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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

oldgaranddad

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The system melts up into the center of the empire. Note Gold prices virtually everywhere are at new all time highs yet still rallying in USD. The marginal buying is coming from the periphery and US smart money. Joe Sixpack USA will not get there for a while. JMO
Forget about Joe Sixpack buying, we need to know when Goldismoney2 members should start selling.
 

Strawboss

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this absolutely feels different...and keep in mind that we have a multi-year inverse head and shoulders we are breaking out of...That is a MASSIVE level of support that should drive gold much, much, much higher...

And with silver - there is the 30 year cup and handle formation that its breaking out of...

We are still very, very early in this gold/silver bull market. Think 2003ish...maybe even a bit earlier than that...

Except I think this time - its gonna outperform what it did from 2001-2011 in terms of percentage gains...

There are 10s of trillions...TRILLIONS of debt that needs to be extinguished (because its simply not repayable)...and the only asset on the planet that can extinguish that debt is...

Gold.

Now having said all that - I dont for a second believe this is gonna be easy. The volatility is gonna be heart wrenching... There are gonna be days when the miners drop 10% or more IN A SINGLE DAY!!!... thats how it works in a bull market. The bull will do its best to throw you off...

You (not addressing anyone in particular) must have the courage of your convictions...you must have confidence in your assessment of future price direction...and you must be prepared to hang on for dear life because the road is gonna be ROCKY...

Just my opinion...
 

Zed

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louky

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I posted in summer 2016 not to be buying plantinum until it made one more bottom.....wouldn't break this trend line until then. 3 years later lol

Magic 8 ball told me platinum needs to make one more bottom before crossing this trend line




I should also mention 2003 called and said it's prices are coming back
 

Zed

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Zed

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The Point of No Return?!
 

oldgaranddad

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Did China actually reduce buying gold or did their cabal off-shore their procurements as an Insurance policy against the Hong Kong contagion spreading to the mainland?

I guess we’ll find out later if they quell Hong Kong and we see a spike in reported imports or Hong Kong goes sideways and Chinese officials are living high on the hog in Africa selling gold to finance their exile.
 

Zed

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Did China actually reduce buying gold or did their cabal off-shore their procurements as an Insurance policy against the Hong Kong contagion spreading to the mainland?

I guess we’ll find out later if they quell Hong Kong and we see a spike in reported imports or Hong Kong goes sideways and Chinese officials are living high on the hog in Africa selling gold to finance their exile.
I think a lot of gold goes in through Hong Kong. So there is that.
 

Zed

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Gold 4H - Note the lower indicator, On Balance Volume. Yes I know this is a CFD and not futures or spot, but I get volume on this chart and volume is either iffy or non existent on the continuous contract charts. So it's a proxy...

XAUUSD-4H-20190816-1.png
 

Zed

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GDX and GLD 4H --> Same, same....

GDX-4H-20190816-1.png
GLD-4H-20190816-1.png
 

savvydon

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So do those elevated On Balance Volume readings get interpreted as we are over bought, or does it mean there is still a lot of buying momentum?
 

Strawboss

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So do those elevated On Balance Volume readings get interpreted as we are over bought, or does it mean there is still a lot of buying momentum?
It suggests that very strong hands are in play. Look at the volume when gold was rising vs. the past few days...big difference.

There is very little selling by "weak" hands...which is why attempts to push price down have been very weak so far...

This is a very, very bullish sign...reinforces the belief that we are in the very early stages of a multi-year move. The biggest returns will be made by those that sit tight...i.e. strong hands...(as evidenced by Zed's charts).

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong Zed....
 

Zed

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So do those elevated On Balance Volume readings get interpreted as we are over bought, or does it mean there is still a lot of buying momentum?
Not so much an oscillator but when you see price take a hit and OBV go up you can see that the marginal transaction is a buy. Reverse for selling... so typically it goes in the direction that the overall trend is.

That said it is at elevated levels... but given the sentiment change that is to be expected. We will probably define an OBV range over this next leg, a new norm if you like.
 

Zed

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Look @ the Jun 17 odd period on the CFD's, gold got a bump and OBV then flattened somewhat while gold rose. That was an indication of possible weakness ahead. OBV was then lack luster until Aug, indicating that it wasn't being chased hard. The interesting thing there is the chop we got on the thinner average volume. Aug was when the higher conviction kicked in.
 

Zed

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A refresher...

 

Goldhedge

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Does anyone have an idea where gold is going in the near term?

I'm getting mixed messages... up down... charts, or are we back in the range bound of yore... bouncing between two numbers again?
 

Weatherman

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Does anyone have an idea where gold is going in the near term?

I'm getting mixed messages... up down... charts, or are we back in the range bound of yore... bouncing between two numbers again?
A Japanese client asked his broker what was happening in the gold market. The broker responded fluctuations. The client quickly said fluct you white guys too!
 
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Zed

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Does anyone have an idea where gold is going in the near term?

I'm getting mixed messages... up down... charts, or are we back in the range bound of yore... bouncing between two numbers again?
It's holding up well, I think that it is winding up for a shot higher. I can't see that the drivers are letting off here... JMO 2c FWIW
 

Goldhedge

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It's like looking into a maelstrom of lines and charts all of a sudden....

I'm hoping for liftoff... but I suspect it's gonna be a slow burn....
 

Zed

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It's like looking into a maelstrom of lines and charts all of a sudden....

I'm hoping for liftoff... but I suspect it's gonna be a slow burn....
Fits and starts for a while.

Markets tend to sprint from one equilibrium to another.
 

Zed

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~-1.4% Friday nerves down here...
 

Weatherman

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~-1.4% Friday nerves down here...
I have a Wild A$$ Guess that the banksters short metals stocks before they bash the futures, then cover the stock shorts at lower prices to capture profits from their illegal theft. If true, then it may be possible to profitably front run the banksters by selling metals futures after unexpected weakness in stocks and before the banksters dump copious paper futures to depress the price. Since most of the paper dumps happen before the USA markets open, this would probably be limited to Asian markets. Zed's update about early stock weakness is a good example of the bankster paper dump that often follows:
dump.jpg


If you want to try this, do some serious paper trading first to see how it works out.
 

Zed

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Yes. Looks like we might see a bash for the weekly close.
 

Strawboss

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$1494 top of box. NCN...

lol
 

Zed

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Strawboss

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1565989051312.png

For those of you that have never seen people running INTO a burning building...well - here you go...
 

Zed

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Gold USD Weekly. -> Current and rough expectation from here for me. Pop then drop. I see that messy zone ~1575 to ~1625 odd as the likely target area then I think we correct. Normally I'd go for a 61.8% level but I think that we will do a ~50% give back and I think that the 1420 area stands out as the support to buy on. The correction will likely see us go into Jan 20. Expect a non confirmation of the top from gold stocks, they are already showing signs of nerves and I think that they will not be as enthusiastic into this interim top. If this plays the timing could see it match stock market weakness into the end of the year. It would also match Armstrong's cycle turn in Jan... this would then make Jan a big buy for all things gold. --> JMPO!

XAUUSD-W-20190817-1.png
 

Strawboss

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Gold USD Weekly. -> Current and rough expectation from here for me. Pop then drop. I see that messy zone ~1575 to ~1625 odd as the likely target area then I think we correct. Normally I'd go for a 61.8% level but I think that we will do a ~50% give back and I think that the 1420 area stands out as the support to buy on. The correction will likely see us go into Jan 20. Expect a non confirmation of the top from gold stocks, they are already showing signs of nerves and I think that they will not be as enthusiastic into this interim top. If this plays the timing could see it match stock market weakness into the end of the year. It would also match Armstrong's cycle turn in Jan... this would then make Jan a big buy for all things gold. --> JMPO!

View attachment 138933
My only potential disagreement is that I think it possible that gold retests the breakout area around $1370ish. And when it does - I would ALSO expect that the gold shares will not be aligned with that dip...I think they will hold strong and actually begin to rally even before gold reaches the backtest area...

And I think that will be the confirmation that we have LIFTOFF... and yes - I think it might align timing wise with what Zed is projecting...Jan/2020

ish...

Jan/2020ish
 

Zed

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My only potential disagreement is that I think it possible that gold retests the breakout area around $1370ish. And when it does - I would ALSO expect that the gold shares will not be aligned with that dip...I think they will hold strong and actually begin to rally even before gold reaches the backtest area...

And I think that will be the confirmation that we have LIFTOFF... and yes - I think it might align timing wise with what Zed is projecting...Jan/2020

ish...

Jan/2020ish
If the broader market is going to hell then anything could happen.
 

Zed

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Yet if you step back a little you get a clearer picture... 20 Years worth of monthly COT. That green flare that has gone up at the end of the volume chart is signalling a quiet panic in the financial world. The gold and silver parasites are in a little bit of bother here. I am sure that corrections will come and that they will be harsh but in the end I think it will just be so much noise on the way to a new high price in gold. These assholes and their short sighted greed have broken the system and they have put the very way we live at risk. That is not to say that all in the financial world are cut from the same cloth, it is just the sociopaths in charge you have to be careful of! Make sure that you have enough folding stuff on hand to get through a few months, just in case... and it's not like they give you any interest in the bank anyway... is it? I have that foreboding sense that push is coming to shove and that a bar fight is in the offing. As always, I will be happy to be wrong about EVERYTHING, but...

GC-MCOT-20190818-1.png
 

Zed

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Gold Monthly - I continue to see a pop then drop (correction) in this chart. The overall setup looks more like Jan 06 that early 11. Don't shoot me if I am wrong and I am sure that another day long bashing is in the offing but do look at the daily chart for yourselves. These Comex centered 'events' have no real follow through and are becoming increasingly more isolated. I think that they are not getting any bang for their $ here. If they have any sense of self preservation they will 'insure' whatever short exposure they have... then cover. When that happens you have to be careful, it will sends us northward too rapidly and the correction will feel a little savage. Anywhoooo, I can't say that I think we are there yet...

2c FWIW, DYODD, etc, etc, this is the looney fringe after all!

XAUUSD-M-20190818-1.png
 

Strawboss

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When any asset starts hugging the bolinger band like gold is currently - the best course of action is to sit tight and be right...

Eventually what will happen is that price will pull away from the bolinger band and retest the midpoint (which is currently at $1300 and about to rise).

The best way to play BBs is to ride the rise and then cash out when price begins to move away from the upper band - and then re-enter on a test of the midline...(with a sell below the midline).
 

Zed

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GDX Monthly, Weekly and Daily. Depending on your time frame I'd say that you'd want to be looking for exits over RSI 80 and entries toward that 50 level. I'd use it as an initial filter then look for other supporting indications. Also look for a sync in RSI and other indicators across all time frames. We are assuredly heading for an interim top here but... 31ish or 37ish? If we see that elliot impulse wave play out in gold it may be a pull back @ 31 then a hot shot @ 37 before we take any meaningful break. Trade according to your temperament.

GDX-M-20190818-1.png

GDX-W-20190818-1.png

GDX-D-20190818-1.png
 

Strawboss

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Zed - we should start playing the GDX game...using those 3 charts - and perhaps we can get Au-Myn to throw in a chart now and then and see if we can make some money trading GDX...sharing our thinking along the way.

Might be some young bucks in the crowd that could learn a thing or 2 from the elder bucks around the joint...

Whatcha think?
 

Zed

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Zed - we should start playing the GDX game...using those 3 charts - and perhaps we can get Au-Myn to throw in a chart now and then and see if we can make some money trading GDX...sharing our thinking along the way.

Might be some young bucks in the crowd that could learn a thing or 2 from the elder bucks around the joint...

Whatcha think?
I'm always nervous about that sort of thing. Risk management is key and people need to understand that trading WELL can still mean a 40% failure rate! With that failure rate you will either make big or lose big depending on your risk management and ability to take a loss. The common point of failure is that people marry positions and end up losing big.

This is why I don't like making public calls too much. People very quickly judge you, especially if you hit a rough streak, then they attack you with all the T/A is BS stuff etc, etc. I don't want go there again... I will leave GIM if it gets shitty like it was before, getting to old for that crap.

Plus it is actually illegal in the great country of Australia for me to give anything that can be construed as investment advice without a license. Although I doubt that would be an issue, I dunno.

Maybe a "follow my trade" type of thread might work, the very first stock forum I joined had that going on. People posted live trades and trading plans in real time and others got involved a bit if they had summin to add.