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Europe Gets Its Doomsday Scenario

Scorpio

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Why We’re Ungovernable, Part 17: Europe Gets Its Doomsday Scenario

April 17, 2017 5 Comments

The rise of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has made a lot of people nervous since, among many other things, she’s in favor of leaving the eurozone, which would pretty much end the common currency. But since polling has shown her making the two-person run-off round but then losing to a mainstream candidate, the euro-elites haven’t seen any reason to panic.

Here, for instance, is a chart based on February polling that shows Le Pen getting the most votes in the first round, but then – when mainstream voters coalesce around her opponent – losing by around 60% – 40%. The establishment gets a bit of a scare but remains firmly in power, no harm no foul.



Then came the past month’s debates in which a previously-overlooked communist candidate named Jean-Luc Mélenchon shook up the major candidates by pointing out how corrupt they all are. Voters liked what they heard and a significant number of them shifted his way.

Mélenchon: Far-leftist surges in French polls, shocking the frontrunners
(France 24) – In a presidential campaign with more twists than a French braid, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s sudden play to become France’s third man — or better — is shaking up the race.
With ten days to go before April 23’s first round vote, the colourful, cultured and cantankerous far-leftist has the frontrunners on the defensive.

Suddenly, the grumpy far-leftist — a showman in a Chairman Mao jacket who openly admired late Venezuelan populist leader Hugo Chavez — holds the mantle of France’s most popular politician. In the course of a whirlwind month, the 65-year-old Mélenchon surged nine spots to number one in weekly glossy Paris Match’s opinion poll. A full 68 percent of those surveyed hold “favourable opinions” of the far-left candidate, the poll by the Ifop-Fiducial firm showed.

On some polls, Mélenchon has now bypassed embattled conservative François Fillon for third place in a presidential race that will see the top two advance to the May 7 run-off.

An Ipsos poll on Tuesday put Mélenchon a half-point ahead of Fillon for third place in the race, behind National Front leader Marine Le Pen and the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron. With 18.5 percent, the far-leftist has gleaned 4.5 percent in just two weeks, with Macron and Le Pen tied on 24 percent.

Mélenchon wants to quit NATO, the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and block European trade treaties with the United States and Canada. He promises a French referendum on whether to stick with the reworked EU he is pledging to negotiate or leave the bloc altogether.

Here’s a chart from the Washington Post showing just how tight the race for the run-off spots has become:



It’s still unlikely that both Le Pen and Mélenchon will make the run-off, but based on the above chart it’s suddenly possible. This would be the cultural equivalent of a Trump – Bernie Sanders race in the US, but with – believe it or not — even higher stakes because both Le Pen and Mélenchon would threaten the existence of both the euro and the European Union, the world’s biggest economic entity.

So it almost doesn’t matter who wins that run-off. Just the prospect of having one or the other in charge would tank the euro and set off a stampede out of Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds, possibly doing irreparable damage to the eurozone before the eventual winner even takes power.

To repeat the theme of this series, when you screw up a country’s finances you take its politics along for the ride. In France, the right feels betrayed by open borders and excessive regulation, the left by an unaccountable elite that always seems to profit at everyone else’s expense. And both sides suffer from soaring debt at every level of society.

So if a fringe candidate doesn’t win this time around, the mainstream will just make an even bigger mess, raising the odds of a fringe victory next a few years hence.

https://dollarcollapse.com/why-were-ungovernable/europe-election-doomsday-scenario/
 

Fanakapan

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Even though, and as I've said on GIM before, there is little common ground between the 'Eurosceptic' parties of EU member states, they all have the common denominator of being detested by the majority of folk of the middling sort.

Quite aside from the improbability of France, a founding member, ever leaving the EU, there's the fact that the Eurosceptic parties have the miraculous power of being able to persuade people to switch party allegiance, against them.

Consequently, even if the LePen woman makes it to the run off, I imagine that even she would be Surprised if she won :)

As for the 'Breakup' of the EU, a scenario that seems to be peddled in the USA quite often by folks who have a market to make, Its about as likely as the breakup of the USA.
 

BarnacleBob

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Donald Trumps response to a Le Pen or Melenchon victory: "Invade France!"

"Mélenchon wants to quit NATO, the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and block European trade treaties with the United States and Canada. He promises a French referendum on whether to stick with the reworked EU he is pledging to negotiate or leave the bloc altogether."
 

Fanakapan

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The Frogs quit NATO back in the 60's under DeGaulle. The midget Sarkozy only took them back into the consulting structure.

And again, France leaving the EU ? If the Eu was a stick of seaside rock, it'd have certain names running right through it, and one of the biggest would be France :)
 

Alton

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Though I appreciate your perspective Fanakapan, I disagree. The "euroelites" are so scared they're leaving brown streaks in their undies. What the UK did will indeed be repeated by other euro countries. France may be the last to succumb but, it, too, will ultimately leave or be left. There are plenty of other forces at work, the US being one of those forces, that will insure the dissolution of the EU. The UK was smart to get out while the gettin' was good. And yes, it is highly probable that NATO will dissolve along with the EU. Especially since former EU members will be quite conciliatory toward Russia as the EU ends. After all, a market is needed for former EU members goods and they will be NEEDING some serious cash inflows then.
 

Fanakapan

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The benefits of being in the EU outweigh the disadvantages, much as you could say if comparing the USA.

Above it all, there are no discernable gains to be made by not being in the EU. I mean its not as if All the other major currency blocs are not just as screwed as the Euro :)

The breakup of the EU plays well to American audiences, as well it might, competitors falling by the wayside is always good, right ?
But most of the talk will be either from market makers, or the guys who imagine a return to some 'Gulch' like past that has never really existed ?

As for the UK being Out, I'll venture the Fat Lady aint sung on that one yet. The Snap Election announced yesterday is likely to throw up some big surprises. The polls taken when folk imagined being 3 years away from the next election will be worthless, and even if the Tories do manage to win, its likely that the power of the Looney Right within that party faces emasculation. And at the end of the day thats what Brexit is really all about, a group of Empire Loyalist type whacko's within the Conservative Party.

Already today the electoral registration deal here has had its biggest day since ever, and we all know from last November that when folk who have been non voters get inclined to vote, results might be surprising :)
 

Fanakapan

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Anyone think think the polls in EU are anymore honest than in US? Clinton 98% favorite to win , yah ok
Its going to be a lot easier to fiddle the polls in the USA. You have a nation of over 300 million souls spread fairly thinly (apart from the big cities) over a Yuuuuge area. Combine that with a media concentrated in very few hands and geographic areas, and as last years evidence shows, what should be polling turns into advertising for the candidate that the 'Few' would prefer to win.

Over here in Europe you have populations that are far smaller and much more concentrated, and with nothing more than a days drive away there's no place to hide for bogus pollsters. Its relatively easy for Hucksters to be discovered, and once they are discovered its game over for em.

Consequently, you'll find the polls in Europe are reasonably conscientious and accurate as far as polls rely upon freely given responses.
 

Ensoniq

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#9
I thought the EU exit was more about resistance to centralized control by Brussels. Here take these bazillion immigrants and put up with their BS
 

Fanakapan

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I thought the EU exit was more about resistance to centralized control by Brussels. Here take these bazillion immigrants and put up with their BS
There is no Centralised Control. The EU is a Confederation, and just like the Confederation that the Americans tried in the 19th century, the rights of individual states are protected in the stuff that really matters. No fiscal or security acts can be implemented without Complete agreement of all members, its only in the minor stuff that a majority can get stuff through.

On the immigrant gig, the EU was caught with its pants down on that one. With access routes for entry to EU territory being potentially very short, the sudden flood established entry, and the various states were paralysed by the spectre of being labelled Racist if they tried to prevent movement. Added to which, the states of entry, Greece, and Italy, knew full well that the vast majority of the 'Immigrants' would be aiming to move on up to Northern European states, so it became a game of pass the parcel. The Germans, who to this day are lambasted for historical events, were in even less of a position to stem the flow lest the ghost of the Concentration Camp be raised.

Its taken a while, but the flow has been stemmed to a large degree, and the behaviour of some of those immigrants is slowly but surely ensuring that the body politic has to keep working on a solution.

As an aside, I'm remembering that Nigel Farage, St George to the EU's Dragon, is on record as saying that the UK ought to accept Syrian refugee's. But that was before the flood occurred, so maybe its unfair to bring that up and we should put it in the same place as the UKIP manifesto suggestion that Taxi drivers should have to wear a uniform :)
 

Alton

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Above it all, there are no discernable gains to be made by not being in the EU. I mean its not as if All the other major currency blocs are not just as screwed as the Euro :)
You got me! I will humbly and gladly concede this point.

I guess we will have to wait until the Snap Election for the true outcome.
 

Cigarlover

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#12
the polls were wrong about brexit too. Not sure how their laws work over there. If they dont like the result of the election they get a do over? Can the loser just keep requesting new elections?
 

Fanakapan

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the polls were wrong about brexit too. Not sure how their laws work over there. If they dont like the result of the election they get a do over? Can the loser just keep requesting new elections?
Actually, and if memory serves, they were roundabout the 3% plus or minus. The Brexit race tightened in the last weeks, and tight scenario's effectively defeat polls.

Its all well and good to say the polls had it wrong, but there's a world of difference between the situation in the USA last year where the polls were maybe 50% adrift, and tight races where the reality of polling becomes anyone's guess.

And lets not forget that the Brexit result was a 51 to 49 win, so its not as if we're talking a huge majority. Given that reality has become apparent, there's ample reason to think that the upcoming election could get nasty (by our standards) and throw up some surprising results.
 

Cigarlover

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Hopefully things don't get to crazy over there. I still need to go on a search for the best figs in Europe. :)

I think your right about the brexit, it was a close one in the polls but they were sure they were going to win. I think Hillary cancelled her fireworks the day before our election. She knew she was finished.

What happens if they reverse the vote on Brexit? Do they then get to do best out of 3 or 5? :)
 

Fanakapan

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Hopefully things don't get to crazy over there. I still need to go on a search for the best figs in Europe. :)

I think your right about the brexit, it was a close one in the polls but they were sure they were going to win. I think Hillary cancelled her fireworks the day before our election. She knew she was finished.

What happens if they reverse the vote on Brexit? Do they then get to do best out of 3 or 5? :)
Reversing the decision aint on the table at all. What is up for debate is whether or not the UK stays within the EU Single Market. The grim reality of a sclerotic UK being totally outside the EU, faced with tariff barriers, and the pressing need to conquer new markets, is starting to hit home here. So I'd imagine a deal that keeps us in the Single Market is going to be the eventual outcome.

Sort of points up the folly of having a yes, no, referendum on a multiple choice question :)
 

Fanakapan

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39671163

Its getting interesting already !

A Conservative Party wanting the freedom to be able to raise taxes. Somehow that does not seem to jive with the vision of milk and honey that was supposed to result from Brexit :)

And with it being as unusual as a dog that goes meow, it might be some indication that the Tories hope for a result other than a landslide victory ? Only then in an environment of confusion could Brexit be rolled back to some half in, half out, result.