up 0.7% to 400.9
    • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.2% to 135
    • Nikkei 225 closed
    • Hang Seng up 0.7% to 22150
    • Shanghai Composite up 1% to 3136
    • S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 5733
    • US 10-yr yield up 4bps to 2.48%
    • Dollar Index up 0.38% to 103.17
    • WTI Crude futures up 1.4% to $54.46
    • Brent Futures up 1.6% to $57.71
    • Gold spot down less than 0.1% to $1,151
    • Silver spot up 0.4% to $16.00
    Top Healdine News
    • Jain Finds His Second Act as Ex-Deutsche Bank Chief Joins Cantor: Smaller firm hires global bank’s former rainmaker as president
    • China’s Sogou Targets IPO at $5 Billion Valuation to Chase Baidu: Listing of about 10% of shares in U.S. may happen this year
    • LSE Agrees to Sell Clearing Unit to Euronext for $533 Million: Deal may be completed by the end of the second quarter
    • China’s Factories, Services Cap Year of Gains as Prices Rise: Private manufacturing PMI by Caixin and Markit confirmed the strength in official data
    • SpaceX Plans Return to Flight With Jan. 8 Launch After Explosion: Liftoff from Vandenberg Air Force Base first since Sept. 1
    • BlackRock ETFs Attract Record $140 Billion on Bonds, Smart Beta: Investors added $27 billion to U.S. Core ETF after price cut
    • Fiat Chrysler Pauses From Gas-Guzzlers to Show Electric Minivan: Automaker unveils self-driving Chrysler Portal concept at CES
    • ‘Rogue One’ Takes in $64.3 Million for Disney Over Weekend: Movie industry sets record with $11.4 billion in annual sales
    • Pence, House Republicans to Talk Obamacare Repeal Wednesday
    • Comcast, 21st Century Fox Reach Agreement on Fox News: WSJ
    Asian equity markets began the first session of 2017 on the front-foot despite last Friday's negative close on Wall St where all 3 major indices finished lower and the DJIA retreated further away from 20,000. ASX 200 (+1.1%) led the Asia-Pac region and posted a fresh 16-month high amid broad based gains, with only the gold sector trading in the red. Shanghai Comp. (+1.0%) and Hang Seng (+0.6%) conformed to the upbeat tone following better than expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data which rose to a near 4-year high and printed a 6th consecutive month in expansion territory, although gains across the region have been somewhat reserved amid rising money market rates in China and several market closures including Japan.

    Top Asian News
    • China Gets Stricter on Forex Transactions to Limit Outflows: Citizens face extra disclosure requirements even as yearly quota of foreign currency was unchanged
    • Indonesia Terminates JPMorgan Partnerships After Downgrade: Finance ministry will stop using JPM as primary dealer, underwriter of sovereign bonds
    • South Korea Halts Some Nissan, BMW Sales in Emissions Probe: Total fines of $5.9 million slapped on three companies
    • Infosys, Wipro Leaders Warn of Challenging Times for Indian IT: Warn that industry faces grave threat from rising political, economic conflict around the world
    • China to London Freight Train Kicked Off as Xi Boosts Trade Ties: Train will cover more than 7,000 miles in about 18 days
    In Europe, 2017 has kicked off as 2016 finished, with equities trading higher for much of the morning as the FTSE hits fresh all-time highs (+0.6%). Stock specific news has been relatively light so far today, however notable outperformance has been seen in the financial sector, with energy names also outperforming amid WTI crude futures printing 18-month highs. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.8% at 8:33 a.m. in London, with 18 of 19 industry segments climbing. The benchmark index, up 20 percent since a low last February, will confirm a bull market should the day’s gains hold into the close. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index, trading for the first time in 2017, is up 0.7 percent and heading for a record close. The latest data has been supportive of bond yields, with the German 10Y briefly moving above 0.24% amid the higher than previous regional CPIs, which have printed around 1.8-1.9% Y/Y so far. The latest German unemployment figures saw a fall in unemployment, further supporting yields. Elsewhere, Gilt yields have also seen strength this morning in the wake of a significant beat in UK Manufacturing PMI (56.1 vs. Exp. 53.3), seeing the highest reading since June 2014.

    Top European News
    • Pound Drop Boosts U.K. Manufacturing, Pushes Up Factories’ Costs: Manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in 2 1/2 years in December
    • German Unemployment Extends Drop as Economic Growth Picks Up: Unemployment fell by 17,000 versus estimated 5,000 decline
    • Paris Eyes Luring 20,000 Bankers From London Amid Brexit Rupture: French lobby group sees banks ‘accelerating’ their planning
    • Biggest Swedish Business Group Predicts Weak Krona Won’t Last: Stronger currency could have ‘fast and unpleasant’ effect
    In commodities, crude oil rose to $55.24 a barrel in New York, touching the highest level since July 6, 2015, buoyed by hopes that a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC members to cut production, which kicked in on Sunday, will drain a global supply glut. Benchmark Brent crude jumped more than 2 percent to a high of $58.37, up $1.55 a barrel and its highest since July 2015. By 0940 GMT (4:40 a.m. ET), Brent eased slightly to trade at $58.22, up $1.40. Gold added 0.1 percent to $1,148.5. Aluminum increased 0.1 percent to $1,694 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, while nickel jumped 1.6 percent to $10,180 a ton and copper rallied 1 percent to $5,593 an ounce.

    In currencies, the Dollar Index was up 0.7 percent. The yen slid 0.5 percent to 118.14 per dollar, giving up an earlier advance. The euro erased earlier gains against to trade down 0.4 percent against the greenback. South Korea’s won rose 0.4 percent, while the Australian dollar strengthened 0.3%.

    US Event Calendar
    • 9:45am: Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Dec. F, est. 54.2 (prior 54.2)
    • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, Dec., est. 53.7 (prior 53.2)
    • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, Nov., est. 0.5% (prior 0.5%)
    * * *

    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    A very Happy New Year to all our readers this morning and a warm welcome to 2017. Today’s EMR is a bit of a bumper edition and concludes with the December, Q4 and 2016 performance review at the end. It would probably be an understatement to say that 2016 has been - more than ever - a year in which we’ve all had to put our political analyst hats on. Trump and Brexit were the obvious headline events which characterised 2016 but that’s not to say that Central Banks haven’t been busy too with the Fed, BoJ, ECB and BoE all keeping us busy and laying the platform to what we think will be a volatile year ahead for rates. Commodity markets have also more than played their part, with a number of benchmark commodities hitting record lows early in the year before staging a remarkable rebound into year end. The good news is that the vast majority of assets ended the year on a high in December with 30 of the 39 assets within our sample (excluding currencies) delivering a positive total return last month in USD hedged terms.

    As well as this, we’ve also got the usual week ahead preview at the end. Despite it being a holiday shortened week there’s little easing into the New Year with the diary fairly jam-packed with important releases. One of the highlights will be the FOMC minutes from the December meeting, due on Wednesday evening, which could be interesting given the slightly more hawkish than expected elements from the statement and of course the excitement caused by the moves in the dots. Also on the cards for this week is the US December employment report on Friday including the ever-important nonfarm payrolls print. We’ll preview that later in the week. The manufacturing and services ISM prints will also be due out while in Europe we’ll also get a number of December inflation reports due out over the next few days. Away from the data President-elect Trump should also continue to fill in the blanks of his administration ahead of his official inauguration later this month. So plenty to keep us on our toes and to talk about.

    For those that took a break over the holiday season, in truth you haven’t missed too much. Markets did reopen in parts of Europe yesterday although unsurprisingly with the usual holiday impacted low volumes. That said it was a decent start for the most part to 2017. The Stoxx 600 kicked off the year by closing up +0.49% with all sectors ending a tad higher while the DAX (+1.02%) and the periphery (IBEX +0.71% and FTSE MIB +1.73%) also closed firmer. European Banks (+0.89%) also started the year stronger while in sovereign bond markets it was BTP’s which outperformed. Indeed 10y BTP yields were 7.3bps lower at 1.735% while 10y Bund yields edged down 1.8bps to 0.182%. The outperformance in Italy likely reflected the better than expected December manufacturing PMI yesterday with the print rising a full point to 53.2 and the highest reading since June. There were no surprises in the final revision for the data for the Euro area at 54.9 while France and Germany were also little changed at 53.5 and 55.6 respectively. Spain however also surprised to the upside after printing 0.8pts higher at 55.3 (vs. 54.6 expected).

    Two days ago we also got the official PMI’s for China for last month with the manufacturing PMI down slightly to 51.4 (vs. 51.5 expected) from 51.7 the month prior and the non-manufacturing PMI coming in at 54.5 versus 54.7 in November. This morning we’ve also had the Caixin manufacturing PMI for China which, unlike the official data last week, surprised to the upside at 51.9 (vs. 50.9 expected) from 50.9 in November. As we look across markets this morning, bourses have started the year in a fairly upbeat mode. In China the Shanghai Comp and CSI 300 are currently +0.75% and +0.82% respectively while the Hang Seng is +0.51%. The Kospi is +0.52% and the ASX +1.17%. Markets in Japan are closed for a public holiday. Elsewhere Oil is a shade higher while Gold and other precious metals are up close to +1%. US equity index futures are also pointing to a reasonable start (up around +0.35% as we type).

    Much of the remaining newsflow this morning and over the past few days revolves around other developments in China and also the tragic terrorist attack in Istanbul on New Year’s Day which follows a number of other geopolitical events in the month of December and which will do little to ease tensions. The Turkish Lira has weakened about half a percent in the last two days since that attack. With regards to the former, there are various reports out there suggesting that China is looking to tighten controls on personal FX transactions in a bid to curb money laundering. According to the FT the $50k resident quota on foreign currency buying was also reset as of January 1st. In addition to this, last week we learned that China has also expanded the currencies included in its official CFETS basket to 24 from 13. The associated statement highlighted that this change is aimed at improving the mechanism generating the RMB index and so making the basket more representative. It also means that the US Dollar’s weighting in the new basket falls to 22.4% from 26.4% and so the lower USD weight means that less USD strength translates into the basket.

    Turning over to the week ahead now. This morning in Europe we’re kicking off the New Year in France where the preliminary December CPI report will be released. We’ll also get last month’s CPI report in Germany along with unemployment data while in the UK the December manufacturing PMI is due to be released. It’s a reasonably busy start to the week in the US this afternoon with the main focus likely to be on the December ISM manufacturing print, while the final manufacturing PMI and construction spending in November is also due. Wednesday starts in Japan where the final manufacturing PMI for December is due while China will also release the MNI consumer sentiment print for last month. Over in Europe all eyes will be on the final December PMI revisions (services and composite prints) along with a first look at the data for the periphery. Euro area CPI in December will also be released along with money and credit aggregates data for the UK. In the US tomorrow the lone data release is December vehicle sales before all eyes turn to the FOMC minutes later in the evening from last month’s meeting. Turning to Thursday, Japan and China get the day started again with the remaining December PMI’s (services and composite). In the UK we’ll also get the remaining services and composite PMI’s while PPI data for the Euro area will also be released. In the US we’ll also get those final PMI’s (services and composite) along with the ADP employment change print for last month, initial jobless claims and ISM non-manufacturing for December. We close out the week on Friday in Europe with retail sales and factory orders data in Germany, trade data in France and confidence indicators for the Euro area. In the US we’ll get the November trade balance along with the all important December employment report including nonfarm payrolls. Also due out will be November factory orders and the final revisions to November durable and capital goods orders.

    Away from the data there’s also a bit of Fedspeak this week with both Evans and Lacker due to speak on Friday, while over at the ECB Mersch is also scheduled to speak on Friday. Also potentially interesting this week is a planned television interview in France on Thursday with Socialist Party nominee Manuel Valls.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-03/
     
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    Frontrunning: January 3

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Jan 3, 2017 7:40 AM

    • Stocks Gain With Commodities Amid China Optimism (BBG); Dollar, global stocks firm as 2017 trading starts in earnest (Reuters)
    • Oil hits 18-month highs as markets eye output cuts (Reuters)
    • Earnings Recovery Set to Propel Stocks Higher in 2017 (WSJ)
    • Republican-led Congress lays groundwork for Trump (Reuters)
    • Battles Await Ambitious GOP Agenda, Including Repeal of ACA (WSJ)
    • 2017 Will Be the Riskiest Year for Geopolitics Since WWII, Eurasia Group Says (BBG)
    • Trump team seeks agency records on border barriers, surveillance (Reuters)
    • Paris Wants to Lure 20,000 Bankers From London (BBG)
    • Champions of 401(k) Lament the Revolution They Started (WSJ)
    • Oil business seen in strong position as Trump tackles tax reform (Reuters)
    • Shipping Alliances Shore Up Industry, Worry Customers (WSJ)
    • China navy confirms carrier conducted drills in South China Sea (Reuters)
    • China Gets Strict on Forex Transactions to Stop Money Exiting Abroad (BBG)
    • Trump aware of 'urgency' of North Korea nuclear threat: South Korea (Reuters)
    • Trump Taps China Critic Lighthizer for U.S. Trade Representative (BBG)
    • Gunman in Istanbul nightclub attack may have trained in Syria (Reuters)
    • What We Could Learn From the Fed Minutes (BBG)
    • Solar Could Beat Coal to Become the Cheapest Power on Earth (BBG)
    • Luxury Apartment Boom Looks Set to Fizzle in 2017 (WSJ)
    • The Fallout From Madoff's Fraud Includes an Ironic Twist for Investors (BBG)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies Corp said it plans to resume rocket launches on Jan. 8, using revised operational practices developed in response to a fiery accident that occurred during routine ground preparations last fall. http://on.wsj.com/2hLP5Mb

    - Hyundai Motor Co and affiliate Kia Motors Corp are bracing for another challenging year after missing their sales targets for a second straight year on lackluster performances in China, the U.S. and other key markets. http://on.wsj.com/2hM344u

    - Twitter Inc's controversial China chief has departed after only eight months, the latest executive to leave amid a global reorganization. http://on.wsj.com/2hLW9bL

    - Landlords of upscale properties across the U.S. are bracing for rough conditions in 2017 that will likely force them to slash rents and offer deep concessions as a glut of supply brings a seven-year luxury-apartment boom to an end. http://on.wsj.com/2hLXCPb

    - The Obama administration is finalizing a study that could lead to restrictions on Chinese investment in the U.S. semiconductor sector. http://on.wsj.com/2hM1Sye

    - The "Star Wars" spinoff "Rogue One" led the box office for the third straight week, taking in an estimated $64.3 million during the New Year's weekend, according to studio estimates. http://on.wsj.com/2hLYp2C


    FT

    Financial services company Cantor Fitzgerald LP has appointed Anshu Jain, the former co-chief executive of Deutsche Bank AG, as its president, the company said in a statement on Monday.

    Britain's opposition Labour Party is on track to win fewer than 200 seats at the next general election for the first time since 1935, according to research by the Fabian Society.

    British private equity firm 3i Group Plc is considering selling lingerie retailer Agent Provocateur and has attracted the interest of sovereign wealth funds and high net-worth individuals, a person familiar with the potential sale has said.


    NYT

    - Anshu Jain, who was forced to step down from the top job at Deutsche Bank after a series of regulatory mishaps, will join the private trading firm Cantor Fitzgerald this month as group president. nyti.ms/2ixkuis

    - After the explosion in September of one of its rockets, SpaceX is now ready to get back into the business of sending payloads to space, the company announced on Monday, with its next rocket headed to orbit as soon as Sunday. In a statement, SpaceX said that an investigation had determined the likely cause: an unexpected interplay of supercold helium and oxygen with carbon fibers and aluminum. nyti.ms/2iske6h

    - F. Ross Johnson, who as chief executive of RJR Nabisco instigated an era-defining takeover struggle that was chronicled in film and a best-selling book and made him a symbol of corporate greed, died on Thursday at his home in Jupiter, Florida. He was 85. nyti.ms/2iCQrsh


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** The new independent Senate won't be afraid to make changes to Liberal legislation but that doesn't mean it will derail Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's agenda, according to the government's point man in the Red Chamber. https://tgam.ca/2hKRzFv

    ** As part of the local overdose response, the Mobile Medical Unit is offering treatment options to anyone who needs it, free of charge. https://tgam.ca/2hKTNot

    ** A Toronto-area mother of two, Alaa Al-Muhandis, has been identified as one of the 39 people killed in the early morning terrorist attack in Istanbul on New Year's Day. https://tgam.ca/2hKKNQ5

    NATIONAL POST

    ** Rose Wolfe, a former chancellor of the University of Toronto and a lifelong champion of humanitarian and Jewish causes, died Friday. She was 100 years old. http://bit.ly/2hKXkTO

    ** The iconic Canadian ball hockey rink at Kandahar Airfield, its boards adorned with faded Maple Leaf flags, has been dismantled. A dozen Canadian embassy staff, including Ambassador Ken Neufeld and a few soldiers, played a final game of shinny last week on the concrete slab in the infield of the airfield's boardwalk before U.S. army engineers helped take down the boards. http://bit.ly/2hKZlPU


    Britain

    The Times

    Shopper numbers plunged dramatically at the weekend in a sign that experts said augured badly for the new year. Visits to shopping centres were down by a half on New Year's Day compared with the same day in 2016, according to Springboard retail intelligence. http://bit.ly/2iwJgiK

    KPMG has emerged as the government's favourite accountant, earning more than half the money spent on accounting advisers from the Big Four firms in the past year. http://bit.ly/2hLwSws

    The Guardian

    The liquidators of BHS are conducting a detailed investigation into property transactions that took place during the regimes of Philip Green and Dominic Chappell, including whether the directors of the retailer breached their duties. FRP Advisory is undertaking a "massive exercise in data collation", according to one source close to the winding up of BHS. http://bit.ly/2iwKEBS

    Harrods has been accused of shortchanging its restaurant staff in the latest row over how service charges added to diners' bills are shared among workers. The union representing Harrods waiters and kitchen staff believes the Qatari owner of the upmarket London department store retains up to 75 percent of the service charge. http://bit.ly/2iwNqas

    The Telegraph

    Scottish islanders are exploring ways of loosening ties with Scotland and the U.K. following the Brexit vote including full independence, it has emerged. More than half of Orkney's councillors have forced through a motion demanding an investigation into "greater autonomy or self-determination" amid the vote to leave the European Union and a possible second independence referendum. http://bit.ly/2hLFdR2

    Thousands of new homes to help first-time buyers on to the property ladder will be built on brownfield land, Prime Minister Theresa May will announce on Tuesday, her second big housing pledge in as many days. http://bit.ly/2hLz876

    Sky News

    Len McCluskey has insisted he still backs Jeremy Corbyn, despite appearing to distance himself from the Labour leader in a newspaper interview. The Unite leader suggested in a Daily Mirror interview that if opinion polls are "still awful" by 2019 Corbyn and Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell may quit. http://bit.ly/2hLwA95

    The Independent

    Theresa May's New Year's message pledging to be mindful of both Leave and Remain voters during Brexit negotiations has been dismissed as "utterly meaningless" by leader of the Liberal Democrats, Tim Farron. http://ind.pn/2hLHAU1

    Labour is on course to retain as few as 150 MPs at the next general election as it sheds voters to all other parties, a stark new report warns. Support for Jeremy Corbyn's party could plunge as low as 20 percent at the election in 2020 based on its current poll ratings, the Fabian Society has calculated. http://ind.pn/2hLFW4x

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-03/
     
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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    MtM - Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead 01/03
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/01/emerging-market-preview-week-ahead.html

    DB - Opening Bell: 1.3.17
    http://dealbreaker.com/2017/01/opening-bell-1-3-17/

    SA - Market News Live Feed 01/03
    http://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    CWS - Morning News: January 3, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/01/morning-news-january-3-2017.html

    TRB - Hot Links: So Many Questions 01/03
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/01/03/hot-links-so-many-questions/

    RR - Active Management and Luxury Real Estate 01/03
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-03/active-management-and-luxury-real-estate

    SA - Wall Street Breakfast: What's In The Cards For 2017? 01/03
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/4033887-wall-street-breakfast-cards-2017

    MtM - Dollar-Bloc and Sterling Advance, while Euro and Yen Slip 01/03
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/01/dollar-bloc-and-sterling-advance-while.html

     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: Jan-3-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Last year precious metals and industrial metals had been shared between bulls and bears. In the first half of last year, precious metals zoomed, while in the second half of the year industrial metals and natural gas zoomed. Over the past two years, there have been very gloomy predictions on gold and silver all over the internet. None of the extreme bearish forecast actually came.
     
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    Mornings with "V" & CJ - The New Year Of Real Change (01/03/2017)
    Rogue Money



    Streamed live 2 hours ago
     
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    Risk On: 2017 Stock Rally Continues As Global Inflation Accelerates

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Jan 4, 2017 6:42 AM


    Following another day of upbeat economic data, with growing signs that inflation on both sides of the Atlantic is accelerating, investors rediscovered their faith in the Trumpflation rally, pushing global stocks and US equity futures higher, fuelling a second day of 2017 equity gains ahead of today's release of the Fed's December minutes.

    The dollar slumped and the euro moved further above $1.04 after data showed French consumer confidence hit its highest for nine years and businesses across the euro zone ended 2016 by ramping up activity at the fastest pace for five-and-a-half years. This followed similarly upbeat reports this week on U.S., UK, Chinese and Japanese business activity.

    “The year has started with a stream of good macro stories which has justified a risk on position with investors,” Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments told Bloomberg. He favors stocks and bonds of developed countries poised to benefit from a reflating U.S. economy that will boost the dollar over emerging markets.

    The Eurozone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 54.4 in December from 53.9 in November, IHS Markit said on Wednesday. That’s the highest in 67 months and above a Dec. 15 estimate. Strength in both the manufacturing and service sectors was due in part to a weaker euro, London-based Markit said in a statement. Economic expansion was signaled across the “big-four” nations, with Spain leading the way, followed closely by Germany.

    [​IMG]

    Figures also showed that euro zone December inflation hit its highest since September 2013, which helped support a rise in oil, commodity prices and bond yields. Consumer prices rose 1.1% from a year earlier, following a 0.6% gain in November, according to Eurostat on Wednesday. That’s above a median forecast of 1 percent in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, increased to 0.9 percent last month.

    [​IMG]

    The data follow the ECB’s decision to prolong quantitative easing to guarantee a sustained pickup in inflation in a year that could see economies hit by political uncertainty. Surprisingly strong accelerations of headline rates in Germany and Spain, mainly driven by a surge in the cost of oil, may strengthen the central bank’s focus on weakness in underlying price pressures as it assesses policy in coming months.

    The unexpectedly strong acceleration in both regional and national inflation rates follows a 12.6 percent surge in Brent crude last month. ECB President Mario Draghi said in December that price growth remained weak, even as Executive Board member Benoit Coeure told Boersen-Zeitung last week that inflation could face upside risks. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, one of the ECB’s most hawkish officials, has argued in favor of a swift unwinding of stimulus once price growth allows, while Ifo President Clemens Fuest said in an interview published Tuesday the central bank may want to consider ending asset purchases as early as March.

    "This latest data could mark the beginning of the end to ECB's bond-buying program and expansive monetary policy as it edges closer to their inflation target of two percent," Xtrade's Chief Market Analyst, Paul Sirani, said.

    Looking at global stocks, the MSCI All-Country World Index rose for a second day to trade 0.3 percent higher, and its index of major Asian shares excluding Japan rose for a seventh consecutive day, gaining 0.3%.

    In Europe, The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed, dragged down by declines on retailers. One of the biggest movers on major European bourses was UK retailer Next. Its shares fell as much as 14 percent after cutting its annual profit forecast and forecasting a difficult year ahead. The stock has lost nearly 40 percent over the past year.

    Japan’s Topix index and Nikkei 225 Stock Average both gained at least 2.4 percent, the best first day of trading since 2013.

    U.S. futures pointed to a higher opening of between 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent on Wall Street, priming the Dow Jones for another test of the 20,000-point mark.

    In currencies, the potential for further U.S. rate hikes this year ensured profit-taking on the dollar's run on Tuesday was limited to just 0.15 percent against a basket of currencies. The dollar's strength in Asian trading helped Japan's exporter-heavy stock market rally toward its biggest daily increase for almost two months.

    The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.0435, and the dollar gave up earlier gains against the yen to trade little changed at 117.75 yen. Euro zone inflation expectations are moving closer to the European Central Bank's target of just below 2 percent, offering some welcome relief to ECB policymakers who for years have struggled to lift growth and inflation.

    In rates, U.S. Treasury notes due in 2026 edged lower, with the yield rising one basis point to 2.457 percent. German and UK yields were flat at 0.26 percent and 1.32 percent, respectively. Germany's 10-year yield had hit a two-week high of 0.29 percent on Tuesday. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of credit-default swaps on investment-grade companies declined one basis point to 69 basis points. A gauge of swaps on high-yield companies fell two basis points to 280 basis points, the lowest since July 2015.

    Investors will now turn their attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting last month when it raised rates.

    "What is important is the Fed's view on inflation, especially after the (strong) ISM manufacturing survey data yesterday," said Naeem Aslam, analyst at Think Markets. "Improvement in input prices is going to have an impact on final products which would, in turn, move the scale on inflation, upon which the Fed can no longer be reticent," he said.

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2256
    • Stoxx 600 down less than 0.1% to 366
    • FTSE 100 down less than 0.1% to 7177
    • DAX down 0.1% to 11572
    • German 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 0.27%
    • Italian 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.85%
    • Spanish 10Yr yield down 1bp to 1.41%
    • S&P GSCI Index up 0.4% to 392.2
    • MSCI Asia Pacific up 1.3% to 137
    • Nikkei 225 up 2.5% to 19594
    • Hang Seng down less than 0.1% to 22134
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3159
    • S&P/ASX 200 up less than 0.1% to 5736
    • US 10-yr yield up 1bp to 2.46%
    • Dollar Index down 0.19% to 103.01
    • WTI Crude futures up 0.7% to $52.71
    • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $55.85
    • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,165
    • Silver spot up 0.7% to $16.40
    Top Global News
    • Ford, Toyota Form Telematics Bloc to Stymie Google and Apple: Mazda, PSA, Fuji and Suzuki join to ensure connectivity choice
    • J&J Judge Slashes $1 Billion Verdict Over Pinnacle Hip Implants: Judge found punitive-damage award was constitutionally flawed
    • Tesla Deliveries Miss Forecasts Again on Production Delays: Model S maker cites production challenges related to Autopilot
    • Bloomberg’s Winning Economic Forecasters Lay Out 2017 Calls: Most-accurate predictors of inflation, unemployment and growth explain their outlook for this year
    • Trump Tariff on GM Would Violate NAFTA. That May Not Stop Him: U.S. trade deal with Mexico and Canada forbids tariffsQualcomm’s Newest Smartphone Chip Aimed at PC Breakthrough: Snapdragon 835 will enable thinner handset with larger battery
    • Blackstone Said to Near Deal to Buy Sesac: WSJ reports company in advanced talks to buy Sesac, citing unidentified people familiar.
      Trump Says His Briefing on ‘So-Called’ Russia Hacking Is Delayed
    • China Said to Consider Options to Back Yuan, Curb Outflows
    • Qualcomm’s Newest Smartphone Chip Aimed at PC Breakthrough
    • Nikkei’s Financial Times Buys GIS Planning to Expand Services
    • Manhattan Home Prices Fall as Sellers Concede to Slowing Market
    In Asia, equity markets traded mostly positive following gains on Wall Street, where strong data underpinned sentiment despite a slump in oil markets. Nikkei 225 (+2.5%) outperformed with gains of over 2.0% as the index played catch-up to yesterday's advances on return from holiday with JPY weakness also benefiting exporters. Furthermore, the index also benefited from firm domestic manufacturing PMI data and rhetoric from PM Abe that he will continue to make the economy a priority and there will be no snap election. ASX 200 (+0.1%) stalled at 19-month highs, with weakness in real estate capping gains in the index. Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) and Hang Seng (-0.1%) traded indecisive with cautiousness seen after another weak liquidity operation by the PBoC which effectively drained CNY 140bIn in liquidity today, while HSBC shares outperformed after the bank increased its 3-month CNH deposit rate in Hong Kong to 2.85%. 10yr JGBs traded lower despite a JPY 1.12tIn bond buying operation by BoJ as participants sought riskier assets on return to the market, while the yield curve steepened amid underperformance in the super-long end.

    Top Asian News
    • China Said to Consider Options to Back Yuan, Curb Outflows: Authorites may order state-owned firms to sell dollars
    • India Sets Date for Polls Seen as Referendum on Modi’s Note Ban: Country’s most populous state heads to polls from Feb. 11
    • KFC’s Return to Malaysian Bourse Heralds Rebound in Deal Volumes: Fundraising from Malaysian IPOs is poised to rebound from the lowest in 16 years
    • Tencent Shares Losing $35 Billion Shows Depth of China Gloom: Technology giant has tumbled 13% from September record
    • Indonesia Temporarily Suspends All Military Ties With Australia: Move threatens to undermine improved relations between sides
    European bourses have failed to remain afloat despite the spate of better than expected Eurozone PMI readings support by Germany and France. While the FTSE 100 continues to hover around record highs, however the index has been dragged lower by Next (-11%) after the company cut their profit guidance. Elsewhere, financials continue their strong start to the year with major financial names among the notable outperformers in Europe.

    European Eco Data
    • (FR) Dec. Consumer Confidence 99, est. 99
    • (SP) Dec. Unemployment MoM Net (’000s) 86.8, est. -50
    • (SP) Dec. Markit Services PMI 55.5, 54.7 est.
    • (SP) Dec. Markit Composite PMI 55.5, est. 55
    • (IT) Dec. Markit/ADACI Services PMI 52.3, est. 52.6
    • (IT) Dec. Markit/ADACI Composite PMI 52.9, est. 53
    • (FR) Dec. Markit Services PMI 52.9, est. 52.6
    • (FR) Dec. Markit Composite PMI 53.1, est. 52.8
    • (EC) Dec. Markit Services PMI 53.7, est. 53.1
    • (EC) Dec. Markit Composite PMI 54.4, est. 53.9
    • (UK) Dec. Markit/CIPS Construction PMI 54.2, est. 52.5
    • (EC) Dec. CPI Estimate YoY 1.1%, est. 1%
    • (EC) Dec. CPI Core YoY 0.9%, est. 0.8%
    • (IT) Dec. CPI EU Harmonized MoM 0.4%, est. 0.2%
    • (IT) Dec. CPI EU Harmonized YoY 0.5%, est. 0.3%
    Top European News
    • Hard Brexit Looms Large With Resignation of U.K.’s EU Envoy: Rogers says negotiating expertise ‘in short supply’ in London
    • Euro-Area Inflation Outpaces Expectations as Oil Prices Surge: Consumer prices rise 1.1%, core inflation increases to 0.9%
    • CEZ Sees No Impact on 2017 Earnings From Czech Currency Cap Exit: Czech central bank plan to exit its currency-cap regime after 1Q will have “practically no impact” on CEZ’s 2017 earnings, CFO Martin Novak says
    • Swedish Six-Hour Workday Runs Into Trouble: It’s Too Costly: Swedes looking forward to a six-hour workday just got some bad news: the costs outweigh the benefits.
    In currencies, the U.S. Dollar Index was 0.3 percent lower after touching its highest level since at least 2005. Across FX markets, the USD index has continued to run out of steam against its major counterparts with the US 10yr yield below 2.5% and USD/JPY moving further away from 118.00. Elsewhere, AUD/USD hovers at intra-day highs having tripped stops through 0.7250 while near term resistance resides at 0.7280. EUR/GBP has failed to find any firm direction with price action likely to be magnetised around 0.8500 amid a large vanilla option expiry worth lbln. Additionally, Eurozone inflation continued its upward momentum in December, accelerating at the fastest pace since 2013, however limited reaction had been observed given that the figures were largely in-line with consensus. The rand strengthened 1.4 percent as of 10:40 a.m. in London while the ruble added 0.3 percent in its second day of advances. Citigroup strategists said in a Jan. 3 note to clients that “Russia and South Africa could be outperformers” in developing Europe, “but it might still be a bumpy ride for EMFX as the relatively hawkish FOMC signal from mid-December permeates.”

    In commodities, crude oil futures climbed as much as 1.2 percent in New York after tumbling 2.6 percent Tuesday, before returning to broadly unchanged. Dampened sentiment has been due to concerns surrounding cooperation among other oil producing nations, while some note that Libya and Nigeria who are exempt from cuts have already made progress on increasing production. Elsewhere, Gold continues to remain in modest positive territory with prices in close proximity to 3-week highs while Copper rebounded of its worst levels overnight amid a mostly positive risk tone in the Asia-Pacific region.

    US Event Calendar
    • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Dec. 30
    • 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
    • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes, Dec. 14
    • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories
    * * *

    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    It hasn’t taken long for markets to dust off the holiday cobwebs and start acclimatizing to 2017. The good news is that unlike the freefall sparked by China’s equity markets this time last year, the mood in 2017 is so far so good with some decent data out of the manufacturing sector helping to set the early pace.

    Indeed after the generally positive data in Europe on Monday, the UK manufacturing PMI was yesterday reported as surging to 56.1 in December (vs. 53.3 expected) from 53.6 and to the highest in two and a half years. In the afternoon we then learned that the ISM manufacturing reading in the US had risen to 54.7 in December (vs. 53.8 expected) and the highest since December 2014. The details revealed that the new orders component surged to 60.2 from 53.0 in the month prior too which is particularly noteworthy in light of the recent strength for the US Dollar. To put in perspective this component printed at 48.8 in December 2015. Meanwhile the final manufacturing PMI for the US last month was revised up a tad to 54.3 (from 54.2). It’s worth noting that Greece is the only developed nation with a manufacturing PMI below 50 but even that reading (49.3) is still at a four-month high.

    Equity markets were generally firmer across the board yesterday as a result with the Stoxx 600 closing +0.70% and the S&P 500 kicking off 2017 with a +0.85% gain. European Banks (+2.84%) have also started the year in style with the catalyst yesterday appearing to be the news that the Basel Committee had postponed a meeting due for this weekend to consider a contentious reforms package, fuelling expectations that some of the proposals could potentially be watered down. Meanwhile the US auto sector was also in focus after Ford announced that they were to scrap plans for a $1.6bn expansion in Mexico and instead create new jobs in Michigan following proposals by President-elect Trump to slap tariffs on foreign made vehicles. That news also came as Trump turned to social media to criticize General Motors for production of vehicles in Mexico. The Peso (-1.82%) was a notable underperformer in FX as a result.

    If that wasn’t enough then a complete reversal for Oil also added another dimension to yesterday’s session. WTI Oil peaked at $55.24/bbl in the early morning, or over 2% higher, before then plummeting some 5% from those early highs to close -2.59% on the day at $52.33/bbl. Natural Gas also tumbled -10.66% for the biggest one-day decline since February 2014. While forecasts for milder weather in the US this month were attributed to the decline for the latter, there didn’t appear to be an obvious catalyst for the sharp swing in Oil aside from the continued strength for the Greenback.

    Meanwhile the rates market was an interesting microcosm of the volatility that we expect this year. Yields initially surged in Europe supported by the early gains for Oil and then later on by the bumper inflation report in Germany where headline CPI jumped +1.0% mom in December (vs. 0.6% expected) and so helping the YoY rate to hit +1.7% from +0.7% in November and the highest since July 2013. The wider Euro area CPI report is due today and a similar jump, assuming it can be maintained, will surely give the ECB some food for thought. Anyway the data helped 10y Bund yields jump +7.7bps to 0.258% while yields in the periphery were anywhere from +9.0bps to +20.8bps higher. The Treasury market opened in similar fashion with that US data also helping matters and 10y Treasury yields peaked at 2.516% (after opening at 2.445%) before the energy complex went into reverse. Treasury yields completely unwound that move higher and finished unchanged by the closing bell.

    A reminder that today we’ll also get the FOMC minutes from that December meeting where we’re expecting the tone to reflect the moderately more hawkish nature of the statement. Ahead of this sentiment has remained fairly buoyant in the Asia session this morning where bourses in Japan in particular have reopened in style. The Nikkei and Topix have surged +2.14% and +2.17% respectively with financials leading the way while there are also gains in China with the Shanghai Comp +0.39% and CSI 300 +0.42%. The Kospi and ASX are little changed along with the Hang Seng while credit indices are generally tighter in Asia Pac. US equity index futures are also up modestly while Oil has rebounded about half a percent.

    Moving on. Yesterday we got the latest ECB CSPP breakdown as of the end of December. The numbers took on added interest with the addition of the primary and secondary market split too. With regards to holdings, the ECB announced total holdings of €51.07bn which works out as net purchases settled during the month of €3.89bn, albeit with an unsurprising slowdown into year end. In terms of the split, of the total holdings currently, €6.93bn or 13.6% were made in the primary market and €44.14bn or 86.4% were made in the secondary market. Interestingly while the overall primary market purchases (in percentage terms) were ramped up from June to October, they have held relatively steady over the months of November and December although this may also reflect the slowdown in the new issue market into the end of the year.

    Meanwhile there were some interesting developments on the Brexit front in the UK yesterday too with the announcement that Britain’s ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, had unexpectedly resigned just a couple of months out from the UK’s formal resignation from the EU and prior to the end of his official tenure in October. Various reports suggested that Rogers was one of most experienced EU negotiators and was heavily criticized last year by Conservative eurosceptics. His resignation letter – obtained by the FT - stated that ‘serious multilateral negotiating experience is in short supply’ and that ‘we do not yet know what the government will set as negotiating objectives for the UK’s relationship with the EU after exit’. No obvious reason was provided for his early resignation although Rogers did confirm that it would make more sense to have a team in place which see’s Britain through the entire Brexit process. The news could come as a bit of a blow to the ‘Soft’ Brexit camp though and clearly comes at a crucial time in talks so it’ll be interesting to see if there is any further fallout following this announcement.

    Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’ll get the remaining December PMI’s (services and composite prints) including the final revisions for the Euro area, Germany and France as well as a first look at the data for the periphery. Also due out this morning is the CPI report for the Euro area where headline inflation is expected to have ticked up to +1.0% yoy from +0.6%. The UK will also release the November money and credit aggregates data while in France we’ll get the latest consumer confidence print. Over in the US this afternoon the lone data release is the December vehicle sales data while later on this evening we’ll get the FOMC minutes from the December meeting.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-04/
     
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    Frontrunning: January 4

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Jan 4, 2017 7:33 AM

    • Trump Tariff on GM Would Violate NAFTA. That May Not Stop Him (BBG)
    • Obama Tries to Save Parts of Health Law Amid GOP Attack (WSJ)
    • Trump Puts Auto Makers, Trade Policy in Spotlight (WSJ)
    • British consumers borrow at fastest rate in 11 years as inflation threat rises (Reuters)
    • Investment banking fees fall 7 percent in 2016 dragged down by equity raisings (Reuters)
    • Manhattan Home Prices Are Tumbling Down (BBG)
    • Iraqi forces press gains against Islamic State in eastern Mosul (Reuters)
    • Turkey Detains Five Islamic State Suspects Linked to Nightclub Attack (BBG)
    • Israeli soldier convicted of manslaughter in killing of immobile Palestinian assailant (Reuters)
    • Repealing Obamacare Could be Trump's First Lesson in the Glacial Pace of Congress (BBG)
    • No One Questioned This Hedge Fund’s Madoff-Like Returns (BBG)
    • Yuan Surges as China Seeks New Tools to Block Outflows (BBG)
    • French Presidential Candidate, Embracing His Catholicism, Challenges Secular Tradition (WSJ)
    • Exxon Mobil, Tillerson agree to cut all ties (Reuters)
    • U.S. banks gear up to fight Dodd-Frank Act's Volcker rule (Reuters)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Ford Motor Co scrapped a plan to build a $1.6 billion small-car factory in Mexico that Donald Trump had slammed, a move announced just hours after the President-elect knocked General Motors Co on Twitter for importing compact cars from Mexico to sell in the U.S. http://on.wsj.com/2hPy97k

    - Exxon Mobil Corp has awarded former Chief Executive Rex Tillerson a $180 million retirement package as the company moves to break financial ties with President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for secretary of state. http://on.wsj.com/2hPI5xC

    - Qualcomm Inc views its latest smartphone chip as a "connected device" chip, a bid to outdistance rivals such as Intel Corp in the burgeoning market for gadgets and equipment with computing and communications capabilities built in. http://on.wsj.com/2hPNBR1

    - Tesla Motors Inc's fourth-quarter sales rose 27 percent - but not enough for the Silicon Valley auto maker to reach its goal of delivering at least 80,000 vehicles in 2016. http://on.wsj.com/2hPG70h

    - Lawyers representing owners of tainted Volkswagen diesel-powered cars in Germany filed the first lawsuit seeking consumer compensation for damages from the car maker's diesel scandal in a test case that could turn up pressure on it to compensate millions of European customers. http://on.wsj.com/2hPGKqB

    - Intel Corp is acquiring a 15 percent stake in Here International B.V. for an undisclosed sum, joining the digital mapmaker's core shareholders BMW AG, Daimler AG and Volkswagen AG's Audi unit in developing navigation technology for self-driving cars. http://on.wsj.com/2hPznQi

    - Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly is leaving to join NBC News, taking on a variety of roles for the broadcast network after rising to prominence over the course of more than a dozen years at the cable news juggernaut. http://on.wsj.com/2hPG7xj

    FT

    British Airways cabin crew plan to hold a 48-hour strike starting on Jan. 10, after suspending previous plans to walk out over Christmas, trade union Unite said on Tuesday.

    Britain's ambassador to the European Union, who sometimes clashed with London over its approach to Europe, abruptly resigned less than three months before Prime Minister Theresa May is due to trigger formal Brexit negotiations.

    Britain's exit from the European Union would adversely affect UK agriculture with the loss of income from the EU in the form of Common Agricultural Policy payments, uncertainty over the scope of new trade deals, and possibly stiffer trading competition from larger economies with lower animal welfare and food safety standards, according to a report published on Wednesday by the Environmental Audit Committee.

    NYT

    - Timothy G. Massad, the top United States derivatives regulator, said on Tuesday that he would step down as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission when Donald Trump becomes president on Jan. 20. http://nyti.ms/2iGCV6O

    - Euronext NV said on Tuesday that it had offered to buy the French arm of the London Stock Exchange Group Plc's majority-owned clearing business, as the British company looks to win regulatory approval for a merger with Deutsche Boerse. http://nyti.ms/2iGDXA1

    - Ford Motor Co said on Tuesday that it would scrap plans to build a small-car assembly plant in Mexico that President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized. Trump also threatened to impose tariffs on cars made in Mexico by General Motors Co. http://nyti.ms/2hPJvbA

    - Anthony Atkinson, an acclaimed British economist who pioneered the study of changes in the distribution of wealth and income, allowing for a better understanding of poverty and inequality, died on Sunday in Oxford, England. He was 72. http://nyti.ms/2hOpn4E


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** Finance and health ministers in the provinces and territories that have refused the federal government's offer on health-care funding are asking for a meeting between premiers and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to put an end to the impasse. https://tgam.ca/2hPByyr

    ** Statements by U.S. transition officials and tweets by the President-elect Tuesday are bringing into question the future of jobs and exports from Canada's auto industry, as Donald Trump warns that U.S. companies should not be allowed to sell internationally manufactured cars in the U.S. market without penalty. https://tgam.ca/2hPyEK0

    ** More than 300 city employees in Vancouver have been commandeered from other jobs to help with salting and sanding roads, as well as picking up garbage and ticketing people for failing to shovel sidewalks, as the region enters its fourth week of an unusually cold and snowy winter. https://tgam.ca/2hPm1yo

    NATIONAL POST

    ** The British Columbia government's newly unveiled "Home Owner Mortgage and Equity Partnership Program" will be giving out loans to first-time homebuyers who won't have to make payments or incur interest for the first five years after buying (then, the interest starts at the buyer's bank mortgage rate). http://bit.ly/2hPndC2

    ** TCL Communication, the Chinese company that manufactured the latest two devices for the former smartphone titan based in Waterloo, Ontario, released a teaser video for the next BlackBerry device on Twitter late Monday night. The four-second video zooms in on the physical QWERTY keyboard. http://bit.ly/2hPscTf

    ** City officials in Grande Prairie were justified in refusing an anti-abortion group's advertising campaign for public buses because the ad was likely "to cause psychological harm" to women who've had or are considering having abortions, an Alberta judge has ruled. http://bit.ly/2hPCVNk


    Britain

    Euronext, which operates exchanges in Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam and Lisbon, has offered to buy the French clearing arm of LCH.Clearnet from the London Stock Exchange for 510 million euros. http://bit.ly/2iMT6g8

    Belgian company TVH Group NV on Tuesday raised its offer for Britain's Lavendon Group Plc to 444 million pounds, slightly pipping an offer from French rival Loxam SAS. http://bit.ly/2iMUUWv

    The Guardian

    Richard Cousins, the chief executive of the catering group Compass, has abruptly left his position as senior independent director of Tesco just days before Britain's biggest retailer unveils its Christmas trading figures. http://bit.ly/2iMSxTp

    A leading group of central bankers was due to meet on Jan. 8 to agree changes that could have forced some banks, largely in Europe, to hold more capital, but it was announced on Tuesday that the meeting had been called off. http://bit.ly/2iMRHX0

    The Telegraph

    Aberdeen Asset Management has led the call for other City investors to vote against Sports Direct's embattled chairman Keith Hellawell's re-election this week. http://bit.ly/2hP4nQe

    Lulu Guinness, the British accessories brand best known for its lip-shaped handbags, has narrowed its losses after shutting unprofitable London shops and expanding overseas. http://bit.ly/2iMW6cn

    Sky News

    British Airways cabin crew plan to stage a 48-hour strike after rejecting an offer aimed at resolving a pay dispute. http://bit.ly/2iMUv6q

    British clothing retailer Next is expected to provide a formal profit warning for its 2017 financial year in its fourth-quarter trading update on Wednesday. http://bit.ly/2iMVpzQ

    The Independent

    The UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index hit 56.1 in December, up from 53.4 in November, reflecting the country's strongest manufacturing rate in 2-1/2 years. http://ind.pn/2iMKpCx

    Paris could lure as many as 20,000 workers from Britain's finance industry with the exodus potentially starting within weeks as the UK begins its withdrawal from the European Union, according to Europlace, the French capital's lobby group. http://ind.pn/2iMSB5V

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-04/frontrunning-january-4
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: Jan-4-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Last year it was proved that silver prices were heavily manipulated by a combination of very large and too big to fail banks. Banks are used to court cases and pay penalties. Yet they end up with massive profit on manipulation of any financial instrument. Bank rig prices when either trading volumes are low or there is lack of large retail investment or fundamentals are weak.


    Gold and Silver Market Morning: Jan 4 2017 - Gold and Silver see a shift in sentiment!
    By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch
    With a weaker dollar today, gold has jumped in the dollar but even more so in the euro. But what is remarkable is that there was a huge sale of gold from the SPDR gold ETF, which did not move the gold price down. Instead the gold price rose and more so than appeared justified by the fall in the dollar. We can attribute this to the ongoing pull of Chinese prices and demand in Shanghai. The fact that gold prices went higher in London tells us that the gold sold from the SPDR gold ETF was not sold into London this morning, indicating it is on its way to Shanghai.
     
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    Lior Gantz-Derivative War Could Bring Down Global Economy
    Greg Hunter



    Published on Jan 3, 2017
    Wealth manager Lior Gantz warns of a possible derivative war between top bankers that could bring the global economy down. Gantz contends, “Once somebody begins to change the way they look at derivatives and start using derivatives as a weapon . . . they’re going to fight between each other. These are nasty people that all they care about is what they make in cold hard cash to take home. They really could start a derivative war that would not be beneficial for anyone. It would be more violent than an orchestrated derivative explosion that I really don’t think is possible. The derivative market is so big that it is out of the control of anybody.”

    Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Lior Gantz, President of Wealth Research Group.

    All links can be found in the “After the Interview” section on USAWatchdog.com: http://usawatchdog.com/grave-danger-e...
     
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    Trump Is Great For Real Estate! | Jason Hartman
    SilverDoctors



    Published on Jan 4, 2017
    https://sdbullion.com/
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious...

    Jason Hartman has a unique perspective on the coming Trump Administration. Because Trump is a real estate mogul and has vowed to eliminate the hated Dodd Frank law, Jason believes this will free-up hundreds of billions in funds that have been sitting on the sidelines just waiting for an excuse to be invested in real estate. Dodd-Frank kept a huge number of investors from putting money into the market and now they'll all come rushing into it. Jason believes it's going to be yuuuuge!
     
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    Mornings with "V" & CJ - Not Out Of The Woods (01/04/2017)
    Rogue Money



    Streamed live 2 hours ago
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain Again
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
    Gold gained $8.25 to $1167.75 by a little after 8AM EST before it chopped back lower at times, but it still ended with a gain of 0.34%. Silver rose to as high as $16.522 and ended with a gain of 0.86%.
     
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    Global Stocks Rise To 1.5 Year High After Chinese Intervention Halts Dollar Rally

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Jan 5, 2017 6:51 AM

    Asian stocks rose, led by Hong Kong, while European shares and U.S. equity-index futures are little changed. Euro, yen climb as the dollar posted an unexpected loss following some serious fireworks out of China, which intervened in funding market to crush offshore Yuan shorts.

    Top news stories include Macy’s and Kohl’s cutting their outlook after weak holiday season, Deutsche Bank exploring lending money to PE firms buying distressed loans, Apple planning to invest $1b in SoftBank’s new technology fund.

    Declines in the USD outweighed major peers in the past week as traders interpreted minutes from the last Fed meeting to indicate a slower path to interest-rate increases, boosting demand for bonds and assets of developing nations. The offshore yuan surged the most on record after the government encouraged companies to stock up on the currency before the week of lunar New Year celebrations.

    [​IMG]

    Gold climbed to the highest in a month.

    As Bloomberg notes, the growing backlash against the dollar coincides with more-sober outlooks on whether President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to boost fiscal spending will achieve rapid reflation. The Fed reiterated that a “gradual” pace of rate hikes over the coming years would likely remain appropriate, damping speculation officials will step in to counter inflation with higher rates. Stocks have rallied with the dollar, while Treasuries have plunged since Trump’s election.

    While the Dow continues to flirt with 20,000, world stocks hit their highest level since mid-2015 on Thursday after strong Chinese data added to the optimism about global growth and inflation that has been driving markets since the start of the new year. The MSCI world equity index was up 0.4% at one stage to hit its highest level since July 2015. At that level it was up over 1.5 percent for the year so far. The index was pushed up by Asian shares, which rose for the eighth consecutive day on Thursday .

    Growth in China's services sector accelerated to a 17-month high in December, a private sector survey showed, adding to upbeat factory and service sector surveys out of the United States, Europe and Asia released this week.

    In addition, minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's December meeting showed that many of the central bank's policy makers are expecting a pick-up in economic growth and inflation in the world's biggest economy as a result of fiscal, regulatory or other policies, although most expressed concern that the pace of Trump fiscal stimuli could end up overpowering the economy, and pushing inflation (and the dollar) too high.

    "Recent economic data is pretty good so markets are in risk-on mode overall," said Yukio Ishizuki, currency strategist at Daiwa Securities. "But U.S. bond yields are being capped so the dollar is losing the driver behind its rally."

    Stocks and bond yields have been rising ever since the election of Republican Donald Trump as U.S. president on expectations that fiscal stimulus will boost growth and inflation. Trump's inauguration takes place on Jan. 20. "The FOMC's minutes to its Dec meeting released post yesterday's European close could best be characterized as perhaps tilted toward the hawkish side but tempered by a heavy dose of uncertainty," said Rabobank strategist Richard McGuire. "All the policymakers emphasized the uncertainty of the outlook, reminding investors that the outlook is more nuanced than the market seems to think," he said.

    With just two weeks to go before Trump takes over, investors and policymakers are waiting to see if his actions match his rhetoric and if his policies will be approved by Republican lawmakers. The dollar extended its losses on Thursday, falling 0.42% against a basket of six major currencies - though still near the 14-year high hit on Tuesday - following losses against the Chinese yuan, which soared after Beijing stepped into both its onshore and offshore yuan markets to shore up the faltering yuan for a second day on Wednesday, sparking speculation that it wants a firm grip on the currency ahead of Trump's inauguration.

    “In the past two months it’s really been the U.S. versus the rest of the world,” said Simon Quijano-Evans, a strategist at Legal & General Group Plc in London. “Maybe there will be some wind taken out of the sails. As we move towards the end of January and the lunar new year holidays, the Chinese authorities are being overly cautious to prevent a rout.”

    Maybe, but not today as the DJIA is about to try once again to cross the long-awaited 20,000 barrier.

    * * *

    Markets Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures down less than 0.1% to 2264
    • Stoxx 600 down less than 0.1% to 365
    • FTSE 100 down less than 0.1% to 7186
    • DAX down 0.2% to 11560
    • German 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 0.28%
    • Italian 10Yr yield up 4bps to 1.91%
    • Spanish 10Yr yield up 5bps to 1.48%
    • S&P GSCI Index down less than 0.1% to 396
    • MSCI Asia Pacific up 1% to 138
    • Nikkei 225 down 0.4% to 19521
    • Hang Seng up 1.5% to 22457
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3165
    • S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5753
    • US 10-yr yield down less than 1bp to 2.43%
    • Dollar Index down 0.42% to 102.27
    • WTI Crude futures down less than 0.1% to $53.25
    • Brent Futures down less than 0.1% to $56.41
    • Gold spot up 0.8% to $1,173
    • Silver spot up 1% to $16.60
    Global Headline News
    • Macy’s Declines After Reducing Outlook, Moving to Cut 6,200 Jobs: Holiday sales came in at low end of company’s projections
    • Kohl’s Tumbles After Cutting Its Fiscal 2016 Profit Forecast: ‘Sales were volatile throughout the holiday season,’ CEO says
    • Deutsche Bank Said to Eye Private Equity Help in Settlement: Bank looking to make loans to PE funds buying distressed loans
    • Apple to Invest $1 Billion in SoftBank Fund to Support Tech: Qualcomm says it also will invest undisclosed amount in fund
    • VW Ordered to Face Investor Suit in U.S. Over Diesel Cheating: Ex-Chairman Winterkorn also loses bid to toss shareholder case
    • Barclays Flags ‘Black Swan Threats’ to Commodities This Year: There is ‘a high likelihood of disruption risk,’ bank says
    • Amazon and Forever 21 Said to Mull Bidding for American Apparel: Troubled retailer filed for second bankruptcy in November
    Looking at Asian markets, stocks here traded mostly higher following the upbeat lead from Wall Street where all 3 major indices closed positive with the consumer discretionary sector underpinned by strong auto sales and the DJIA finished within 60 points of the 20,000 level. ASX 200 (+0.3%) was supported by miners and energy names after a pullback in USD buoyed the commodities complex, while Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) was dampened by a firmer JPY and as the index took a breather from yesterday's stellar gains. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.5%) outperformed following encouraging Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMIs, although the Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) lagged amid continuing liquidity concerns and surges in money market rates after the PBoC only conducted a paltry CNY 10bIn open market operation today. Finally, 10-yr JGBs were relatively flat with minimal gains seen amid a slightly cautious tone in Japan, while today's 10yr JGB auction later also failed to spur demand with the b/c and lowest accepted prices weaker than prior.

    Top Asian News
    • Bears Scramble for Yuan as China Chokes Flows, Aids Currency: Offshore yuan set for biggest two-day gain on record
    • Chinese Media Say ‘Big Sticks’ Await Trump If He Seeks Trade War: The Communist Party’s Global Times newspaper writes in an editorial Thursday
    • Philippines’ Duterte Open to Joint Maritime Drills With Russia: Russian ships could exacerbate tensions in South China Sea
    • Xiaomi’s India Sales Pass $1 Billion as Chinese Brands Hold Sway: Shipments grow by almost 150% in 2016
    • JPMorgan Lashing by Indonesia Signals Global Threat to Analysts: More governments are seeking to stifle negative market views
    European equities rebounded from some early downside, into rose into mid-morning trade relatively flat (Euro Stoxx 50: +0.1%), with the FTSE 100 reaching fresh record highs and printing above 7200 for the first time. The FTSE 100 benefitted from GBP softness, with material names among the best performers while Homebuilders also led the way higher after Persimmon (+4.8%) reported earnings pre-market. In a similar fashion to equity markets, fixed income has seen the entirety of the opening moves retraced, with Bunds opening around the 163.50 before closing the opening gap to trade around 163.20. Of note, today we are looking out for the potential pricing of the French 50Y, while participants will also be keeping an eye on the quantity of corporate issuance, given the significant slate so far this week. Finally, Italian yields remain in focus with the short end of curve underperforming significantly while the GE/IT 10Y spread back above 160bps.

    Top European News
    • U.K. Economy Maintains Solid Growth Momentum as Services Surge: Markit surveys point to 0.5% quarterly economic growth
    • Lansdowne’s $9 Billion Hedge Fund Suffers First Loss Since 2012: Lansdowne’s main hedge fund lost almost 15% in 2016
    • Ericsson Deepens Cisco Tie-Up to Combine Wi-Fi, Mobile Networks: Partnership to broaden Swedish network builder’s offering
    In currencies, the offshore yuan surged 0.6 percent to 6.8913 per dollar as of 11:25 a.m. in London after surging 1.4 percent Wednesday, putting it on track for a record two-day gain. The Bloomberg Dollar Index extended losses, declining 0.2 percent, after touching its highest level since its 2004 inception 4.5 percent since Nov. 9. It fell against The euro was little changed at $1.0490. Overall, it has been a busy session for FX, with the USD finally seeing a little more flexibility after the strong post US election gains seen. In USD/JPY, the pair dropped as low as 115.60, before rebounding 100 pipe higher. Yesterday's FOMC minutes added to the Dollar pullback, which was largely a function of over-extended levels, but with some Fed members incorporating Trump's expansionary policy intentions into their forecasts and rate outlook (accordingly), cause for some 'uncertainty' to be re-factored into the USD has since taken place. EUR/USD has pushed back through 1.0500 as a result, and with German and EU inflation rises also bolstering. Firmer commodity prices are helping to lift the related FX pairs, with AUD pushing up to fresh highs around .7325-30. NZD has been dragged higher accordingly as we tipped .7000 here also. CAD has been leading the way however, outpacing Oil price gains over the past week or so and reinforcing the resistance seen ahead of 1.3600.

    In commodities, crude slipped 0.4% to $53.45 a barrel in New York as investors weighed rising Libyan supply against signs OPEC output began slipping. Gold rose 0.7 percent to the the highest level in almost a month. Aluminum led base metals higher with a 0.7 percent gain. Nickel rose 0.3 percent and zinc was up 0.4 percent.

    Looking at the day ahead, the early data print in the US is the ADP employment change reading for last month which should help anchor expectations for tomorrow’s payrolls. Market consensus for the ADP print is currently 175k which compares to 216k in November. Also due out is the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading while the final services and composite PMI’s will also be confirmed. Also of note is the ISM non-manufacturing reading for last month which will come hot on the heels of the strong manufacturing print earlier this week. Market consensus for this is 56.8. Away from the data we’re due to hear from BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane this afternoon when he speaks at an event in London.

    US Event Calendar
    • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts y/y, Dec. (prior -13.0%)
    • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, Dec., est. 175k (prior 216k)
    • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Dec. 31, est. 260k (prior 265k)
    • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, Dec. F, est. 53.4 (prior 53.4)
    • 10am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Jan. 1 (prior 46.0)
    • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
    • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
    • 11am: DOE Energy Inventories
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    A quick scan through last night’s FOMC minutes will reveal no mention of President-elect Trump’s name but it’s pretty clear where the debates and discussions at the Fed now lie. In a nutshell “almost all” officials made mention of upside risks to their growth forecasts as a result of prospects for more expansionary fiscal policies while interestingly “about half” of the Fed officials incorporated fiscal policy into their forecasts. The caveat though is that the outlook is distinctly uncertain. Indeed the minutes acknowledged that “participants emphasized their considerable uncertainty about the timing, size and composition of any future fiscal and other economic policy initiatives as well as about how those policies might affect aggregate demand and supply”. Officials also acknowledged that this “made it more challenging to communicate to the public about the likely path of the federal funds rate”.

    The minutes also acknowledged that the staff’s forecasts for higher real GDP growth over the next few years “were substantially counterbalanced by the restraint from the higher assumed paths for longer-term interest rates and the foreign exchange value of the dollar”. Away from Trump the rest of the minutes didn’t offer a whole lot of new information with officials seemingly a bit more confident about the balance of risks. That said there was a subtle change to the number of officials concerned about a sizable undershooting of the longerrun normal unemployment rate from “a few members” in November to “several members” in December.

    So the overall tone fits in with Yellen’s post-meeting statement last month where she said that the Fed is “operating under a cloud of uncertainty at the moment”. So every Trump move will continue to be closely watched and scrutinized. With that in mind it’s worth circling the 11th January in your diary as it’s when Trump is due to hold a ‘general news conference’. It’s his first since the election victory and comes just 9 days before his official inauguration so it should be a closely watched event. Evaluating Trump’s administration appointments in the mean time will continue to be a focus for now though. One which stands out is the appointment of Robert Lighthizer as his new trade representative. Lighthizer is seen as a longstanding advocate of greater protectionism and was formerly a trade official under Ronald Reagan. The WSJ also notes that Lighthizer has three decades of experience arguing for punitive tariffs on overseas companies. So it appears that the appointment confirms what is likely to be a major shift in trade policy under a Trump presidency.

    Meanwhile markets turned a fairly blind eye to the minutes yesterday. 10y Treasury yields were hovering around 2.450% leading into the minutes before closing the day at 2.440% and 0.5bps lower on the day. 2y yields finished flat at 1.216% while the USD index, which had struggled as the session wore on, closed -0.67% but again with little reaction post the minutes. It’s been nothing but good news for risk assets in the US so far this year though. The S&P 500 finished +0.57% and so taking the 2017 YTD gain to +1.43%. That’s the best start to the year since 2013. Consumer names were a big driver yesterday although it’s worth noting that both Macy’s and Kohl’s tumbled after market (by -8% and -9% respectively) after both lowered earnings guidance following softer holiday season sales. The MSCI EM equity index also returned +0.35% and has now gained in 7 of the last 8 sessions. The rally in Europe had earlier stalled however with the Stoxx 600 closing down a fairly modest -0.12%. Elsewhere credit has also gotten off to a flier, particularly across the pond and yesterday we saw CDX IG tighten just over 2bps to take the index to the tightest level since May 2015. The new issue market hasn’t taken any time to warm up either with Bloomberg reporting that US IG primary issuance is over $45bn in the first two trading days of the year already and so overtaking that for the first week in 2016 and 2015.

    As we refresh our screens this morning it’s been a bit of a mixed performance in Asia so far. While the Hang Seng (+1.30%) has risen strongly led by gains for the energy sector, bourses in China are little changed while the Nikkei is -0.24%. The Kospi (-0.09%) is also a shade lower while the ASX (+0.29%) is up a touch. US equity index futures are also slightly in the red. There was also some data in China this morning where the Caixin services PMI was confirmed as rising 0.3pts to 53.4 in December. That’s helped push the composite reading up to 53.5 from 52.9 and to the highest level in 45 months.

    Moving on. Away from the minutes, yesterday’s economic data was also generally supportive. In the US we learned that total vehicles sales increased to an annualized rate of 18.3m in December (vs. 17.7m) from 17.8m in the month prior. Over in Europe it was revealed that the estimate of headline Euro area CPI had risen more than expected in December after printing at +1.1% (vs. +1.0% expected) from +0.6% in November. That puts headline inflation at the highest level since September 2013 and encouragingly while higher energy prices led, the increase was actually relatively broad based. The core was also up after rising one-tenth to +0.9% yoy. Meanwhile the remaining PMI’s were also out in Europe yesterday. The final composite PMI for the Euro area in December was revised up to 54.4 from 53.9 after the services reading was revised up 0.6pts to 53.7. That is the highest PMI reading since 2011, just beating the 54.3 seen in August and December 2015. Our European economists also noted that at the same time, a number of the sub-indices, including the composite input and output prices and the backlog of orders, were confirmed at new cyclical highs. Across countries the news was broadly positive across the EMU countries while Italy was the relative disappointment with the composite down 0.5pts to 52.9, although this came after a 2.2pt rise in November. Our colleagues go on to say that at 53.8 on average in Q4 the composite PMI was back to in line with its 2015 levels, a year in which Euro area GDP grew on average by 0.5% qoq.

    Wrapping up the remaining news yesterday. Over in France National Front presidential candidate Marine Le Pen confirmed that she wanted to remove France from the Euro and also redenominate French overnment debt in a new national currency. Le Pen confirmed that she wanted “a national currency with the euro as a common currency” and as the FT made mention to, suggests some softening in her views in favour of a looser form of currency sharing rather than a hard return to a national French currency. Meanwhile in the UK, PM Theresa May moved quickly and decisively to replace Sir Ivan Rogers as the UK Ambassador to the EU by appointing Tim Barrow to the role. He was previously the political director of the government’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

    Looking at the day ahead, the diary is a bit thinner in Europe this morning with the only notable data due out being the remaining December PMI’s in the UK (services and composite) and the PPI print for the Euro area. This afternoon in the US the early data print is the ADP employment change reading for last month which should help anchor expectations for tomorrow’s payrolls. Market consensus for the ADP print is currently 175k which compares to 216k in November. Also due out is the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading while the final services and composite PMI’s will also be confirmed. Also of note is the ISM non-manufacturing reading for last month which will come hot on the heels of the strong manufacturing print earlier this week. Market consensus for this is 56.8. Away from the data we’re due to hear from BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane this afternoon when he speaks at an event in London.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...after-chinese-intervention-halts-dollar-rally
     
  36. searcher

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    Frontrunning: January 5

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Jan 5, 2017 7:46 AM

    • Dollar Posts Biggest Drop Since Trump's Win (BBG)
    • World stocks hit 1-1/2 year high after strong China data (Reuters)
    • Apple pulls New York Times apps in China after government request (Reuters)
    • Macy’s Axes Jobs and Stores, Echoes Kohl’s on Weak Holiday (WSJ)
    • Macy’s Declines After Reducing Outlook, Moves to Cut 6,200 Jobs (BBG)
    • India’s Cash Woes Are Just Beginning (BBG)
    • Trump Sows Dismay in Rural America With Late Agriculture Choice (BBG)
    • Defense Firms Cash In Amid Soaring Demand for Munitions (WSJ)
    • Top Intelligence Officials to Testify on Election Hacking (WSJ)
    • Congress begins Russia hacking probe, Trump still skeptical of U.S. intelligence (Reuters)
    • U.S. obtained evidence after election that Russia leaked emails (Reuters)
    • China’s Epic Short Squeeze Is Back as Yuan Rally Crushes Bears (BBG)
    • In Kuwait, a Deep Opposition Arises to the Pinch of Austerity (WSJ)
    • Barclays Flags ‘Black Swan Threats’ to Commodities This Year (BBG)
    • Iraqi general says 70 percent of east Mosul retaken from Islamic State (Reuters)
    • Tillerson Discloses Global Assets of as Much as $400M (BBG)
    • China's choices narrowing as it burns through FX reserves to support yuan (Reuters)
    • UK Credit Binge Approaching Levels Not Seen Since 2008 Crash (Guardian)
    • Crispin Odey’s Hedge Fund Suffers Worst Ever Annual Loss in 2016 (BBG)
    • China to plow $361 billion into renewable fuel by 2020 (Reuters)
    • Executives from top Turkish conglomerate held in post-coup probe (Reuters)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Apple Inc headlines a growing list of investors in SoftBank Group Corp's $100 billion technology fund, which is expected to include Foxconn Technology Group Ltd and the family office of Oracle Corp Chairman Larry Ellison, the Japanese telecommunications giant said Wednesday. http://on.wsj.com/2hUvJ5W

    - Online retailing giant Amazon.com Inc plans to open its first New York City bookstore in Manhattan's Time Warner Center, the company said. http://on.wsj.com/2hUu1BE

    - Macy's Inc said it will slash more than 10,000 jobs and detailed plans to close dozens of stores after another holiday season of weak sales, providing more evidence that department stores have lost their once-central place in American retailing. http://on.wsj.com/2hUzEzD

    - Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc said that senior management pressured staff to get customers to order its flagship drug earlier than needed to meet financial targets. http://on.wsj.com/2hUqJOS

    - U.S. light-vehicle sales hit a second consecutive annual high, aided by a fourth-quarter surge in demand that exceeded expectations and bolstered the outlook for an industry that has been a key engine for economic growth. http://on.wsj.com/2hUCtRu

    - A former foreign-exchange trader at Barclays Plc pleaded guilty Wednesday to conspiring to manipulate currency rates, the first individual publicly charged in an investigation over collusion at top global banks to move the rates. http://on.wsj.com/2hUD59B

    - Apple Inc has removed the New York Times from its app store in China, following a request from Chinese authorities. http://on.wsj.com/2hUNwd5

    - LG Electronics Inc is doubling down on its smartphone strategy by launching a new model after a turbulent year. http://on.wsj.com/2hUtVtH

    - Ride-hailing service Lyft Inc more than doubled its quarterly ridership from a year before, a welcome boost as it seeks to keep apace with larger rival Uber Technologies Inc. http://on.wsj.com/2hUyowi


    FT

    British new car sales hit a record of 2.7 million units in 2016 despite fears that the Brexit vote could hit demand, although there are signs that registrations will fall this year, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

    British Prime Minister Theresa May appointed a senior career diplomat as envoy to the European Union on Wednesday to replace an ambassador who quit with a scathing resignation letter that exposed frustration among officials over her strategy.

    UK government's plan to open up the higher education market to greater competition would allow private bodies a faster route towards awarding their own degrees and nearly three-quarters of private colleges will remain unregulated, according to a study by the Higher Education Policy Institute.


    NYT

    - Apple Inc, complying with what it said was a request from Chinese authorities, removed news apps created by The New York Times from its app store in China late last month. http://nyti.ms/2iS9agQ

    - Struggling with sagging sales over another crucial holiday shopping season, Macy's Inc announced on Wednesday that it was eliminating more than 10,000 jobs as part of a continuing plan to cut costs and close 100 stores. http://nyti.ms/2hUMHBj

    - The digital publishing company Medium on Wednesday laid off 50 employees - a third of its staff - as part of a larger redefinition of its business model, its founder announced in a blog post. http://nyti.ms/2iKHKMk

    - Genetic engineering start-up Synthego said Wednesday that it had raised $41 million in a new round of financing. The round includes the participation of Jennifer Doudna, the biochemist who helped discover the Crispr-Cas9 gene-editing technique that made altering DNA significantly easier. http://nyti.ms/2iDfAmm

    - Hulu, one of several companies vying to create a lower-cost alternative to cable bundles, will include CBS when its streaming television service is unveiled this year, the company announced on Wednesday. http://nyti.ms/2j6OYqB


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** Richmond, British Columbia is pressing ahead with regulations to crack down on short-term rentals amid complaints that services such as Airbnb are disrupting neighbours and taking away housing in a tight rental market. https://tgam.ca/2ie4AIS

    ** Greater Vancouver's housing market exited 2016 in a slump but still managed to finish with the third-highest sales year on record. Residential sales totalled 1,714 last month, down 39.4 percent from December 2015, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said on Wednesday. https://tgam.ca/2iefgHB

    ** Kevin O'Leary says attacks on him by Conservative leadership candidates are bringing badly needed excitement to the race, after Tory hopeful Lisa Raitt launched a website to stop the reality-TV star from entering the contest. https://tgam.ca/2ie74Hi

    NATIONAL POST

    ** Canada and the United States have highly integrated oil and gas markets, but their governments will pursue opposite energy policies starting this year: Canada is taxing and restricting oil and gas activity and infrastructure to meet international climate change commitments, while the U.S. under Donald Trump will be liberalizing it and pushing its energy renaissance to the next level. http://bit.ly/2ieeJFn

    ** Limited housing supply in the key Canadian markets of Vancouver and Toronto will help maintain national house price inflation this year, even as recent government and regulatory curbs kick in to slow the growth rate, according to Oxford Economics. http://bit.ly/2ieeeLH

    ** Rather than one of the country's biggest banks with a vast international presence like Royal Bank of Canada, or a leading playing in the oil and gas market like Suncor Energy Inc, instead National Bank of Canada stood out for analysts at Citigroup. http://bit.ly/2ie6OIp

    ** The Canadian labour market may have topped expectations and steadily added jobs in 2016, but the vast majority were part-time positions and the "meagre" growth in full-time work was concentrated in industries susceptible to a slowdown, TD Economics says in a new report. http://bit.ly/2iefHlj


    Britain

    The Times

    The Competition and Markets Authority has raised concerns over Mastercard Inc's takeover of VocaLink Holdings, warning that the deal could give the credit and debit card provider too strong a hold over part of the United Kingdom's payment systems. http://bit.ly/2hShkbX

    Poor Christmas trading at Next Plc has delivered a blow to the entire retail industry, hitting confidence and dragging down the shares in many listed stores groups yesterday. http://bit.ly/2j6eCvM

    The Guardian

    The discount retail chain B&M European Value Retail SA revealed a bumper Christmas trading period with sales up to 7.2 percent at established UK stores in 13 weeks to Dec. 24. http://bit.ly/2hS8RWh

    David Metcalf, a founding member of the Low Pay Commission and former chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee, was named on Thursday as the first director of Labour Market Enforcement. http://bit.ly/2j6fXmd

    The Telegraph

    ConvaTec Group Plc, the wound dressings manufacturer, has bought Dutch rival Eurotec Beheer for 25 million euros ($26.30 million), in the company's first acquisition since listing on the stock market in October. http://bit.ly/2j6eTi2

    Britain's economy is bouncing back from the slump in business confidence which struck in the wake of the Brexit vote, with services, manufacturing and construction firms all reporting solid growth in the final months of 2016. http://bit.ly/2j6dg4d

    Sky News

    Next Plc has warned its shoppers they face price rises of up to 5 percent in the year ahead, with a series of cost pressures potentially knocking annual profits by as much as 14 percent. http://bit.ly/2hSh4cV

    Currency trading broker FxPro has shelved plans for a London stock market flotation amid a crackdown by regulators on financial spread-betting groups. http://bit.ly/2j6hWXS

    The Independent

    Mark Clare is to replace Baroness Ford as the chairman of Grainger Plc, breaking up the first all-female board of a FTSE company. http://ind.pn/2hShmR6

    Department store chain John Lewis Plc saw sales surge by more than a third in the run-up to Christmas, with a similar boost of 31.1 percent at its Waitrose supermarkets, despite tough trading conditions for retailers. http://ind.pn/2j6ht7O

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-05/
     
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    DB - Opening Bell: 1.5.17
    http://dealbreaker.com/2017/01/opening-bell-1-5-17/

    Naked Capitalism Links 01/05
    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/01/links-1517.html

    SA - Market news Live Feed 01/05
    http://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    CWS - Morning News: January 5, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/01/morning-news-january-5-2016-2.html

    TRB - Hot Links: Operating System 01/05
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/01/05/hot-links-operating-system/

    SA - Wall Street Breakfast: CES Takes Center Stage 01/05
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/4034446-wall-street-breakfast-ces-takes-center-stage

    RR - Innovations, Black Swans and Artificial Intelligence 01/05
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...tions-black-swans-and-artificial-intelligence

    MtM - Dollar Slide but Resilience Demonstrated while Yuan Squeezed Higher 01/05
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/01/dollar-slide-but-reslience-demonstrated.html
     

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