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Hurricane Dorian Tracking Thread

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mayhem

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#1
This storm IS going to hit somewhere between Key West and South Georgia. I will post the updates from Tropical Tidbits as he releases them. He has been the most accurate projector on all the storms for the last 3 years. He gives viewers more detail than any other site I have found. So far we (those in southern fla) are a prime target, but as with all storms nothing is accurate until the storm is one day out. So stay tuned and I will post his highly detailed video's as he puts them out. Time to consider checking your preps is now so your not running around at the last minute. The TV guys are in full panic mode as can be expected. It's all about eyeballs ya know.

 

Hystckndle

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#3
I think it is Mondayish.
It is in drier air now.
Headed into much warmer and humidity area.
Gonna vector around the high level low, head into mainland, steered by higher ridge to its northeast , just depends on how much ...but a slight chance to drift a bit north.
Eye is not very organized, but freaking will be... it did not go directly over mountains etc to disperse. Open water for the most part.
Will get more organized.
And for now...a bit smaller than many.
However,
A few others...
Andrew and Charlie.
Got into that warmer and became screamers.
That is the concern. And a valid one.
We will see.
Going into water ( rain ) dispersement mode in the morning.
That is bigger deal where I am as well as tornado spin offs.
5 to 10 inches of rain in 24 hours easy on the NE side of the eye is no joke.
2 years ago I dismantled my outdoor shop etc for the direct passover.
This time...dunno yet for sure but gonna enclose ething completely with tarps and wrap everything with # 12 solid and tie it down for pre emptive.
Worked pretty good in 2017 and in others.
Just gotta avoid the downed trees....lol.
Havent turned the tee vee on yet...been listening to the above guy for a few years.
Way better than the hype.
All good.
 
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mayhem

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#5
I think it is Mondayish.
It is in drier air now.
Headed into much warmer and humidity area.
Gonna vector around the high level low, head into mainland but a slight chance to drift north.
Eye is not very organized but it did not go directly over mountains etc to disperse.
Will get more organized.
And smaller than many.
However,
A few others...
Andrew and Charlie.
Got into that warmer and became screamers.
Will see.
Thanks Vic, now I won't have to be so prepared.
From what I got from Levy's YT somewhere between you and me. :-)
 

mayhem

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#6
Thanks Mayhem!

I always liked this guy's reporting...
Your welcome sir. He does a complete explanation for us GED folks and you smart kids
.
 

newmisty

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#7
Stay safe either way all you Floridians.
 

Hystckndle

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#9
Thanks Vic, now I won't have to be so prepared.
From what I got from Levy's YT somewhere between you and me. :-)
Yes.
Still a crap shoot.
Good with being on SW side and hugging coast..
Drifts south and goes across state...we are on NE side ...bad ...
way more rain.
And floating tornadoes topping trees.
Tree through roof to the floor in Charlie here and 2 decent 24" or so dia oaks across yard in 2017. ...running outta trees ...lol
Funny...anoher went the other way and root ball smoked about 20 feet or so of my fence up into air on the back side.
They just cut it down to near the ball...I trimed some roots and vectored around it a foot or so and buttoned my perimiter up.....4 weeks ago...
All good.
 

mayhem

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#10
At the end he shows some models by " Weathernerds "
Interesting set up there.
His bio says he is a long time undergrad at UF. He writes all the code he uses to compile his streams.

He did slip in that it probably be as strong as Jeane back in 04. That wasn't all bad for me because Francis hit the same spot exactly two weeks before convincing be to eliminate any tree that would cause serious damage here.
 

Hystckndle

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#11
I remember BB posting here when Charlie went right over him in S Cent Fl headed here.
Guy I worked with...still in same house now as then in Naples / Ft Myers area...
Said it stripped all the seamless gutters off his house easy peasy, not to mention shingles etc and it was the most awesome sound he has ever heard.
Same here....and some of the most awesome colors in the lightning I have ever seen.
Few days out.
But....Panic now....avoid the rush....lol
Fuel depot and and water depot ( garbage cans ) going into effect tomorrow morning.
All good.
 

Hystckndle

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#12
His bio says he is a long time undergrad at UF. He writes all the code he uses to compile his streams.

He did slip in that it probably be as strong as Jeane back in 04. That wasn't all bad for me because Francis hit the same spot exactly two weeks before convincing be to eliminate any tree that would cause serious damage here.
Yeah...Charlie , Francis , Jeanne and Ivan and another one an FPL lady I talked to on the phone a few weeks ago said I forgot.
What a hoot that year was...
GCs screaming about schedules...
Was looking for a 10 thousand $ CB on a special order for a job...
Turns out the semi driver got to a plaza on the turn pikd and said " F this ",
Left his tow at onna those parking areas ( with all the cargo on it ) and he turned around and drove back to Tennessee.
Yeah...logistics..all hosed for a few weeks.
People still yelling ..." where is my stuff ? "
Cops here escorting power crews cuz people attack them etc etc.
:) :)
 

Hystckndle

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#13

nickndfl

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#14
His bio says he is a long time undergrad at UF. He writes all the code he uses to compile his streams.

He did slip in that it probably be as strong as Jeane back in 04. That wasn't all bad for me because Francis hit the same spot exactly two weeks before convincing be to eliminate any tree that would cause serious damage here.
I was in Frances and Jeanne plus 3 others going back to Andrew. Got the shutters up and praying it goes north and skims the coast.
shutters.jpg
 

mayhem

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#17
Screen shot from www.windy.com. But we all know that predictions never come true. If this one pans out the eye will be about 30 miles south of Walt and myself. Anyway it's going to be a s#itty day Mo, from the looks of things.

Screenshot 2019-08-29 at 8.44.11 PM.png
Screenshot 2019-08-29 at 8.44.11 PM.png
 

Goldhedge

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#18
Question I have...

If Dorian becomes a major hurricane do we rename it Ionian?
 

mayhem

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#19
I was just playing with the graphics at windy, two different models say I'm fvcked.
 

Fatrat

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#20
Time for the age old Floridian Prayer, "Please let it hit somewhere else, please let it hit..." looks to be well south of me, hope it blows out to sea anyway.
 

newmisty

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#21
Question I have...

If Dorian becomes a major hurricane do we rename it Ionian?
This is the only other Dorian I've heard of:


Hopefully it's not a sign of what's to come.
 

Fatrat

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#22
1567127330261.png
John Dorian from Scrubs....
 

Strawboss

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#23
It might be bad timing...but...

Any of you in Florida that suffers damage to your home...you know like roof, siding, windows, etc...

Just kiddin'

Stay safe...

My son lives in Ocala - north of Orlando...
 

mayhem

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#24
It might be bad timing...but...

Any of you in Florida that suffers damage to your home...you know like roof, siding, windows, etc...

Just kiddin'

Stay safe...

My son lives in Ocala - north of Orlando...
The way these storms jump around when they get close he might still be in a danger zone.

When playing with the models at winds, it had the storm doing a quick south turn like Andrew did in 92. Thing Nancy has a locator beacon on Mar Largo? DJT has mega millions tied up in 3 golf courses in Dorian's path.
 

mayhem

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#25
Update just In.


 

mayhem

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#27
He predicts that the storm will slow way down. Francis back in 2004 sat on top of for 33 hours moving at 1mph. We sat on the front porch watching the pin trees doing a 90 degree bends all day. But Francis was only a Cat 2. I'm stuck with nowhere to go. Yeah I could go to a county shelter, but I'd rather die here than listen ti screaming kids and their 300 lb mothers.
 

Hystckndle

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#28
0250.
3rd trip to WaWa and 200 dropped on fuel.
Most small stores and some chains, 711, Kangaroo, Hess, etc are out.
WaWa had tanker truck in the lot.
Earlier tonight just decided to skip as it was a madhouse just like earlier today.
People yelling and near fisticuffs.
Regular stuff.
Man.....society has gotten soft.
Took Thursday and Friday off for a so called long weekend.
Heh...little did I know.
Way better though NOT watching the tee vee just go on and on and on about destruction.
Also of note...no evacuation freak outs as of yet. Dunno if anyone else has heard anything ?
Those have been a cluster in the past...perhaps they lightened up on some of that. At least the SOE gets the shelters open and such.
Will button up more tomorrow.
Some water barrels and trip to the bank.
Pretty much done.
Hang tight Mayhem and UW and Nick...
The Bermuda high might turn this one and it won t slide by you.
Regards to all,
 

BarnacleBob

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#29
Wouldnt ya know it, traveled to Fort Pierce to visit the kids & grandkids, only to be disrupted by this storm. As a FLA native, been thru many, many storms.... damn non-native sheeple freak out every time.
 
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mayhem

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#30
A screen shot from windy.com a few minutes ago, on the projected path. This is Tue. @ 2 am

Screenshot 2019-08-30 at 3.09.44 PM.png
 

mayhem

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#31

<SLV>

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#32
Is Dorian a hurricane?
 

Thecrensh

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#35
Ok all...here is the deal.

The Northward move for Dorian is CONTINGENT on an as of yet undeveloped 1032mb high pressure that is predicted to be over Wisconsin on Saturday moving about 2000miles into the mid-Atlantic by Tuesday! We're talking Wisconsin to South of Iceland distances.

Normally strong high pressures don't move that fast...but all the models are predicting similar movement of the high, therefore all the models could very well be wrong.

IF this High doesn't move as anticipated, look for Dorian to either stagger NE deeper into the Atlantic, or stall out with a weak and slow Westerly track...toward the Florida straight between Cuba.

Stand by!
 

BarnacleBob

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BarnacleBob

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Fatrat

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#38
What the heck is the European model...The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Model is widely considered the best for predicting global weather patterns and has been beating the other models in terms of accuracy, but looking to rely on one model over another isn’t the correct approach, National Weather Service meteorologist Ryan Rogers said.
 

Thecrensh

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What the heck is the European model...The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Model is widely considered the best for predicting global weather patterns and has been beating the other models in terms of accuracy, but looking to rely on one model over another isn’t the correct approach, National Weather Service meteorologist Ryan Rogers said.
So a decade or so ago, the Europeans put a TON of $$ into their prediction models and ended up making them more accurate. The US just started doing so recently, so we're behind the 8-ball as it were, but getting better.
 
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