• Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
  • There are no markets
  • "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

louky

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And top of the box, 1296.....after bottom of inner box held this morning...78, 87, 96 like a step ladder again

3rd try on top of box now, that's when the odds increase that it's gonna make a higher high. 1305 pivot is next significant area
 

louky

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Historically, 3rd try is suppose to be a high high. Odds favor lil higher and we also got the fake news this morning as expected to support that theory. If not, then concern becomes triple top.

Top of the box, a beast. Probably better if it comes up short of 1296 here. 3rd try suppose to go high high.

1298 intraday top so far, 1296 (top of box) of course on the weekly

 

louky

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1278 bottom of inner box is key support. i posted this morning get ready for fake news there, but i deleted it. Of course dovish fed minutes and positive trade news came. If 78 goes, i would expect 1251, maybe even down to 40's. Sustained move below 51 pivot would be very bad
 
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louky

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How to create follow through after a PPT save reversal from a 20% decline on no actual news or change in quality of financial environment/ economic outlook:

4 day central bank jawbone attack:
Powell: Flexible on bal. sheet
Bostic: Only 1 hike
Mester: no urgency to raise
Bullard: Hikes cause recession
Rosengren: Patient
Evans: Wait
BOJ: We may need to print more.

Oh, and close .gov down so there's no economic data released and also so big money can position without being seen on cot reports

And that's how it's how it's done, folks
 
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louky

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Chart above shows it basically made a double bottom a few times. For now that's all i'm seeing for sure. No one knows if it's gonna crash further or if it will go to 3500-4000 next.

What does seem obvious is the fed will either reverse policy and turn the spigots back on or all out crash.
 

louky

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Of course US is hiding the data, but every where else you look, global slowdown is obvious. I was calling it the same week it started hitting the data, june 15 and still accelerating

IMG_20190110_072916.jpg

IMG_20190110_091214.jpg


IMG_20190110_071102.jpg


IMG_20190110_071850.jpg


IMG_20190110_071939.jpg


IMG_20190110_072523.jpg


Apple, samsung, lg, etc all cutting forecasts....
IMG_20190110_072615.jpg


Greatest economy of all times
IMG_20190110_072709.jpg


IMG_20190110_072959.jpg

IMG_20190110_073140.jpg
 
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louky

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Moar

Screenshot_20190110-090030_Google.jpg


Screenshot_20190110-090555_Google.jpg


Companies that have lowered guidance so far this month: Apple, Samsung, LG, Delta, Skyworks, Macy’s, Kohl’s, American Airlines

IMG_20190110_092725.jpg
 
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louky

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Has to do this thing one level (posted months in advance) at a time.

Unless there's crazy news/catalyst, that's the only way

[1269-1278-1287-1296]....1305
Years now, not months. One level at a time, slow and steady....only way it works....box levels
 

bemac

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It's not surprising the economy is doing poorly, what with the FRB tightening. The only question for us is, will metals drop along with stock prices or head even higher.
 
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@ Louky or Zed, thanks for the great thread. I've been checking it for a couple weeks now. What do you think the odds are of higher highs for the next year or so or hunker down before the shut down ends and the numbers come back out? Do you think the fed will stop raising rates or at least slow down from previous raises? Thanks
 

Strawboss

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Louky - a point...and then a question.

I dont think retail (big box stores) is a good leading indicator of where the economy is headed because it simply cant compete with Amazon. Its simply an industry that is on the way out...and has been for quite some time. Thats not to suggest your overall thesis is inaccurate - not at all.

Question - you mentioned few posts ago that during the shutdown - the big money can position itself without the COT reports reflecting their movements. A brilliant observation by the way - one which I hadnt even considered...which makes me wonder what an analysis of previous shutdowns would show re: subsequent market moves after the data/reports are released post shutdown...

Anyways - the question is...can you give odds on the next "major move" in gold? Which way do you think the big money is gonna go?
 
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Fed's Bullard: Fed Has Reached 'End Of The Road' On Rate Hikes - RTRS
Would that be bullish for the whole stock market? What if the Feds decide to take a different course and do the rips under the markets unattainable balance sheet?
 

nowon

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^ baby step towards less liquidity drain....also rumors of slowing or stopping QT, which would be bigger impact.

S&P500 moving up on lower volume, plus algos waiting to jump on any bad tweet news makes me nervous
 
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Uglytruth

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Somebody's wrong. What news is fake?

https://www.timesunion.com/business/article/Holiday-retail-numbers-up-in-2018-locally-13491852.php

Holiday retail sales up locally, nationally

By Diego Mendoza-Moyers
Updated 5:16 pm EST, Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Retailers across the country this year saw their biggest holiday sales increases in six years, and Capital Region malls remained bustling the day after Christmas -- a sign of robust sales numbers and a healthy local and national retail industry, according to several store managers and industry experts.




U.S. retail sales grew 5.1 percent to over $850 billion this year for the shopping season spanning Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which details in-person and online national retail sales across all payment types.




The report found that online shopping increased over 19 percent compared to 2017.


And while SpendingPulse found that department stores finished this season with a 1.3 percent decline in sales since 2017, local brick-and-mortar retailers told a different story.


The Best Buy location in Crossgates Mall saw a 20 percent increase in holiday sales over last year, powered by sales of smart voice assistants like Alexa, Google Home or Apple Home Pods, according to store manager Nick Wylner.


Other stores, like Nordstrom Rack at Colonie Center, have seen healthy sales numbers this holiday season boosted by popular Ugg and Nike products. This year's lack of snow, however, has driven fewer people to the store to buy things like winter jackets, gloves and scarves, said Erica Sims, the store's manager.


But even after the traditional pre-Christmas shopping season, shoppers were out in force.


The holiday season has essentially been extended by post-Christmas clearance deals and shoppers using gift cards or returning to stores to make returns and leaving with additional purchased items, according to Ted Potrikus, president and CEO of the Retail Council of New York State.


"The Christmas shopping season used to be this tidy period that started on Black Friday and ended on Christmas eve," Potrikus said, adding that the rest of this week would be "particularly" important for retailers. "(The shopping season) is not over yet."


Most retailers are seeing a growth in sales "despite" many outside factors, like the significant growth of online retailers and increasing overhead costs, Potrikus said.


That disarray on Wall Street came late in the shopping season as opposed to earlier helped as well, he said.


"If some of that news started in November, people would've maybe sat on their wallets a little bit more," Potrikus said.


This year's holiday shopping season was buttressed by record Black Friday sales, as well.


Sales numbers during Thanksgiving weekend have increased steadily since 2015, with Black Friday sales this year totaling $6.2 billion across the U.S. — a 23.6 percent increase over 2017, according to Adobe Analytics.


At the Crossgates Best Buy, Wylner said the store saw $3 million in sales over Black Friday weekend — up from $2.2 million from the same weekend last year.


And U.S. Cyber Monday sales topped out at $7.9 billion, up 19 percent from 2017.


Other new trends include the "buy-on-line-pick-up-in-store" orders, which have more than doubled since January of this year, according to Adobe's report.


Mastercard's SpendingPulse also found healthy growth in the U.S. apparel industry, as well as in home improvement spending.


Electronics and appliance sales decreased slightly, down 0.7 percent.


Overall, the robust — and continuing — sales retailers have experienced recently have slowed concern about the declining health of the retail industry, Potrikus said.


"Ultimately," he said, "when all then numbers come in...then it will look like it was a fairly good Christmas shopping season."
 

louky

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Louky - a point...and then a question.

I dont think retail (big box stores) is a good leading indicator of where the economy is headed because it simply cant compete with Amazon. Its simply an industry that is on the way out...and has been for quite some time. Thats not to suggest your overall thesis is inaccurate - not at all.

Question - you mentioned few posts ago that during the shutdown - the big money can position itself without the COT reports reflecting their movements. A brilliant observation by the way - one which I hadnt even considered...which makes me wonder what an analysis of previous shutdowns would show re: subsequent market moves after the data/reports are released post shutdown...

Anyways - the question is...can you give odds on the next "major move" in gold? Which way do you think the big money is gonna go?
I mean, that's a fair point about retail, but they aren't the main thesis, moreso "tacked" on (i edit the post to add) as the news was hitting yesterday to show the theme (news) is starting to spread across industries/sectors.
 
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louky

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Been saying it two months, will be hitting US data soon. June 15th global growth died.
If anyone followed this thread, the theme i get on is like 6 months in advance of the news. I can quote back to 2016, but 2017 it was the $ top and crash no one saw. Called it in dec 16 jan 17. Then i flippped on the exact low.

2017 dec, i was posting "inflation scare first time in years", then that was the 1st half of 2018 news theme.

In summer 18, i switched to global growth dead theme. Now here it is manifesting in the news. People can choose to see it or disagree. I'm not saying US crashed already, but the slowdown is here and I said it was coming 6 months ago while eveyone else was/is still on the trump pump sugar high.
 
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