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2018 Breast Cancer Awareness Coins

Professur

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#3
Won't that make their purity questionable?
 

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#4
Won't that make their purity questionable?
Historically, US gold coins have been minted with 90% Au content.

The other 10% can vary at any given time.
 

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#5
Historically, US gold coins have been minted with 90% Au content.

The other 10% can vary at any given time.
Interesting, a closer look at the Mint catalog specifications reveals that the coin has only 85% gold content, as opposed to the 90% that were used with all previous $5 gold commemorative coins.

The complete alloy content is 85% Gold, 14.8% Copper, and 0.2% Zinc. With a weight of 7.931 grams, this makes the gold content 6.74 grams, or 0.2167 troy oz.

By comparison, the 2017 coin had a weight of 8.359 grams, with 90% gold, 6% silver, and 4% copper. Making the gold content 7.5231 grams, or 0.24187 troy oz. Interestingly, the $5 gold coins from the late 1800s also had a weight of 8.359 grams, with the same 90% gold content but having 10% copper.

Looks like the mint has been experimenting with different compositions of base metals to create a certain kind of finish. I think they want to create an example coin that best demonstrates the craftsmanship of their engravers and minters.

With the lowered gold content of this year's coin, I sincerely hope the issue price will be lowered accordingly. Otherwise, someone will be angry (if this lowers sales greatly, who knows, maybe we might have another key coin this year...).
 

mayhem

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#6
Does this mean they will make one in memory of those who have lung cancer?
 

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#7
Does this mean they will make one in memory of those who have lung cancer?
Maybe adding some carbon to the mixture instead of copper and zinc can give the coin a distinctive black, ash-like finish. There must be a 3rd metal out there to complete the alloy...

The coin design might feature the Marlboro man riding a camel in the Mojave desert, paying respect to an unlucky customer buried nearby...
 
Last edited:

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#8
As of tomorrow, the introductory price for the $5 gold unc is $421.

A few key factors go into this price:

1) During 1/18, the Mint revised their gold price grid slightly upward, increasing the premium of their 1-oz gold coins by $17.50. Naturally, the price revision carries over to gold commemorative coins as well, to some extent.

2) The lowering of gold composition of this year's coin from 90% to 85% does not seem to be accompanied by a corresponding price discount, as the price grid seems to be based on the size of the Mint's gold coins, not their gold content. So a 0.85 inch gold coin with 85% gold is priced the same as a 0.85 inch gold coin with 90% gold content.

3) An introductory price discount is in effect for one month, but it is not enough to outweigh the effects of factors 1 and 2.

Even with the introductory price discount, the net result is that this year's gold commemorative coins are more expensive relative to last year's coins, despite the lower gold content. By comparison, the 2017 Boys town coin sold at $412 late last year, when spot gold was in the same range as it is now.

If the 2018 coins were priced based on last year's scale, and also taking into account the lower gold content, this year's gold unc coin should be priced at $412 - $1325 * (0.24187 - 0.2167) - $10 = $369, or $52 less than its actual price.

Clearly, the Mint is selling these coins at a much higher profit margin than last year's coins. The only hope now is that collectors will reject these coins to the point of pushing the mintage even lower than last year's coins. A highly unlikely proposition, if you ask me...
 

oldgaranddad

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#9
I'm not impressed with the design from the almost radical looking fist salute to the willy nilly placement of the ribbon and butterfly on the obverse. The repeated motif of the butterfly on the reverse makes it look like the designers ran out of ideas plus the execution of the butterfly did not come out well.

I can see the extra copper and zinc to create the pink hue causing issues with copper spotting as the coins age. Even at 10% the mint has to get it just right to prevent spotting as the coins age. Here we see the mint going all in on a unproven alloy. I hope they get lucky.

I don't see collectors going for this one but initial sales will be spiked by bulk dealer purchases so we should see how things shake out in a few weeks.
 

savvydon

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#10
The only hope now is that collectors will reject these coins to the point of pushing the mintage even lower than last year's coins. A highly unlikely proposition, if you ask me...
Numbers will be higher this year than for last year.
 

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#11
Numbers will be higher this year than for last year.
Exactly. Most buyers will probably overlook the specifications detailing the coin's gold content of 85%, assuming it to be 90% (which I almost did myself, before checking a 2nd time), and this year's theme is certainly more popular than last year's.

The Mint probably spent some overhead costs experimenting with different metal compositions to get the right color. But even when they released the curved Baseball HOF coins 4 years ago, the premium wasn't increased for similar reasons.

From a buyer's standpoint, this coin is bound to be a failure, being handicapped by the greater premium over melt value, compared to normal. Anyway, I welcome one year of higher mintage, if only to prop up the values of the 2015 and 2016 coins in my inventory.

The interesting question is whether next year, does the Mint go back to 90% gold, or keep the 85% gold content and look for base metals of 15% to get the right color match...
 

EO 11110

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#12
Interesting, a closer look at the Mint catalog specifications reveals that the coin has only 85% gold content, as opposed to the 90% that were used with all previous $5 gold commemorative coins.

The complete alloy content is 85% Gold, 14.8% Copper, and 0.2% Zinc. With a weight of 7.931 grams, this makes the gold content 6.74 grams, or 0.2167 troy oz.

By comparison, the 2017 coin had a weight of 8.359 grams, with 90% gold, 6% silver, and 4% copper. Making the gold content 7.5231 grams, or 0.24187 troy oz. Interestingly, the $5 gold coins from the late 1800s also had a weight of 8.359 grams, with the same 90% gold content but having 10% copper.

Looks like the mint has been experimenting with different compositions of base metals to create a certain kind of finish. I think they want to create an example coin that best demonstrates the craftsmanship of their engravers and minters.

With the lowered gold content of this year's coin, I sincerely hope the issue price will be lowered accordingly. Otherwise, someone will be angry (if this lowers sales greatly, who knows, maybe we might have another key coin this year...).
this is disturbing. I've, until now, considered these the modern versions of real money. they meet the coinage act of 1792 specs. they should not debase the series like that. make a medal or something, not a five dollar gold piece. makes me wonder if there isn't a more sinister motive - a move to classify these coins as ceremonial tokens or something..
 

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#13
Maybe adding some carbon to the mixture instead of copper and zinc can give the coin a distinctive black, ash-like finish. There must be a 3rd metal out there to complete the alloy...

LOL, maybe garner a "carbon credit" for the sequestration of a few molecules of carbon, for eternity, as long as you swear to it, read some worthless oath or something
LOL

The coin design might feature the Marlboro man riding a camel in the Mojave desert, paying respect to an unlucky customer buried nearby...
Needs a "fallout cloud", which could be sold as a "second hand smoke cloud", on the reverse

but we'd know better, bwhahaha


this is disturbing. I've, until now, considered these the modern versions of real money. they meet the coinage act of 1792 specs. they should not debase the series like that. make a medal or something, not a five dollar gold piece. makes me wonder if there isn't a more sinister motive - a move to classify these coins as ceremonial tokens or something..
o.k. to the grain of my metabolism
AGREED!




DON'T FUCK WITH MY MONEY!


FOR ANY REASON!



o.k. i've done what I can, here

can I go?

i do agree, completely with the ideology so, why doesn't reason rule?


is it just a color thing?
but weird, it is a historic thing, in may ways, even one being American



so,
I'm good


when's the Prostrate Commemorative Silver Dollar come out?
It want it to be Camouflaged, right?

not as in, you can't see it, but, that there's nothing there, right?


something positive

f off over, rover:dog:
 

Buck

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#14
Really?
This coin was to be issued under a Hillary watch?






'member berries, bitches?
 

Buck

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#15
I just looked at it



if that's what a woman looks like, my woman looks like, after I've had a rough day paving a road?

bitch, hit the bricks, after i fuck you one more time






and so answers the age old question:
Where do Nuns come from?



:laughing:
 

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#16
this is disturbing. I've, until now, considered these the modern versions of real money. they meet the coinage act of 1792 specs. they should not debase the series like that. make a medal or something, not a five dollar gold piece. makes me wonder if there isn't a more sinister motive - a move to classify these coins as ceremonial tokens or something..
My thoughts exactly.

I can remember buying the 1986 Statue of Liberty proof set a long time ago. That was the year when the Mint started to sell gold and silver commemorative coins on a yearly basis (more or less), for over 30 years.

The 90% gold and silver coins in the commemorative offerings continued the tradition of 90% gold and silver coinage that was used in the late 1800s and beyond.

That tradition is at risk of being broken, with this year's coins.
 

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#17
Here are the opening sales numbers of the 2018 coins...
Commemoratives 18CE 2018 BREAST CANCER GOLD PROOF 5627 03/18/2018
Commemoratives 18CF 2018 BREAST CANCER GOLD UNC 2727 03/18/2018
Commemoratives 18CG 2018 BREAST CANCER SILVER PROOF 16087 03/18/2018
Commemoratives 18CH 2018 BREAST CANCER SILVER UNC 6607 03/18/2018
Commemoratives 18CJ 2018 BREAST CANCER CLAD PROOF 10092 03/18/2018
Commemoratives 18CK 2018 BREAST CANCER CLAD UNC 5966 03/18/2018

And the 2017 and 2016 numbers, for comparison...
Commemoratives 17CA 2017 BOYS TOWN GOLD PROOF 807 03/12/2017
Commemoratives 17CB 2017 BOYS TOWN GOLD UNC 1054 03/12/2017
Commemoratives 17CC 2017 BOYS TOWN SILVER PROOF 9044 03/12/2017
Commemoratives 17CD 2017 BOYS TOWN SILVER UNC 4959 03/12/2017
Commemoratives 17CE 2017 BOYS TOWN CLAD PROOF 9064 03/12/2017
Commemoratives 17CF 2017 BOYS TOWN CLAD UNC 10030 03/12/2017
Commemoratives 17CG 2017 BOYS TOWN 3-COIN SET 3123 03/12/2017

Commemoratives 16CA 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD PROOF 2,231 03/27/2016
Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 1,794 03/27/2016
Commemoratives 16CC 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE SILVER PROOF 19,518 03/27/2016
Commemoratives 16CD 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE SILVER UNC 8,647 03/27/2016
Commemoratives 16CE 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE CLAD PROOF 15,416 03/27/2016
Commemoratives 16CF 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE CLAD UNC 9,001 03/27/2016
Commemoratives 16CG 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE 3-COIN SET 7,886 03/27/2016

Commemoratives 16CH 2016 MARK TWAIN GOLD PROOF 5,993 01/17/2016
Commemoratives 16CJ 2016 MARK TWAIN GOLD UNC 2,990 01/17/2016
Looking at the numbers, I would say that this year's Breast Cancer Awareness coins started approximately on par with the 2016 Mark Twain coins, with sales in the upper 5k range for the gold proof and the upper 2k range for the gold unc. But the numbers are significantly higher than the 2016 National Park Service (not considering the proof coins) and far higher than the 2017 Boys Town coins.

I noticed that there is no 3-coin set for this year's coins. This may help keep the mintage of the 2018 gold proof at reasonably low levels, but it is still projected to finish with much higher mintage than last year's gold proof (even counting numbers from last year's 3-coin set). On the other hand, the 2018 gold unc is handicapped due to the lack of a 3-coin set, as the bias toward proof coins has been removed (this may explain why opening numbers for the 2018 gold unc are high compared to previous years).

With some luck, this year's coins might finish with lower mintage than the 2016 Mark Twain coins, but I would not bet on it. Also keep in mind that having National Park coins in the same year helped keep the Mark Twain mintage numbers down, and vice versa.

All in all, I am nearly certain that I will be staying on the sidelines for this year's coins, but I might look at prices next year on eBay.
 

Buck

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#18
Low(er) mintage is still lower mintage
There have now been two mid-90's type mintages, etc, break it all down, I'd wait to read it

POV: keep stacking, the lower numbers aren't done
maybe not low/lows but still low

I now own several new coins worth triple their mint issue, only because of production numbers

it won't last so grab it while you can, your children will love you for it but stay away from collectibles, they're not for everyone


EXIT
 

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#19
Low(er) mintage is still lower mintage
There have now been two mid-90's type mintages, etc, break it all down, I'd wait to read it

POV: keep stacking, the lower numbers aren't done
maybe not low/lows but still low

I now own several new coins worth triple their mint issue, only because of production numbers

it won't last so grab it while you can, your children will love you for it but stay away from collectibles, they're not for everyone


EXIT
Good way to put it.

Last year's low numbers were staring right at us in our face, but many of us did not buy due to concerns of weak designs.

By the way, I took a second look at yesterday's numbers and although the gold unc numbers did not look promising, the silver and clad unc numbers this year show some promise.

I might order some silver and clad unc coins this month, if the low numbers prevail.
 

Usury

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#20
Who cares about the AU...let’s get to what’s really important, like where are the breasts on this coin!!!????


Hmmm....


Oh wait...maybe that’s the point?
 

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#21
Good way to put it.

Commemoratives 18CH 2018 BREAST CANCER SILVER UNC 6607 03/18/2018
Commemoratives 18CK 2018 BREAST CANCER CLAD UNC 5966 03/18/2018

Commemoratives 17CD 2017 BOYS TOWN SILVER UNC 4959 03/12/2017
Commemoratives 17CF 2017 BOYS TOWN CLAD UNC 10030 03/12/2017

I might order some silver and clad unc coins this month, if the low numbers prevail.
The clad unc is currently positioned at 1st place in mintage, with the silver unc at 2nd place.

The $5 price increase is to blame for the very poor clad unc sales. It hurts the average collector, but it may help in the long run, due to higher potential resale value from the lower mintage. I myself have sold 2 of the 2016-D coins for a profit.
 

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#22
This week's sales numbers...

Commemoratives 18CE 2018 BREAST CANCER GOLD PROOF 6560 03/25/2018
Commemoratives 18CF 2018 BREAST CANCER GOLD UNC 3047 03/25/2018
Commemoratives 18CG 2018 BREAST CANCER SILVER PROOF 19929 03/25/2018
Commemoratives 18CH 2018 BREAST CANCER SILVER UNC 8144 03/25/2018
Commemoratives 18CJ 2018 BREAST CANCER CLAD PROOF 11886 03/25/2018
Commemoratives 18CK 2018 BREAST CANCER CLAD UNC 7073 03/25/2018
The clad unc coin is looking more promising now, despite the $5 price increase. I look at this as insurance to keep the mintage number low. Compared to the 2017 mintage (which was a record low), we are still a few thousand under the 1st-week sales of that year, and we are already done with the 2nd week.

When I bought my 2016-D clad unc coins, I did not receive the introductory discount, but my sale price was still $20 higher than my buy price, for the 2 coins I sold so far.

I'm not quite sure about the other coins in the set, however.
 

oldgaranddad

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#23
@Starter I'd be wary of the UNC clad coin. That is a prime candidate for a Home Shopping Channel sale blowout by some dealer through the bulk dealer sales program.

The UNC gold may stay steady since it has a higher premium over melt and the design is not inspiring.
 

EO 11110

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#24
My thoughts exactly.

I can remember buying the 1986 Statue of Liberty proof set a long time ago. That was the year when the Mint started to sell gold and silver commemorative coins on a yearly basis (more or less), for over 30 years.

The 90% gold and silver coins in the commemorative offerings continued the tradition of 90% gold and silver coinage that was used in the late 1800s and beyond.

That tradition is at risk of being broken, with this year's coins.
funny you should mention that set. picked one up recently - waiting for mailman....err mailperson :drive by: to deliver it

have you seen the collapse of the jackie? that thing has been hammered
 

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#25
@Starter I'd be wary of the UNC clad coin. That is a prime candidate for a Home Shopping Channel sale blowout by some dealer through the bulk dealer sales program.

The UNC gold may stay steady since it has a higher premium over melt and the design is not inspiring.
Interesting...do you have some example of a similar sale in recent years?

funny you should mention that set. picked one up recently - waiting for mailman....err mailperson :drive by: to deliver it

have you seen the collapse of the jackie? that thing has been hammered
The Jackie coin is still out of my price range (it is still selling for $1800 at MS70 on eBay)--but that's probably a good thing, especially when one can spend the cash on the current year coin (or next year's coin), and have good hopes of getting a comparably low mintage.

I will be happy when the 1986 Statue of Liberty coin (the highest mintage) can be bought at melt in MS70 condition.
 

oldgaranddad

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#26
@Starter I've seen dozens of mint issues being hawked on the home shopping channels, take your pick of the most recent modern commemorative clad and silver issues. Just take a gander at the Home Shopping Network's Coin Collector page.
 

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#27
@Starter I've seen dozens of mint issues being hawked on the home shopping channels, take your pick of the most recent modern commemorative clad and silver issues. Just take a gander at the Home Shopping Network's Coin Collector page.
Point taken.

I think I will still pick up some of the clad unc coins, as I think they are a great way to keep my eBay selling record strong. In the 3 months I have been selling coins on eBay, I learned that small sales are just as good as big ones in building and maintaining one's reputation as an eBay seller.

As of today, I have completed my 3rd sale of a 2016-D National Park clad unc coin. Even without the introductory discount, I was able to sell each one significantly above the issue price of $25 (my sale prices were $45, $45, and $47.85).

Although I might not be as lucky with this year's coin (even if it hits a mintage record), I feel most comfortable with this kind of sale on eBay.
 

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#28
This week's sales numbers...

Commemoratives 18CE 2018 BREAST CANCER GOLD PROOF 7921 04/01/2018
Commemoratives 18CF 2018 BREAST CANCER GOLD UNC 3522 04/01/2018
Commemoratives 18CG 2018 BREAST CANCER SILVER PROOF 21326 04/01/2018
Commemoratives 18CH 2018 BREAST CANCER SILVER UNC 8421 04/01/2018
Commemoratives 18CJ 2018 BREAST CANCER CLAD PROOF 12722 04/01/2018
Commemoratives 18CK 2018 BREAST CANCER CLAD UNC 7853 04/01/2018
By comparison, here are the sales numbers for the 3rd week of last year's coins...

Commemoratives 17CA 2017 BOYS TOWN GOLD PROOF 1017 03/26/2017
Commemoratives 17CB 2017 BOYS TOWN GOLD UNC 1351 03/26/2017
Commemoratives 17CC 2017 BOYS TOWN SILVER PROOF 13865 03/26/2017
Commemoratives 17CD 2017 BOYS TOWN SILVER UNC 6830 03/26/2017
Commemoratives 17CE 2017 BOYS TOWN CLAD PROOF 11944 03/26/2017
Commemoratives 17CF 2017 BOYS TOWN CLAD UNC 11804 03/26/2017
Commemoratives 17CG 2017 BOYS TOWN 3-COIN SET 3881 03/26/2017
Like the previous week, this year's Clad Unc is in record mintage territory, beating last year's benchmark by 3951. The Clad Proof edges past last year's coin as well (counting the 3-coin set numbers), by 3103.

I cannot make similar statements for this year's Silver Proof, Silver Unc, Gold Proof, or Gold Unc, which are bringing in good revenue for the Mint.

Considering that the Clad Proof costs only $2 higher than the Clad Unc, I might buy some along with the Clad Unc coins.
 

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#29
It may be worthwhile to look at the 2016 National Park 3rd week numbers as well, for comparison...

Commemoratives 16CA 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD PROOF 2,866 04/10/2016
Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 2,217 04/10/2016
Commemoratives 16CC 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE SILVER PROOF 29,234 04/10/2016
Commemoratives 16CD 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE SILVER UNC 11,931 04/10/2016
Commemoratives 16CE 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE CLAD PROOF 21,492 04/10/2016
Commemoratives 16CF 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE CLAD UNC 11,617 04/10/2016
Commemoratives 16CG 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE 3-COIN SET 9,808 04/10/2016
With this comparison, this year's Gold Proof and Silver Proof coins look somewhat better. The lack of a 3-coin set helps the Proof coins considerably.
 

EO 11110

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#30
damn starter, you have the data from the exact week of 2016? ever think about starting a thread for general discussion on commems? i would be a regular reader. i think several others would be too.
 

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damn starter, you have the data from the exact week of 2016? ever think about starting a thread for general discussion on commems? i would be a regular reader. i think several others would be too.
All the mintage data is from the US Mint website. I just took a few minutes to gather the data.

As for a new thread on commems, I might just do that, one of these days. Thanks for the idea!
 

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#32
Last night I completed my order for 6 Clad Unc (18CK) and 2 Clad Proof (18CJ) coins.

I was ready to buy twice that much, but I decided to be more conservative after looking at poor sales of the 2017-D coin on eBay, compared to the 2016-D coin.

In theory, a lower mintage coin should sell higher, but this has not been the case for the 2017-D Boys Town coin. The 2016-D National Park coin has consistently sold at $50 per coin (or higher) in recent months, but the 2017-D Boys Town coin is lucky to sell at $40 or higher on eBay, even though its mintage is significantly less. There are probably factors beyond mintage that have propelled the 2016-D coin to its current price point.
 

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#33
Last night I completed my order for 6 Clad Unc (18CK) and 2 Clad Proof (18CJ) coins.

I was ready to buy twice that much, but I decided to be more conservative after looking at poor sales of the 2017-D coin on eBay, compared to the 2016-D coin.

In theory, a lower mintage coin should sell higher, but this has not been the case for the 2017-D Boys Town coin. The 2016-D National Park coin has consistently sold at $50 per coin (or higher) in recent months, but the 2017-D Boys Town coin is lucky to sell at $40 or higher on eBay, even though its mintage is significantly less. There are probably factors beyond mintage that have propelled the 2016-D coin to its current price point.
My order of Clad Unc and Proof coins arrived yesterday.

I was quite impressed by the quality of the coins, especially the Unc coins, which were markedly better than the Clad Unc coins I bought in previous years. I am now considering sending some of these in for grading, along with other commems I have bought in the last two years.

Due to the superior quality of the coins compared to previous years, I can attest that the $5 price increase was well justified. I might actually decide to make another order, following my earlier intention to buy more of these coins.
 

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#34
My order of Clad Unc and Proof coins arrived yesterday.

I was quite impressed by the quality of the coins, especially the Unc coins, which were markedly better than the Clad Unc coins I bought in previous years. I am now considering sending some of these in for grading, along with other commems I have bought in the last two years.

Due to the superior quality of the coins compared to previous years, I can attest that the $5 price increase was well justified. I might actually decide to make another order, following my earlier intention to buy more of these coins.
Last night I placed a similar order for 6 Clad Unc and 2 Clad Proof coins.

I made the decision based on the superior quality of the coins, which can be confirmed by looking at the NGC census numbers.
 

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#35
Tomorrow's mintage numbers will help me determine whether I will order a 3rd set of 8 Clad coins--or perhaps throw a silver dollar or two into the mix.

If the mintage gap between the 2018 and 2017 coins widens, then I may decide to make the order. Otherwise, I will probably hold back.

If I do make a 3rd order, then there will be an extra $4.95 shipping cost attached to it, which I do not regret. For the 2nd order, at least I can say that I had the knowledge of the superior quality of the coins in the 1st order before making it--so I do not consider that shipping cost to be a waste.

As of today, the introductory price discount will end in a week, so tomorrow's sales report will be the last one before that time.
 

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#36
Here are this week's sales numbers:

Commemoratives 18CE 2018 BREAST CANCER GOLD PROOF 8247 04/08/2018
Commemoratives 18CF 2018 BREAST CANCER GOLD UNC 3644 04/08/2018
Commemoratives 18CG 2018 BREAST CANCER SILVER PROOF 22904 04/08/2018
Commemoratives 18CH 2018 BREAST CANCER SILVER UNC 8963 04/08/2018
Commemoratives 18CJ 2018 BREAST CANCER CLAD PROOF 13526 04/08/2018
Commemoratives 18CK 2018 BREAST CANCER CLAD UNC 8408 04/08/2018
And here is a breakdown of the 2018 Clad Unc and Clad Proof sales numbers versus the corresponding weeks in 2017:

Clad Unc

2018 2017 Margin
5966 10030 4064
7073 11137 4064
7853 11804 3951
8408 12353 3945

Clad Proof

2018 2017 3coin* Margin
10092 9064 3123 2095
11886 10839 3629 2582
12722 11944 3881 3103
13526 12938 4061 3473

* 3-coin set numbers shown for 2017 only, as there is no 3-coin set offered in 2018.
A pleasant surprise is that the margin has consistently grown for this year's Clad Proof, while the Clad Unc's margin holds stable in the range from 3900 to 4100, for the first 4 weeks of sales since the release of both years' coins.

Although the 2018 Clad Unc's margin has narrowed by a slight amount, it is still bigger than that enjoyed by its Proof counterpart.

In summary, these are very encouraging sales numbers over these 4 weeks. Before jumping into a large purchase of Clad Unc and Proof coins, however, one must be warned that the 2017 coins enjoyed the huge advantage of being discontinued 3 weeks early, eliminating the anticipated large number of sales during the last week of the year.

In order to account for this disadvantage--from the standpoint of the 2018 coins--one can look at the sales surge of the 2016 coins during the last few weeks as a benchmark.

Next I will consider the last-week surge of the 2016 Clad Unc coins, and also the prospects of the 2018 Silver Unc coins.
 
Last edited:

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#37
After looking at the 2017 numbers, I found that I was mistaken in saying that the 2017 coins were discontinued 3 weeks early--actually, only the 2017 Gold Unc coin was discontinued early.

Here are the last 4 weeks of sales of the 2016 and 2017 Clad Unc coins:

Clad Unc

2016 2017
18525 14802
18767 14967
19648 15059
21335 15561
Using these numbers as a benchmark, we can expect a surge of anywhere between 750 and 3000 within the last 4 weeks of the year, which is well under the current margin of mintage enjoyed by both the 2018 Clad Unc and Proof coins.
 

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#38
Finally, here is a breakdown of the 2018 Silver Unc numbers, compared to those of its 2017 and 2016 counterparts:

Silver Unc

2018 2017 2016 vs2017 vs2016
6607 4959 8647 -1648 2040
8144 6121 10917 -2023 2773
8421 6830 11931 -1591 3510
8963 7467 12683 -1496 3720
Unlike the 2018 Clad Unc and Proof coins, this year's Silver Unc coin does not hold the lead in low mintage for the current week of sales, compared to the 2017 coin.

However, it holds a substantial lead in low mintage compared to the 2016 coin, and considering the much larger collector base of commemorative silver dollars compared to the gold and clad coins, this lead might be sufficient to establish itself as a high-value coin.

The silver lining of being in 2nd place in the race (no pun intended) is that without having the lead, the risk of a last-week surge in sales is lessened significantly, as we have seen with other coins in recent years.
 

Buck

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#39
Funny how things go:
Clad Commemorative Coins are a popular collector piece
I've followed them for several years now and have a few, nicer, graded pieces

What I was taught was:
If I were to choose to buy from the Mint, I need to choose wisely because if I didn't, I may not get the premium back
What I decided was to keep my Mint purchases to PM's only, I haven't bought anything for a while
but
I was taught that if I wanted to have a series of something, anything, do it "upper" type
What I decided to do was to get a few Commem pieces per year, certified, perfect
eh, I can't say I don't have Clad Coins, myself, I do but I have flipped more cert Silver Commems than I've flipped any other type coin
People love 'em and I'm happy that folks do enjoy the Clad Commem pieces too

They're all just art, but, what I've maybe noticed:
If the content of the coin doesn't match the art, the coin becomes a dog and doesn't sell well

I win :secret:


fer instance:
Boys Town coin featuring a girl and a moon
National Parks with a Mexican Dancer on it
Really?
 

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#40
Funny how things go:
Clad Commemorative Coins are a popular collector piece
I've followed them for several years now and have a few, nicer, graded pieces

What I was taught was:
If I were to choose to buy from the Mint, I need to choose wisely because if I didn't, I may not get the premium back
What I decided was to keep my Mint purchases to PM's only, I haven't bought anything for a while
but
I was taught that if I wanted to have a series of something, anything, do it "upper" type
What I decided to do was to get a few Commem pieces per year, certified, perfect
eh, I can't say I don't have Clad Coins, myself, I do but I have flipped more cert Silver Commems than I've flipped any other type coin
People love 'em and I'm happy that folks do enjoy the Clad Commem pieces too
Last year was a great year for both silver and clad coins, and I am glad to have bought some of each.

This year, I believe the scales are tilted heavily toward the clad coins, both in regard to mintage and average condition. I am looking forward to sending some of them in for grading.

They're all just art, but, what I've maybe noticed:
If the content of the coin doesn't match the art, the coin becomes a dog and doesn't sell well

I win :secret:


fer instance:
Boys Town coin featuring a girl and a moon
National Parks with a Mexican Dancer on it
Really?
With this year's theme, the girls on the coins actually do match the theme, and they do so very well...

Maybe that may help explain the high sales for the gold and silver coins.

Speaking of the gold coin, could I be ignoring the elephant in the room, which is that the pink hue of the gold coin is not a mere gimmick, but a new variety of coin by itself? Just like the 2014 baseball coins, which were curved, this year's gold coins have a unique feature, except that it is not shared by the silver or clad coins.

Even if we consider the pink coins as a new variety, I do not believe this extra feature will translate to higher premium, in the long run. First of all, the Mint did not discount their issue price according to the reduction in gold content. Once collectors are informed of this important fact, secondary market premiums will naturally adjust themselves, and the feature-based premium will eventually fade away, like it did with the baseball coins.