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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Strawboss

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Strawboss

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1568043449153.png


We can correct to $33.01 without violating the uptrend...
 

louky

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In theory 1539 should of held and below 1530 confirms a false breakout. Of course nothing is fool proof.

As far as charts, if you look at 1 hour there's a clear bear flag with breakdown target of 1505-10.

The historically significant number between bottom of the box 1539 and top of lower box 1494, is of course 1503 pivot. So that's where i'd look. Below it opens up deeper correction into september, 1476 would probably be the next number to watch.
Prob ~1476, could be 1485 for a buyable bounce
 

Zed

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Gold 4H USD --> Momentum is divergent from price and volatility is dropping. IM somewhat flawed O I think we are headed for a pop BUT prior we will likely see 1485 be tagged. That takes us back to 'trend' and sees support drawn in a traditional way tested. IMO this then has the room to get us through to about 1625 @ that point I think a lot of the interim top callers will be dumbfounded and it will quiet down on that front so then NATURALLY there will be some decent room for correction. I think we are close to eating the premature shorts for lunch and this will be the main fuel for this last leg. Gold stocks may not be as enthusiastic as you might expect for this final leg largely depending on short interest.

I'm looking for a new intermediate high to confirm, I don't want to see double top looking formations in the mid 15's. That would rain on my parade as would a significant break down below 1496, i.e. we tag 1485 and it gets sticky down there with 1496 becoming proper resistance again. Any dip to the 1485 level has to be short a sweet to keep me happy.

2c

Now you can cheer as the rocket explodes on the launch pad!

AUUSD-4H-20190910-1.png
 
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Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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Sea of red down here... ~-4% getting clobbered!
 

Zed

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1476 is like pull the rip cord for a crash number, would open up 1359-68 is my guess...... bounces aside
Better not do that just yet then.
 

savvydon

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You gentlemen are on it, imo. I have already bought back much of the miners I sold mid week last week. One or two more down days and I will be fully back in. In addition I stand ready with the Sept GDXJ 36 insurance puts I bought on the cheap just in case things get really ugly.

So far this thing has the feel of a healthy correction with gold in the general RSI vicinity of 50. Dancing near that 1485 line in Asian trading this eve. I agree with Zed that if we turn it around and get a pop we need to see it get past the 1550s. Perhaps with a little help from our friends at the Fed next week?
 

Zed

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Gold 4H USD --> Momentum is divergent from price and volatility is dropping. IM somewhat flawed O I think we are headed for a pop BUT prior we will likely see 1485 be tagged. That takes us back to 'trend' and sees support drawn in a traditional way tested. IMO this then has the room to get us through to about 1625 @ that point I think a lot of the interim top callers will be dumbfounded and it will quiet down on that front so then NATURALLY there will be some decent room for correction. I think we are close to eating the premature shorts for lunch and this will be the main fuel for this last leg. Gold stocks may not be as enthusiastic as you might expect for this final leg largely depending on short interest.

I'm looking for a new intermediate high to confirm, I don't want to see double top looking formations in the mid 15's. That would rain on my parade as would a significant break down below 1496, i.e. we tag 1485 and it gets sticky down there with 1496 becoming proper resistance again. Any dip to the 1485 level has to be short a sweet to keep me happy.

2c

Now you can cheer as the rocket explodes on the launch pad!

View attachment 140603
Tagged support! Now its time to establish a beachhead and go on the offensive!
 

Strawboss

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You gentlemen are on it, imo. I have already bought back much of the miners I sold mid week last week. One or two more down days and I will be fully back in. In addition I stand ready with the Sept GDXJ 36 insurance puts I bought on the cheap just in case things get really ugly.

So far this thing has the feel of a healthy correction with gold in the general RSI vicinity of 50. Dancing near that 1485 line in Asian trading this eve. I agree with Zed that if we turn it around and get a pop we need to see it get past the 1550s. Perhaps with a little help from our friends at the Fed next week?
I have scaled out of the puts I bought prior to the start of the correction. I have begun to reclaim the calls I sold last week - mostly at a 30-40% discount. Timing turns can be VERY profitable. Not only do you get to make gains from the protective puts - but you sell some of your calls only to rebuy them much cheaper - which allows you to add to the overall number of calls...

I still have some dry powder in case this correction goes deeper. If it does - I win. If it turns...then I will deploy my remaining dry powder once we make a higher high.
 

Zed

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I wonder if Trump tweets his tweets or if he has a tweetatary! .... or maybe a tweet little assistant?
 

Zed

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Strawboss

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I wonder if Trump tweets his tweets or if he has a tweetatary! .... or maybe a tweet little assistant?
I dunno.

But I think if he did...it would be a she...and she would be a she...and she would be amazing to look at...
 

Zed

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savvydon

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I have scaled out of the puts I bought prior to the start of the correction. I have begun to reclaim the calls I sold last week - mostly at a 30-40% discount. Timing turns can be VERY profitable. Not only do you get to make gains from the protective puts - but you sell some of your calls only to rebuy them much cheaper - which allows you to add to the overall number of calls...

I still have some dry powder in case this correction goes deeper. If it does - I win. If it turns...then I will deploy my remaining dry powder once we make a higher high.
I’m really starting to see that this trading/investing thing is a dynamic process - it never stops. In the past I made a trade and it was a binary outcome. It either did well or not. I’m just now understanding that the trade never really ends. I was fortunate enough to buy some out the money SLV leap calls a few weeks ago. Last week I hit my limit where I sold a minority of them and recouped the entire initial investment. At this point I think the thing to do is sit tight, but if silver continues to be pounded short term then buying them back cheaper makes a lot of sense to me. With Leap options I think it pays to look at technicals and try to get momentum from the anticipated turns.
 

Zed

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I’m really starting to see that this trading/investing thing is a dynamic process - it never stops. In the past I made a trade and it was a binary outcome. It either did well or not. I’m just now understanding that the trade never really ends.
Yes...

Eventually you learn how to get to roughly where you want to be!


Things are never right, never wrong, never ending... in the end there are only good reactions and bad reactions. Pull the trigger for better or worse and move on. No baggage on this flight!
 

louky

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Needs 1503 taken back

.....and have few days of wicks going down into it probably

Above it 1539 bottom of the box is open, below it 1494 top of lower box

You don't want to see pivot lower and wicks start going up into 1494
 

Strawboss

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Here is my argument for a rally from here...

Firstly - we have a reversal on the GSR P&F chart...which if it holds will signal a resumption of the downtrend in the ratio which is usually favorable for higher prices for the metals and the miners.

1568125419431.png


Secondly - take a look at the gaps that I have pointed out. Perhaps an island reversal? It would fit what has happened since then - and would be consistent with the reversal in the GSR...

1.png


Also - in uplegs of a bull market - the RSI tends to stay above 40 and, while early - it seems as though it wants to do just that...

And then there is a chart that Scorp recently posted on another thread...(too lazy to go grab it) that shows seasonal moves for the metals - and we are right at that moment where an upleg usually occurs..

So...combining all that with Louky's work....it makes me think an upmove is imminent (with the potential for a quick move down to test $1474 as a shakeout)...

I am adding to my positions this morning...but still holding back some dry powder.
 

dpong

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Strawboss

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here is that seasonal chart that Scorp posted on another thread...

1568135130633.png
 

Weatherman

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Zed

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Going skiing today... sort it out among yourselves! :p:D;)
 

Rip Van Winkle

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PPLT a buy at 82.07 for me, fills the recent gap and would stay in a recent upward channel. See chart
 

Attachments

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if EU cut rates, 1550+ is in the cards. And if Feds do .50 cut then 1600+ is in the cards only if we see both actions.
 

savvydon

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Tagged support! Now its time to establish a beachhead and go on the offensive!
Going skiing today... sort it out among yourselves! :p:D;)
Well, while you are out there playing amongst the moguls we are still thrashing it out down here on that beachhead. Not clear just yet how this skirmish is going to turn out...
 

Strawboss

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Well, while you are out there playing amongst the moguls we are still thrashing it out down here on that beachhead. Not clear just yet how this skirmish is going to turn out...
Oh no. Its crystal clear whats gonna happen...

Its gonna go THIS way...and then its gonna go THAT way...but, it might do a little jig...and then a jag...on its way to THAT way...