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Gold Price Forecast: $6,000 Gold on the Horizon

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Gold Price Forecast: $6,000 Gold on the Horizon
Jason Hamlin




The gold price just rocketed through $1,900, marking the highest level since the record high peak in late 2011. This move should not come as a surprise to anyone paying attention to the current financial landscape. The FED has injected an unprecedented amount of new money/debt into the economy since March in efforts to avoid a collapse from the impact of the Covid-19 virus and subsequent restrictions of business activity globally. Over $6 trillion in stimulus so far is roughly double the entire amount injected during the financial crisis of 2008/09. And they are just getting started.


The Federal Reserve has stated that stimulus efforts will last for years and they have committed to do “whatever it takes” to keep the economy afloat. The Federal Reserve balance sheet has shot from $4 trillion pre-crisis to $7 trillion today. This is the highest level on record by a wide margin and the fastest it has ever increased. And this is before the 2nd round of stimulus, which is currently being negotiated. While there are plenty of dollar bulls amidst a global dollar shortage, they have been incorrect in their bullish outlook thus far. The dollar index has dropped from a high of 103 on March 20th to just 94, a significant drop in just a few months to the lowest level since September of 2018.


It turns out that when the money printer goes brrrrrr, it is indeed bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold, which is now up 25% year-to-date. This compares to a loss of 0.5% for the S&P 500 and even outpaces the gains of the red-hot NASDAQ, which is up 15% in the same time period. While we advocate holding some physical gold, it has been mining stocks that have generated the best gains in 2020. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up 42% year-to-date and many of the junior miners that we hold in the Gold Stock Bull portfolio are up 100%. Miners see their profit margins increase at a faster pace than the gold price, which often results in leveraged gains.


The recent breakout above resistance at $1,800 (red circle in the chart) was very significant for gold and was followed by a quick rally of an additional $100 to $1,900 per ounce. And there is plenty of upside left in this rally in our view, with the price still below the mid-point of the trend channel. If we use the last major bull cycle in gold as a guide, we forecast the price to climb toward $6,000 by the start of 2026. This would represent another 10-year cycle and 6x move from the December 2015 bottom around $1,050.




Forecasted Gold Price Targets


We have added price targets for the start of each year that fall in the middle of the trend channel. This analysis gives us the following median price points for the years ahead:


    • January 2021: $2,250
    • January 2023: $3,200
    • January 2025: $4,600
    • January 2026: $5,600

These are just the mid-points and not the highs for each year. At the top of the trend channel, we get the following price forecasts:


    • January 2021: $2,700
    • January 2023: $4,000
    • January 2025: $5,750
    • January 2026: $7,000

This gives us some indication of where we might expect the price of gold to peak in the years ahead and the magnitude of gains that we expect.


If the 250% advance to a potential high around $7,000 seems exciting to you, consider that quality mining stocks will typically offer leverage of around 3x during these periods, suggesting the potential for gains of 750% over the next 5.5 years. Of course, there are all types of variables that could impact the price trajectory for gold, but this gives us a rough idea of the potential ahead. To the downside, I suppose the government could display fiscal restraint and the FED could raise interest rates and reduce their balance sheet. Perhaps the annual deficit could shrink and the debt-to-GDP ratio could fall as the United States shifts to a surplus and pays down debt. But yeah, those odds are incredibly slim.


On the other side of the spectrum, we could be conservative in our estimates of how much new money will be created and how low interest rates could go in an effort to avoid a stock market collapse and the political fallout that would accompany it. A steady rise in inflation could give way to rapid inflationary pressure or even hyperinflation in the years ahead. If the dollar loses its world reserve status and people lose faith in governments and central bank fiat money, the upside price target that we listed (denominated in dollars) could end up being very conservative. In that case, we would want to start measuring the value of gold based on a basket of other scarce assets/commodities, rather than fractional reserve fiat money.


At any rate, we believe that gold and gold miners are currently very undervalued and expect the price to increase rapidly over the next few years. Prices for the metals and miners could get dragged down if the stock market has another major correction to March levels or lower, but we believe the dip in gold will be shorter and shallower than most are expecting. As with past stock market crashes, there is usually only a short window when leveraged longs and weak-handed speculators are forced to cover or panic out of positions. This is typically followed by capital flowing back into the sector, partially due to the inevitable response of governments and central banks to further debase their currencies in an attempt to stimulate growth. So, we think it makes sense to remain long with core positions and keep some cash on the sidelines to take advantage of any such dips.


If you are interested in receiving our investment research, please check out our new website at nicoyaresearch.com. We offer 4 different newsletters covering different investment sectors and have added a chat room where we are busy daily posting news, charts and trading ideas for subscribers. We have a track record of outpacing the market and believe you will find that the research pays for itself many times over.


Jason Hamlin


Founder - Nicoya Research







Jason Hamlin is the founder of Nicoya Research and has been publishing investment research at goldstockbull.com since 2006. His background is in data analytics for the world’s largest market research firm. Jason consulted to Fortune 500 companies around the globe, including Nestlé, Johnson & Johnson and Del Monte. Jason eventually left the corporate world and leveraged his analytical skills to trade stocks successfully full-time. Jason is a contrarian, cycles investor and student of Austrian economics. He is a proponent of sound money, limited government, decentralization of power and the non-aggression principle (NAP). His website is at nicoyaresearch.com. You can reach Jason at: https://nicoyaresearch.com/contact-us/.​









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edsl48

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To add to the above there are many other opinions that are bullish on gold going forward.
https://www.munknee.com/3k-to-20k-gold-coming-these-pundits-think-so/

47 Gold Forecasts: More & More Analysts Say $3,000 Is Assured; $10,000 Is Likely; $20,000 Is Possible


$20,000 Gold
1. Goldrunner: $20,000 between mid-2028 and end of 2029

  • This forecast seems rather extreme but Goldrunner has an enviable track record so he is someone worth paying attention to. Back in April 2011, when gold was trading around $1,500/ozt., Goldrunner projected in an article published on munKNEE.com that gold would reach somewhere between $1,860/ozt. and $1,920/ozt. by mid-year and it did just that reaching $1,917.20 in late August and peaking at $1,923.70 in early September. Now he says that, “as a result of the recent massive paper money printing, our chart work suggests that gold could possibly spike up to as high as $20,000 per troy ounce – or even a bit higher – some time between mid-2028 and the end of 2029.” Source
2. Pierre Lassonde: $20,000 in 2 – 5 years

  • “Gold prices should skyrocket to much higher levels, even $20,000 in two to five years’ time, as gold reaches a price level close to the level of the Dow Jones Industrial Index.” Source
3. Egon Von Greyerz: $20,000

  • “I believe a gold price of $20,000 is very probable, even without high inflation.” Source
$10,000 Gold
1. James Rickards: $10,000

  • “$10,000 per troy ounce is not pie in the sky. It’s not a number I pulled out of a hat to get headlines. It’s the actual mathematical implied non deflationary price of gold.” Source
2. Daniel Oliver: $10,000

  • “The money to push gold over $10,000 per troy ounce has already been printed and now they are going to print more…No doubt strong fiscal and monetary intervention may extend its life for a time, but then the ultimate price objective for gold will then be markedly higher.” Source
3. Max Keiser: $10,000

  • To deal with the disaster of “trash fiat money” choking the global economy, a new gold standard will need to be introduced “and to make it work, we will see gold’s price top $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
4. Adam O’Dell: $10,000

  • “The price is guaranteed to hit near $10,000.” Source
5. AG Thorson: $7,000 – $10,000

  • “By the end of this decade, we expect gold to reach $7,500 – $10,000.” Source
6. Peter Schiff: $5,000 to $10,000

  • Schiff projects a price of between $5,000 and $10,000 per troy ounce, and says the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is now valued at about 12 times the price of gold, will trade at just 7.5 times instead. Eventually, he sees gold and the Dow trading at even money. Source
7. Don Durrett: $3,000 to $10,000

  • “My price target for gold is somewhere between $3,000 and $10,000.” Source
$7,000 -$9,000 Gold
1. Florian Grummes: $8,000 to $9,000 in 5 to 10 years

“We could end up having gold at $8,000 to $9,000 gold in five to 10 years.” Source

2. Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark Valek: $4,800 to $8,900 by 2030

“The proprietary valuation model shows a gold price of USD 4,800 at the end of this decade, even with conservative calibration. Should money supply growth develop in a similar inflationary manner to that of the 1970s, a gold price of USD 8,900 is conceivable by 2030.” Source

3. Gov Capital: $5,837 by 2023; $7,220 by 2024; $8,531 by 2025

  • “5 year gold forecast: $8530.74” Source
4. Jason Hamlin: $4,000 to $8,000 by 2025

  • “We fully expect to see the gold price close out the year 2025 somewhere between $4,000 and $8,000 per troy ounce.” Source
5. Jeff Clark: $3,000 to $8,000 in 5 years

  • “Potential 5-year high: $3,000 to $8,000.” Source
6. Charlie Morris: $7,166

  • “A bullish target of $7,166 is both logical and plausible.” Source
$4,000 – $5,000 Gold
1. Rob McEwen: $5,000

  • The founder of Goldcorp Inc., McEwen predicts that gold will soar almost fourfold to $5,000 a troy ounce, bolstered by a weaker dollar and waning demand for trendy assets like pot stocks. Source
2. Victor Dergunov: $5,000 in 3-5 years

  • “Gold at $5,000 in 3-5 years seems plausible, and it is likely to continue to go higher after that.” Source
3. Dan Popescu: $5,000 in 5 years

  • “Gold price could break above $5,000 in the next 5 years.” Source
4. David Morgan: $5,000 before the end of the decade

  • “Gold could hit $5,000 a troy ounce this decade, especially as the greenback loses purchasing power.” Source
5. Moe Zulfiqar: $5,000 by 2030

  • ” It wouldn’t be shocking to see gold at $5,000 per troy ounce, or more, by 2030. ” Source
6. Brian Whitfield: $5,000 by 2030

  • “I feel I am safe, and being conservative, in saying that gold should be trading between $3000 – $5000 per troy ounce in ten years. Should the US dollar fail and/or the US dollar loses the coveted global reserve currency status and/or even the loss of the petrodollar, gold could hit these level far sooner.” Source
7. Chris Wood: $4,200

  • “A long-term bullish view is maintained on gold bullion, with the ultimate price target still set at US$4,200/ozt..” Source
8. Ole Hansen: $4,000

  • “$4,000 probably is a little bit far-fetched as the world looks right now, but if you look years into the future, then that is possible because the repercussions of what we’re going through right now with the pandemic and the aftermath is going to be something that’s going to be felt for at least this generation and potentially beyond.” Source
9. Geraldo Del Real: $3,000 to $5,000

  • “I actually think US$3,000 to US$5,000 is very reasonable.” Source
10. Thomas Kaplan: $3,000 to $5,000 by 2030

  • “Gold prices could rally as high as $3,000 to $5,000 within a decade.” Source
11. David Rosenberg: $3,000 to $5,000

  • “A $3,000 to $5,000 target.is fundamentally justified based on the facts we have today.” Source
12. Gary Christenson: $3,000 to $5,000 by 2022

  • “A reasonable “status quo” valuation for gold in 2021 is around $3,000. Prices will fall below and occasionally spike much higher than the valuation so a gold price of $5,000 in 2020 – 2022 is plausible.” Source
13. Shaun Djie: $3,000 to $4,000 within 10 years

  • “In the next 10 years, gold will continue to be volatile. Gold could trade anywhere between the levels of $3,000 or $4,000 in the next ten years given how much cash will be potentially put into the economy.” Source
14. Frank Holmes: $4,000 in 3 years

  • “The yellow metal is set to rally in the same fashion as in the aftermath of the last recession and, if cycles are exactly the same, gold could go to $4,000”. Source
15. Diego Parrilla: $3,000 to $5,000 in the next 3 to 5 years

  • Unprecedented monetary stimulus is fueling asset bubbles and corporate debt addiction — rendering interest-rate hikes impossible without an economic crash. In the ensuing market mania gold could rise to $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce in the next three to five years. Source
16. Massimiliano Bondurri: $3,000 to $5,000 in 3 to 5 years

  • Massimiliano Bondurri, a capital founder and a CEО of SGMC, believes an ounce of gold will rise in price to $3,000 -$5,000 in the next 3-5 years. Source
17. Eric Fry: $3,000 to $4,000

‘When this ballgame ends, gold with be trading for at least $3,000 an ounce, and an extra-inning affair would not surprise me — lifting the gold price past $4,000.” Source

$3,000 – $3,500 Gold
1. Chris Vermuellen: $3,500

  • “Expect to see an ultimate peak price in gold well above $3,500.” Source
2.

2. Charles Gibson: $3,281

  • “Since 1967, the price of gold has shown an extremely strong (0.909) correlation with the total US monetary base. The more dollars that either are, or could be, in circulation, the higher the expected gold price. With the total US monetary base.now closing in on US$5.5tn the gold price could very reasonably be expected to rise to as high as US$3,281/ozt.” Source
3. Bank of America: $3,000 by end of 2021

  • BoA raised its 18-month price target for gold to $3,000 a troy ounce citing the prospects of endless monetary expansion from central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to limit the economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic. Source
4. WingCapital Investments: $3,000

  • “Using the post-2008 bull market as a guideline during which gold more than doubled within the ensuing 3 years, $3,000 would be a reasonable long-term target in our opinion.” Source
5. Tony Hayes: $3,000 by end of 2020

  • “It seems certain that US$ 2,000 per ounce will soon be exceeded and probably be above US$ 3,000 per troy ounce by year-end.” Source
6. Barry Dawes: $3,000 within 2 to 3 years

  • “I expect to see US$3,000/ozt. in gold over the next 30 months.” Source
7. Kirk Spano: $3,000

  • “The inevitable outcome is inflation and that devalues currencies and overwhelms government debts and that will drive gold to as high as $3,000 per troy ounce.” Source
8. Brian Lundin: $3,000 by 2024

  • “I think we’ll set a new record in real terms, exceeding $3,000, at some point over the next four years or so.” Source
9. Byron King: $3,000

  • “I think Bank of America is on track. I don’t think there’s any question gold will see $3,000. As with all things in life, it’s just a question of how long it will take.” Source
10. Ben Morris and Drew McConnell: $3,000

  • “$3,000 per troy ounce isn’t a long shot.” Source
11. Alex Mashinsky: $3,000 by end of 2021

  • Mashinsky sees gold climbing to $3,000/ozt. by the end of next year but admits that even more gains are possible depending on how bad the currency debasement gets. Source
12. Robert Kiyosaki: $3,000 within 1 year

  • “I predict $3,000 gold in 1 year.” Source
13. Stewart Thomson: $3,000

  • Queen Gold is assured of launching above the key $2,000 price zone, ready to begin a rocket blast towards my medium-term $3,000 target!” Source
14. Leon Wilfan: $3,000 in 2021

  • “If the economy contracts further and we enter a protracted recession, then gold could reach $3,000 in 2021.” Source