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Bob Moriarty Still Thinks The Miners Have Room To Run And Why He Likes Platinum

Scorpio

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#1
Bob Moriarty Still Thinks The Miners Have Room To Run And Why He Likes Platinum

by Ceo Technician | posted in: Bob Moriarty, Charts, Gold, Gold Stocks, Platinum | 0

We had the opportunity to catch up with 321gold founder Bob Moriarty and pick his brain on where we are at in the mining cycle, what his favorite investments are right now, and several timely macro topics including the Turkish failed coup. As usual Bob didn’t pull any punches and got right to the point…



CEO Technician: We are in what is probably the strongest 5+ month stretch in history for the gold mining sector. Where are we at now and is the sector a bit overheated at this point?

Bob Moriarty: It’s absolutely overheated but it could continue to be overheated for a long time. I would not have any problem whatsoever with a pullback, a correction is normal and healthy and it would be a good thing. We are in a long term bull market that began in 2000 and it’s going to go a lot higher.

The miners were absolutely crushed from 2011-2015 and of course we have seen phenomenal gains since January but they will go a lot higher over the next 1-2 years.

CEO Technician: So we’re not in the crazy euphoria stage yet? There is still substantial upside available to investors from current levels?

Bob Moriarty: We’re a long way from a crazy euphoria. There’s a lot of hot money and there are a lot of weak hands who have jumped into both silver and gold but the fact is that silver is still cheap, gold is still cheap, platinum is cheap, and the miners are cheap. Trying to catch every squiggle on the chart is a difficult thing to do and we don’t know when a correction will take place.

From a geopolitical point of view there’s never been a more important time to be invested in real assets.

CEO Technician: What is your take on BREXIT? Will the UK actually leave the EU or is this one of those things that will get dragged out indefinitely by politicians and never actually happen? How does an actual BREXIT affect precious metals and mining shares?

Bob Moriarty: First of all BREXIT is not the disease, it’s a symptom. The EU is utterly dysfunctional. There are 12,643 laws regarding milk. There are 50 pages of documents telling you how much water to use in the toilet to flush it. The EU is a bunch of unelected bureaucrats, nobody knows who they are. They weren’t elected and they are not responsible. Throughout the EU people are saying “Hey, wait a minute. These people are making decisions that affect us and we don’t have any part of it.” The EU is dysfunctional.

The Italian banks are bankrupt, they are talking about a US$350 billion injection into the Italian banking system to keep it afloat which is totally illegal according to the EU regulations. If the Italian banks go under they’re going to take Deutsche Bank down too and if Deutsche Bank goes under with its $65-$75 trillion in derivatives then the entire global banking system will collapse.

CEO Technician: Surely that scenario will not be allowed to occur, the central banks will come in and bail out the banks and firewall the bad assets right?

Bob Moriarty: That’s what they’re trying to do but they’re running out of ammunition. Rates are already at zero, the central banks of the world are all bankrupt, and the world is awash in debt. The best scenario is for the most heavily indebted countries (Japan, U.S., Italy, etc.) to go bankrupt. When they fail (not if) you want to be holding real assets and that’s what gold and silver are.

Scott Armstrong: What do you still find attractive in the market and where should people be deploying capital?

Bob Moriarty: Just about anything you can find out there in the mining & resource space is better than Greek or French bonds. The problem with me naming individual stocks is that I will be sure to forget or not mention many companies that are top notch and well deserving of praise. I could give you 5 great stocks but there would be 45 other great stocks I would leave out.

Scott Armstrong: Tell us about clean energy and which areas in the clean energy arena investors should be focused on?

Bob Moriarty: Graphite is interesting and there are some interesting applications for it in clean energy. The lithium battery for example requires 9 times more graphite than it does lithium.

I fear that the lithium sector will become like uranium, nickel, gold, the Nasdaq etc. There will be $50 billion crowding into a $5 billion sector and we will see an enormous bubble. That being said I am a big believer in clean energy and there is one company which I will mention, Eguana Technologies (TSX-V: EGT), which makes the control unit that goes in between solar panels and batteries. The high capacity batteries for solar panels are actually decreasing in price faster than solar panels are and Eguana makes the best control units in the world. They signed a whole bunch of deals with companies around the world to manufacture their products; Eguana’s products are key in transmitting energy from the solar panels into the energy grid.

CEO Technician: I’m going to push you a little more Bob, among the gold miners there must be a couple of names that really stand out to you?

Bob Moriarty: The safest investments are in the mid-tier gold miners, the guys that are in production and which are marginally profitable even at lower gold and silver prices (US$1100 gold, US$13 silver). Silvercorp (SVM.TO) would be a really good example – we mentioned it back in January when it was trading down near C$.60 and it has gone up nearly 600% since then.



SVM.TO (Daily)



Agnico Eagle (AEM) has always been one of my favorite companies, they have an excellent management team and they picked up some great projects when times were poor in the sector.

I also just got off the phone with the former president of Cayden Resources, Ivan Bebek, and we spoke about his new company Auryn Resources (AUG.V). Auryn has a project in Nunavut (Canada) and another project in Peru, Ivan is a winner and this is a stock that I see going to double or triple digits.
AUG.V (Daily)



Incredibly impressive chart with textbook bullish price action (stair-step higher with high volume rallies and low volume pullbacks)

CEO Technician: The macro/geopolitical backdrop appears to be treacherous at best, meanwhile, the precious metals sector has seen huge gains during the first half of the year. How does an investor avoid doing something stupid here? What are the pitfalls we should watch out for?

Bob Moriarty: Well first of all I am never a fan of whatever is popular. Do not follow the crowds. I wrote a book a few months ago called Nobody Knows Anything that went to #1 in its category on Amazon. You need to avoid crowds, you need to avoid gurus, you need to avoid seeking out people who will tell you what you want to hear. I am not an expert, i’m just a guy who reads 100 articles a day and talks to company management.

Scott Armstrong: What are your thoughts on Africa from an investment perspective? It’s hard to argue that Africa is not the final investment frontier, particularly for resource investors.

Bob Moriarty: Africa has a corruption problem. I prefer projects in safer jurisdictions such as Canada, Peru, Australia, etc. The United States has gone a bit nuts and I fear greatly the election this fall. By and large I shy away from Africa because there are simply better places to invest. There will sometimes be specific situations where I know the management and I know what they’ve got.

CEO Technician: If your mother handed you $1 million to invest right now what would you do with it? She can’t lose it but she also needs it to grow.

Bob Moriarty: I would put half into platinum and half into silver and put it under the bed. Gold is expensive right now relative to platinum and silver.



Platinum/Gold Ratio (30 year chart)



CEO Technician: Are there any platinum miners you would recommend?

Bob Moriarty: Platinum Group Metals (PLG.TO) has some really high grade platinum mines in South Africa, even though I don’t really care for South Africa PLG is going to a high degree of mechanization in mining and their mines are low cost. Platinum is a real sleeper right now and if platinum goes up PLG shares should do very well.



PLG.TO (Daily)



CEO Technician: We have seen what Jeffrey Gundlach calls a “mass psychosis” this year with more than $10 trillion in bonds moving into negative yield territory. What is this negative yield mass psychosis telling us?

Bob Moriarty: Interest rates are a barometer telling us that there are some scary things coming. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are real assets in a world with more than $200 trillion in paper assets (debt). I think we will see some scary things very soon and real assets will rise to the top while paper assets will be just that, paper.

CEO Technician: Friday evening there was what appears to have been a coup attempt in Turkey. You’ve been following Turkey closely and have written extensively about the Syria/Turkey powder keg. What’s your take on this latest development?

Bob Moriarty: Over the weekend we watched a pseudo coup in Turkey where the captured soldiers supposedly involved in the attempt had been told it was only an exercise. “Rebel” fighter aircraft could have attacked Erdogan’s aircraft but didn’t and 2,750 judges were detained after the fact as being part of the coup attempt. It wouldn’t even be possible to write down 2,750 names in a single day so obviously the purge list was prepared in advance. In addition Erdogan arrested 103 senior generals and admirals and removed 8,777 officials and police officers from the Interior Ministry. Either Turkey has the most inept military in history or Erdogan has launched yet another false flag operation.

The Nato air base at Incirlik provides storage for an estimated 50 B61 nuclear bombs. If Erdogan seizes them Turkey will become the 2nd nuclear armed nation in the Middle East and we march one step closer to World War III.



We would like to thank Bob for his time and his investing insights. Eguana was a new name for us and definitely an interesting investment idea worth following. I also think it’s more important than ever for investors to avoid gurus and to filter their information sources. Finally, we stood up and took notice when the founder of 321gold favors platinum over gold because it is cheap on a relative basis.



DISCLAIMER: The work included in this article is based on SEDAR filings, current events, interviews, and corporate press releases. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. This publication contains forward-looking statements, including but not limited to comments regarding predictions and projections. Forward-looking statements address future events and conditions and therefore involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements. The views expressed in this publication and on the EnergyandGold website do not necessarily reflect the views of Energy and Gold Publishing LTD, publisher of EnergyandGold.com. This publication is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always thoroughly do your own due diligence and talk to a licensed investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Junior resource companies can easily lose 100% of their value so read company profiles on www.SEDAR.com for important risk disclosures. It’s your money and your responsibility.

http://energyandgold.com/2016/07/19...s-have-room-to-run-and-why-he-likes-platinum/
 

Scorpio

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#2
for the record, I agree

after we get thru a decent correction, the next leg should be a solid one
 

Ebie

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#4
Mining stocks are the same price as when gold was $600 per oz. Something is wrong, and, I don't trust them. Naked shorting...
 
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louky

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Platinum has to make one more bottom before reversing the trend. Look at gold and silver charts for confirmation of this.

Platinum will bounce off that trend line lower, then on it's next move crossover, retest again and finally take off.

Those moves will probably take a couple of years to complete.

Don't get fooled by platinum, only buy again once you see it bounce lower @ 1200ish. That low will be your last "sale" price below the trend line.
 
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Scorpio

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#6
Don't think 1370 to 1310 is enough for the next move?
I don't ???? Would prefer to see a paint of 1274 or even a 1240 worst case

not saying I am right, just don't see that being a launch platform is all

I would like to see us pull back and base a bit before moving higher
 

Chester-Copperpot

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#7


Platinum has to make one more bottom before reversing the trend. Look at gold and silver charts for confirmation of this.

Platinum will bounce off that trend line lower, then on it's next move crossover, retest again and finally take off.

Those moves will probably take a couple of years to complete.

Don't get fooled by platinum, only buy again once you see it bounce lower @ 1200ish. That low will be your last "sale" price below the trend line.
How far do you see Platinum falling? Think we see $900 again?
 

nickndfl

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#8
Buy on weakness and follow the trends. I missed adding today, but will really look hard next week.
 

louky

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How far do you see Platinum falling? Think we see $900 again?
If you see it start going lower off that trend line around 1200 likeI believe it will, then yes. Gold for comparison is already out and has retested, which means buy






 
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Zed

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#11
Trendlines should use closes IMO.

Strong breaks need not retest at all. The nature of the break is reflective of where the market is. After a tentative 'normal' accumulation phase retests are common and normal. Gold has not been through that sort of bottom, it is not rising nervously from relative disinterest. It is reacting to abusive interest... the reaction could get violent.

The trick with T/A is often matching the T/A techique with the market. Bull and bear markets require differing approaches. Golds special interests demand an altered perspective as well. IMO we are in a bull now, all the nasty surprises will be on the upside until this move is half to three quarters done. Get in, belt on, shut up and enjoy the ride... as a mate once said to me as I got in his Mk1 Escort rally machine. He scared the poop outta me, but he knew what his was doing. Vivid memory! LOL

Another quote from that day ---> under 100mph you can do anything with a car on dirt.

Apparently it gets tricky over 100mph!!!!! feck me.

Here is to vivid memories of a new gold bull!

2c

FWIW.
 

louky

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#12
A throwback isn't necessary, but in this scenario it does mean gold isn't going back below 1308



Trendlines should use closes IMO.
I don't think today's color by numbers flag painting changed anything
 
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louky

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#13
for anyone who's ever wondered how people pull predictions out of their butt

peak of the bottom to neckline 1100 - 1300 = 200

neckline to price target 1300 + 200 =1500 gold



Magic 8 ball says Wile e coyote moment January
 
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Zed

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#15
for anyone who's ever wondered how people pull predictions out of their butt

peak of the bottom to neckline 1100 - 1300 = 200

neckline to price target 1300 + 200 =1500 gold



Magic 8 ball says Wile e coyote moment January
+ look @ a chart and see how that works with the nearest resistance level. The weekly has 1487 and more recently the mid 1500's @ ~ 1560.... so take your pick on how bullish you are.
 

Scorpio

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#16
just a fyi guys,

had a dealer call me yesterday in the market for sellers,

wondering if I needed any help with anything? I stated 'you guys been busy?'

his answer was 'yeah, with sellers, they have been selling since this most recent runup. they saw an opportunity and are using it' ............paraphrased as I don't remember the exact quote.

to those people I ask, after a little bounce like we have had you are bailing? Just when things are getting interesting and you are bailing?

and selling physical at that? Sure, sell your stocks whatever paper you have to lock in profits, I get that. But your physical?

Personally, I don't believe in buying and selling physical. You buy it for wealth preservation, then you hang on to it.
 

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+ look @ a chart and see how that works with the nearest resistance level. The weekly has 1487 and more recently the mid 1500's @ ~ 1560.... so take your pick on how bullish you are.
Agreed. I was just using round figures for simplicity, but if I try to get more precise, the price target is around 1534
 

louky

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#19
When it gets in the ball park, I'm out like a thief in the night.

Magic 8 ball says miners get buried by 2017
 

Scorpio

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#20
I plan to keep all my physical, but have someone else pay for it.
THAT IS HOW YOU PLAY THE GAME!!!

Outstanding that you totally get it,

The casino is rigged, and knowing that, there are some things you can do to slip yourself some aces.
 

louky

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#22
I sure as hell don't know, but Brett Farve just called and said the out look for January is pain

 

louky

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#23
Platinum is terrifying. Called ghost busters, but the receptionist said they are retired and tried to send me a bunch of women.






 
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louky

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#26
A throwback isn't necessary, but in this scenario it does mean gold isn't going back below 1308
The deck is stacked against magic 8 ball this week.....

James Turk continues: “First, on Tuesday option expiry begins on the Comex, followed later in the week by the expiry of over-the-counter options. We’ve seen time and again how the shorts, in cahoots with central planners, drive the gold price as low as they possibly can during expiry. Their objective is to get as many call options expiring worthless so that the shorts do not have to deliver on these paper promises.
Banks Pushing Gold Below $1,300 Tomorrow (7/26) Because Of Options And…
It’s worth noting that there is a huge open interest in options with a $1,300 strike price, so that is the obvious target. The shorts and the central planners will no doubt do what they can to pressure the gold price toward $1,300, or perhaps even under that level if they can get away with it. If they do, the calls at that $1,300 price end up worthless by expiring out of the money. We saw some of that downside pressure earlier today in Asia and Europe, though the metals later bounced back a bit off the lows of the day.
Also Because FOMC Starts Tuesday And…
Second, the 2-day FOMC meeting begins Tuesday. Then, after the meeting concludes on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Yellen is holding a news conference. Gold rarely gets an opportunity to rally on these occasions.
Also Because Speculators In Gold & Silver Are Vulnerable
Finally, Friday is month-end, so there may be book squaring by traders. Given the large open interest in both gold and silver, it is obvious that a lot of specs have jumped in and bought this month. The odds therefore favor downside pressure as traders window-dress by dumping losing long positions before preparing their books for month-end reporting.
But Use Manufactured Weakness To Accumulate Physical Gold & Silver
As a consequence, we may need to wait until next week for gold and silver to resume their uptrend. It also means that this week is likely to be a good one for buying both gold and silver, particularly if there is any weakness providing the opportunity to pick up some bargains.


But what if the metals aren’t weak this week? Any price strength this week, especially in view of the headwinds the precious metals are facing, will be significant. Signs of strength – like holding support or rising prices – are always significant, but more so this week because of well-established historical trading patterns that suggest gold and silver prices will be weak over the next several days.

Any real show of strength in the face of expected price weakness means a significant change is in the wind. It will be evidence that the central planners are losing their grip on precious metal prices. So strength this week will provide more meaningful evidence that the 5-year correction in precious metal prices is indeed over, which is already clear given what gold and silver have done so far this year.
 

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#30
Platinum is way, way behind silver and also behind gold in the moves. So it needed to sprint and catch up

I'm no magic 8 ball, but my guess is it continues up, then strike doesn't happen and it heads down for the third bottom it needs to make. On my original post in the other thread, it could run to 1250 or so before heading down with gold and silver to start 2017
 

louky

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#32
Platinum is way, way behind silver and also behind gold in the moves. So it needed to sprint and catch up
Just looked at the platinum chart to check out it's recent move. Where each metal stands can be seen for ease of display on the SLW chart. They've all followed this same path. Here's what I meant by platinum needing to catch up.



 
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louky

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#33
Will be interesting to see if platinum keeps bumping on that trendline I posted earlier to paint the same flag the other metals have at the same juncture



 
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louky

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#36
I plan to keep all my physical, but have someone else pay for it. Getting there from a starting point of ABX purchased at 6 bucks and sold around 19
Forgot about this post. I chose to sell ABX in May around 19 because it gave me two chances to move to safety and still cover. Rainbows

louky May 3 said:
Took mine as well....(ABX profits)
 

louky

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#37
Needed another kick start?

UPDATE 1-South Africa's AMCU, platinum mines fail to reach wage deal

Monday September 05, 2016 12:35
(Adds details)

JOHANNESBURG, Sept 5 (Reuters) - South Africa's biggestplatinum mine-workers' union and the industry have failed toreach a deal on workers' pay, the union said on Monday, raisingthe prospect of industrial action in the world's top producer ofthe white metal.

The Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union(AMCU), which led a crippling five-month strike in 2014, hasbeen in talks with Anglo American Platinum , ImpalaPlatinum and Lonmin since July this year.

"To date no progress has been made," AMCU said in astatement. "The union has therefore officially declareddeadlocks with all three companies."

The companies were not immediately available to comment.

AMCU said it would next week separately meet Impala andAnglo American Platinum to seek a resolution. No meeting withLonmin has been confirmed, it said.

Declaration of a dispute is the first step towards launchinga strike and if next week's meetings fail to find a solution,the dispute would be referred to a government mediator in a bidto break the impasse, failing which AMCU could give the industrya 48-hour notice to down tools.

AMCU is demanding pay hikes of more than 50 percent for itslowest pad members, who home take around 8,000 rand ($557) amonth, and a 15 percent hike for its higher paid members.

The demands are well above inflation at 6 percent.

South Africa has the biggest and most lucrative platinumreserves but labour unrest and regulatory uncertainty havedampened investors' enthusiasm.

The strike in 2014 hit the industry hard, costing it morethan 20 billion rand in lost output and forcing the companies tocut jobs, shed mines and in some cases seek cash from investors.

($1 = 14.3602 rand)


(Reporting by Tiisetso Motsoeneng and Zandi Shabalala inLondon; Editing by Ed Cropley and Mark Potter)