Buck's Gin Bottling - Chart Analysis

[Silver Buck]

Buck Analysis

Otherwise known by me as 'Gin Bottling'.

Disclaimer: I am simply doing this for analysis practice and make no decisions on my Gin Bottle charts.

Disclaimer pt 2: Yes, many a times I am under the influence of Gin (or some other liquor) while doing these up.

I became interesting in TA about 3 years ago, and thought it was a bunch of hooey and confirmation bias, but it looked like a pretty darn interesting thing to do. Later on, a couple of chartists tried teaching a few of us about the finer art of charting (Zed and SAGI) and another (Hawkeye) always made it look fun. However, I quickly discovered that it was way over my head. But, not to be daunted, I began doing some TA studies while doing general market research.

The basic 'facts' I have discovered along the way:

Speculators will move the price.
Price will move on sentiment.
Price will move both up and down.
Speculators will make their decisions on TA.

So, based on these 'facts', I delved ever deeper into TA and basic market analysis to see just how far the Gin Bottle will go down the Rabbit Hole. What I've found has been interesting and I'd like to share a bit of what I do and how I do it.

Re-Disclaimer: I'm just a hack and do NOT make any financial decisions based on my charts. I am merely learning the ropes and the tools of the art. I already have my long term position and may use my charts for entry and exit timing some day when I decide to expand my holdings.

Feedback and questions are welcome (and so is a peanut gallery).

Now, on with the Bin Gottling.

Addendum: I was going to prepare a series of posts to carry me through the thread (at least the first two weeks) but life has a way of grinding me down (in a great way, but that's a story for another thread, another time).

 

[Silver Buck]

The Tools

I searched around a bit for a free service and came up with:

Commodit Charts

I have no idea how it rates with other sites, but this one gave me what I needed and nothing else. If anyone have alternate sites I'll be happy to check them out.

For drawing lines I use Seashore, a free photoshop program for Macs. I am looking for alternatives.

For fuel I typically use

 

[andial]

Thanks Silver Buck. I'll be no help though, i'm always way partial to the upside when I look at a Gold or Silver chart.

 

[Silver Buck]

Over the course of the past few years, I've learned to look for grossly overbought and oversold situations. Why try to slice the pie thinly and take a chance of getting cut?

Go for the big chunks.

So, after studying things a bit, I've come up with some parameters (even though I don't understand them thoroughly enough, just that they work) to give me some signals. The best set I've come across is this RSI that when it hits 80 we are definitely overbought, and when it hits 20 it we are definitely oversold.

It doesn't matter if you, or I, think it is 'right', or 'valid'. It just matters that the players, the speculators, are basing their decisions upon specific 'Futures' months (just look at the volume to determine which Expiry months are important).

Anyway, here's a recent Chart that will show you how the trading only touches the extremes and that trading will happen within them (many more chartst to follow).

I'll show you how I built my lines up from a few weeks ago to show some 'tipping points' that developed.

In the mean time, my Gin Glass is only half as full as what it should be.

 

[Silver Buck]

Thanks Silver Buck. I'll be no help though, i'm always way partial to the upside when I look at a Gold or Silver chart.

I would love to do some Confirmation Biasing with you Brother Andial, but we 'must' leaf emotion out of the equation.

Once an RSI of 20 has been established, I do the 'vaiting and vatching' for a bit. If/When the RSI nears 80, I become very excited and look for a box of tissues.

It's time to pour some Gin and do some charting.

So, what I do is draw my horizontal:

My bottoms have been below the Bollinger Bands for some time, the Moving Averages have been below 0, and most importantly the RSI is at 20.

 

[Silver Buck]

Once the RSI tickles 80, I figure it is a great time to think about dumping, and charting.

What I do notice is that the Moving Average/Divergence is just now getting above 0, so maybe there is more room to run? I dunno, but if profit is what you are looking for, now would not be a bad time to take some.

 

[Silver Buck]

Early on, I heard that 'The Trend Is Your Friend', so I look for a set of three that will establish the Speculators/Players/Manipulators trend. Remember, they are playing their game, not yours, or the one you want them to play.

I built my Bin Gottle Charts about a month ago off of this simple up trend line.

 

[Silver Buck]

I then simply extended that Primary Trend line out some weeks ago (using today's chart since I'm rebuilding, but those who watched my charts grow should be able to relate).

 

[Silver Buck]

Now, taking that exact same Primary Trend Line and looking for an Upper Rail, you'll see that it lays beautifully atop the near-time candles:

 

[smooth]

Look forward to what the gin bottle has to say Silver Buck. Like the commentary.:thumbs_up:

 

[Silver Buck]

Once we actually reached an 80 RSI, it didn't matter that the price was not above the blue Bolling Band Field, our Moving Day Averages were above 1 and the price was due to come down.

 

[Silver Buck]

After the top, I looked for a down trend. Opposite of the uptrend, where I went off of the bottoms of candles, I went off of the tops.

 

[Silver Buck]

I then simply extended the Top Rail.

 

[Silver Buck]

Just like I did for the Uptrend, I simply copy and drop the Downtrend line to confirm and project the Trend.

 

[Silver Buck]

Now, to review what I posted a few weeks ago and to show I'm merely not doing a bit of Confirmation Bias (and to lead into the RSI Trend - which I only recently noticed):

 

[Silver Buck]

Anyway, since the Bottom Rail had been breached, I decided to look for another Bottom Rail.

The phrase 'New High/Low' (meaning a new higher price of Silver's low had been established 'recently') has always stuck in my mind as a Trader's Signal/Stop.

So, I established this simple Orange Trendling:

 

[Silver Buck]

Here's that New Bottom Rail (otherwise known as 'Support') extended:

 

[Silver Buck]

Now, something I always look for is Confirmation, especially when it comes to Human Behavior (that 'pattern of behavior' that we all have both individually and as a collective).

Notice the previous downtrend:

It told us what was to come...

 

[Silver Buck]

Any, getting back to basics, I tend to ignore and put the lotion and tissues away when the RSI (according to my stumbled upon parameters) when it is tracking between 40 and 60.

 

[Silver Buck]

Now, let's take a look and see if the RSI Downtrend can predict Human Behavior.

This is what I started with (look closely at the RSI pruple (yes, a young lass insists I spell it that way):

 

[Silver Buck]

Now, once we extend that RSI Downtrend (Human Behavior/Anticipation/'I just gotta pull the Trigger!) to my 'break points' and extend them up...

 

[Silver Buck]

Just a few charts to show what the Gin Bottle may have been thinking...

 

[Silver Buck]

The Bottle was looking at $20.50 as 'doable'...

 

[Silver Buck]

This was looking 'Quite Interesting' (and you had to be quick on the trigger) to actually hold as a low until the Fed declared 'No Tapering!'

 

[Silver Buck]

Anyway....

My glass is only a tenth of what should be in it...

And with an RSI tracking bewtween 40 and 60, times may be a bit 'boring' for this quarter...

Feedback, rebuttals, recommendations, and what not are encouraged.

Especially from the Peanut Gallery.

Thanks for following along. I simply wanted to share some of what I've picked up along the way these past few years.

 

[BeefJerky]

Yes folks, it really is this simple.

Good job Silver Buck. Love the creativity you use to get the point across.

 

[savvydon]

Anyway....

My glass is only a tenth of what should be in it...

And with an RSI tracking bewtween 40 and 60, times may be a bit 'boring' for this quarter...

Feedback, rebuttals, recommendations, and what not are encouraged.

Especially from the Peanut Gallery.

Thanks for following along. I simply wanted to share some of what I've picked up along the way these past few years.

Good chit, I'll be looking forward to future installments. I think a really big part of using TA is developing your own system and being disciplined about both implementing it and listening to what it is saying. Very much enjoyed the step by step tutorial and transparency allowing a view into the gin bottle.

 

[Silver Buck]

Busy Buck has been quite busy, but here's a simple quick look through the Gin Bottle.

RSI has been treading 40 for a bit now.

Extending out that orange rail...

We shall see if the price treads that rail before moving up.

I should do a weekly, will try to get one done later.

 

[stonedywankanobe]

Nice work Buck...I'm jealous. :thumbs_up:



Does tha bottle think we could see 23.02 by the 15th of November?:cheers:

 

[Silver Buck]

Nice work Buck...I'm jealous. :thumbs_up:



Does tha bottle think we could see 23.02 by the 15th of November?:cheers:

I figured out a bit too late what you were going on about.

Here's a quick shot of Gin.

Today may be the near term high. We shall see how the price closes these next 2 days to see which way the trend blows.

It's hard to get a solid feel when the RSI is drifting between 40 and 60.

 

[Silver Buck]

Holy Gin Bottle! My love for Commodity Charts is, at least on the surface, is giving me a bit of 'token love'.

"Thank you for being a frequent visitor to CommodityCharts.com. To continue using the web site, we ask that complete a simple, free registration.

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And as a thank-you bonus for being a loyal CommodityCharts.com visitor, we will email you a free eBook to add to your trading arsenal.

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I have no idea what this may entail, but it does give me a warm fuzzy. And free junk is still free.

However, I am always nervous about giving out any type of info....

Frick it, gonna sign up.

Addendum: Meh - giving me fits as far as getting back to where I want. Frickin' bullchit.

Addedum pt 2: It seems OK, for now...

 

[Silver Buck]

A couple of basic reasons why I think Silver is going to continue to trend down (sorry Brother Andial...)

 

[Silver Buck]

Things that have my attention, and how I build up my Bin Gottle charts (well, tonight it's Scotch...)

You see how the price dropped well below the Bollinger Band? Looks like a time to buy, but the Moving Averages were still trending down heavily and the RSI hadn't dropped below 40 (after hitting that nose-bleeding high of 80).

 

[andial]

Trending down? Ok i'm partial but don't those Bollinger bands (blue field) have to widen up a bit here to the upside?

 

[Silver Buck]

So, convinced that we have a downtrend, I look to build off of that 'ping down' with a 'bottom of 3' showing me the way.

 

[Silver Buck]

I then simply extend that bottom downtrend line so I can copy/paste the line throughout the chart.

 

[Silver Buck]

I look for 'big days' in which to drop those lines on, as well as a series (typically at least 3) of tops or bottoms in which to drop onto (or 'channel looking price ranges').

 

[Silver Buck]

Now, where is that 'Bottom Rail of Resistance'? Looking left I find where the bottom sentiment is and start from there.

(brb - glass is empty...)

 

[Silver Buck]

OK! Now... where was I?

Oh yeah, trending that BRoR...

It has been fascinating watching human behavior and trends unfold in a chart.

Now, the Big Question: Are the traders tired of trending sideways/down? Or are we ready for some legging up?

I'm of the opinion that the trend will still continue down (albeit perhaps at a shallow slop). I'm looking for that sub-40 RSI and a Divergence of sub-0 (still not sure how to look at the Divergence - other than as a mid-term trend setter).

 

[Silver Buck]

Trending down? Ok i'm partial but don't those Bollinger bands (blue field) have to widen up a bit here to the upside?

I look at the Bands' width as a sign of whether or not the price is ready to move more drastically than of late. Which direction is immaterial as far as the width of the Band goes.

I do look at whether the price has been closing outside of the band, but do not place great emphasis on that. It's more of a symptom than a cause (to my newbish alcohol-sodden mind).

That RSI is far more important to me as far as sentiment goes.