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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Strawboss

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I just run into an interesting thought. There are two small funds that got in trouble recently, Woodford and another. They ran into liquidity issues on redemptions ie: they couldn't sell assets to meet redemptions, no liquidity, no cash! ... and they are tiny. What the hell happens if a biggun gets hit hard for redemptions?!
CB intervention. Back room deals to keep shit afloat.

Me thinks keeping things afloat and the system functioning in a "normal" state are the overarching objectives...at least for the moment. How long they can achieve that before the inevitable black swan arrives...who knows...
 

Zed

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CB intervention. Back room deals to keep shit afloat.
There is a gobsmacking amount of 'shit' to buy if you are going to keep everything afloat!
 

Zed

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Me thinks keeping things afloat and the system functioning in a "normal" state are the overarching objectives...at least for the moment. How long they can achieve that before the inevitable black swan arrives...who knows...
I think they are going to cut in a preemptive move and I think that the market is telling us it will fail. It may just trigger the panic ie: market thinks... WTF do they know that we don't?! Quick SELL!
 

Strawboss

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There is a gobsmacking amount of 'shit' to buy if you are going to keep everything afloat!
They are fighting deflation. The only way to keep everything afloat is to create inflation and the only way to create it is to buy more shit with newly created fiat.

The more piles of shit they can create...the longer they can extend the shitshow. Each pile of shit becomes another "asset class" that can be monetized and securitized...
 

Zed

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The only way to keep everything afloat is to create inflation and the only way to create it is to buy more shit with newly created fiat.
Which means more debt in your system, even if it is directly monetized. Maybe that is the response if the USD goes too high, maybe this triggers the real "race to the bottom".
 

Strawboss

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Which means more debt in your system, even if it is directly monetized. Maybe that is the response if the USD goes too high, maybe this triggers the real "race to the bottom".
Bingo. And gold is sniffing this out.

Miners are loving the falling oil prices. A detente with Iran is a blessing.

The wind is at our backs fellas...

Its gonna be one helluva ride the next few years...

Batten down the hatches...there are multiple hurricanes incoming...
 

Zed

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Its gonna be one helluva ride the next few years...
Yeah, I'm struggling to believe that it is finally here... but... I think I am seeing enough to convince.
 

Zed

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Thompson's Gold Chart...



... as an alternate view. He has it flying through the resistance @ 1600 that I see as a correction point.
 

savvydon

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Thompson's Gold Chart...



... as an alternate view. He has it flying through the resistance @ 1600 that I see as a correction point.
Right. Looks as if maybe the $1500 orange resistance line should be moved up a little closer to the fib 61.8% line.

The dollar strengthening this morning as we are seeing a pause in the metals fireworks. I would have liked to see today have been the cherry on top of the week's sundae but maybe not... we c
 

savvydon

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Fridays tend to be opposite days, especially after big moves, at least from what I’ve noticed
Unfortunately it looks like you got that right. The past hour has been a concerted epic beat down, with silver down over 50 cents during that time.
 

jelly

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Unfortunately it looks like you got that right. The past hour has been a concerted epic beat down, with silver down over 50 cents during that time.
I was really hoping silver would hold 16.20, but it’s not looking good. Let’s see how we close.
 

Son of Gloin

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Thread bookmark. Just want to keep getting notices.
 
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They are fighting deflation. The only way to keep everything afloat is to create inflation and the only way to create it is to buy more shit with newly created fiat.

The more piles of shit they can create...the longer they can extend the shitshow. Each pile of shit becomes another "asset class" that can be monetized and securitized...
That may wipe out the middle class in the coming years.
 

Strawboss

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I havent looked at charts much lately...been operating more on "feel"...the reason is that I know we are in a kind of unique situation with gold/silver right now...and using charts and comparing to past activity kind of misses the point. Thats my elevator answer (short and to the point).

So...why do I think we are in a unique situation?

Well - there are many reasons...in no particular order...

1. Iran. The US is putting the screws to them economically - and has embargoed a tanker of theirs. So - they just took one of the UK's. I dont know how this is gonna play out - but, I think at a minimum...its gonna keep tensions high. So far - it seems like very measured reactions all around by all parties...and I think everyone knows the stakes. If the Strait of Hormuz gets shut down - its game over for the global economy. Period.
2. Deutche Bank. $49 Trillion notional in derivatives exposure and their equity base is razor thin...its extremely likely that if DB goes tits up - it will make Lehman look mild in comparison. The problem is that DB is getting worse by the day and only the insiders know the true danger (and how close it is). All we can do is speculate - but its as serious of a threat to the global economy as the situation in Iran right now.
3. The Fed getting ready to cut interest rates. While the economy is supposedly roaring and unemployment is supposedly at multi-decade lows (or even lower than that). This smells very, very fishy to me and probably most of you. There is something else at play here that we are not privy to knowing about.
4. China. Trump is playing hardball with them and it is having serious repercussions on global supply chains. Lots of uncertainty and defensive posturing taking place. Companies the world over are having to make strategic contingency plans which are time consuming to develop and implement - and detract focus on other strategic initiatives that could lead to growth.
5. Debt ceiling is slowly coming into focus. There are no guarantees that it will be raised smoothly or easily. While I dont think this will be a problem per se...the potential is indeed there.
6. Jeffrey Epstein and the impending release of documents that supposedly will implicate some very powerful people all over the world (including politicians of both parties here in the US). That could have some very serious implications/complications for governance and public trust in government institutions..
7. Overall US government debt levels.
8. The gold:silver ratio being as far out of whack as it is.

I am sure there are more - but these are the 8 that come to mind...

While not all equal - they each have the ability to influence gold prices in the near to mid term depending on how things play out...I could make a strong argument that they already ARE influencing gold/silver prices. Now - which particular event/theme is most affecting price? Your guess is as good as mine.

In a normal world...in normal times - I would probably be thinking about getting a bit defensive after the runup in gold and silver prices the past few weeks. But - in light of the 6 topics mentioned - I just think trying to trade using charts and all that right now completely misses the point...

I have decided that for me - I am gonna just sit tight and be right - as Jesse Livermore used to say. If I get a correction - I will deploy my dry powder. If I dont - I will have to be content with my current positions. But - I am sure that at some point - we will get a correction and I will have my chance to load the boat so to speak.

Just my Sunday afternoon attempt to verbalize in a coherent fashion what I am thinking about as I prepare for the week(s) ahead...
 

Goldhedge

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ABX is supposedly the bully on the block to goldbugs... but there seems to be something new going on in mining ... would you wait for a retest, or jump in with both feet...?

5yr

Screen Shot 2019-07-21 at 2.43.41 PM.png



10yr

Screen Shot 2019-07-21 at 2.44.12 PM.png
 

Goldhedge

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The Fed getting ready to cut interest rates. ... There is something else at play here that we are not privy to knowing about.
X22 Report suggests that Trump is positioning himself to eliminate the FED. In a nutshell... keeps bashing the FED for always doing the 'wrong thing' while pointing out the 'right thing' until the economy crashes and he can point to what he's said all along as being what they should have done. The people will (wake up finally??) demand the FED be severely haltered, or eliminated... I prefer the latter.

Companies the world over are having to make strategic contingency plans which are time consuming to develop and implement - and detract focus on other strategic initiatives that could lead to growth.
Having a strategic contingency plan should always be part of a business model. That they're finally thinking along those lines and perhaps doing something about it is a good thing. Warren Buffet said '...you always find out who's swimming naked when the tied goes out.'
 

dpong

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@Goldhedge I don't own Barrick, but all the charts I'm looking at say there is most definitely something new going on in mining and I already jumped in with 3 feet. I have a fourth foot in reserve.
 

dpong

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I make no claims as to whether I'm any good at timing or stock picking. But here is what I did. I sold some gold miner positions I was holding on Feb 19th and began buying back in on June 17th. Subsequent action had me load the boat with Jr. Gold and Silver miners as well as GDXJ. I'm as long as I have ever been since 2016.

I believe the COT watchers expect Gold to get taken to the woodshed soon. If so, I will get stopped out of some of my position. But after that happens I would intend to load back up. I think what we are witnessing is something on a different order than what we have become accustomed to expect. A different texture.

For a gold bull, I expect to see gold start first, but then later be outperformed by silver. That is just now starting to occur. Then I expect to see mining stocks lead gold. Yes, that is happening now. Falling real interest rates are a plus, and Fed has made promises so they will cut rates or have some serious explaining to do. Very helpful. @Strawboss is on the mark, by observing that many trends are underway. Technical breakouts all over the place, too. Looks like a good environment to me.

sc-16.png

Ignore the horizontal green line on the chart. It is a random artifact.
 
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dpong

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Companies the world over are having to make strategic contingency plans which are time consuming to develop and implement - and detract focus on other strategic initiatives that could lead to growth.
Some associated with Austrian Economics have called this "regime uncertainty," meaning it is more difficult to make plans in an environment of regulatory uncertainty. And right now that uncertainty is global.
 

Goldhedge

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@Goldhedge I don't own Barrick, but all the charts I'm looking at say there is most definitely something new going on in mining and I already jumped in with 3 feet. I have a fourth foot in reserve.
The tide has changed.
 

Uglytruth

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I think the je deal will bring misdirection & false flags.

Lowering interest rates will keep older people in the work force longer.
I don't really expect it to anything to housing prices or sales.
 

Zed

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I havent looked at charts much lately...been operating more on "feel"...the reason is that I know we are in a kind of unique situation with gold/silver right now...and using charts and comparing to past activity kind of misses the point. Thats my elevator answer (short and to the point).

So...why do I think we are in a unique situation?

Well - there are many reasons...in no particular order...

1. Iran. The US is putting the screws to them economically - and has embargoed a tanker of theirs. So - they just took one of the UK's. I dont know how this is gonna play out - but, I think at a minimum...its gonna keep tensions high. So far - it seems like very measured reactions all around by all parties...and I think everyone knows the stakes. If the Strait of Hormuz gets shut down - its game over for the global economy. Period.
2. Deutche Bank. $49 Trillion notional in derivatives exposure and their equity base is razor thin...its extremely likely that if DB goes tits up - it will make Lehman look mild in comparison. The problem is that DB is getting worse by the day and only the insiders know the true danger (and how close it is). All we can do is speculate - but its as serious of a threat to the global economy as the situation in Iran right now.
3. The Fed getting ready to cut interest rates. While the economy is supposedly roaring and unemployment is supposedly at multi-decade lows (or even lower than that). This smells very, very fishy to me and probably most of you. There is something else at play here that we are not privy to knowing about.
4. China. Trump is playing hardball with them and it is having serious repercussions on global supply chains. Lots of uncertainty and defensive posturing taking place. Companies the world over are having to make strategic contingency plans which are time consuming to develop and implement - and detract focus on other strategic initiatives that could lead to growth.
5. Debt ceiling is slowly coming into focus. There are no guarantees that it will be raised smoothly or easily. While I dont think this will be a problem per se...the potential is indeed there.
6. Jeffrey Epstein and the impending release of documents that supposedly will implicate some very powerful people all over the world (including politicians of both parties here in the US). That could have some very serious implications/complications for governance and public trust in government institutions..
7. Overall US government debt levels.
8. The gold:silver ratio being as far out of whack as it is.

I am sure there are more - but these are the 8 that come to mind...

While not all equal - they each have the ability to influence gold prices in the near to mid term depending on how things play out...I could make a strong argument that they already ARE influencing gold/silver prices. Now - which particular event/theme is most affecting price? Your guess is as good as mine.

In a normal world...in normal times - I would probably be thinking about getting a bit defensive after the runup in gold and silver prices the past few weeks. But - in light of the 6 topics mentioned - I just think trying to trade using charts and all that right now completely misses the point...

I have decided that for me - I am gonna just sit tight and be right - as Jesse Livermore used to say. If I get a correction - I will deploy my dry powder. If I dont - I will have to be content with my current positions. But - I am sure that at some point - we will get a correction and I will have my chance to load the boat so to speak.

Just my Sunday afternoon attempt to verbalize in a coherent fashion what I am thinking about as I prepare for the week(s) ahead...
There is supposed to be red on my screen this AM... I mean really, but no ~+1.7% soooooooo, summin is cooking.
 

Strawboss

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There is supposed to be red on my screen this AM... I mean really, but no ~+1.7% soooooooo, summin is cooking.
About time you woke up.

Banker hours...
 

savvydon

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Meantime silver is back out of the gate in Asian trading this evening. The question is how far silver can stretch and still be reeled back in by shorting banks before it snaps and we see the mother of all squeezes?
 

Zed

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There is supposed to be red on my screen this AM... I mean really, but no ~+1.7% soooooooo, summin is cooking.
+~2.6% now... when really I should be off 1 or 2 % !?!
 

Zed

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+~2.6% now... when really I should be off 1 or 2 % !?!
~+3.2% EOD

Clearly anticipating something good for gold?!
 

Zed

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Gold 4H - Back to testing the breakout level. So far we've held up, this can be a good thing ---> aka "touch and go!".

AUUSD-4H-20190722-1.png
 

Zed

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We may even be setting up the channel for this next leg up... let see if we hold support though the opening session of the week. Looking due to rally short term BTW.
 

Scorpio

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Zed, to add to your list,
metals have been moving up with no help from the dollar action
the dollar trapped in a range, yet gold has went from 1280 to over 1400

which can be interesting if the dollar eventually breaks down, does that then accelerate the gold move?
very possible
 

Strawboss

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Hey Louky - whats the next set of boxes look like for gold and silver?
 

Zed

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Zed, to add to your list,
metals have been moving up with no help from the dollar action
the dollar trapped in a range, yet gold has went from 1280 to over 1400
Yeah, it is broadly in line with what I expected to happen. I'm not totally sure yet but I have been in the gold and USD up in sync camp for a long while now.

which can be interesting if the dollar eventually breaks down, does that then accelerate the gold move?
very possible
Right here I think that the USD might go to ~92 in the near future i.e. this year. I think it might be timed with a gold correction into the New Year. Loosely speaking, over say month on month periods I expect that they will travel together. If the USD gets to the 120 area then I think you might get USD weakness, then maybe they decouple. I see USD up then down, perhaps as a part of a concerted inflation effort by you lot to bring it down. I'm with Armstrong, the system only breaks if the USD fly's too high and I think the the Euro mess might just do that.

Gold is moving up soley due to concern for the system and loss of faith in government. I see it as a crisis hedge at the moment so I see the USD moves as somewhat independent for the time being.

JMO etc...

Going to sleep now. Try not to blow the place up before I get up again guys!
 
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Zed

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Everyone's the wealthiest they've ever been, Yay!
View attachment 136836
That one astonishes me, I've never been that complacent! Even at my poorest I'd just stop spending to keep a few thousand in the bank just in case. You know, back when I was young, horny and dumb.
 

Zed

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Louky's Boxes against a fibo projection ---> Just for reference. I will update and post every so often. Prompt me if you want a look see.

AUUSD-4H-20190723-1.png