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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

louky

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Keep in mind this is the long view, there's still a long way til the crash. I've hinted at a possible year for the bottom once or twice maybe, but anyway.....

Would you bet on a potential top or lots of upside?

 
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louky

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Last year in august when we had the shemitah threads and also thread about people selling their daughters 401k's. Why did I present them with "soft", don't sell reasoning ?




Buy the dips, sell the tops. Now matter how you sliced it, last year we were either in the "V" bottom or at the left "shoulder". They could of been up 10% by now, holding was basically guaranteed return.
 
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louky

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The market could have a juice left. If you look at the size of this rise verses the last two, you can see the "V" still has potential to form higher, but you never bet on that last few percent. As always DYOD.

Wouldn't it be something if this is what they have planned or bigger?




Or more is it more like this?






Top one or similar has 10% or so gains left, do you bet on it?
 
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louky

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"You are here" area, says this is a dip. I'm expecting upper 1350 test again before the big whammy. Short term symmetry seems to confirm this as well
Short term symmetry failed before brexit so this proves we don't have to continue painting that area we are in now for 2 more weeks.

I'm not sure there's time to do anything but float downward from here? Assuming we hit that next expanded view symmetry bottom right before fomc

Exactly 8 trading days left until fomc. There's 8 candles on that daily drop, from labeled fomc to bottom. I constructed this under the assumption "IF" the time frames must hold because that was Nomis's original thinking (rate hike then drop). It was "something to ponder", so ignore the events location. Focus on the time frame

 
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chris_is_here

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image.png


I took a brief hiatus from buying gold and silver but am going back into the market and buying with both hands. I think 2017 will be THE year when enough people finally wake up to the debt calamity.

In 2017, we will finally reach the $20 trillion debt milestone. This will have a lot of people talking, and more attention will return to gold and silver. People that heretofore were strictly paper investors will move into the metals market. With the equity markets topping out, gold and silver will look attractive.

Under the more optimistic of the two projections above, the US debt will double to $40 trillion by around 2030, less than 15 years from now. The pessimistic estimate (produced using data over a longer time horizon) suggest that debt will double in a mere 5 years time, which will be a disaster.

If we maintain near ZIRP policies, the optimistic scenario may prevail. However, ZIRP will also guarantee further economic stagnation, which may lead the fed to try to juice the markets (negative interests will happen) and the US government may end up pressured to increase social spending, further exacerbating the debt situation.

No matter how you look at it, a monster has been created that may be too big to ever be killed. You can't argue with the math.
 

louky

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Metal chart says buy january, pretty sure I've posted that plenty. How about a miners chart?




I would imagine paper folks will buy as soon as they utter the words no rate hike, then sell in November to be safe. DYODD

 
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louky

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http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2016/09/09/spdr-gold-trust-etf-gld-gold-stocks-massive-correction/

Good article on corrections . The problem I see here for miners is they corrected 20% already. Now the general markets are probably going to correct further. So miners may get double whammied. The sell off that started with the s&p etc isn't fed speak related in my mind. It was coming now anyway, regardless. I have a post here somewhere from the end of August about considering taking some profits from 401k plans or protecting yourself if near retirement. Not saying its going to crash, but we were topping a few weeks ago when I posted.
Corrections are normal

2009 gdx
may to july, 22% correction
dec thru jan, 23%

2016 gdx
may to june, 15%
august to sept, 22% (so far)

Worst case, GDX falls to $22.50 or so, huge buying opportunity. That would be over 30% drop though, so odds are we are done with last weeks low of 25? Expect to touch that again next week.

 

louky

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My sentiments exactly. I feel sub-$20.00 silver is a no-brainer, buying opportunity. We'll see.
Or will you? Not until you pull the wool off your eyes

"That Jedi Summer spike never would of happened without Brexit., I'm tellin' ya, bro"



2009
Dec- Feb gold increase $217
April-June $117
Sept- Dec $227

2016
Dec - Feb $188
April-June $108
Sept-Dec 1330 + 200?

Hmmm, looks like I should adjust my target 1450-85


Yeah sure, Brexit caused the metals spike. Not "symmetry", ie the algos, the plan. The cover up caused it.
 
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louky

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-10/deutsche-bank-us-may-now-be-recession

Summarizing all of the above: based on corporate balance sheets and income statements, the US economy may be in a recession as of this moment... and if it isn't, even just one rate hike by the Fed, either in the September 21 meeting or in December, will assure that the backbone of corporate America, already straining under record debt and tumbling profits, will finally snap.
 

Zed

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Netdania works again! Yey, proper charts.

Great, now when I have done my tax this week I am going on holidays for 2 weeks or so.

LOL....

Don't worry, if big stuff happens it normally kicks off while I am on a beach somewhere... I have history. :D

... so now you have an event window!
 

louky

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Here's one for you. Nobody wants to believe $3,000 $5,000, $9,000 or whatever gold so I just left the $'s @ constant growth compared to the starting point. Most important thing is about the timing of buys. Now or end of Jan/feb in the short term. All in by summer 2018 worst case, though I wouldn't wait that long because we probably won't continue constant $ increase until then.


Jedi Summers in a bull market.

For reference:

2020 shows 3500 gold with the same trajectory.
 
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louky

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They are targeting those pre brexit stops


Gdx pre brexit, early June, $25.36

Tested it last Wednesday

Premarket today 26

Just saying'

One last shake so the can shear the sheep of their shares before gold is scheduled to take off.
 
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louky

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I don't see them being able to take it much lower, that would mean shaking out the people who held May's mini correction.


They want the same for metals (pre brexit 1260-1280), but I think they may have underestimated that neckline that formed around 1308 gold?
 
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louky

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Possible trap door again, just like last Tuesday's rally. Wouldn't be surprised to see red into fomc still

edit - miners
 
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Goldhedge

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Here's one for you. Nobody wants to believe $3,000 $5,000, $9,000 or whatever gold so I just left the $'s @ constant growth compared to the starting point. Most important thing is about the timing of buys. Now or end of Jan/feb in the short term. All in by summer 2018 worst case, though I wouldn't wait that long because we probably won't continue constant $ increase until then.


Jedi Summers in a bull market.

For reference:



2020 shows 3500 gold with the same trajectory.
Is this your pre-prediction for the next year? A 'golden' opportunity to watch these dates??
 

louky

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Is this your pre-prediction for the next year? A 'golden' opportunity to watch these dates??
We are currently retracing to the bull market of 2001-2011. As long as this continues, then yes, the chart will be accurate for the next year. In terms of buying opportunities. Meaning, I can't guarantee gold will be cheaper ending Jan into Feb than it is right now, just because the chart implies it. However, I am comfortable saying Jan ending into Feb will be the next bottom.
 
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louky

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Buy now, sell Nov. Buy Jan/Feb, sell Spring. Buy Summer, Sell End of Summer.


Buy and hold in bits and pieces.....

or load the freightliner.




The wait and see folks......

"hmmmm......

maybe I really should get all in buy summer 2018 at the absolute latest".




 
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louky

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Maybe she keels over exactly two years from now?

Looks like hospitalized during Jedi Summer 2018, then funeral in the fall


No summer doldrums btw, take note.

The phrase can be retired until at least 2021
 
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Goldhedge

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Netdania works again! Yey, proper charts.

Great, now when I have done my tax this week I am going on holidays for 2 weeks or so.

LOL....

Don't worry, if big stuff happens it normally kicks off while I am on a beach somewhere... I have history. :D

... so now you have an event window!
I'd be cloning the heck out of that OS!
 

Zed

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I am thinking that the 220 level has a reasonable chance of holding here, if not a trip to the 200 DMA looks like it will be brief and setup some nice divergences. In the context of a general stock rout kicking off the 200 DMA would have to be considered the more probable buy target... I smell opportunity in the near future. JMO, DYODD etc...

HUI-D-20160914.png
 

Zed

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The funds have their necks out, that is for sure... but then they have been bold and getting bolder most of the year. OI is back on the upswing and considering the recent contraction price has gone nowhere near as low as it would have one short year ago. If the funds hold pat this is looking good for year end.

BTW that recent high in OI is a record by all the data that I have.

2c

FWIW
 

Zed

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Summer 2018, just sayin'
I've had 2018 pegged for quite some time... but I think the roll really gets going in 2017.

1987
1997
2007-8
2017-18?! Seems to be a ~10 year cycle.
 

louky

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I've had 2018 pegged for quite some time... but I think the roll really gets going in 2017.

1987
1997
2007-8
2017-18?! Seems to be a ~10 year cycle.
Yeah, studying these S&P charts since last weekend. It seems like it can hold on, maybe for 5 months. Doesn't look like it topples over though. It's going to fall off a cliff.

I re balanced at the end of August when I felt it topped.

Last night I mapped out roughly what the pattern appears to be on the monthly chart. Even if it corrects, say 20% early next year. The monthly candles still add up to around this time 2018. That's where it points currently as far as the massive, nothing to hold it up, plunge. Also, the gold map shows something crazy happening then.

Granted anything can happen. This is not investment advice. Etc, yada yada
 
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