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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 12 14 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Dec 14, 2018
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 12 14 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Dec 14, 2018
 

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WEEK AHEAD COMMODITY REPORT: 17-21, December 2018: Gold & Crude Oil Price Forecast
TheGoldAndSilverClub


Published on Dec 15, 2018
JOIN THE LIVE TRADING ROOM HERE ▶ http://www.jointhelivetradingroom.com/
▶ To Receive LIVE Trade Alerts, Mentorship & Expert Insights For Profitable Commodity Trading.

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The Gold & Silver Club is an international Commodities Trading, Research and Advisory Group specializing in the Metals, Energy and Agriculture markets.
Learn More ▶ https://www.thegoldandsilverclub.com/
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⇧ US Debts, Liabilities: Bad State of Affairs | Professor Steve Hanke
SilverDoctors


Published on Dec 14, 2018
FREE SHIPPING +$99 orders, Xmas Deals: https://SDBullion.com/deal
PODCAST: http://www.SilverDoctors.com/precious...

Steve H. Hanke, a Professor of Applied Economics and Co-Director of The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise. He served on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, has been an adviser to 5 foreign heads of state and 5 foreign cabinet ministers, and held a cabinet-level rank in both Lithuania and Montenegro.

Professor Hanke is also a columnist at Forbes Magazine, a well-known currency reformer, and a currency and commodity trader.

Silver and gold prices were flat to slightly down for the week.

Silver spot price is closing the week down a few cents at around $14.64 oz while gold spot price is ending at $1240 US dollars per troy ounce. Ten dollars less per ounce than last week's closing price.

Concerning some recent discussions on our show, the palladium spot price is closing this week higher than gold's spot price at $1251 per troy ounce.

The last time palladium prices were higher than gold was from the year 2000 to the year 2002, during the Russian palladium supply, short squeeze. That episode saw the then palladium price high reach 4Xs the then spot price of gold.

Is something similar to that, about repeat?

SHOW NOTEs, CHARTs, Guest Info, & Backlinks:
https://SDBullion.com/blog/us-debt-li...
 

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Naked Capitalism Links 12/15
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/12/links-12-15-18.html

TBP - 10 Weekend Reads 12/15
https://ritholtz.com/2018/12/weekend-reads-349/

SA - Market News Live Feed 12/15
https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

TCS - Book Bits | 15 December 2018
http://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-15-december-2018/

AR - Saturday links: covering niches 12/15
http://abnormalreturns.com/2018/12/15/saturday-links-covering-niches/

FC - EUR/USD: In A Narrow Range But Next Week’s FOMC Could Be A Game-Changer – MUFG 12/15
https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd...utm_campaign=Feed:+ForexCrunch+(Forex+Crunch)
 

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Don't Underestimate These 3 Things in 2019
Silver Fortune


Published on Dec 15, 2018
3 factors that could alter the course of the economy in 2019.

Support Silver Fortune, shop at SD Bullion! Free shipping over $99, and a 1 oz. round for new customers! sdbullion.com/sf
(I am compensated by SD Bullion when the at spot round is claimed by new customers)

Support Silver Fortune through Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/silverfortune

International Silver Syndicate poured silver, featuring various popular YouTube silver and gold channels, including your's truly: https://mkbarzandbullion.com/pages/in...
(MK Barz does offer a small share of profits to channels featured on the ISS bars)

Any content within this video or any other video by the Silver Fortune channel is merely one man's opinion, commentary, and analysis, or actual information obtained from elsewhere, and should not be constituted as legal, investment, or financial advice. Make your own financial decisions, or consult a professional if you'd prefer to go that route. The Silver Fortune channel disclaims any liability for legal, financial, or investment decisions made.
 

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How Faux Capitalism Works In America


by Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/15/2018 - 11:09


Authored by EconomicPrism's MN Gordon, annotated by Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum,

Stars in the Night Sky
The U.S. stock market’s recent zigs and zags have provoked much squawking and screeching. Wall Street pros, private money managers, and Millennial index fund enthusiasts all find themselves on the wrong side of the market’s swift movements. Even the best and brightest can’t escape President Trump’s tweet precipitated short squeezes.



The Donald mercilessly hits the shorts with a well-timed tweet. But as it turns out, this market is in a really bad mood at the moment. [PT]
The short-term significance of the DJIA’s 8 percent decline since early-October is uncertain. For all we know, stocks could run up through the end of the year. Stranger things have happened.

What is also uncertain is the nature of this purge: Is this another soft decline like that of mid-2015 to early-2016, when the DJIA fell 12 percent before quickly resuming its uptrend? Or is this the start of a brutal bear market – the kind that wipes out portfolios and blows up investment funds?

The stars in the night sky tell us this is the latter. For example, when peering out into the night sky even the most untrained eye can identify the three ominous stars that are lining up with mechanical precision.

These stars include a stock market top, followed by a monster corporate debt buildup, and a fading economy. In short, the stock market’s latest break is presaging a corporate credit crisis and global recession.



BofA/Merrill Lynch US high yield Master II Index yield – this looks like a quite convincing breakout, impossible to tweet down. In other words, the corporate debt build-up is beginning to bite back – and rather bigly, if we may say so (ed note, in case you’re wondering: the little poems are from a Spectator competition in which people used phrases from actual tweets to put together Donald haikus and poems). [PT]

The last time these three stars aligned in this sequence was roughly a decade ago. If you recall, that was when the DJIA crashed 50 percent coincident with a mega credit crisis and recession. We suspect that the disaster that’s approaching will be much larger, and much more destructive than the disaster of a decade ago.

Bad Habit
Astute readers will be quick to point out that government debt was not identified as one of the three ominous stars lining up in the night sky. This is not an oversight. Rather, it is an insight.

Without question, government debt has burgeoned way beyond what even the most doom and gloom pessimists could have envisioned just a decade ago. In fact, November marked the widest one month budget deficit in U.S. history.

Over a one month period – a month with just 30 days, not 31 – the U.S. government spent $411 billion while it only received $206 billion. By our rough back of the napkin calculation, the U.S. government spent nearly double what it took in. That difference, of course, was made up with debt. Roughly, $6.83 billion of new debt was added each and every day.

At best, spending more than one makes, like smoking or swearing, is a bad habit. However, spending more than one makes with no intention to pay it back is a moral failing. What’s more, running up untenable levels of government debt with the implied intent of inflating it away at the expense of the citizenry is downright evil.



It’s definitely a tremendous pile of debt… and the slope of the mountain has steepened quite dramatically in recent years… [PT]

Day after day, month after month, year after year, decade after decade, the U.S. government has racked up close to $22 trillion in debt. Throw in unfunded liabilities of social security, Medicare (Parts A, B, and D), federal debt held by the public, and federal employee and veteran benefits, and the U.S. government’s on the hook for over $115.8 trillion in debt – or nearly $1 million per taxpayer. How about that?

Of course, as the population ages, and the ratio of workers to retirees balances, these debt figures will go vertical. As you can see, government debt is more than just an ominous star. It’s the essential star. Moreover, it is a dying star on the verge of collapse. Quite frankly, it may not have enough energy to backstop the financial system during the next downturn. Here’s why…

How Faux Capitalism Works in America
Our guess is that the real squawking from investors won’t begin until mid-2019. That’s about the time corporate America becomes acutely aware that pumping gobs of borrowed money into grossly overvalued stocks was an act of financial suicide.

Just look to General Electric, IBM, and Citigroup for an early indication of the forthcoming catastrophe. For instance, over the last decade GE spent $46 billion buying back its shares. In 2016 and 2017 alone, at a time of mushrooming debt, GE pumped $24 billion into share buybacks.



GE wasted $46 billion on buying back its shares – with nothing to show for it except a collapsing share price. This was an astonishing misallocation of capital – very likely the company will eventually have issue new shares to prop up its equity, at prices far below the prices it paid for buying them back. [PT]

Over this time, the price of these shares dropped from about $30 to $16. And even with Thursday’s 7.3 percent boost, on word of a surprise JPMorgan upgrade, GE shares trade at $7.20. In other words, shares GE bought back during the early part of 2016 have lost 75 percent of their value. What to make of it?

The 2008 financial crisis helped clarify how faux capitalism works in America. That when the big corporations and the big banks get in trouble, the people on top quickly absolve culpability while appropriating public funds from their friends at the Treasury for the purpose of private bailouts. This, in effect, socializes the losses across bottom rungs of society and concentrates profits across the top.

No doubt, the aftermath of the great corporate stock buyback craze of 2009 to 2017 will be a text book example of faux capitalism in action.

First, massive financial bailouts will be disseminated to crony banks and corporations with purpose and intent. Then, a colossal river of monetary liquidity from the Fed will be diverted into credit markets, and into direct stock purchases of government preferred corporations.



Bailout progression – it continues until it cannot continue anymore, i.e., until the “running out of other people’s money” moment arrives. [PT]

The size and scope of these fiscal and monetary bailouts will utterly dwarf the TARP, ZIRP, and QE policies of the last crisis. Assuming this doesn’t blow up the Treasury’s balance sheet, or vaporize what’s left of the dollar’s value, a certain end effect will take shape. The middle class will be reduced to a notch or two above poverty, and wealth will be further concentrated into fewer and fewer hands.

We don’t like it. We don’t agree with it. But we can’t stop it. This is the world we live in. A world where justice has been debased and rectitude has been sullied.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-15/how-faux-capitalism-works-america
 

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Why GDP Does Not Reflect the Real State of the Economy.
maneco64


Published on Dec 16, 2018
 

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How to Maintain an Offshore Plan
Nomad Capitalist


Published on Dec 16, 2018
https://www.nomadcapitalist.com/

Want to go offshore to reduce taxes, build personal freedom, and grow your wealth?

Creating a plan that manages your global business structure, offshore banking, second residence, tax residence, citizenship, and investments is complicated enough in the era of the "Nomad Tax Trap".

However, many people who come to us ask "How do I maintain my offshore structure once it's set up?"

While it's true that some parts of an offshore plan will need to be renewed or kept up to date, a properly created plan won't need constant changes.


DISCLAIMER: The information in this video should not be considered tax, financial, investment, or any kind of professional advice. Only a professional diagnosis of your specific situation can determine which strategies are appropriate for your needs. Nomad Capitalist can and does not provide advice unless/until engaged by you.
 

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Farm bill 18
Ag Talk In The Raw


Streamed live on Dec 14, 2018
i am here to talk about farming and al that goes with it.
 

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Us Farm Bill Continued
Ag Talk In The Raw


Published on Dec 16, 2018
i am here to talk about farming and all that goes with it.
 

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TPB - 10 Sunday Reads 12/16
https://ritholtz.com/2018/12/10-sunday-reads-135/

Naked Capitalism Links 12/16
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/12/links-12-16-18.html

SA - Market News Live Feed 12/16
https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

SA - Weighing The Week Ahead: What Could Go Right? 12/16
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4228539-weighing-week-ahead-go-right

FC - USD/CAD Forecast December 17-21 – Struggles continue for CAD 12/16
https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-cad...utm_campaign=Feed:+ForexCrunch+(Forex+Crunch)
 

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Energy & Shipping 12/16:

- What's to Come for Offshore Energy in 2019?
http://www.bakerbotts.com/news/2018/12/whats-to-come-for-offshore-energy

- Baker Botts' Oil and Gas Outlook in 2019 - What's to Come?
http://www.bakerbotts.com/news/2018/12/baker-botts-oil-and-gas-outlook

- Saudi Arabia to Target U.S. With Sharp Oil Export Cut, Sources Say
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-said-to-target-u-s-with-sharp-oil-export-cut


- Tankers Rebound in November
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/tankers-rebound-in-november/

- VLCC Utilization Up in November
http://www.bunkerportsnews.com/News.aspx?ElementID=03cea05a-b85f-4991-8e74-93ed6adb247b

- Affinity Tanker Weekly, 14 December 2018
Download PDF

- Baltic Dry Index climbs to 1401, up 36 points 12/14
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-dry-index-climbs-to-1401-up-36-points/

- Ships’ Demolition Market Is About to Change Modus Operandi
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ships-demolition-market-is-about-to-change-modus-operandi/

Weekly Intelligence Report 6th December – 13th December
https://neptunep2pgroup.com/weekly-intelligence-report-6th-december-13th-december/

Protection Vessels International: Weekly Maritime Security Report
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.co...rnational-weekly-maritime-security-report-72/

- UKMTO Weekly Piracy Report 9 December – 15 December 2018
Download PDF

- Commentary: Don't be fooled by China's soybean buy; crude, LNG, coal are the big fish
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-c...crude-lng-coal-are-the-big-fish-idUKKBN1OC1AG


- Landmark Court of Appeal Decision on Ship Arrest Counter-security and Wrongful Arrest Damages
http://www.bunkerportsnews.com/News.aspx?ElementID=99dc4a15-09ab-4410-b784-63fb53a09630

- SCFI suffers another dip for rates to the US, but Europe shows more resilience

- Captain’s ruined career and righteous zealots. Why young people avoid high seas.
http://maritimebulletin.net/2018/12...ous-zealots-why-young-people-avoid-high-seas/

- Live International Companies’ Shipping Stocks
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/live-international-shipping-stocks/
 

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It beggars belief! New Yorker, 25, earns up to $4,000 a month by live-streaming his day and asking social media followers for donations to pay his rent and so he can buy marijuana and video games

  • Jovan Hill, 25, grew up in Missouri City, Texas, and moved to New York City four years ago
  • He live-streams his day on a number of social media platforms including Periscope and Patreon
  • Social media followers donate as much as $4,000 a month through donations or subscription services
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ker-earns-4-000-month-live-streaming-day.html
 

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The bank of mom and dad! American parents are eating into their own retirement fund by spending $500BILLION a year nationwide to support their adult children

  • Parents of adult children help their offspring financially to the tune of $500billion annually, funding weddings, college education and mortgages
  • Two thirds of parents have scarified their financial security for their children
  • One in four young adults living with their parents don't go to school or work
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...spend-billions-supporting-adult-children.html
 

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2018 Year End Review and 2019 Forecast
boubin2


Published on Dec 16, 2018
This week I talk about what has happened in 2018 and what I see going forward in 2019. To my mind it is about liquidity and the FED. We are currently seeing the FED shrink liquidity. We have seen volatility recently and we can expect that to continue.
 

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The Fed Is Not a Friend of the People and Never Will Be.
maneco64


Streamed live 102 minutes ago
In this live stream I will be talking about the U.S. Central Bank and a recent interview of Ms. DiMartino Booth by Greg Hunter.
 

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The fall of Sears
CBS Sunday Morning


Published on Dec 16, 2018
At its peak, Sears, Roebuck was the largest retailer in the world. And then, the company that dominated the department store and mail order business for much of the 20th century officially filed for bankruptcy, buckling under its massive debt load and staggering losses. David Pogue looks at the company and its failure to evolve in a changing economy.
 

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Nutrien Ag Solutions Ag Forecast - Dec 17, 2018
Agrible, Inc.


Published on Dec 17, 2018
Brought to you by Nutrien Ag Solutions.
 

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Global Stock Rally Fizzles As Europe Slammed By "Retail Apocalypse"


by Tyler Durden
Mon, 12/17/2018 - 07:14


Another attempt to rally S&P futures overnight has fizzled, this time as a result of weakness in Europe and a mixed session in Asia, following a sharp decline in European retailers due to a record plunge in UK online retailer Asos Plc which collapsed after warning that Christmas shopping got off to a disastrous start, dragging its shares to a 2 year low and hitting the sector.



In an otherwise quiet session as traders prepare for this week's critical Fed meeting, shares in European retailer Asos plunged by over 40% after the company cut expectations for the current financial year. The last time its shares traded this low was back in 2015/16. The company said it was experiencing a “significant deterioration” in the trading month of November and that conditions remain challenging. Guidance is slashed to 15% from earlier expectation of 20-25%. As Inezfrans notes, "the move lower is absolutely astonishing."



Asos cut its full-year sales-growth guidance on a “significant deterioration” in November, blaming a high level of discounting amid economic uncertainty and low consumer confidence, which has been undermined in the U.K. by the continuing Brexit saga.

The rest of the Europe's big retailers including Marks & Spencer, JD Sports, Next and Boohoo all fell in London, while German giant Zalando has also joining the implosion of the retailers, falling by 15% on Xetra.

Commenting on Europe's "retail apocalypse", Bloomberg notes that the gloomy update from the online retailer - which competes with Amazon.com and has furnished fashions to the likes of Meghan Markle - shows that retail weakness is widespread in the runup to the holidays.

Last week, Sports Direct International Plc Chief Executive Officer Mike Ashley said sales were “unbelievably bad” in November, sending the shares off a cliff.

"This goes against the script,” said Stephen Lienert, a credit analyst at Jefferies. “It was supposed to be bricks and mortar that’s dying and online is the future, but that headline gets ripped up today."

The Asos news shows that retailers can’t rely on online operations to make up for a decline in stores this year. If December doesn’t improve, the New Year may bring more profit warnings, or worse, to the sector. Meanwhile, other retailers such as Debenhams Plc and Marks & Spencer, which are in the midst of turnaround plans, may be particularly vulnerable. The U.K.’s shopping districts have already been decimated by a series of collapses, including the insolvency of department-store chain House of Fraser, which Ashley rescued earlier this year.

Investors in retail debt are also feeling the pain. Debenhams’ 200 million pounds of bonds due July 2021 have plummeted 35 pence on the pound since the start of the year to 64 pence, the lowest since the notes were sold in 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Europe's Stoxx 600 Index dropped to session lows, down 0.5% following the Asos plunge and retail sector weakness. In contrast, mining shares are up 1% after China managed to close modestly higher after the PBOC injected a net CNY150BN in reverse repo liquidity after 36 days of silence. Among Europe's other biggest decliners are Novartis -1%, Adidas -3.4% and H&M -7.2%.



Earlier in the session, Asian markets began the week cautiously following the downbeat lead from Wall Street in which the three major indexes closed lower by around 2% each with the Dow plunging almost 500 points to its lowest level since early May, led lower by shares in Apple and Johnson & Johnson, while the S&P and Nasdaq were dragged down by tech names as the sector lagged. Australia's ASX 200 (+1.0%) was buoyed by material and mining names after MOFCOM confirmed the suspension of retaliatory tariffs on US vehicles and auto parts, while Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) initially outperformed on currency effect as the export-heavy index benefitted from the weaker JPY. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (Unch) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) traded choppy and swung between gains and losses in which the indices initially dipped in the red as industrial names were again pressured in a continuation from the weak IP data last week, housing names then provided the bourses with some support amid an improvement in house prices data.

Futures on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq fluctuated before dipping in the red, dragged lower by Europe's weakness.



Treasuries posted modest gains to start the week, with the 10Y yield dipping 1 basis point to 2.8786% and have seen some bull steepening with 2s/10s and 10-year futures uneventful ahead of an action-packed central bank week, that kicks off with the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference from Tuesday ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday, with BoJ, BoE and more thereafter, alongside US housing data tomorrow.

In foreign exchange markets, most currencies were little changed. The dollar fell after a strong week that took it to the highest in a month, following bizarre strength in the euro which hit fresh session high even as data show annual euro-area inflation slipped to 1.9% in November, the lowest since May, from 2.2% the previous month; the yen was steady after a bout of risk aversion hammered global equities in recent sessions. Emerging-market shares and currencies edged higher thanks to the drop in the dollar: Mexico’s peso rallied after President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador promised a surplus in next year’s budget.

“The market appears to be underpricing the Fed, and any indication of additional gradual increases is likely to bring potential dollar upside versus rate-sensitive currencies,” Barclays strategists wrote in a note.

Core EU bonds have recovered some ground after touching session lows (163.04 and 123.37) with Bunds deriving some support from another retreat in BTPs (trading near lows at 125.20), that has pushed German benchmark futures back above par to print new highs at 163.29. Italian bond yields edged higher even as Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte forged a deal with populist leaders to submit a revised budget proposal to the European Commission in a bid to avert fines: The new plan confirms the 2019 deficit target will be lowered to 2.04 percent of GDP from 2.4 percent as Conte flagged to Brussels last week. Meanwhile Gilts have been further depressed by the accounting changes at the ONS which “effectively wipes out the Brexit buffer” after the Brexit-driven downturn, that has pushed the benchmark to trade in close proximity to lows of the day.

Elsewhere, Malaysia turned up the heat on Goldman Sachs Group Inc., filing criminal charges against the U.S. bank.

Markets are expected to be relatively quiet until this week's FOMC announcement, when the Fed is expected to raise interest rates for a fourth time this year, but it will be Chairman Powell’s remarks that will be closely studied for hints on their future path and whether the dot plot is trimmed to forecast 2 rate hikes in 2019 instead of 3; a failure to turn more dovish would lead to another rout in risk assets as global growth forecasts for next year are being trimmed at an accelerating pace.

“A final key rate hike for 2018 is almost a done deal, but what is more important is how the Fed’s dot plots shift in 2019 and beyond. If U.S. monetary policymakers are seeing a serious risk of economic slowdown, those dots should be pulled downwards,” said FXTM strategist Hussein Sayed.



In this week's other key events, investors will be looking to a speech by China's President Xi Jinping on Tuesday marking the 40th anniversary of China’s reforms and opening up. China - where the economy has been rapidly losing momentum - is also expected to hold its annual Central Economic Work Conference later this week, where key growth targets and policy goals for 2019 will be discussed. The top decision-making body of the Communist Party, the Politburo, said last week China will keep its economic growth within a reasonable range next year, striving to support jobs, trade and investment while pushing reforms and curbing risks.

“It’s generally assumed that you will need to expand fiscal and monetary support to achieve those goals,” said Tokai Tokyo Research strategist Wang Shenshen.

The optimism before Xi’s speech helped base metals rise, although weak economic indicators capped gains.

Meanwhile political uncertainty still grips investors. There are yet more personnel changes within the Trump administration and confusion remains over Britain’s future relationship with the European Union.

“There’s been a reevaluation of growth and inflation prospects over 2019 with the trade war now looking extremely negative,” Steve Goldman, fund manager at Kapstream Capital, told Bloomberg TV in Sydney. “We’re going to see a lot of volatility.”

As reported over the weekend, Trump's Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke will leave at the end of the year amid a swirl of federal investigations.

Elsewhere, in the neverending Brexit drama, investors will monitor Theresa May's comments after her team pushed back against reports they are warming to a second referendum on Brexit. The U.K. prime minister will face Parliament on Monday.

In commodities, Brent (+1.0%) and WTI (+1.0%) have shown a modest upside in prices which is more a by-product of currency effects as the dollar drifts lower. This morning there have been reports that Russia’s oil output has been at a record high of 11.42mln BPD in December, with prices unreactive to this news. Additionally, the UAE Energy Minister has said that he expects everyone to cut oil supply following the OPEC agreement, and separately reports state that China’s Shenghong has begun building a 330k BPD refinery in Jiangsu. Gold has traded within a tight USD 4/oz range, but has recently begun to firm slightly as the DXY has remained largely unchanged ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. Elsewhere, steel and iron ore prices have begun to rise due to winter production cuts, as Chinese authorities are trying to reduce air pollution levels.

Expected data include Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Heico, Oracle, and Red Hat are reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,610.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 345.76
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 149.57
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 482.53
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 21,506.88
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,594.20
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.03% to 26,087.98
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2,597.97
  • Sensex up 0.9% to 36,290.73
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 5,658.27
  • Kospi up 0.08% to 2,071.09
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 0.255%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1327
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 2.577%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 1.419%
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $60.70/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,239.59
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 97.23
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
  • The dollar’s gains over the past three months have spurred hedge funds to cut bullish bets to the lowest since June. Leveraged funds trimmed positions wagering on gains in the greenback by the most since September, according to the latest data from the U.S. CFTC based on eight currency pairs
  • Donald Trump won’t be sitting down with Special Counsel Robert Mueller to answer more questions in his investigation into election interference, Rudy Giuliani, the president’s attorney, vowed on Sunday
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will attack supporters of a second Brexit referendum on Monday as she explains to Parliament why European Union leaders rebuffed her attempt to make her divorce deal more attractive to lawmakers
  • Australia is on track to return to the black for the first time since the global financial crisis, almost doubling the size of its projected surplus in fiscal 2020, according to projections from the Treasury
  • The Italian government will trim its deficit target for next year in its latest proposal that seeks to avoid EU sanctions for violating the bloc’s budget rules, the Ansa news agency reported
  • The toll Brexit is taking on the U.K. housing market was laid bare in surveys published Monday
Asian equity markets began the week somewhat cautiously following the downbeat lead from Wall St. in which the three major bourses closed lower by around 2% each. The Dow plunged almost 500 points to its lowest level since early May, led lower by shares in Apple and Johnson & Johnson, while the S&P and Nasdaq were dragged down by tech names as the sector lagged. ASX 200 (+1.0%) was buoyed by material and mining names after MOFCOM confirmed the suspension of retaliatory tariffs on US vehicles and auto parts, while Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) initially outperformed on currency effect as the export-heavy index benefitted from the weaker JPY. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (Unch) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) traded choppy and swung between gains and losses in which the indices initially dipped in the red as industrial names were again pressured in a continuation from the weak IP data last week, housing names then provided the bourses with some support amid an improvement in house prices data. Finally, 10yr JGB yields touched over 5-month lows as fears of slower global growth boosted demand for the debt.

Top Asian News
  • China Built a Global Economy in 40 Years, Now It Has a New Plan
  • JDI Posts Record 2-Day Rally as Company Hints Demand May Improve
  • Takeda Downgraded by Moody’s on Lofty Debt After Shire Deal
  • 1MDB USD Bonds See Biggest Drop In 2 Weeks After Malaysia Charge
  • China Bond Issuers Shorten Process to Clinch Year-End Deals
Major European indices are in the red [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%], with losses generally broad-based although there is some underperformance in the SMI (-0.6%) with heavyweight UBS (-0.4%) in the red having lost ground against rivals after USD 3.1bln was removed from their ETF business in November; alongside Swatch (-3.0%) and Richemont (-0.9%) who were both downgraded at Morgan Stanley. Similarly, sectors are in the red with some underperformance seen in Consumer Discretionary alongside the European Retail Sector, the latter dropping to its lowest level since July 2016. This follows Asos (-40.0%) plummeting after cutting their full year outlook, which has pulled other retail names down in sympathy. In addition, ABB (+0.8%) are up after the Co has reached a deal with Hitachi regarding their power grids division valued at USD 11bln. SSE (-2.0%) are lower as they have been unable to come to an agreement with Innogy (-1.0%) on revised commercial terms.

Top European News
  • SSE Pulls the Plug on U.K. Energy Retail Merger With Innogy
  • Euro- Area Inflation Revised Down After ECB Pledged to Halt QE
  • Italy Govt Has Resources to Cover 2.04% Deficit in 2019: Ansa
  • DWS Head Asoka Woehrmann Reshuffles Regional Leadership Roles
  • Toxic Politics and Fading Stimulus: East Europe’s 2019 Risks
In FX, the DXY has traded in a 97.199-463 range for the index almost says it all in terms of the lacklustre start in currency markets to the final full week of the year. However, the Dollar is treading cautiously into the FOMC amidst an approximate 75% probability for a 4th 25 bp hike, with the focus firmly on updated policy guidance and fresh dot plots to see whether the consensus has shifted towards a pause in tightening or a shallower rate profile from 2019 out.
  • NZD/AUD - The Kiwi is just about keeping its head above 0.6800 vs its US counterpart and in front of the G10 pack, but largely by default and relative weakness in the Aud after the Australian Treasury downgraded its 2018/9 growth forecast to 2.75% from 3% overnight. Indeed, Aud/Usd remains capped ahead of 0.7200 where a decent 1.1 bn option expiry resides, while the Aud/Nzd cross is back under 1.0550.
  • EUR - The single currency has reclaimed 1.1300+ status vs the Greenback, but may also be hampered by expiry interest between 1.1320-35 as 1.1 bn runs off at the NY cut, or technical resistance at the 30 DMA circa 1.1353 if the headline pair manages to clear option-related offers/hedges convincingly. No discernible reaction to final Eurozone inflation data even though the EU-harmonised measure was unexpectedly trimmed to 1.9% y/y from 2%
  • JPY/CAD - Both relatively flat vs the US Dollar and rangebound (113.25-50 and 1.3375-90 respectively), with the former awaiting the last BoJ meeting of the year ahead of the Fed and the latter only deriving modest momentum from firmer crude prices.
  • EM - The Mxn is benefiting from the broad Usd downturn and some bullish Peso sentiment following the Mexican budget projections to retest resistance ahead of 20.0000, but the Try is bucking the general trend in wake of considerably weaker than expected Turkish ip data, as the Lira struggles to hold above 5.4000.
In commodities, Brent (+1.0%) and WTI (+1.0%) have shown a modest upside in prices with this more a by-product of currency effects as the dollar drifts lower. This morning there have been reports that Russia’s oil output has been at a record high of 11.42mln BPD in December, with prices unreactive to this news. Additionally, the UAE Energy Minister has said that he expects everyone to cut oil supply following the OPEC agreement, and separately reports state that China’s Shenghong has begun building a 330k BPD refinery in Jiangsu. Gold has traded within a tight USD 4/oz range, but has recently begun to firm slightly as the DXY has remained largely unchanged ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting.

Elsewhere, steel and iron ore prices have begun to rise due to winter production cuts, as Chinese authorities are trying to reduce air pollution levels. Separately, Vedanta may restart its 400ktpa Indian copper smelter following it’s forced closure by the government due to pollution. UAE Energy Minister says he expects "everyone" to cut oil supply as per the OPEC agreement. Kuwait Oil Ministers resignation is said to have been accepted, according to sources.

US Event Calendar
  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 20, prior 23.3
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 60.5, prior 60
  • 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $29.1b deficit
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $30.8b
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...ally-fizzles-europe-slammed-retail-apocalypse
 

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Naked Capitalism Links 12/17
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/12/links-12-17-18.html

SA - Market News Live Feed 12/17
https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

TBP - 10 Monday AM Reads 12/17
https://ritholtz.com/2018/12/10-monday-am-reads-196/

CWS - Morning News: December 17, 2018
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2018/12/morning-news-december-17-2018.html

MtM - Markets Quiet to Start Fed Week 12/17
http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2018/12/markets-quiet-to-start-fed-week.html

FC - NZD/USD: The Fed sets the trend, NZ GDP follows 12/17
https://www.forexcrunch.com/nzd-usd...utm_campaign=Feed:+ForexCrunch+(Forex+Crunch)

TCS - Major Asset Classes Posted Mixed Results Last Week 12/17
http://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-posted-mixed-results-last-week/

SA - Wall Street Breakfast: ABB Deal, Market Direction, Goldman Trouble 12/17
https://seekingalpha.com/article/42...ast-abb-deal-market-direction-goldman-trouble
 

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ENSCO-72 Jack Up Has Sailed – Drilling of the Wick well during December 2018.
Share Talk


Published on Dec 17, 2018
We can confirm
 

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Share Talk Bulletin Board Heroes, Monday 17th December 2018
Share Talk


Published on Dec 17, 2018
A charting look at some of the most followed stocks on the London market, Zak Mir covers.

Anglo Afri O&G (AAOG)
Echo Energy (ECHO)
Kefi Minerals (KEFI)
Summit Ther (SUMM)
Savannah Resources (SAV)
Velocys (VLS)

@ZaksTradersCafe deductive reasoning as to what should happen next in terms of the newsflow regarding the companies listed in this video.

Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.
 

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Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On The Fed (And China)


by Tyler Durden
Mon, 12/17/2018 - 08:49


This week is full of central bank meetings including the Fed, BOE and BOJ, and while most of them will deliver no change, all eyes will be on the Fed which will (almost certainly) hike again while making a technical adjustment to the IOER (5bps), but the far bigger question is whether the Fed will signal just two hikes in 2019, one fewer than previously.

As it's also a press conference meeting (the last before every FOMC has one) we will receive fresh economic projections. According to DB economists other than the recent volatility in risk assets, the current-quarter data should not provide a compelling reason for the Fed to completely rethink its growth and core inflation projections at this meeting. Even so, Deutsche Bank economists joined Goldman in revising down their call for the number of hikes next year from 4 to 3, and now have one last hike in the forecast for 2020. Elsewhere the BoJ and BoE should be quiet affairs which is possibly tempting fate.

Meanwhile, China will hold its 3-day economic policy-setting meeting where Chinese policymakers will have occasion to reaffirm their commitment to reform and the measured easing approach while potentially unveiling more fiscal stimulus. Investors will be looking to a speech by China's President Xi Jinping on Tuesday marking the 40th anniversary of China’s reforms and opening up. China - where the economy has been rapidly losing momentum - is also expected to hold its annual Central Economic Work Conference later this week, where key growth targets and policy goals for 2019 will be discussed. The top decision-making body of the Communist Party, the Politburo, said last week China will keep its economic growth within a reasonable range next year, striving to support jobs, trade and investment while pushing reforms and curbing risks. “It’s generally assumed that you will need to expand fiscal and monetary support to achieve those goals,” said Tokai Tokyo Research strategist Wang Shenshen.

In Europe, besides Brexit, the focus may well be the budget bills of France and Italy, whereas the various surveys are likely to show sliding confidence amid elevated political uncertainties. Today, the main data was euro area's final HICP inflation, which disappointed, printing at 1.9%, below the flash estimate of 2.0% even as core inflation printed in line at 1.0%.

As for the data highlights this week, DB's Jim Reid writes that in the US expect much of the focus to be on the November PCE report on Friday where the consensus is for a 0.0% mom and +0.2% mom headline and core reading respectively. A reminder that the healthcare component of the PPI report was strong last week, up +0.27% mom which points to upside risk for the core PCE print: "It would be ironic if inflation started to reignite after a softer quarter just as markets start to price out the Fed for 2019." Given how strong the US economy currently is it wouldn’t be a surprise to see such a scenario.

Other notable data due in the US next week includes November housing starts and building permits tomorrow, November existing home sales on Wednesday and the final Q3 GDP revisions (no change from +3.5 qoq saar expected), and preliminary November durable and capital goods orders on Friday.

Also in the US, today sees former FBI Director James Comey appearing for more closed-door questioning by House lawmakers. Staying with the US administration, the threat of a partial US government shutdown on Friday looms should President Trump fail to resolve funding for the wall along the Mexican border.

Key US data releases courtesy of Morgan Stanley:
  • Housing Starts (Tuesday, 8:30am): Housing starts and building permits should be weaker in November, driven in part by poor weather. Following a 1.5% gain in October, housing starts are set to decline over 4.2%, which would bring the annual rate to 1.18 million units. Building permits are also expected to come in softer.
  • Existing Home Sales (Wednesday, 10am): Existing home sales are expected to resume their decline in November after a brief respite in October, where sales rose 1.4% following six consecutive month-over-month declines. MS sees sales falling 1.3% to an annual rate of 5.15 million units.
  • Durable Goods (Friday, 8:30am): Durable goods manufacturing production rose by moderate 0.2% in the industrial production report for November, implying a similarly moderate gain in core durable goods orders. MS looks for durables goods orders excluding transportation to rise 0.3% in November,a decent gain after growth of 0.2% in October. The bank also expects overall durable goods measure rising 1.0% on the back of a stronger month of aircraft orders.
  • Personal Income and Spending (Friday, 10am): Income growth is expected to moderate slightly in November to a still robust pace of 0.4% after a 0.5% gain in October. Nominal personal spending, meanwhile, should slow in November to a pace of 0.3% after posting a large 0.6% gain in October. For the price indices, this month's CPI and PPI inputs point to November core PCE inflation of 0.18%M, raising the year-over-year rate to 1.9% from 1.8% (1.86% vs. 1.78%). Headline PCE inflation should rise 0.08%, lowering the year-overyear rate to 1.8% from 2.0% (1.83% vs. 1.98%)

And visually:


Meanwhile, in Europe we'll also get Germany's December IFO survey tomorrow, the UK's November inflation data dump on Wednesday, November retail sales on Thursday, and the final Q3 GDP revisions on Friday. Finally it's quiet in Asia with only Japan's November CPI report late on Thursday worth flagging.

Below is a daily summary of the key events in the week ahead from Deutsche Bank:

Summary of key events in the week ahead:
  • Monday: It's a quiet start to the week for data on Monday with the only releases of note in Europe being the UK’s CBI trends total orders along with the Euro Area October trade balance and final November CPI revisions. In the US, we get the December Empire manufacturing index and NAHB housing market index. Away from that, former FBI Director James Comey appears for a second day of closeddoor questioning from lawmakers.
  • Tuesday: It stays quiet into Tuesday with Germany's December IFO survey and November housing starts and building permits data in the US the only releases due. Late in the evening we'll get Japan's November trade balance. Elsewhere, ECB Vice President Guindos will participate in a panel discussion.
  • Wednesday: The main highlight on Wednesday is the outcome of the FOMC policy meeting and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. Prior to that, we get Germany's November PPI and the UK's November inflation data docket. In the US, we get the latest weekly MBA mortgage applications, Q3 current account balance and November existing home sales. Away from that the ECB's Hansson is also due to speak. Also worth flagging is the European Commission meeting to discuss Italy's budget and Chinese leaders beginning their three-day annual economic policy-setting meeting.
  • Thursday: The BoJ and the BoE monetary policy meetings are the two big highlights on Thursday. Data wise we get the Euro Area's October current account balance and the UK's November retail sales report. In the US we get the latest weekly initial jobless and continuing claims prints along with the December Philadelphia Fed PMI and November leading index. In Asia, we get Japan's November CPI in the evening.
  • Friday: It's a busy end to the week for data on Friday with the November PCE report and final Q3 GDP revisions in the US the highlights. Prior to that, we'll also get Euro Area December consumer confidence, the UK's final Q3 GDP revisions, Germany January consumer confidence and France's final Q3 GDP. In the US, we get preliminary November durable goods and capital goods orders, November personal income and real personal spending data, the final December University of Michigan survey results and the December Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index. It's worth noting that Friday is also the day that a partial US government shutdown could kick in.

Finally, here is Goldman's preview of the week ahead together with consensus expectations: the key economic data releases this week are the durable goods and core PCE reports on Friday. In addition, the December FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST, followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, December 17
  • 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing index, December (consensus +20.0, last +23.3)
  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, December (consensus 60, last 60)
Tuesday, December 18
  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, November (GS -1.5%, consensus +0.2%, last +1.5%): Building permits, November (consensus +0.4%, last -0.4%): We estimate housing starts declined 1.5% in November after a small increase in October. We expect a moderate drag from winter weather that also appears to have weighed on November construction employment. Over the next few quarters, we expect higher interest rates and tax reform to continue to weigh on homebuilding.
Wednesday, December 19
  • 10:00 Existing Home Sales, November (GS +0.3%, consensus -0.4%, last +1.4%); We estimate existing home sales increased 0.3% in November after its first increase in six months in October, noting modest improvement in regional sales data. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
  • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, December 18-19 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect the FOMC to raise the target range for the funds rate by 25 basis points in the December meeting. In the post-meeting statement, we expect a dovish tilt to the language, reflecting a substantial tightening in financial conditions. We expect the growth characterization to be downgraded (to “solid” from strong”) and the funds rate guidance (“further gradual increases”) to be replaced with something less committal (“some further increases”). In the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) we look for: (1) a downgrade to the median GDP growth projections; (2) a slight downgrade to the median NAIRU estimate; and (3) a new median policy path of 2 hikes in 2019, 1 hike in 2020, and no hikes in 2021 (down from 3-1-0 in the September SEP).
Thursday, December 20
  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, December (GS +14.0, consensus +15.0, last +12.9); We estimate the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index increased 1.1pt to +14.0 in December. Other indicators of manufacturing activity such as the ISM manufacturing index have been fairly firm in recent weeks.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended December 15 (GS 220k, consensus 219k, last 206k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended December 8 (consensus 1,650k, last 1,661k): We estimate jobless claims increased by 14k to 220k in the week ended December 15, with some scope for mean reversion following a sharp 27k decline in the prior week.
Friday, December 21
  • 08:30 AM GDP (third), Q3 (GS +3.5%, consensus +3.5%, last +3.5%); Personal consumption, Q3 (GS +3.6%, consensus +3.6%, last +3.6%): We do not expect a revision in the third vintage of the Q3 GDP report (previously reported at +3.5% qoq saar), although we note some scope for upward revisions to business investment or inventories. We also forecast an unchanged reading for personal consumption (+3.6% qoq ar).
  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, November preliminary (GS flat, consensus +1.7%, last -4.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, November preliminary (GS flat, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Core capital goods orders, November preliminary (GS flat, consensus +0.2%, last flat); Core capital goods shipments, November preliminary (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%): We expect durable goods orders to remain flat in the November report, given another month of soft commercial aircraft orders. Manufacturing production growth was below expectations in November, and we expect a drag on mining equipment orders from lower oil prices to weigh on core capital goods orders.
  • 08:30 AM Personal income, November (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%); Personal spending, November (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); PCE price index, November (GS +0.05%, consensus flat, last +0.18%); Core PCE price index, November (GS +0.13%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.10%); PCE price index (yoy), November (GS +1.80%, consensus +1.8%, last +1.98%); Core PCE price index (yoy), November (GS +1.82%, consensus +1.9%, last +1.78%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI, and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose 0.13% month-over-month in November, or 1.82% from a year ago. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.05% in November, or 1.80% from a year earlier. We expect a 0.3% increase in November personal income and a 0.4% gain in personal spending.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December final (GS 97.4, consensus 97.5, last 97.5); We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge down 0.1pt from the preliminary estimate for December due to renewed stock market declines. The report’s measure of 5- to 10-year inflation expectations stood at 2.4% in the preliminary report for December.
  • 11:00AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, December (last +15)
Source: DB, MS, SocGen, Goldman

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-17/key-events-coming-week-all-eyes-fed-and-china
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 12 17 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Dec 17, 2018
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 12 17 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Dec 17, 2018
 

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Amazon Muslim workers protest that they they don't have enough time to pray

  • Muslim Amazon workers say they don't have enough time to pray on shifts
  • Workers in Minneapolis have held a protest to fight for their rights
  • Practicing Muslims are supposed to pray five times a day
  • But Amazon has warehouse workers on strict hourly packing quotas
  • They are supposed to pack 240-400 boxes an hour; one every 10-15 seconds
  • The workers say if they fail to meet the targets they risk being fired
  • Amazon warehouse workers get two 15-minute breaks and one 30-minute break each shift
  • Several Amazon employees have spoken up over the past few months about what life is like inside the warehouses
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...inst-internet-giant-claim-dont-time-pray.html
 

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Markets plunge AGAIN with Dow Jones sinking 500 points and losing all of 2018's gains after Trump tweets anger at the Federal Reserve for considering a rate rise

  • S&P 500 fell as much as 2.5 percent closing at its lowest level in more than a year
  • Stocks tanked amid growing concerns that the Federal Reserve's plan to raise interest rates could be too much for the economy and stock market to handle
  • The price of oil closed below $50 a barrel for the first time since October 2017
  • Analysts believe hundreds of hedge funds could be shuttered by the end of 2019
  • President Trump cited low inflation and ‘outside world blowing up’ as reasons to not raise rates
  • All the major indexes fell with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 507 points, or 2.1 percent, to 23,592, after Trump's tweet
  • He later affirmed that he is bailing out farmers for a second time, as part of a $12 billion payment program, just before markets closed
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ut-major-hedge-funds-close-report-losses.html
 

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Google announces plans to spend $1BILLION to build a new complex in New York City - doubling its workforce to 14,000 over the next decade - and unlike Amazon they haven't been given a tax break

  • Tech-giant will expand New York operation with complex along Hudson River
  • Google plans to spend more than $1billion building the new office, officials said
  • Company opened first office in New York 20 years ago and now employs 7,000
  • With the new expansion, their workforce will double to 14,000 over next decade
  • It follows recent steps by Amazon and Apple to set up operations on East Coast
  • But there are concerns over New York's already crumbling infrastructure and the already looming crisis over affordable housing
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...n-build-new-office-complex-New-York-City.html
 

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Gold Prevails Always 2019 and Beyond
Junius Maltby


Published on Dec 17, 2018
News discussion with JUNIUS MALTBY! Welcome to the channel. Thank you for being here.

Tip Jar:
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189oA75Fma4jNAkcDetQX6YQpsBDktH9Wm

FAIR USE STATEMENT
This video may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. This material is being made available within this transformative or derivative work for the purpose of education, commentary and criticism, is being distributed without profit, and is believed to be "fair use" in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107.

For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/
 

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Dow Jones Death Cross! Is It Panic Time??
StackingThreePercenter


Published on Dec 17, 2018
Hey everyone - very quick update here today regarding what is going on in the stock market. Thanks for tuning in!

Be sure to please consider hitting SUBSCRIBE for all my content!
 

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Uncharted Waters for Economy as S & P 500 Index Closes at 14-Month Low.
maneco64


Published on Dec 18, 2018
 

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Share Talk Bulletin Board Heroes, Tuesday 18th December 2018
Share Talk


Published on Dec 18, 2018
A charting look at some of the most followed stocks on the London market, Zak Mir covers.

Clear Leisure (CLP)
Great Western (GWMO)
Iq-ai Ltd (IQAI)
Kefi Minerals (KEFI)
Mporium Grp (MPM)
Orosur Mining (OMI)
Salvarx Grp Plc (SALV)
Ten Life (TENG)

@ZaksTradersCafe deductive reasoning as to what should happen next in terms of the newsflow regarding the companies listed in this video.

Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.
 

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Global Stocks Rebound As Dollar Tumbles, Oil Flash Crashes


by Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/18/2018 - 07:29


After Monday's furious selloff which saw a relentless barrage of heavy sell programs as one or more hedge funds threw in the towel and liquidated at any price, Tuesday has seen global markets and US equity futures stage a modest rebound while shares in Europe pared a drop following a weak session in Asia after Xi Jinping failed to impress traders with any new stimulus measures during his much anticipated speech. The dollar tumbled, oil flash crashed while Treasuries, gold and the yen advanced as neurotic traders peeked from under their bomb shelters.



Starting the session's main event, Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to offer any fresh commitments to open or stimulate the world’s second-biggest economy in a keynote speech. That compounded the gloom surrounding riskier assets, and sent Chinese equities lower while both the MSCI Asia Pacific and MSCI Emerging Market indexes retreated (for more details see our recap here).



In a speech marking 40 years of market liberalization, Xi called on Tuesday for the unswerving implementation of reforms on Beijing’s terms, saying no one could boss it around. In remarks lasting nearly an hour-and-a-half, Xi called for support for the state economy and development of the private sector, and said China would expand efforts at opening up and ensure the implementation of major reforms. But the one thing that traders were looking for was missing, as Xi offered no new measures, resulting in more early session selling.

Europe's Stoxx 600 Index initially followed Asia lower, but recovered most of its losses as the session progressed. Futures for the S&P 500 Index showed a rebound after the underlying gauge plunged to the lowest in 14 months on Monday.



Even with the reversal in sentiment, the S&P 500 is almost 8% lower in December - heading for its worst month since 2010.

“We’re facing the biggest December fall in U.S. stocks since 1931 and this is striking and worrying at the same time,” said Chris Bailey, European strategist at international financial services firm Raymond James. “We are at a regime shift moment and the debate is how big that regime shift will be.”

The risk-on tone returned after the dollar suddenly tumbled, starting a steep decline shortly after 2am ET, which dragged the Bloomberg Dollar Index lower for a second day before the Fed begins a two-day policy meeting.



As the dollar extended its slump, Treasuries advanced as traders positioned for the Fed’s policy decision, with yields on 10Y TSYs dropping as much as 3.6bps to 2.82%, the lowest level since Aug 27. Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell to a one-week low of 0.23 percent.



Perhaps the most notable overnight move was in the commodities market, where one day after WTI dropped below $50 for the first time since July 2017, oil flash crashed shortly after Europe opened for trading, plunging as much as $1.50 with no obvious driver.



The sharp price drop followed reports from the US that their shale oil output is to top 8mln BPD by year end. There have also been comments from Russian Energy Minister Novak who states that December output is around Octobers levels which are slightly higher than in November; meaning that Russia’s output has increased not decreased following the OPEC+ deal where they pledged a cut of 228,000 BPD. Later today we have API Weekly Stocks which are expected to present a 3.25MMbbls draw, which may offer prices some respite from the current downward pressure. Gold has benefited from dollar weakness reaching week highs of USD 1249.83/oz ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. While Palladium has fallen from the record high of USD 1269.5/oz reached in the previous session. Elsewhere Chinese steel and raw materials have fallen alongside the broader risk sentiment and after President Xi’s speech where no new specific reform measures were stated.

Elsewhere in FX, on a weak-dollar day, the euro rose shrugging off the IFO survey showing that German business sentiment deteriorated further to its lowest level in more than two years.



Norway’s krone dropped to a one-year low amid low liquidity and as oil prices tumbled to more than a one-year low. New Zealand’s dollar rallied after an index of business confidence rose to the highest in eight months, triggering stop- loss buying against the Aussie
While sentiment reversed from yesterday's apocalyptic mood, there still seems little that can halt the sell-off in equities so investors are increasingly pinning their hopes on the Fed taking a dovish turn this week. MSCI’s world stock index has fallen 10 percent this year and is set for its worst year in a decade.

While a rate hike is widely expected, we noted earlier why a rate hike tomorrow is looking increasingly iffy. President Donald Trump has ramped up his criticism of policy makers, tweeting that “it is incredible” the Fed was even considering another rate rise and on Tuesday morning Trump said he hopes "the people over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make yet another mistake".

It's not just the Fed that poses a last minute hurdle, with more potential trouble looming: on Friday, the same day as quad witching, the US government will likely shut down unless Trump and Schumer find a last minute compromise. For now that looks unlikely.

“Any news is being taken as bad,” regardless of the context, said Evan Lucas, chief market strategist at Investsmart Group, on Bloomberg Television. "We are trading like we’re in a bear market, with little likelihood of relief in volume-thinned markets in the holiday period ahead," he said.

Expected data include November housing starts and building permits. No major companies are reporting

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,566.50
  • Brent Futures down 2.8% to $57.95/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,249.48
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.91
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 340.62
  • MXAP down 0.9% to 148.16
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 478.00
  • Nikkei down 1.8% to 21,115.45
  • Topix down 2% to 1,562.51
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 25,814.25
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 2,576.65
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 36,312.85
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 5,589.47
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,062.11
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 0.232%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1373
  • Brent Futures down 3.3% to $57.63/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 2.597%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 1.383%
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
  • European Union will rule out doing mini deals with the U.K. to ease the chaos of Britain crashing out without a divorce agreement, and instead take unilateral steps to protect its interests, a person familiar said
  • U.K. said to prepare migration policy favoring high earners, after months of arguments over which applicants should be given preference
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping said his government will continue a multi-year effort against pollution, poverty and financial sector risks, while underlining commitment to the multilateral global trading system
  • China Daily reports individual income tax reduction will be on top of Chinese government’s task list next year, citing an unidentified official
  • President Trump slammed the Fed on the eve of its policy meeting for “even considering” another rate increase, and suggested the central bank has no reason to move because inflation is low
  • Fed rate hikes are extremely rare when stocks are this beaten up
  • Reserve Bank of Australia struck a slightly dovish tone in minutes of its last policy meeting of the year
  • Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz says he isn’t expecting a recession in 2019. The economy is operating near capacity and inflation on target means rates should be more normal and move toward a neutral range of 2.5% to 3.5%
  • China’s holdings of notes, bills and bonds dropped for a fifth month to $1.14t in October, from $1.15t in September, according to Treasury Department data
  • Crude settled below $50 a barrel in New York for the first time in more than a year and continued falling in after-hours trading
  • The EU will rule out doing mini deals with the U.K. to ease the chaos of Britain crashing out without a divorce agreement, and instead take unilateral steps to protect its interests, a person familiar with the bloc’s plans said
  • M&G Investments is building up its war chest of U.S. Treasuries on wagers that yields in the world’s most liquid bonds are likely near their peak
  • This week, Sweden’s central bank may be facing its most difficult meeting since 2011. That’s the last time the bank raised interest rates and, in so doing, set in motion a cycle that ultimately ended in the deployment of crisis measures
  • Germany’s federal government plans to increase gross borrowing by around 15 percent to 199 billion euros next year to accommodate refinancing of the nation’s “bad bank” fund that was set up during the height of the financial crisis
Asian equities were lower across the board following the slump seen on Wall St. as investors readied for an expected Fed
hike against the backdrop of slowing global growth. The S&P fell to the lowest in 14 months, while the Dow declined in excess
of 500 points as shares in Amazon and Goldman Sachs led the declines. ASX 200 (-1.2%) was pressured by energy names amid
the price action in the complex, while Nikkei 225 (-1.8%) underperformed due to a firmer currency on safe-haven demand as
equities continued selling off. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) extended on opening losses as
Chinese President Xi Jinping gave his landmark speech at the Beijing Conference in which he provided little by way of details
regarding trade developments with the US. Chinese President Xi said China is to stick to supply side reforms, to promote trade convenience and a multilateral trading system. President Xi added that no-one is in a position to dictate what China should or shouldn't do and opposes nations forcing their ideas on others and that China may face unimaginable difficulties ahead, but will control major risks in the economy.

Top Asian News
  • China Inks Deals With Shell, Majors as Xi Signals Open Trade
  • Xi Says China to Continue With ‘Three Battles’ on Economic Risks
  • Japan’s FY2019 Budget to Top 100 Trillion Yen for First Time
  • Shopping Crunch Time Triggers Race to Sign Taiwan Wind Deals
Major European Indices are now mixed after beginning firmly in the red at the start of the session. Underperformance is seen in the FTSE 100 (-0.5%) and the AEX (-0.8%) with both weighed on by index heavyweight Royal Dutch Shell (-1.8%) in the red as they are reportedly planning to purchase Endeavor Energy for USD 8bln. Sectors are similarly in the red with underperformance seen in energy names due to oversupply fears weighing on oil prices and the aforementioned Royal Dutch Shell story. Significant outperformance is seen in the European Auto’s & Parts sector, with auto names such as Daimler (+1.6%) and BMW (+1.0%) causing the DAX (+0.4%) to be the outperforming European index. Other notable equity

Top European News
  • EU to Rule Out ‘Managed No-Deal’ as Bloc Boosts Brexit Planning
  • German Business Confidence Worsens, Putting Rebound in Doubt
  • Rehn Says ECB Should Consider Reviewing Policy Framework
  • Shire Drops for Second Day as Earlier Index Rebalancing Looms
In FX, the JPY was the best G10 performer and beneficiary of safe-haven positioning amidst broad risk-aversion in global equities and especially oil that continues to price in a return to oversupply vs demand. Consequently, Usd/Jpy has pulled back further from recent highs to retest December lows not far above 112.00, but may encounter some technical bids around 112.40 (100 DMA) given decent option expiries in the same area (1 bn from 112.40 to 112.55).
  • GBP/AUD/EUR - All firmer vs the Greenback, as the DXY skirts nearest sub-97.000 chart support at 96.850, and the Buck’s defensive pre-Fed tone overshadows independent factors that may otherwise keep the Pound, Aussie Dollar and single currency suppressed. For Sterling, Brexit remains the obvious and main stumbling block, but Cable is sitting more comfortably above 1.2600 and testing the 10 DMA at 1.2640, while Aud/Usd is staging another attempt to breach 0.7200 even though the Aud/Nzd cross has recoiled sharply to sub-1.0500 levels on the aforementioned Kiwi outperformance. Eur/Usd has also established a firmer base above a big figure, at 1.1300, and eyeing strong chart resistance at the foot of a daily formation just before a cluster of other upside targets around 1.1400 where a decent 1 bn expiry runs off. However, more downbeat German macro news in the form of December’s Ifo survey has also dampened some of the Euro’s more bullish momentum.
  • CAD/CHF - The Loonie is struggling to bounce off 1.3400+ lows given the latest collapse in crude prices, which is also undermining the likes of the NOK despite March 2019 Norges Bank rate hike guidance from Governor Olsen, while the Franc continues to meet offers ahead of the 0.9900 mark and has eased back from peaks vs the Eur towards 1.1300 following more reports of convergence between Italy and the EU on the 2019 budget.
In commodities, Brent (-2.3%) and WTI (-2.7%) have continued to decline amidst concerns of an oversupplied market, with WTI dropping to October 2017 levels. The price decline follows reports from the US, the world’s largest oil producer, that their shale oil output is to top 8mln BPD by year end. There have also been comments from Russian Energy Minister Novak who states that December output is around Octobers levels which are slightly higher than in November; meaning that Russia’s output has increased not decreased following the OPEC+ deal where they pledged a cut of 228,000 BPD. Later today we have API Weekly Stocks which are expected to present a 3.25MMbbls draw, which may offer prices some respite from the current downward pressure. Elsewhere, Libya’s NOC has declared a force majeure on operations at the El Sharara oil field, stating that production will only restart after alternative security arrangements are implemented. For context, this follows the force majeure declared on the fields exports last week.

Gold has benefited from dollar weakness reaching week highs of USD 1249.83/oz ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. While Palladium has fallen from the record high of USD 1269.5/oz reached in the previous session.
US Event Calendar
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.23m, prior 1.23m
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts MoM, est. 0.01%, prior 1.5%
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.26m, prior 1.26m
  • 8:30am: Building Permits MoM, est. -0.4%, prior -0.6%
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-18/global-stocks-rebound-dollar-tumbles-oil-flash-crashes
 

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REVEALED: American sportswear brand sells clothes made by 'forced labour' in China's Muslim internment camps as new satellite image shows one such centre where Uighurs are 'detained and brainwashed'

  • Chinese government is forcing detainees in Xinjiang's camps to work in manufacturing and food industries
  • One of the factories, Hetian Taida Apparel, has been shipping clothes to Badger Sportswear in the US
  • Badger CEO John Anton said that the company would source sportswear elsewhere while it investigates
  • According to UN estimates, up to one million Uighurs are detained in camps in the far west region of China
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...r-traced-factory-Chinas-internment-camps.html
 

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How to Lose Your Offshore Tax Exclusion
Nomad Capitalist


Published on Dec 18, 2018
https://nomadcapitalist.com/

What is Bona Fide residence of Panama?

Some of our clients came to us convinced that it is enough to spend only one day in Panama a year and all your US tax will go away.

Don't look for the magic bullet and don't make this typical mistake in handling offshore business, it seems too good to be true.

DISCLAIMER: The information in this video should not be considered tax, financial, investment, or any kind of professional advice. Only a professional diagnosis of your specific situation can determine which strategies are appropriate for your needs. Nomad Capitalist can and does not provide advice unless/until engaged by you.