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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Goldhedge

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Is it me or does Jim seem a bit tipsy?
Jim is old. 78?

I think he has false teeth? Also he may be on pain meds, or 'old people' drugs?

I read "Our Crowd" the book Jim references. It talks about the beginnings of Wall St and the families that would sell securities to each other. They wore top hats and when a security was sold they'd pull it out from inside the hat!

There was honor between families back then. Nothing like it is today. Jim is related to the old money families "Seligman" if I recall? Jim grew up as a kid at the feet of Jessie Livermore. He is called 'Mr Gold' because he sold his gold holdings at the very top - the day before gold dropped back in the 1970's. He has related that he 'was told' that gold was going down the next day (by the old money family ties).

Jim says if you want to understand finance... read the book.
 

Zed

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Jim is old. 78?

I think he has false teeth? Also he may be on pain meds, or 'old people' drugs?

I read "Our Crowd" the book Jim references. It talks about the beginnings of Wall St and the families that would sell securities to each other. They wore top hats and when a security was sold they'd pull it out from inside the hat!

There was honor between families back then. Nothing like it is today. Jim is related to the old money families "Seligman" if I recall? Jim grew up as a kid at the feet of Jessie Livermore. He is called 'Mr Gold' because he sold his gold holdings at the very top - the day before gold dropped back in the 1970's. He has related that he 'was told' that gold was going down the next day (by the old money family ties).

Jim says if you want to understand finance... read the book.
Yeah, I know a little bit about who he is... was just wondering why he appears as he does. He seems melancholy, I guess he is just depressed about where this will all go.
 

Zed

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Gold Daily - On a potential break out here, remember that the last candle needs to complete. Ideally it does so with a clean vault over the 1425 level... 1440 for confirmation then we are on another up-leg by the looks of it.

AUUSD-4H-20190711-1.png
 

Zed

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Hemke places his bets on whether the short term brings a beat down or short squeeze:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/cftc-data-warning-signs-craig-hemke-10-072019.html
Often, when a gold stock finally wakes up, it just goes on a screaming tear. Anybody expecting a normal nervous correction as an entry point can be left right out of the move. A bit like silver... you thought she was dead, then the bitch sits bolt upright and parties for weeks on end. Caution often works against you in the PM market when a real move comes. It seems to need to leave as many on the station as it can.

This is looking strong, very strong ---> not such a good thing really, we have yet to get the 'why'. Is it just due, or are we, as Jim says, on the verge of a systemic crisis.

2c FWIW.
 

Zed

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ASX Goldies +~2.5% straight out of the gate today with 15 mins of trading under our belt.
 

Zed

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Gold 4H - The do or die moment is here.

AUUSD-4H-20190711-2.png
 

Zed

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There may be a day that an ounce of gold is worth as much as a house property.
I really hope not, just for the other connotations of that sort of price.
 

Goldhedge

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He seems melancholy, I guess he is just depressed about where this will all go.
He appears to have lost weight. Face used to be fuller.

Getting old ain’t for sissies....
 

Strawboss

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Often, when a gold stock finally wakes up, it just goes on a screaming tear. Anybody expecting a normal nervous correction as an entry point can be left right out of the move. A bit like silver... you thought she was dead, then the bitch sits bolt upright and parties for weeks on end. Caution often works against you in the PM market when a real move comes. It seems to need to leave as many on the station as it can.

This is looking strong, very strong ---> not such a good thing really, we have yet to get the 'why'. Is it just due, or are we, as Jim says, on the verge of a systemic crisis.

2c FWIW.
Yup. This is why I bought some more options last week even though gold was "overbought" at that moment. I wanted to not have the regrets of having missed the move if it just runs without looking back.

However - I still have some dry powder in case (when) we get the inevitable correction.

But - I am convinced that we are in the early, early stages of a major move in gold/silver/miners. The next good buying opportunity will see me back up the truck and load up.
 

Cigarlover

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Often, when a gold stock finally wakes up, it just goes on a screaming tear. Anybody expecting a normal nervous correction as an entry point can be left right out of the move. A bit like silver... you thought she was dead, then the bitch sits bolt upright and parties for weeks on end. Caution often works against you in the PM market when a real move comes. It seems to need to leave as many on the station as it can.

This is looking strong, very strong ---> not such a good thing really, we have yet to get the 'why'. Is it just due, or are we, as Jim says, on the verge of a systemic crisis.

2c FWIW.
yea this doesn't feel like the typical summer doldrums at all.
 

Goldhedge

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This is why I bought some more options last week
Aught to start an options thread to explain how you do them. Strategies etc.

Not many know about them - including me.
 

Strawboss

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Aught to start an options thread to explain how you do them. Strategies etc.

Not many know about them - including me.
Its a complicated subject for sure...

The education would be somewhat exhaustive.

The KEY is to understand that when you buy an option (it doesnt matter if its a call or a put) - there is a 2 out of 3 chance that you are gonna be wrong. Yes - that wasnt a mistake. There is a 67% chance that you are WRONG.

So - first lesson is...you have to be comfortable with that fact. If you cant handle that - then dont deal with options.

The 2nd fact is that you can lose money even if you are right. Yes - you heard that correctly as well. You can be right on direction - and STILL lose money. Trust me on these things. I have made most of the mistakes that are possible in options...

So...the KEY to succcess with options is that you have to nail the DIRECTION of the "next" move...AND you have to buy enough time to let that move happen.

So - my "strategy" if you can call it such a thing...is that I make a "guess" as to the direction and a target...along with how much time I "think" it will take to achieve said target. And then I buy an option that is between 20% and 50% out of the money in the direction of the anticipated move.

And then I buy at least 2.5 times the time needed to achieve the move although 3x or even 4x the move is often desirable. The reason for this is because whatever the duration you buy with an option - most of the decay is gonna occur in the 2nd half. What that means in laymen terms is that if I buy an option with say 6 months remaining...it may lose 1/3 in the first 3 months and 2/3 in the 2nd 3 months. Does that make sense?

In other words - the KEY to options is to buy MORE time than you think you need (and then add even more time on top of that)...and ALWAYS sell when you approach the 50% remaining time threshold.

Now of course there are another 100 sub-strategies that are loosely correlated to what I am feebly attempting to describe here which I am not gonna get into.

Hell - I should offer to teach a course on options and how hillbillies can get rich on them...

Oh - others have already done that you say?

Dammit!!!!

Everytime I have a good idea - someone else has already beat me to the punch.
 

Zed

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Hell - I should offer to teach a course on options and how hillbillies can get rich on them...
You could do a PhD on that stuff! Especially the math behind it!
 

Strawboss

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You could do a PhD on that stuff! Especially the math behind it!
Yeah - just understanding the greeks and all is a course all in itself...

It gets really, really complicated the deeper into it you go. And no matter how much you "think" you know...there is ALWAYS the black swan to factor into the equation...

Trading options to me is like playing in NLH tournaments. You buy in fully expecting to lose your buy in. Every now and then you make it into the money...and the hope is that what you can win on those times you survive long enough more than covers the cost of all the buyins that went sideways on you. And every now and then...not often but statistically probable if you play the game long enough - you make it to a final table and strike gold...
 

Goldhedge

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You could do a PhD on that stuff! Especially the math behind it!
Meh, just pick some option and 'play' like you took a position and each day post comments what you're thinking...

Imaginary money for a real option. Might be interesting.
 

Zed

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Meh, just pick some option and 'play' like you took a position and each day post comments what you're thinking...

Imaginary money for a real option. Might be interesting.
Hoadley's options tools for excel are cheap and very helpful, if you want to get serious.

+ he is an Aussie so naturally they are fecking genius! :D

https://www.hoadley.net/options/options.htm
 

Zed

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Northern Star is one of my "ASX Goldies", as much as I like this stock it is starting to look very toppy. There could be a little more here but... it is either that or we bust through the top resistance line and we "change gear" to step up the speed of this advance. That is not the prudent bet!

NST-W-20190711-1.png
 

Zed

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ASX Goldies +~2.5% straight out of the gate today with 15 mins of trading under our belt.
Closed @ ~+2.2%
 

Strawboss

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Northern Star is one of my "ASX Goldies", as much as I like this stock it is starting to look very toppy. There could be a little more here but... it is either that or we bust through the top resistance line and we "change gear" to step up the speed of this advance. That is not the prudent bet!

View attachment 135886
Remember how Hawkeye would also's talk about when the stochastics would get embedded above 80? He considered 3 time periods above 80 as the "key" to the "embedded" status.

And his rule of thumb was that once it was in fact embedded - stay with it until it has a close below 80...I remember time after time he was right and sure enough - the price would keep pushing higher...
 

Cigarlover

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certainly looks like they are positioning for a large move. Might be time to pick up 1000 contracts. A 20 point move would make you a billionaire then. :). :summer:
 

Zed

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Failed Bond auction! Foreign money cautious over devaluation threat?
 

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Zed

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Bill Haynes 46-year market veteran and Founder of CMI Gold & Silver said:
“Eric, I’m telling you the indifference is incredible when it comes to gold and silver. I’ve been in the business for over four decades and I’ve seen 3 major bull markets in gold. And whenever I’ve seen indifference like we are currently seeing, each time a major bull market has followed.”
 

Zed

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Gold 4H - Still in the pattern. On higher support right now. If this holds the next swing upward could be the juice. For now we are still consolidating.

AUUSD-4H-20190712-1.png
 

Zed

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ASX Goldies ~-2.3% right out of the gates this AM! Hopefully gold perks up and we see some of that Friday buying that has been around of late!
 

Zed

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Gold 4H perking up, looks like support is holding. This could be good, looking like a shot @ the top of the pennant is in the works.
 

Zed

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Lately I have been venturing back into some stock forums to get a feel for sentiment. The gold threads are DEAD, I've posted a few charts and even the old die hard gold stock bugs are showing NO interest what so ever. This is just a fantastic setup! Take note of the sentiment people, when price action like this is only generating 'meh seen it all before' type comments on hardcore sites like this and NO comment what so ever on mainstream sites you are looking @ a major move. I'm getting more confident by the day that this is the real deal... and I am one cynical fecker, you get the "happy Zed" here, my normal trading demeanor is some what blacker! Call it a survival skill.

2c FWIW.
 
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JayDubya

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So.....best guess where it's taken us Zed?
My Mom says I can't go too far, and I need to be home by the time the street lights come on. Do you think we can go for a ride before then and get me back home in time?
Or do I need to swipe the old man's sleeping bag and coleman lantern?
 

Zed

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So.....best guess where it's taken us Zed?
IF we break upward the pattern projects ~1595. We run into some serious resistance from 1560 to 1600 odd so that target seems credible. We could get close to 1600, then I would then expect a decent correction.

This is using the classic pennant projection method.