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Best way to bet on silver?

RebelYell

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#1
Years ago I used to buy Silver Wheaton to bet on silver, back when Silver Wheaton was almost entirely a leveraged bet on silver. Obviously Silver Wheaton became Wheaton Precious Metals and only about 30% of revenues come from silver.

Anybody got any suggestions as to the best way to bet on silver these days?

Thanks
 

Strawboss

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#2
Stick to North American based silver miners...

First Majestic - AG
Hecla - HL
Coeur D'Alene - CDE
Pan American - PAAS
Mag Silver - MAG

And for when the pigs start flying- good ol' Great Panther - GPL

The Jr. Silver miners ETF is ok - I just wish it had more liquidity...SILJ
 

ttazzman

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#4
for very short term trading or your word "bet" i personally like SLV or USLV etc.......my perspective includes major physical holdings to counter balance any trading i do.....

trading for me is just a way to buy and sell without having to go out and pay premiums and find buyers/sellers of physical .....be aware when the rubber meets the road its all about what you actually hold in hand
 

Roger Ramjet

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#6
of course, imho:
physically 'buy and hold' is the way to go...
I'd add: make sure you diversify and fractionalize your stack to make sure you have flexibility when it needs to be used - e.g. junk silver (when or if it becomes affordable again), different sizes of rounds and coins (1/4, 1/2, etc), bars to use for larger exchanges etc - not just 1 oz rounds. Stick to stuff that's well recognized among Ag stackers. Just my (pre 1983) 2 cents...

RR
 

solarion

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#7
Step 1) Obtain physical metal...let the banksters tend to their counterfeits.
Step 2) Avoid boats with your stash.
 

TomD

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#8
for very short term trading or your word "bet" i personally like SLV or USLV etc.......my perspective includes major physical holdings to counter balance any trading i do.....

trading for me is just a way to buy and sell without having to go out and pay premiums and find buyers/sellers of physical .....be aware when the rubber meets the road its all about what you actually hold in hand
For a quick "bet", the ETF's are the way to go, just a quick in and out based on spot. No paying a dealer more than spot to buy in and receiving less than spot on the way out. For silver, that can easily add up to $5/oz in transaction costs.

But be aware that silver has a history of market manipulation by the big players, this isn't conspiracy theory, there are people in jail for it. Hopefully you won't get crushed as "they" make their plays. Oh, and you do get the dreaded 1099.

Mid and long term though, stay the hell away from paper.

Why would you bet on a company as a reflection of the cost of silver rather than directly on the commodity itself?
 
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Buck

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#9
i like threads like this...it reminds me why I remain in the 'gutter'...we're a different breed us silverphobes
anyone is welcome! yet few choose to 'dip their toes'...

good company ladies and gentlemen, good company!

:green tea:

trading for me is just a way to buy and sell without having to go out and pay premiums and find buyers/sellers of physical
and i don't say this enough, i'm a bit envious of those with enough liquidity to program a plan that includes 'free metal', and is able to achieve this 'from the markets'...
my 'from the markets' moment, comes from an ebay sale of a 'regular type' silver bar, at or above 40%
spot (some here will chuckle at that number, by multiples...I'm old too, i got some of that too but that's at the bottom of a lake, some in the ocean, some everywhere but with me...i'd just lose it, LOL, think Biden, I'd Biden My Stash...lol, new meme, Biden My Stash!)

Step 1) Obtain physical metal...let the banksters tend to their counterfeits.
Step 2) Avoid boats with your stash.
the Chinese are tending to counterfeits also...and boats, LOL

reminds me...short tale:
Was shopping for chlorine tabs the other night...nothing available from China
I made my last purchase from China for 1" tabs...now nothing.
ebay offered for me to 'look at' tabs from the UK, but I couldn't buy them because they wouldn't ship to CA address

:dduck:

i wasn't pissed at all
:rotf:

i wouldn't sell to just anyone who says they're in Ca...
:idea:


that might be viewed one day as looking like you 'consorted with the enemy'


whistle:
 

solarion

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#11
...and that works fine, right up to the point it doesn't. Amazingly though people here seem to think bitcoin is horrible allegedly because "you don't hold it and therefore don't own it" ...which is WRONG btw, the very same people are fine with owning bankster fictions that they can never "hold" and pretending they're good as gold or silver. The disconnect is striking.

Banksters are using their paper frauds to suppress the actual exchange rate of physical metals vs US dollars. Why help them?
 

Strawboss

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#12

FlaGman

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#13
I had about 150K that I was moving out of crashing general equities a few months ago that I put into SLV (which was in the low 11s at the time) as a short term play. My “problem” now is that I am up 60k but really don’t want to pay any more income tax this year, so I am sitting on it until 2021. I also bought into First Magestic (AG) and Fortuna Silver (FSM) as longer term silver investments. I would not do any of this did I not already have a strong base in physical that has been built up over years.
 

TomD

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#15
Leverage,

Silver goes up 10%, many silver stocks go up 20-50%.
.
.
And inversely?

I see your point but unless you invest small sums, that's the equivalent of putting the mortgage on the next card. What happens when one of the big brokerage houses pulls one of their short plays while you're standing out there naked?
 

ZZZZZ

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#16
And inversely?

I see your point but unless you invest small sums, that's the equivalent of putting the mortgage on the next card. What happens when one of the big brokerage houses pulls one of their short plays while you're standing out there naked?
Yes, leverage works both ways, but "betting" on something, anything, implies you are willing to risk losing your entire bet. That's how betting works.

"Investing" is a whole different subject and strategy.
.
.
 

Buck

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#17
right, like, I bet on my boat and lost...it sunk because i overloaded it with minimal risk...twas a bad investment...next time i'll hedge and buy a bigger boat

:green tea:
 

ZZZZZ

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#18
right, like, I bet on my boat and lost...it sunk because i overloaded it with minimal risk...twas a bad investment...next time i'll hedge and buy a bigger boat

:green tea:
Right, but if you load your boat with "paper silver," it will never sink.

:belly laugh:
.
.
 

GOLDBRIX

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#20
Ya'll hit all the ideas as BEST is not always quick money.
"Bet" any equity /ETF are bets. No matter how Bullish the economy is.
 

jelly

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#21
There really aren't very many predominantly silver producing miners out there. Some historic silver miners are now gold miners but are still lumped in the silver miner basket. So, there really aren't many left to choose from. Your safest bet is probably first majestic. But there are many smaller companies that will make more percentage gains.
 

ZZZZZ

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#22
One of my favorites is Alexco Resources. AXU in US, AXR in Canada. They have one of the highest grade silver deposits in the world, plus huge lead and zinc credits. Just a few days ago they received the last permit to resume production, which should happen towards the end of this year. And they just did an oversubscribed financing, so they are good to go. Once production resumes they should be able to internally generate all the cash they need to monetize their district-scale project in The Yukon.

My "bet" is this is a prime takeover target for somebody like SSR or Pan American,

This stock is extremely volatile with 8-10% daily moves common. Not for the conservative investor.

JMHO DYODD
.
.
 

ttazzman

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#23
Leverage,

Silver goes up 10%, many silver stocks go up 20-50%.
.
.
discussing not arguing......but you can get leverage with etfs also...USLV is a 3x up...and DSLV is 3x down.......

the issue i personally have with stocks is there are a lot of underlieing research you should be doing as part of your diligence on any stock purchase.... for me the ETFs are a very simple pure silver play
 

GOLDBRIX

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#24
There really aren't very many predominantly silver producing miners out there. Some historic silver miners are now gold miners but are still lumped in the silver miner basket. So, there really aren't many left to choose from. Your safest bet is probably first majestic. But there are many smaller companies that will make more percentage gains.
As ZZZZZ states in post #22 Most Silver mined is found in mining Lead, Zinc, and as you pointed out Gold. And pretty much in that order.
The cost of mining Silver is reduced by the more base metals. OR the cost of mining the base metals in reduced due to the miner amount of silver.
I think the only known TRUE silver mine is /was in Norway or in that region of Europe. Something like 55% Ag / 45% Lead. Not by much.
 
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ttazzman

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#25
As ZZZZZ states in post #22 Most Silver mined is found in mining Lead, Zinc, and as you pointed out Gold. And pretty much in that order.
The cost of mining Silver is reduced by the more base metals. OR the cost of mining the base metals in reduced due to the miner amount of silver.
I think the only known TRUE silver mine is /was in Norway or in that region of Europe. Something like 55% Ag / 45% Lead. Not by much.
FYI
per USGS in the last year

37.7% of silver mined is a byproduct of zinc/lead mining
23.5% is a byproduct of copper mining
12.2% is a byproduct of gold mining
.5% is a byproduct of other mining
26.2% is pimary silver mining

its good to know even primary silver mines usually produce byproduct metals .....so precious metals mining is very intertwined
 

ZZZZZ

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#26
FYI
per USGS in the last year

37.7% of silver mined is a byproduct of zinc/lead mining
23.5% is a byproduct of copper mining
12.2% is a byproduct of gold mining
.5% is a byproduct of other mining
26.2% is pimary silver mining
TTAZZ, is that US production or global?
.
.
 

Uglytruth

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#28
Poke as many holes in this as possible. I need to think of this from more angles. Where are my blind spots?

* I see inflation in our near future.
* Zero % interest on safe FRN's & market if overvalued.
* A commie president will be the end of many things.
* I think a huge devaluation / inflationary time is upon us in the near term.
* My dollars will buy less.
* Silver is in the low price area at time of this posting.
* The GS ratio in the 100:1 area.
* Currently Silver is hard to get and has a high premium.
* Buy 50 oz and 100 oz bars of silver.
* Ratio comes down I retained the value of my current FRN's.
* Ratio stays the same I'm not holding FRN's.
* Gold goes up it will drag silver along. IE... Gold goes to 3K silver should go to at least $30 oz if not more.
* Is there anything better to buy than silver at this point? How about those "P" metals?
* Where else to store "wealth" be it FRN's or whatever.
 

solarion

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#30
Stagflation inbound...those small business jobs lost due to the response to the plandemic are not going to be replaced anytime soon.
I'd not be surprised to see silver drag gold higher in the near future...that's what happens during mature PM runs.
Don't love large bars, but lower premiums are better than high ones.
A modest position in FRNs is fine, just don't conflate FRNs with bankster credit. Do not trust the latter.
The communist party will have to really pull out all the stops to steal the election.
I'm stacking silver, lead, guns, FRNs, canned goods, and booze at this point...in that order.
It's difficult to say what kind of economic reset is coming, but one can be sure, it'll favor banksters, TPB, and be bad for the middle class. I believe we've entered a time when things will begin to change much more rapidly. All this talk about a "new normal" isn't just lip service imo.
 

RebelYell

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#31
Poke as many holes in this as possible. I need to think of this from more angles. Where are my blind spots?

* I see inflation in our near future.
* Zero % interest on safe FRN's & market if overvalued.
* A commie president will be the end of many things.
* I think a huge devaluation / inflationary time is upon us in the near term.
* My dollars will buy less.
* Silver is in the low price area at time of this posting.
* The GS ratio in the 100:1 area.
* Currently Silver is hard to get and has a high premium.
* Buy 50 oz and 100 oz bars of silver.
* Ratio comes down I retained the value of my current FRN's.
* Ratio stays the same I'm not holding FRN's.
* Gold goes up it will drag silver along. IE... Gold goes to 3K silver should go to at least $30 oz if not more.
* Is there anything better to buy than silver at this point? How about those "P" metals?
* Where else to store "wealth" be it FRN's or whatever.
I'm not so sure about inflation in the near future.

I think we've had a huge amount of inflation in the past and the amount of money in circulation has expanded to an astonishing degree in the last 110 years. However the fact that banks all over the world have now had to drop interest rates to zero or almost zero and purchase a large amount of assets of dubious quality is a reflection of the facts that

1. There is little demand for money and it is becoming very hard to persuade people to borrow more money into existence. I believe this is a consequence of the overwhelming amount of government intervention in the economy (itself a consequence of the fiat money system) which has made it very difficult for people to make a profit and consequently solid business opportunities are hard to find.

2. The bubble is trying very hard to pop in a deflation and it may require an astonishing amount of asset purchases simply to prevent cascading defaults and the entire system imploding in a spectacular deflationary collapse.

If this is indeed the case then I think we would see
- ongoing QE at previously unheard of levels which still does not increase the amount of money circulating
- assuming the government refuses to give up power then it will become an ever-increasing share of a shrinking economy which will become a self-reinforcing spiral of real destruction

Therefore
1. The amount and velocity of money in circulation may not grow by much or even at all.
2. The distribution of that money would likely be skewed even more heavily to the wealthy
3. The number of goods (created by the private market) available will shrink while the amount of money in existence remains approximately constant.

It's beyond me to accurately predict how this would play out, but
1. The price of goods purchased primarily by the wealthy would almost certainly rise.
2. The price of financial assets (bonds and equities) would not fall.
3. The price of essentials like food, and the commodities necessary to produce them would likely also rise.
4. The price of other consumer goods, and associated commodities, may rise or fall.
5. The price of capital goods and associated commodities may rise or fall, but will underperform "other consumer goods".
6. Gold and the $ will likely outperform most other currencies.
7. Gold may rise or fall in $ terms. The ratio of gold to $ will remain roughly constant so gold will rise as a result of very low interest rates (negative interest rates in the US would be a huge boost) or if and when faith in the $ really starts to collapse and that becomes accepted common knowledge.
8. Silver will rise or fall depending on
(i) the extent to which people purchase it as a money substitute
(ii) the extent to which people purchase it as an industrial commodity
(iii) the supply dynamics of silver production

(iii) is I think favorable. (i) is somewhat favorable. (ii) is unfavorable.

At some point of course the level of pain all this will cause will result in social upheaval which will likely destroy the government and the $. And at that point gold will shine, and perhaps silver too. While I would tend to agree that silver has more potential upside (because of the potential issues with supply), I think it also has more downside and view gold as much safer than silver. I don't buy into the 16:1 price ratio being some sort of natural ratio to which silver will return.

I have about a 28:2:5 ratio of gold : silver : PM equities, although WPM is about half my equities allocation which probably skews me a bit more to silver.

I also think crypto has upside. I don't own any because it doesn't make sense to me, but it does appear to make sense to others - and it is such a tiny market that it could really explode. I am thinking about putting a tiny amount (perhaps 25% of my silver allocation) into bitcoin.
 

Strawboss

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#32
The steadily declining velocity of money suggests deflation - not inflation
 

EO 11110

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#33
the denominator in the velocity equation is the culprit. mad money printing = rapidly increasing denominator

all other measures of money turnover stand in defiance of the velocity equation

the old measure of velocity is no longer a useful tool in the never ending QE world. put on ignore

one example -- retail sales

1593801547649.png
 

RebelYell

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#34
the denominator in the velocity equation is the culprit. mad money printing = rapidly increasing denominator

all other measures of money turnover stand in defiance of the velocity equation

the old measure of velocity is no longer a useful tool in the never ending QE world. put on ignore

one example -- retail sales

View attachment 171415
I'm not abolsutely certain what you are saying here. Could you clarify?

The way I look at the problem is in terms of money supply and what it is, or isn't, doing. In other words this has more to do with what "money supply" actually is (who really knows after all since this is always skipped over with a note indicating that it's not simple - haha) and whether "mad money printing" is actually increasing the money supply at all.
 

Unca Walt

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#35
Reb -- When EO referred to "mad money printing" <-- That is QE. They just keep adding zeroes to the deficit by transferring "money" (eg: little dots in a different column) to keep the dying motor running.
 

GOLDBRIX

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#36
Best way to bet on silver?

No brainer: Get it and hold it. Junk.
I changed it for you: "No brainer: Get it and hold it, and Junk. ( In case you got to make change).
 

RebelYell

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#37
Reb -- When EO referred to "mad money printing" <-- That is QE. They just keep adding zeroes to the deficit by transferring "money" (eg: little dots in a different column) to keep the dying motor running.
Yes I know what he meant by mad money printing. But I wasn't quite sure what he was trying to show with his chart.

My point - what I was trying to get at higher up the thread - is that I'm not sure that QE is actually increasing the money supply any more no matter how much of it they do. Nobody really knows what constitutes "the money supply" any more (if they ever did) - and maybe the QE is only enough, or not even enough, to stop it actually contracting. And zero/negative rates is the canary in the coal mine which tells you this is what is happening.
 

solarion

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#38
1593811213731.png


Velocity of Money = GDP ÷ Money Supply

Shadowstats still calculates the broadest measure of money supply(M3) the way the fed used to do. The increase in money supply is intended to offset the massive deflationary forces, though clearly it's not a sharp instrument. I believe we'll see continued inflation in the things people need and deflation in the things people want. Food & energy up, cheap phones & teevees down. The lost jobs won't be back anytime soon and demand will flatten...IOW stagflation.
 

Irons

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#39
The best way to deal with silver is to buy Gold instead.


.
 

RebelYell

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#40
View attachment 171427

Velocity of Money = GDP ÷ Money Supply

Shadowstats still calculates the broadest measure of money supply(M3) the way the fed used to do. The increase in money supply is intended to offset the massive deflationary forces, though clearly it's not a sharp instrument. I believe we'll see continued inflation in the things people need and deflation in the things people want. Food & energy up, cheap phones & teevees down. The lost jobs won't be back anytime soon and demand will flatten...IOW stagflation.
The question is whether, in our current times following all the regulatory changes and all the private mechanisms for money creation which did not exist fifty years ago, whether M3 remains a useful measure which tells us much about the "real" money supply at all.

I'm beginning to think it doesn't.