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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Zed

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GSR Monthly --> The party isn't on until this breaks down. 83 looks like the support level. Assuming that the other prognostications are correct we might see GSR @ 83 around the next short term high. If POG is around 1600 that implies POS around 19 odd. Then, after a correction, if we do pop to challenge the old high on the last part of this impulse wave then we should see the GSR break down below 83. I would call that a meaningful break. GSR would likely end up bouncing off the bottom of the BB's at that point... then the ABC correction comes into play and this will likely carve out a topping pattern of some sort.

JMO DYODD etc...


GSR-M-20190818-1.png
 

Zed

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GSR Monthly P&F --> Here you see just how key 83 is. Ignore the trendlies, they are from the candle chart, I just flicked to P&F for the screen grab.

GSR-M-20190818-2.png
 

Goldhedge

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Silver’s Call Options Count Keeps Climbing

October’s Call tally now stands at 16,487, giving us a gain of 2,145 more Long Calls in a weeks’ time with November adding 1,434 more Calls making its total 6,285 with December adding 3,666 more Calls totaling 85,506. The combined totals give us an additional 8,619 more purchased Calls acquired these past 5 trading days. Again, this may mean nothing but 2+ years of wasted time trying to gauge what we all see as a criminal element on the verge of getting its ass handed to them. We believe this may be their attempt at trying to get out of its soon to be crushed short position. We now have a total Call Option count at 135,502 Long Calls held verses the total Open Interest in Silver. If a large portion of these options are to be used to help exit short positions, then someone is really preparing for a crack up boom!
 

Zed

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Drops from peak with previous/similar cot positioning

May'06 23%
Mar'08 30%
Aug'11 46%
Jul'16 18%
COT isn't a timing tool. It's a back drop fundamental that is of some use when the market is in a constant trading pattern. We don't really know what the new normal will be but if you look @ the long term chart it does vary. OI increases with price and therefore bigger net positions will occur as the market expands. This is to be expected, sure keep an eye on it but don't worship it.

So yes I am sure that a big COT shake out is going to happen in the next few months (sometime!), in 2011 it started as a short squeeze which isn't the normal situation but then again things don't appear to be normal right at the moment do they?

I think that a broad view has to be taken here, gold is moving hard for a reason.
 

Zed

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~-2.5% on the open down here in the goldies... the rest of the market is juiced up again. Apparently all the problems went away on the weekend!
 

Strawboss

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COT isn't a timing tool. It's a back drop fundamental that is of some use when the market is in a constant trading pattern. We don't really know what the new normal will be but if you look @ the long term chart it does vary. OI increases with price and therefore bigger net positions will occur as the market expands. This is to be expected, sure keep an eye on it but don't worship it.

So yes I am sure that a big COT shake out is going to happen in the next few months (sometime!), in 2011 it started as a short squeeze which isn't the normal situation but then again things don't appear to be normal right at the moment do they?

I think that a broad view has to be taken here, gold is moving hard for a reason.
I concur sir!

Gold is indeed moving hard for a reason...

I keep saying - I think whats in front of us needs to be traded based more on feeling than traditional technical indicators...
 

Zed

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Silver’s Call Options Count Keeps Climbing

October’s Call tally now stands at 16,487, giving us a gain of 2,145 more Long Calls in a weeks’ time with November adding 1,434 more Calls making its total 6,285 with December adding 3,666 more Calls totaling 85,506. The combined totals give us an additional 8,619 more purchased Calls acquired these past 5 trading days. Again, this may mean nothing but 2+ years of wasted time trying to gauge what we all see as a criminal element on the verge of getting its ass handed to them. We believe this may be their attempt at trying to get out of its soon to be crushed short position. We now have a total Call Option count at 135,502 Long Calls held verses the total Open Interest in Silver. If a large portion of these options are to be used to help exit short positions, then someone is really preparing for a crack up boom!
Put Premium Total $1,281,265.00

Call Premium Total $1,680,885.00

Put/Call Premium Ratio 0.76

Put Open Interest Total 8,823

Call Open Interest Total 16,441

Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.54
 

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Zed

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I keep saying - I think whats in front of us needs to be traded based more on feeling than traditional technical indicators...
I've just shifted to bull market mode which means an optimistic take on the indications over the pessimistic take that has been justified since the 2016 pop temporarily boosted us.
 

Strawboss

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I've just shifted to bull market mode which means an optimistic take on the indications over the pessimistic take that has been justified since the 2016 pop temporarily boosted us.
Just shifted...as in just now? Like just this minute? From reading my post?

You got issues dude...
 

Zed

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Goldhedge

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It certainly appears that a shift is in process...

Gold could hang out at this level for some time - barring any unforeseen event.

A Black Swan?

I don't think war is in the cards, unless... someone does 'something' stupid.

I think it's going to be financial. A bank crashes and starts cascading event. Although they've been 'merging'(insolvent) banks for decades...

Juggling the debt balls is getting more difficult.
 

Zed

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NO POSTING SILVER ROCKET SHIPS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

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Zed

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Zed

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BTW... pull up a chart of your bank and keep an eye on the fecking thing. You might wanna grab some cash if it heads south rapidly.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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Gold looking close to staging a rally on the 4 hour. Lets see what we get...
 

Zed

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Strawboss

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FE04509C-BB72-42E5-9FB0-9E48268E3508.jpeg

$1494 top of the lower box...support holding for the moment...
 

louky

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COT isn't a timing tool. It's a back drop fundamental that is of some use when the market is in a constant trading pattern. We don't really know what the new normal will be but if you look @ the long term chart it does vary. OI increases with price and therefore bigger net positions will occur as the market expands. This is to be expected, sure keep an eye on it but don't worship it.

So yes I am sure that a big COT shake out is going to happen in the next few months (sometime!), in 2011 it started as a short squeeze which isn't the normal situation but then again things don't appear to be normal right at the moment do they?

I think that a broad view has to be taken here, gold is moving hard for a reason.
The point isnt timing, it's awareness. Gold was in bull market 3 of those 4 years. Every single time if you were buying,it's huge drawdown. If someone bought intermediate top in those instances and had the stones to hold the entire remaining bull market, well that's a different story.

If bullish, all dips/corrections should be a buying opportunity down to 1269....which just so happens to be the minimum drawdown off similiar cot postioning.

1550 ? Peak Futures....? @ 18% :p
 
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Strawboss

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Zeds $1595 is still perhaps in the cards...
 
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this is what I see from gold market action, each decline has become more shadower than the last. that would have bullish implications going forward unless something dramatic happens. what's holding up the stock market?
 

Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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BTW ~-3% off with 1.5 hours to trade down here. Gold stocks still bleeding off!
 

Zed

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setting up for a nice bullish reversal candlestick in the miners today, but its on low volume.
Gold looks like it needs to rally short term... but then the same last night.
 

Zed

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Zed

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savvydon

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James Turk is on about a possible squeeze developing in silver as options expiry hits us.

That’s funny I was thinking of adding to my SLV leaps call position. My reasoning is that gold has clearly established the fact that there is a financial paradigm shift in the works. With silver coiled so tightly after all these years of suppression there is a reasonable likelihood of a ‘gamma event’ on the horizon. Jm2c...