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GOLD IN FIFTH WAVE

d-lod

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#82
Its still on, but taking a breather



http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30576.html

I’ve stayed away from either shorting Gold or going long gold while I watch and confirm the 4th wave pattern. It’s simply the smart way to go knowing that upside will be difficult to obtain and downside risks are high. It does now appear that I am eliminating the Triangle pattern and sticking with the ABC Correction with the C wave still working its way lower. If $1702 breaks, then you should expect to see 1620-1643 as next pivot low ranges.

we had predicted this earlier.........way long ahead..........

09-11-2011 11:43 PM #46
d-lod

Quote Originally Posted by Curtman View Post
There will be no significant declines from here. We are still in the early stages of wave two, they are just bigger waves and the third wave is not the last wave unless it is a tsunami and then it will just lift us to a higher playing field.
Right on Curtman, but there are lot many similarities in Wave 1 of WAVE I and III.


...........................WAVE I................................................. ...........WAVE III

Wave A: 430.50 - 387.64 = 42.86..........................Wave A: 1912.02 - 1702.48 = 209.54
Wave B: 387.64 - 432.10 = 44.46...........................Wave B: 1702.48 - 1920.74 = 218.26
Wave C: 432.10 - 371.00 = 61.10...........................Wave C: 1920.74 - 1621.10 = 299.64


I am trying to look at similarity and holding camp with history repeats.
 

Anakin

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#83
So, is the consensus that this is still major III? And if so this is wave 4 of III?

Is it possible that we're in major IV?
 

d-lod

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#84
Cash high 1925 low 1308 50% retrace of that move is 1615.


If I am truly following Alf Fields' count than we have finished WAVE 1 from 254 - 1032 which retraced 44.3% to 681, This wave is WAVE III's 1st wave and it has begun from 681 if that is to retrace to than the 38.2% retracment could be 1447.77 and second could be 1360.96 at 44.1 %.

If I consider your wave count from 1309 - 1925 than already gold has retraced more than 44.1%, which is at 1650ish. Gold has retraced to 1628.14.

So may be it is 1st of Wave 3.
 

d-lod

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#85
So, is the consensus that this is still major III? And if so this is wave 4 of III?

Is it possible that we're in major IV?

Anakin

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30576.html

My most recent update was to simply try to figure out whether the continuing correction in Gold would take the form of an ABC pattern or an ABCDE Triangle Pattern. It is becoming more clear that the official pattern is ABC. In English it means that the first leg down from 1910 to 1702 was the “A” Wave, the rally back up to 1920 was the “B” wave. The C wave is continuing underway and one of my longstanding targets is $1643, which is a Fibonacci fractal relationship to the prior lows and highs, and also conveniently fills in a “Gap” in the Gold chart in the 1650’s.

During these 4th wave consolidation periods, it reduces sentiment back down to normal levels and lets the economics of the move in Gold catch up with the price action that was extended. The first area to watch is the re-test of $1702 spot pricing for a C wave low, but the evidence is for a further drop to $1643 before I would get too interested in trying to game Gold to the upside.

This is the postulation of your theory.
I will give you mine in two hours.
 

d-lod

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#86
Any number higher than 5-6K for Gold would require many extensions of the 5th of the 5th similar to what we saw in the Dow.
lhslancers3270

Not quite so, It is wave within waves and true unfolding of one more impulsive will give us projection for the whole scenerio till 12500$ and beyond.

I will get back with more analysis.
 

eric2075

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#87
"At press time, this game was expected to be the sixth contest of the quarter-finals between Phoenix and Denver, unless Phoenix or Denver already has won in four or five games."

"In that case, it will be either the first or second game of the semi-finals to Los Angeles, in which case this will be Phonix or Denver against Los Angeles, in progress."

"Either way, the only round of play that means anything won't start for at least three more weeks, so you won't miss much if you skip this one. (3hrs)
 

d-lod

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#88
"At press time, this game was expected to be the sixth contest of the quarter-finals between Phoenix and Denver, unless Phoenix or Denver already has won in four or five games."

"In that case, it will be either the first or second game of the semi-finals to Los Angeles, in which case this will be Phonix or Denver against Los Angeles, in progress."

"Either way, the only round of play that means anything won't start for at least three more weeks, so you won't miss much if you skip this one. (3hrs)
eric2075

yes eric so now like many of the posters of this thread, I am unable to know what does this mean?
 

TomJerry

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#89
d-lod, just to make sure, are we still looking at 1624 as a potential floor unless it breaches that?
 

d-lod

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#91
Any number higher than 5-6K for Gold would require many extensions of the 5th of the 5th similar to what we saw in the Dow.


lhslancers3270


Wave I of WAVE ONE = 0251 - 1032 = 0780
Wave II of WAVE ONE = 1032 - 0681 = 0351
Wave III of WAVE ONE = 0681 - 1912 = 1231 (780 X 1.6)
 

d-lod

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#92
If I am truly following Alf Fields' count than we have finished WAVE 1 from 254 - 1032 which retraced 44.3% to 681, This wave is WAVE III's 1st wave and it has begun from 681 if that is to retrace to than the 38.2% retracment could be 1447.77 and second could be 1360.96 at 44.1 %.

If I consider your wave count from 1309 - 1925 than already gold has retraced more than 44.1%, which is at 1650ish. Gold has retraced to 1628.14.

So may be it is 1st of Wave 3.
TomJerry

Please refer this and take notice of my style, if i change my opinion, I will post.
 

d-lod

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#95
If I am truly following Alf Fields' count than we have finished WAVE 1 from 254 - 1032 which retraced 44.3% to 681, This wave is WAVE III's 1st wave and it has begun from 681 if that is to retrace to than the 38.2% retracment could be 1447.77 and second could be 1360.96 at 44.1 %.

If I consider your wave count from 1309 - 1925 than already gold has retraced more than 44.1%, which is at 1650ish. Gold has retraced to 1628.14.

So may be it is 1st of Wave 3.
TomJerry read this post it says

the 38.2% retracment could be 1447.77 and second could be 1360.96 at 44.1 %.
 

d-lod

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#97
Yes I saw that. Just wanted to vent mostly. Although you confirming it again doesn't hurt. :coolbeer:
TJ

It hurts to go back and forth, when all I want from all of you is intellectual query and debate on my analysis. This looks just like a one way traffic road and I get bored easily.
lhslancers3270, jelly TJ, where are you?
:biggrin:
 

lightcycler

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#98
TJ

It hurts to go back and forth, when all I want from all of you is intellectual query and debate on my analysis. This looks just like a one way traffic road and I get bored easily.
lhslancers3270, jelly TJ, where are you?
:biggrin:
$26.50 was a very good target. Went a little past that but has bounced higher. I think we will at least test that $26 low again as I see we need one more leg lower to complete Wave C down after a bounce of course. We may see $25 but don't expect that to be broken. We are at a long term trend channel I beleive at about $25.50. Regardless I feel the bottom is in or very very close. I guess I will sit tight for a while as buying options with this high implied volatility is crazy. May do a straddle or something like that. Or may just sit tight and wait for 1 up and 2 down of the next wave up to complete. Volatility will come down. Would like to take advantage of that high volatility though.
 
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#99
I have a question - I think most of us agree that the metals prices are manipulated. So if that is the case, then isnt any type of analysis (technical, or other) useless?
 

lightcycler

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I have a question - I think most of us agree that the metals prices are manipulated. So if that is the case, then isnt any type of analysis (technical, or other) useless?
I tend to think the conspiricy theories are overblown. The bottom line in any market is to know that when a chart goes parabolic it will always end badly. Even though this seems like manipulation....to me it was a normal correction based on the prior run up. Check back in 6 months and the market will have moved above $50 in my opinion.
 

Juristic Person

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d-lod,

If the low is $1584, and we are currently sitting at $1592, are you saying that NOW is a good time to buy?
 

d-lod

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$26.50 was a very good target. Went a little past that but has bounced higher. I think we will at least test that $26 low again as I see we need one more leg lower to complete Wave C down after a bounce of course. We may see $25 but don't expect that to be broken. We are at a long term trend channel I beleive at about $25.50. Regardless I feel the bottom is in or very very close. I guess I will sit tight for a while as buying options with this high implied volatility is crazy. May do a straddle or something like that. Or may just sit tight and wait for 1 up and 2 down of the next wave up to complete. Volatility will come down. Would like to take advantage of that high volatility though.


lightcycler

Following is the thread for silver.

http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?16871-Silver-next-correction/page5

To reflect on your statement, I would say Silver has corrected to 78% in past, from top 21ish to 8.43, which was top of 1st wave, if that is so than 1st wave in this case is 19.46, and a very strong support. The correction levels are very clearly stated on page 4 of the above thread.
And volativity will be very high and using DYOD, trade safely.
 

d-lod

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I have a question - I think most of us agree that the metals prices are manipulated. So if that is the case, then isnt any type of analysis (technical, or other) useless?


ilovegoldnyc

right on, it is manipulated to some extent, if the manipulator play among themselves, what would they get? Media raised appreciative value of gold and when people get in, manipulator goes out. And that is mass psychology and its second name is ELLIOT WAVE.

Present gold and silver appreciation is long due because of shortage of natural resources in compare to growing population and wrongful inflation.
 

d-lod

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d-lod,

If the low is $1584, and we are currently sitting at $1592, are you saying that NOW is a good time to buy?
Juristic Person

the 38.2% retracment could be 1447.77 and second could be 1360.96 at 44.1 %.
In this thread to reply, Ishlancer's post, I have calculated the above mentioned support. Gold may react to 1450- 1360$ DYO
D
 

jelly

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Thanks D-lod. I've been reading much but posting little. I went short around 1800 and took profits today. This straight fall has me concerned that we might get a rally before we go down further. But I am by no means an expert.

A quick question: in your analysis, do you consider things like a weakening economy? In 2008 it seemed like the big drop in the Dow had a big affect on gold. If the Dow drops again like in 2008, do you see gold dropping further to, say, the 1400's or possibly even lower?

It seems like we are heading into a double-dip recession, so I'm curious as to what you think.
Thanks
 

jelly

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Juristic Person



In this thread to reply, Ishlancer's post, I have calculated the above mentioned support. Gold may react to 1450- 1360$ DYO
D
Question: if gold does go that low, will we see a noticeable rally beforehand, or do we keep dropping like a rock from here all the way down to $1450-1360?
 

SongSungAU

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I think we bottomed today in both Gold and Silver. Obviously the lows were made in the overnight session. I wouldn't wait for 1535 to buy Gold or 26 to buy Silver. We aren't going back down there again.
Okay, that's good to hear. One question though.... options expiration on Friday, right? TPTB won't pressure the price down on Thursday??

:confused:
 

d-lod

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Thanks D-lod. I've been reading much but posting little. I went short around 1800 and took profits today. This straight fall has me concerned that we might get a rally before we go down further. But I am by no means an expert.

A quick question: in your analysis, do you consider things like a weakening economy? In 2008 it seemed like the big drop in the Dow had a big affect on gold. If the Dow drops again like in 2008, do you see gold dropping further to, say, the 1400's or possibly even lower?

It seems like we are heading into a double-dip recession, so I'm curious as to what you think.
Thanks

You are right Jelly about deflation scenario and gold's reaction to it, but that time many banks were liquidated too, it was first time that investors were baffled by huge depressive mass mood. This is first time that China being largest producer of gold is also importer of gold. So when gold is on the way of becoming currency, it has major role to play. Central bank were seller of gold and now they are buyer of gold.
 

d-lod

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Juristic Person



In this thread to reply, Ishlancer's post, I have calculated the above mentioned support. Gold may react to 1450- 1360$ DYO
D
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Conner/sep262011A.html


I suspect the next daily cycle is going to be a volatile nightmare that will chew up bulls and bears alike before a final plunge down below the 200 day moving average - somewhere between $1300-$1400. As all D-Wave declines have retraced at least 50 to 60% of the previous C-wave advance that would be a minimum target for the November bottom. At that point we should see a very powerful A-wave advance triggered by the extreme oversold conditions generated at the D-Wave bottom. More in the weekend report...

Wait for long term buy...............DYOD gold reaching 1640
 
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d-lod

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d-lod, I didn't take your advise seriously last time and I got burned. Buying gold at 1800+ and silver at 41+. I thought I DYOD but the more I read/study the less I know, so I just bought.

This time I will wait and see if you're right. Cheers.
TomJerry

That's understandable cause media had created unfailing quality of PM., secondly not all my analysis were proven truthful, you always should listen to your guts and only through our mistake we learn.

I am waiting for positive divergence.
 

TomJerry

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TomJerry

That's understandable cause media had created unfailing quality of PM., secondly not all my analysis were proven truthful, you always should listen to your guts and only through our mistake we learn.

I am waiting for positive divergence.
What is positive divergence?
 

REO 54

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Gold Rebounds After Biggest Three-Day Decline Since 2008 Spurs Purchases.....

Gold gained for the first time in five days in London as the biggest three-day drop since October 2008 spurred some investors to buy the metal on concern about economic growth and debt crises.

Bullion slumped 8.8 percent in the previous three days as some investors sold to cover losses in other markets, which plunged on concern there may be another global recession. The metal has slid 13 percent from its Sept. 6 record and last week’s plunge prompted CME Group Inc. (CME) to raise margin requirements on futures contracts. Physical demand for gold is “exceptionally strong,” UBS AG said today in a report.

“Although not many are yet prepared to dip their toes back in the market, there is a small but growing group who believe this pullback will prove to be a good buying opportunity,” Edel Tully, a London-based analyst at UBS, wrote in a report. “Gold needs to stabilise for now, after suffering a good deal of reputational damage with recent wild moves.”

Immediate-delivery gold gained $44.05, or 2.7 percent, to $1,670.40 an ounce by 11:53 a.m. in London. It dropped to $1,532.72 yesterday, the lowest level since July 8. Gold for December delivery was 4.7 percent higher at $1,669.70 on the Comex in New York.

The metal rose to $1,671 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell output, from $1,598 at yesterday’s afternoon fixing.

Bull Market
Gold is in the 11th year of a bull market, the longest winning streak since at least 1920 in London. Prices reached a record $1,921.15 on Sept. 6 as investors sought to diversify away from equities and some currencies. The metal tumbled 17 percent in October 2008 as the worst recession since World War II sent global equity and commodity markets tumbling. Bullion jumped 22 percent in the next two months.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities yesterday fell to the lowest level since December and the MSCI All-Country World Index of shares last week touched the lowest since July 2010. CME raised margin requirements on gold and silver after trading yesterday and the Shanghai Gold Exchange will increase requirements from Sept. 29.

“When the market gets very panicky, they sell everything off and they go for cash and Treasuries because that’s really the largest market where you can park your money,” Gijsbert Groenewegen, a partner at Silver Arrow Capital Management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s a great opportunity to accumulate more gold and silver.”

Debt Crisis
Policy makers are under pressure to halt the European debt crisis that has Greece on the brink of default. The European Central Bank is likely to debate restarting covered-bond purchases and may discuss interest-rate cuts to ease funding strains next week, a euro-region central bank official said.

Silver for immediate delivery gained 7.3 percent to $32.975 an ounce, after tumbling 23 percent in the past three days and touching a 10-month low of $26.07 yesterday.

Silver slumped because it “is also an industrial metal,” said Groenewegen. “On the way down it acts as an industrial metal, on the way up it’s a precious metal. You see much more volatility also because the silver market is less deep than the gold market.”

Platinum rose 1.2 percent to $1,579.23 an ounce, after dropping to $1,471.25 yesterday, the lowest level since May 2010. Palladium was up 2.9 percent at $649.75 an ounce. It fell to $605.25 yesterday, the lowest since October.

To contact the reporters for this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net; Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net
 

d-lod

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What is positive divergence?
In simple words it a technical condition where prices are moving lower and indicators are taking upward position. If positive divergence takes place on weekly chart than there is possibility of upturn that is sustainable.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/584294-stockjupiter-com/58604-macd-positive-divergence-a-successful-technical-stock-pattern


Positive Divergence is when the MACD makes a higher low but the market makes a lower low. This situation gives us a hint of a possible reversal to the upside. The other situation is Negative Divergence and is noted when the MACD makes a lower high while the market makes a higher high. This situation gives us a hint of a possible reversal to the downside.
 

TomJerry

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In simple words it a technical condition where prices are moving lower and indicators are taking upward position. If positive divergence takes place on weekly chart than there is possibility of upturn that is sustainable.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/584294-stockjupiter-com/58604-macd-positive-divergence-a-successful-technical-stock-pattern
For positive divergence to take place would metals need to reach (or surpass) their current lows? If so that would be a double bottom, which is very bullish yes?
 

TomJerry

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d lod, the stress is getting to me. I've been watching the ticker almost constantly for the last 48 hours. I've decided to use a significant amount of my remaining dry powder if/when gold dips below 1600 and silver below 30. If it goes lower than that so be it.
 

d-lod

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d lod, the stress is getting to me. I've been watching the ticker almost constantly for the last 48 hours. I've decided to use a significant amount of my remaining dry powder if/when gold dips below 1600 and silver below 30. If it goes lower than that so be it.
TJ

I am sure buying at any level other than bottom is very frustrating, but wait for buy signal. Gold has to dip further and silver has to move sideways.
 

REO 54

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d lod, the stress is getting to me. I've been watching the ticker almost constantly for the last 48 hours. I've decided to use a significant amount of my remaining dry powder if/when gold dips below 1600 and silver below 30. If it goes lower than that so be it.
Relax.Just keep buying when you can....at least you are able to buy,and the right stuff too.:D
 

d-lod

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Relax.Just keep buying when you can....at least you are able to buy,and the right stuff too.:D
Right on REO 54 and also TJ

You will not regret for next few years for any purchase at any price. It will give higher ROI than banks.


:biggrin::biggrin: