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Gold / Silver ratio revisited

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90.1
 

oldgaranddad

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BigJim#1-8

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89.87/1 this AM. Both metals up.
 

savvydon

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Here is a blow up of the only three year period (beside right now) since the gold window was closed (in 1971) that the GSR has been above 90. It shows that the GSR flitted between the low 80s and low 90s for a 2-3 year period. Other than one brief several month spike to near 100 in late 1990, it never got above 92 and change:

screenshot_97.png


Just to provide a little perspective if and when we move up from here...
 

Strawboss

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We are currently presented with an opportunity that only rears its head very, very rarely...its only happened 1x before in the last 50 years.

Everyone should be swapping their gold for silver...with urgency and purpose. Anyone that doesnt will surely wish they had when the ratio is at 50...or lower...(and 50 is being very conservative)...
 

oldgaranddad

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the_shootist

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Agreed 100% Gold won't all of a sudden crash. It's undervalued too. The right move is to keep buying silver at these prices IMHO (note: my humble opinion don't mean shit by the way)
 
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savvydon

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You guys are right on it imo. There is usually a bit of dealer vig on a trade so another approach is to focus on the silver end of things and just keep accumulating...
 

oldgaranddad

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BigJim#1-8

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89.73/1 Friday AM. Both metals up.
 

savvydon

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Obligatory Sunday night Asian metal beat down in progress. Silver leading the way down. GSR back up over 90 as I type.
 

BigJim#1-8

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90.22/1 per coininfo to start the week.
 

savvydon

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I guess we are probably going to hit a 100 before it goes back down
I have absolutely no idea what is coming, but I'm going to form an opinion just the same. Two assumptions:

1)Silver's absolute current day bottom is about $14, give or take a few cents. This seems to be a post 2011 hard stop. I could be wrong here, but I won't believe so until I see it happen.

2)Gold's 'Maginot line' these days seems to be in the $1360-80 area. Gold has tried numerous times the past five or six years, unsuccessfully so far, to get above this number. It is widely felt that when it crosses this line a quick advance up into the $1500 level is likely, due to the lack of resistance between $1380 and $1500. At this point gold should catch the attention of average Joe investor. When this happens, silver (poor man's gold) should start to see increased interest from the public and receive a proportional boost. Silver is a smaller market than gold, so an increase of interest on the part of a similar proportion of the population should catapult its price to a greater extent proportionally than gold. It is at this point that the GSR should come back down to earth.

All this is pure guesswork, but even at gold $1320 and silver $14 we are still only at 94/95. Getting up over 100 would take a helluva squeeze. I don't think we are going to see it. Then again one quick look at my incredibly shrinking account fund will tell you that I have been wrong before... many times.;)
 

BigJim#1-8

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90.47/1 hump day close.
 

the_shootist

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due to the lack of resistance between $1380 and $1500
Great post and a sensible theory but I must ask you to help me better understand what you mean by this.
 

savvydon

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screenshot_98.png


I'm a technical lightweight but I can help with the basics. When looking at a chart, look to your left. That represents what the price action has been. Also remember that on the way up when price resistance gets breached it becomes support. Similarly, when price falls through support that support level then becomes resistance. In 2010 the price of gold was on the move. It eventually rose to over $1800. Following this high it flopped around between the $1500-$1700 area for a year or two. The bulls kept waiting for the next leg up. Then, in spring of 2013 the bears really started to turn the screws. The price of gold started to rapidly fall below support at $1500, culminating in the nearly $100 drop over a long weekend in April 2013. Following this bombing gold tried to bounce back, failing to break through the new resistance in the high $1300s. The next five to six years, leading up until now, have been a series of attempts for gold to break through that resistance in the high $1300s. If and when we get through this significant resistance, say at the $1380 level or so, there is really no significant resistance again on this chart until we get over $1500. What that means is, it will take a lot of market energy to break through toward $1400, but when it does it should be relatively easy for the price to rise up above $1500 or so.
 

BigJim#1-8

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90.1/1 with Au over $1350 & Ag over $15, interesting.
 

the_shootist

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90.1/1 with Au over $1350 & Ag over $15, interesting.
Check again, the manipulators took some profits the past 30 minutes, as I highly suspected they would. It's like clockwork!
 

BigJim#1-8

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Check again, the manipulators took some profits the past 30 minutes, as I highly suspected they would. It's like clockwork!
That's what they do. Give it a minute, back over 1350 & .02 short of 15.
 

the_shootist

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They've been pounding down metals all day until we're finally in the negative for the day and still heading south! I think its hilarious how they blatantly manipulate the markets with impunity! In the meantime I'll keep buying the dips!
 

BigJim#1-8

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90.78/1 for the weekend. Is 91+ in the picture?
 

BigJim#1-8

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90.37/1 to start the week.
 

BigJim#1-8

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90.52/1 with both Au & Ag up. Ratio stays consistent.
 

BigJim#1-8

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90.77/1 with both Au & Ag up. ??????
Seems the ratio stays the same no matter the ups or downs...
 

Strawboss

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Wait for a correction. Sentiment is very high right now. High sentiment readings are usually indicative of a near term top in prices. Of course past performance is no guarantee of future blah blah...

A lesson shared from painful experience.
 

Argent Dragon

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Who let the dogs out ???
 

the_shootist

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At this point I am tempted to trade some gold. I am usually a gold hold guy no matter what but this is very tempting. I wonder what my dealer will trade gold for silver right now.
Meh...I bought more gold today. Gold is the 'wealth safe keeping' part of my retirement portfolio. Selling it for useless FRNs again sort of defeats the purpose of that part of my plan

Like SB says, the correction beatdown will come soon enough! It always come around and pisses on our parade!
 
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Meh...I bought more gold today. Gold is the 'wealth safe keeping' part of my retirement portfolio. Selling it for useless FRNs again sort of defeats the purpose of that part of my plan

Like SB says, the correction beatdown will come soon enough! It always come around and pisses on our parade!
I was just thinking of a straight trade of a Gold Buffalo for something around 87-90 ounces of Silver. I'm calling my dealer.
 

the_shootist

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stAGgering

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Quarterly completion, CAUTION !!
Have not heard a peep from you guys over this.
Nothing like a 6% drop right ?
I have no guess as to direction in next 24hrs.
Would love to see the old pattern take one in the head two in the chest.