• Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
  • There are no markets
  • "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Intra-Bank Lending begins to crash.

Scorpio

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#4
I could not listen to the whole thing as to me she is just plain hard to listen to

She states interbank is way down as banks don't feel they will get their dough back.
Seriously?

What if it was down because the system is at max capacity and the banks don't have the need to find liquidity from other parties? A relative short term phenomenon that bleeds off some excess, prior to the main trend reasserting itself.

A lack of demand for dough as the Fed is now doing all the heavy lifting. Since '-08 or so, the Fed has completely taken over the markets and now dominate the area. This is shown in the chart.

The only true way for that chart to reverse and establish an uptrend, is for the Fed to remove itself from the markets.

This speaker completely ignores the elephant in the room as though it has no bearing or is of no consequence. I suppose too busy arrogantly trying to have a aha moment.
 
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the_shootist

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#5
I could not listen to the whole thing as to me she is just plain hard to listen to

She states interbank is way down as banks don't feel they will get their dough back.
Seriously?

What if it was down because the system is at max capacity and the banks don't have the need to find liquidity from other parties? A relative short term phenomenon that bleeds off some excess, prior to the main trend reasserting itself.

A lack of demand for dough as the Fed is now doing all the heavy lifting. Since '-08 or so, the Fed has completely taken over the markets and now dominate the area. This is shown in the chart.

The only true way for that chart to reverse and establish an uptrend, is for the Fed to remove itself from the markets.

This speaker completely ignores the elephant in the room as though it has no bearing or is of no consequence. I suppose too busy arrogantly trying to have a aha moment.
Women love to hear themselves talk. This one is no different
 

BarnacleBob

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#6
I could not listen to the whole thing as to me she is just plain hard to listen to

She states interbank is way down as banks don't feel they will get their dough back.
Seriously?

What if it was down because the system is at max capacity and the banks don't have the need to find liquidity from other parties? A relative short term phenomenon that bleeds off some excess, prior to the main trend reasserting itself.

A lack of demand for dough as the Fed is now doing all the heavy lifting. Since '-08 or so, the Fed has completely taken over the markets and now dominate the area. This is shown in the chart.

The only true way for that chart to reverse and establish an uptrend, is for the Fed to remove itself from the markets.

This speaker completely ignores the elephant in the room as though it has no bearing or is of no consequence. I suppose too busy arrogantly trying to have a aha moment.
I agree that there is an ocean of fiat floating around, but that doesnt explain why around 01/03/2018 that intrabank lending crashed. For example its a rather iffy conclusion to state that the Fed sent out a memo to the banks stating that they can only use the discount window for overnight loans. That is the last thing the banks want to use (the discount window).

The LIBOR chart evidences a steady rise while the Intrabank lending chart can be observed as a crash in the use of the facility. Something abnormal happened around the end of last year that spooked the major banks.

The only significant news found on the above mentioned date is the passage of "The Tax Cut & Jobs Act".
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/287661/stock-market-news-for-jan-03-2018

If I was gonna guess, I'd prolly say a big global lending institution was in trouble and received a stealth bail out. Looks like something failed (prolly foreign) creating a short term panic inside the banking system due to exposure. It is noteworthy to observe that the current chart doesnt reflect that intrabank lending activities have resumed back to the previous levels...... One must wonder if the meteoric rise in BTC is a lagging indicator & somehow connected. The metals are all signalling disinflation combined with the stock correction at this apex.

Dec 11, 2017 · U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley discussed President Donald J. Trump's decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and the Middle East peace.

sc-3.png
 

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#7
It does seem a rather precipitous decline in intra bank lending coming right on the heels of the banking crisis. Also of note, this is right when the fed got serious about piling up assets, at least when they began reporting that they were serious about piling up assets to the tune of approximately 5x. Assets they now claim they'll dispose of...though I fail to see how that happens without bringing everything down.



https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
 

Scorpio

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#8
precipitous decline?????

seriously?

from a incredibly low level comparatively to a lower level comparatively

precipitous my ass............any decline would result in a massive chart pic

a $1 stock moves up 50 cent, makes for quite a chart statement,
but is it really that big a deal?
no

whereas that same 50 cent move on a $50 stock doesn't even show up.

people like that broad continue to misrepresent stuff to 'form fit' their preconceived notions,

and as you listen to her further, then she yammers on about only 'graded' or slabbed stuff to protect against the inevitable,

I quit listening at that point...........
 

solarion

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#9
I didn't listen to her at all...at least not yet. I've heard this particular lass before, her voice/mannerisms are annoying and nearly everything she says is obvious. She's like a poor man's Cathy A Fitts.

...yeah BB's chart of intra bank lending looks precipitous to me, preconceived notion or otherwise. We could also hunt up a chart of base "money" expansion, but I believe we'd find it went strato"spheric" around the same time did fed assets. It seems apparent something was being papered over. We're led to believe that was the mortgage CDO/MBS markets, and that somehow things were "fixed". Now the fed is supposedly disposing of these assets and rates are heading Northward. So what's next? More QE to fix the damage that will be inflicted.
 

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#10
I get ya solarion,

but remember, the stupid bitch is using a data point from right after a end of year, right after double 4 day weeks due to holidays, etc.

if something crashed then, you wouldn't have had stocks exploding for the next month and 1/2 to the up
 

BarnacleBob

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#11
precipitous decline?????

seriously?

from a incredibly low level comparatively to a lower level comparatively

precipitous my ass............any decline would result in a massive chart pic

a $1 stock moves up 50 cent, makes for quite a chart statement,
but is it really that big a deal?
no

whereas that same 50 cent move on a $50 stock doesn't even show up.

people like that broad continue to misrepresent stuff to 'form fit' their preconceived notions,

and as you listen to her further, then she yammers on about only 'graded' or slabbed stuff to protect against the inevitable,

I quit listening at that point...........
I turned her off too when she went into the gold slab sales pitch. Regardless of her, the chart speaks for itself... For some reason at that very moment in time, the system locked up and the volume & velocity of intrabank lending declined, creating the waterfall decline observed in the chart. If the chart is current, then it can also be observed that the decline isnt temporary or transitory but rather ongoing, as the decline in intrabank lending has not recovered as yet....

There is one other possibility that may be connected to the 2018 Tax Cut & Jobs Act. Namely that corporate repatriation of funds from overseas foreign jurisdictions back into the U.S. banking system has effectively recapitalized the domestic banking system, ergo creating a declining & lower demand for intrabank lending activities.... That said, as trillions in corporate capital outflows move into the U.S. banking & financial system it must be placing great stress & voids upon the jurisdictions from which these funds are withdrawn from, i.e. creating margin calls and much higher lending standards as the outflows result in capital becoming scarcer.

This could and would explain the Wallstreet sell off as foreign investment would be forced to repatriate funds home to fill the gaps & voids in their banking system that were created when U.S. corporates withdrew funds & returned said funds to the U.S. financial system.


fredgraph.png
 
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Scorpio

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#12
That said, as trillions in corporate capital outflows move into the U.S. banking & financial system it must be placing great stress & voids upon the jurisdictions from which these funds are withdrawn from
quite the opposite,

flooding the markets with liquidity, ie decreasing the demand

like I said, excess capital laying around all over

too much fiat

-------

but I will state, there is no way all the capital has become repatriated as of yet. That takes time in the volumes we are speaking to, or months if not longer to decide to do it, and what to do with it once brought back
 

BarnacleBob

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#13
quite the opposite,

flooding the markets with liquidity, ie decreasing the demand

like I said, excess capital laying around all over

too much fiat

-------

but I will state, there is no way all the capital has become repatriated as of yet. That takes time in the volumes we are speaking to, or months if not longer to decide to do it, and what to do with it once brought back
Seems to me that as ANY dollars are repatriated back to the U.S. financial & banking system it would create a shortage of $ in the foreign ports & economic jurisdictions..., dollars that are most likely highly levered & being pyramided as collateral in the local economy. Hence any repatriation of levered dollars will cause volatile ripples across foreign markets... meaning they will scramble to fill the holes by repatriating investments held on Wallstreet & around the world. Such an action would technically prick the current bubbles causing these markets to correct..... If the corps slowly repatriate these funds it would act as a relief valve allowing the global economy to slowly adjust to the new lower leveraged paradigm.... That would be my guess! There is always risk that deflating the bubble no matter how slowly it is drained will cause various failures & defaults. We watch!
 

solarion

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#14
I get ya solarion,

but remember, the stupid bitch is using a data point from right after a end of year, right after double 4 day weeks due to holidays, etc.

if something crashed then, you wouldn't have had stocks exploding for the next month and 1/2 to the up
Not sure, as I haven't kept up on Swiss national bank holdings. lol

These markets seem fake phony and false to me, so I admit I don't pay all that much attention any more. Market direction seems to be 90% about central bankster actions/non-actions/guidance and 10% fundamentals.
 

the_shootist

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Not sure, as I haven't kept up on Swiss national bank holdings. lol

These markets seem fake phony and false to me, so I admit I don't pay all that much attention any more. Market direction seems to be 90% about central bankster actions/non-actions/guidance and 10% fundamentals.
I have not ever pretended to understand the markets. Surely I will never understand them like you guys do. I have a portion of my wealth in a 401K and a couple of annuities I bought before I was made aware of what a mistake that was but, the majority I have is out of the market. I just can't trust something I don't understand and that appears to be controlled for the benefit of others much richer than I.
 

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#16
...

but I will state, there is no way all the capital has become repatriated as of yet. That takes time in the volumes we are speaking to, or months if not longer to decide to do it, and what to do with it once brought back
Who is sending the fiat back? To send the fiat back you need people that hold the fiat to actually go to America or go into the marketplace and buy things in the nation. Buying facebook stock is not at all the same as "sending the fiat back."

To have the fiat come back millions of people who are holding the fiat would need to hurry up and get their visa. My take is it's not coming back.
 

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#17
Liquidity hoarding

Another possible explanation for the seizing up of interbank lending is that banks were hoarding liquidity in anticipation of future shortages. Two modern features of the financial industry suggest this hypothesis is not implausible. First, banks have come to rely much less on deposits as a source of funds and more on short-term wholesale funding (brokered CDs, asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP), interbank repurchase agreements, etc.). Many of these markets came under stress during the early phase of the crisis, particularly the ABCP market. This meant banks had fewer sources of funds to turn to, although an increase in retail deposits over this period provided some offset.

Second, it has become common for corporations to turn to markets rather than banks for short-term funding. In particular, before the crisis firms were regularly tapping commercial paper markets for funds. These corporations still had lines of credit set up with banks, but they used them more as a source of insurance. After the near collapse of the commercial paper market, however, firms took advantage of this insurance and banks had no choice but to provide the liquidity. Thus, firms’ use of credit lines during the crisis increased illiquidity risks for banks. Lastly, banks’ off-balance sheet programs (SIVs for example) relied on short-term ABCP to operate; when this market dried up, banks in some cases had to take the assets from these vehicles onto their balance sheets. All of these factors made liquidity risk management especially challenging during this time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interbank_lending_market
 

mayhem

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#18
and as you listen to her further, then she yammers on about only 'graded' or slabbed stuff to protect against the inevitable,

I quit listening at that point...........
That put the brakes on for me also. But I do like to listen to different opinions. Usually there is a nugget in a persons view somewhere.
 

mayhem

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#19
@BarnacleBob Bob and @Scorpio Enlightening discussion. Well for me at least as I was never a Stwaks guy. Thanks.
 

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#20
Something VERY Serious is Happening with Banks - they've almost stopped lending TO EACH OTHER
Category: World News
Saturday, 10 February 2018 21:34



A little over three weeks ago, I became aware of a sudden and dramatic change in the US Banking System that made my stomach sick. I "sat" on this story for almost three weeks hoping what I found was some type of anomaly or data error. It's not.

Bankers have almost completely stopped lending . . . . TO EACH OTHER.

The plunge in "InterBank Lending" was so sudden and so substantial that it looks as though it is actually a PLAN, not happenstance or situationally appropriate.

It LOOKS like the Bankers are intentionally choking the US Economy and they're doing so at levels far FAR worse than what took place during the "Fiscal Crisis" of 2007-08.

For more than 45 years, the Federal Reserve has tracked virtually E V E R Y aspect of banking in the United States. They literally look at EVERY financial metric and provide incredible amounts of public reporting to anyone willing to spend time on the Federal Reserve Electronic Data (FRED) web site.

As your trusted media servant, I peruse vast amounts of information every day to keep you abreast of what's taking place, and give you insight as to how and why certain things happen. So when I undertook my usual perusal of FRED and saw what I am about to show you, I was shocked.

INTERBANK LENDING

First, let me explain what INTERBANK lending is. The interbank lending market is a market in which banks extend loans to one another for a specified term. Most interbank loans are for maturities of one week or less, the majority being overnight. Such loans are made at the interbank rate (also called the overnight rate if the term of the loan is overnight).

A sharp decline in transaction volume in this market was a major contributing factor to the collapse of several financial institutions during the financial crisis of 2007.

Banks are required to hold an adequate amount of liquid assets, such as cash, to manage any potential bank runs by clients. If a bank cannot meet these liquidity requirements, it will need to borrow money in the interbank market to cover the shortfall. Some banks, on the other hand, have excess liquid assets above and beyond the liquidity requirements. These banks will lend money in the interbank market, receiving interest on the assets.

The interbank rate is the rate of interest charged on short-term loans between banks. Banks borrow and lend money in the interbank lending market in order to manage liquidity and satisfy regulations such as reserve requirements. The interest rate charged depends on the availability of money in the market, on prevailing rates and on the specific terms of the contract, such as term length. There is a wide range of published interbank rates, including the federal funds rate (USA), the LIBOR (UK) and the Euribor (Eurozone).

Having now explained what INTERBANK LENDING is, and how it is H U G E L Y important for those funds to be available so banks can go about their daily business without running afoul of the law or Depositor needs, take a look at the FRED Data for INTERBANK LENDING for the last twelve months: (Click image to enlarge)

Interbank-2017.jpg


Did you see the problem? Let me point it out:

2.png


Yes. You see that correctly. INTERBANK LENDING CAME TO A VIRTUAL HALT, plunging from $68.034 BILLION for the week of December 27, to a terrifying level of $13.237 Billion as of January 3, 2018. That's a DROP of EIGHTY-ONE PERCENT (81%) in one week.

Of course, some folks may have a knee-jerk rection to this and say something like "Hey Hal, it was the week between Christmas and New Years. Business was slow. Don't worry about it."

OK. But this has never . . . . and I can prove N E V E R . . . happened before!

To show you how utterly extraordinary this is, take a look at 45 years of INTERBANK LENDING from the FRED reports:

3.png


Going all the way back to 1973, INTERBANK LENDING has never ---- N E V E R --- been this low. Not even in the "Recession" of 2008-2009 ! ! !

Each of those years had a week between Christmas and New Years. NOT ONCE IN 45 YEARS did the Interbank Lending grind to a halt as it has now.

Let me put this in perspective for you. As of January 3, 2018, the Interbank Lending is about $13 Billion for the week. The FRED Data goes back to January 3, 1973 at which time it was $29 Billion.

Therefore, 45 years later. in an economy that is much, MUCH bigger, the Interbank Lending has collapsed to about 1/2 of what it was in 1973.

WHY?

What happened to cause this? Good question. And it is a question that NO ONE in the Banking Community seems willing to speak with me about.

For those unfamiliar, I live in New Jersey, about three miles due west of the Empire State Building in midtown Manhattan, New York City. I can pull my car out of my driveway and be in midtown Manhattan in minutes (barring traffic!).

We've got ALL the banks here; ALL of the biggest, most powerful, most influential banks.

We've got back-office Bank Operations occupying entire skyscrapers. Tens-of-thousands of people in the Banking industry . . . . and I know a LOT of those people, socially and professionally. NONE of them will talk about this. Not a peep. Nothing.

Even the Federal Reserve told me "no comment."

THAT is troubling to me. (Story continues below Ad)

Usually, no matter what the story, someone . . . usually quite a few someones . . . . are willing to talk, even if it's off-the-record. Not on this topic. Lips are sealed.

That tells me "trouble." It also tells me that the recent major swings in the Stock Markets are directly related to this.

GOLD? Nope!

If Interbank Lending has suddenly stopped . . . . because Bankers have DECIDED to stop lending to each other (as opposed to not trusting each other), then it stands to reason that Banks which NEED liquidity to meet regulations and cash requirements, would have to get that cash from somewhere else. The easiest place: The Stock Markets . . . . the Banks can sell-off stocks they have acquired and use the cash to bolster themselves.

This makes a lot of sense when you consider that, on Friday, February 2 (one month into the collapse of InterBank Lending) the Stock Market fell 666 points. If this was due to economic worries by the general public, we would expect to see a rise in the price of Gold. It is well established that when Investors are worried about the future, they buy Gold. But that didn't happen.

On Thursday February 1 - the day BEFORE the 666 Drop in Stocks, Gold closed at $1,349.46, which marked the high for the week. Friday opened with the price of gold slightly off at $1,345.35, and then the yellow metal pulled back to end the week at $1,333.39. The price of gold WENT DOWN as STOCKS WENT DOWN.

So the money pouring OUT of the Stock Market was NOT going into Gold! The cash was going somewhere else. But where?

Days later, on Monday, February 5 - the first open market day since the 666 plunge, The Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 1,100 more points as stocks took their worst loss in six and a half years.

Between Friday and Monday, those two days of steep losses erased the market's gains from the start of this year and ended a period of record-setting calm for stocks.

But again, Gold wasn't phased. Gold closed at $1339.41, up a measly six dollars and two cents ($6.02) from the Friday before!

To me, this is proof that the hundreds-of-billions of dollars coming out of the Stock Market on Friday, February 2 and again on Monday, February 5 is NOT due to Investors seeking safety. The money is going somewhere else.

SPECULATION

Now, I am not a licensed financial planner and cannot offer financial advice. All I am doing here is my job as a Reporter/Journalist/Radio Host, to present the facts and offer my personal views which are clearly evident on their face. DO NOT MAKE ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS BASED ON WHAT I PUBLISH HERE. Consult with a Licensed Financial Expert before making any financial decisions.

Having said that, I still must ask: Why has the Interbank Lending ground to a virtual halt and where is the money going from all the Stock market sales?

It seems to me that either:

1) Banks are selling-off their own Stocks to get cash to sustain themselves (very bad sign) OR . . . . .

2) Someone is pulling HUGE amounts of cash OUT of US Banks and they are scrambling to survive. (Much worse), or

3) The Bankers have decided they don't like new found American Nationalism and are deliberately choking our economy to force a Globalist Agenda upon our President and our people by breaking our economy and saying Globalization is our only hope.

I can't help but wonder - and this is pure speculation on my part -- if perhaps Saudi Prince Alwaleed, having recently been released from custody in Saudi Arabia, is somehow trying to punish the US for the "situation" he found himself in, and may be pulling-out his vast wealth? I have NO EVIDENCE to substantiate this, but when a guy THAT wealthy, gets imprisoned (and reportedly tortured) he may have an "ax to grind" and definitely has the wealth to hurt those who may have hurt him. We also know he is no fan of our President.

Or could this be something else? Something far worse?

Could this be a situation that mimics the 1981 movie with Jane Fonda, Chris Christopherson and Hume Cronin entitled" ROLLOVER?" The situation being reported in this post could very well be the start of real-life efforts portrayed in that movie!

You folks had best prepare, right now. Just in case. Have emergency cash (to survive, not to pay bills) emergency food, emergency fuel for cars, trucks, generators. Extra medicines you may need to survive. and such. Those interested in a list of items to have so as to "Prep" may find THIS LINK useful.

Here's a short clip with the essentials from the movie "ROLLOVER." If _this_ is what's actually taking place, the world is screwed.

 

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TRYNEIN

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#21
???
--------------------------------------------------------


Fed's QE Unwind Accelerates Sharply


With a sense of urgency. No more dilly-dallying around.
The Fed’s balance sheet for the week ending January 31, released this afternoon, completes the fourth month of QE-unwind. And it’s starting to be a doozie.

This “balance sheet normalization” impacts two types of assets: Treasury securities and mortgage backed securities (MBS) that the Fed acquired during the years of QE and maintained afterwards.

The Fed’s plan, as announced in September, is to shrink the balances of Treasuries and MBS by up to $10 billion per month in October, November, and December 2017, then to accelerate the pace every three months. In January, February, and March 2018, the unwind would be capped at $20 billion a month; in Q2, at $30 billion a month; in Q3, at $40 billion a month; and starting in Q4, at $50 billion a month.

According to this plan, balances of Treasuries and MBS will shrink by $420 billion in 2018, by an additional $600 billion in 2019, and by an additional $600 billion every year going forward until the Fed deems the level of its holdings “normal.” Whatever this level may turn out to be, it will be much higher than the level suggested by the growth trajectory before the Financial Crisis.

For January, the plan called for shedding up to $20 billion: $12 billion in Treasuries and $8 billion in MBS.

So how did it go?
On its December 27 balance sheet, the Fed had $2,454 billion of Treasuries. By January 31, it had $2,436 billion: a drop of $18 billion in one month!

This exceeds the planned drop of $12 billion for January. But hey, over the holidays, most folks at the New York Fed, which does the balance sheet operations, were probably off and not much happened. And so this may have been a catch-up action, with a sense of urgency.

In total, since the beginning of the QE Unwind, the balance of Treasuries has plunged by $30 billion, to hit the lowest since August 27, 2014. This part of the QE Unwind is happening:

read more here:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-06/feds-qe-unwind-accelerates-sharply
 

GOLDBRIX

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#22
The only true way for that chart to reverse and establish an uptrend, is for the Fed to remove itself from the markets.
Agree with that but the PPT also needs to be eliminated, along with High Frequency Trading programs.
Trades need to be entered by human hands and brokered by human hands.

A true Free Market. IMO
 

Scorpio

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#23
why these gross mischaracterizations by the media types consistently?

The drop for Jan was reported to be $18B in Jan against TWO THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED FIFTY FOUR BILLIONS

a proverbial drop in the bucket

point being, if you guys really want rationality back, this has to happen

whereas if you want to continue on down the same path for fear of upsetting the apple cart, then you do as HT once stated, inflate inflate until BOOM, it all falls down
 

BarnacleBob

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#24
why these gross mischaracterizations by the media types consistently?

The drop for Jan was reported to be $18B in Jan against TWO THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED FIFTY FOUR BILLIONS

a proverbial drop in the bucket

point being, if you guys really want rationality back, this has to happen

whereas if you want to continue on down the same path for fear of upsetting the apple cart, then you do as HT once stated, inflate inflate until BOOM, it all falls down
Fact is intra-bank lending crashed $68+ bb / 81% in one week and thus far hasnt recovered.... This is big in a highly levered system if it cannot be contained....

@ Scorp... I understand your points of contention, however $68 bb levered x10 is $680 bb ... $18 bb becomes $180+ bb being drained monthly. The Fed has been levered at around 78:1 for a decade, which indicates systemic leverage at X10 would be a very conservative estimate of monthly drainage. Its prolly more like X28 leverage in the system, which means $18 bb now becomes $504 bb drained in a month.

"INTERBANK LENDING CAME TO A VIRTUAL HALT, plunging from $68.034 BILLION for the week of December 27, to a terrifying level of $13.237 Billion as of January 3, 2018. That's a DROP of EIGHTY-ONE PERCENT (81%) in one week."
 

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#25
I hear ya,

The whole point of the fed was that they were going to be doing this. Been advertising it for some time. At this point I will assume that they have also been pulling off the leverage on it prior to initiating the plan.
 

BarnacleBob

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#26
Hmmm.....

"The reality is the cash is not overseas, and it's not really in cash form.

In the real world, the money is often deposited in U.S. banks, circulating in the U.S. economy, and available for a wide variety of domestic investments. For nearly all practical purposes, that money is already here, being put to work in the U.S. economy.

To qualify as “offshore” for tax purposes, U.S. corporate money must be controlled by a foreign subsidiary, but it does not have to be invested abroad. In fact, for many corporations, these foreign profits already sit in Manhattan, in accounts in American banks. For example, as of last May, Apple had $102 billion in “permanently invested overseas” income not subject to the U.S. corporate tax. On Apple’s books, this untaxed profit is “offshore” because it is controlled by two Irish subsidiaries—even though these subsidiaries park their funds in bank accounts in New York. This $102 billion that has yet to be subject to U.S. taxation is already in the United States, not trapped in Ireland. Apple cannot use this money directly for American real estate acquisitions, dividends, share buybacks, or funding for operations in Cupertino, but the money is being loaned out in the American economy by American banks, funding American mortgages and small-business loans just like any other American deposit.

The drive to keep profits “offshore” for tax purposes may limit a parent corporation’s investment options somewhat, but domestic businesses and consumers still have access to multinational corporations’ foreign earnings. This money is not “offshore” economically, and it is not idle—it is already circulating in the American economy, being used for investments in American businesses and families."

https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/e...iation-boom-in-reverse-lSTs6z32sUq8QCNGsHvi0A
 

Usury

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#27
I'm wondering about threee potential factors here:

1) Wells Fargo. Their order to not increase balance sheet means they have to stop this sort of thing to continue other lending and purchasing operations.

2) repatriated funds. I also wonder if this has an impact

3) LIBOR discontinuance. This index is being phased out. If some of these statistics are based only tracking deals tied to this particular index, it could appear artificially impacted.
 

Treasure Searcher

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#28
So the Banksters do not trust each other? Something is going on.
 

FunnyMoney

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#29
The real question about the balance sheet unwinds is where is the additional buying is coming from? The offshore cayman island funds are gov't secret money printing accounts, if they're the ones picking up the unwind of treasuries then that's just more money printing and highly inflationary. However, the pace provided for the unwinds is pretty slow, especially this year. If they do stick to their plan, then the proposed increases in unwinds next year, if they do stick to the plan, does seem problematic.

I'm not going to sell any gold or any silver, that I'm sure about. Stocks, bonds and select RE are my only worries.
 

FunnyMoney

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#30
At a $1T deficit, is $83 billion in bonds EVERY month. Unwinds of 10 billion (since probably half of the 20B goes to treasuries and the other half goes to MBS) this sends that to $93 billion. If other CBs (China, SA, Japan for example) decide to reduce their holdings (they still hold a lot) , which they currently are and probably will continue to, then you can probably add some more to that, say another 10 billion (this is on the LOW side too and could be much higher)...

But if we call it 103. Then at $103 billion UST's for sale every month, this then comes to $2.4 million dollars of UST purchases EVERY MINUTE of every day for the entire month to get to the $103B.

So even with the FED unwind, the nation is going to owe a LOT of interest payments on the USTs and a LOT of principal into the perpetual future. Inflation hits the middle class the hardest by far. Middle class families will need to take on 3rd and 4th jobs if they want to have some money left over.

If you don't like silver or gold, then invest in red ink.
 
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Usury

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#31
I fail to see how CB and interbank lending correlate.
 

Usury

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#32
So the Banksters do not trust each other? Something is going on.
I'm not sure we can actually draw that exact conclusion from the data presented. That's my point.
 

keef

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#33
Here's a short clip with the essentials from the movie "ROLLOVER." If _this_ is what's actually taking place, the world is screwed.
Saudi Prince: "We wake up one morning, our oil is gone and we find out we have exchanged it all for paper money that is now worthless."

Something appears to be going on behind the scenes. Maybe something/maybe nothing.

To me, it's almost like they are pulling the plug on a patient that has been comatose and on life support for the past ten years. Ever since Hank Paulson's panicked closed sessions of Congress to bail out the banks back in 2008.

The FED unwinding 10B a month on a 4+Trillion balance sheet is a trickle. But something spooked our friends the Banksters.

Not to mention this is also the year the PetroDollar receives a serious competitor:

The dollar has been backed by oil since the 70s when we went off the gold standard. Oil and military intervention around the world. Never have we had a serious competitor before that could defend themselves against the American Military Machine.

Thanks for the heads up BB and mods.

This is the kind of thread that keeps GIM relevant on the worldwide web :racoon:
 

BarnacleBob

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#34
The decline in "Intrabank Lending" activities may just simply be a matter of banks tightening credit standards among themselves as the Fed pegs intrabank interest rate policy higher & LIBOR continues to rise. Whatever drove the crash has & is being suppressed.... so far!


What happened to US interbank lending in the financial crisis?

https://voxeu.org/article/what-happened-us-interbank-lending-financial-crisis
 

Thecrensh

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#35
Something VERY Serious is Happening with Banks - they've almost stopped lending TO EACH OTHER
Category: World News
Saturday, 10 February 2018 21:34



A little over three weeks ago, I became aware of a sudden and dramatic change in the US Banking System that made my stomach sick. I "sat" on this story for almost three weeks hoping what I found was some type of anomaly or data error. It's not.

Bankers have almost completely stopped lending . . . . TO EACH OTHER.

The plunge in "InterBank Lending" was so sudden and so substantial that it looks as though it is actually a PLAN, not happenstance or situationally appropriate.

It LOOKS like the Bankers are intentionally choking the US Economy and they're doing so at levels far FAR worse than what took place during the "Fiscal Crisis" of 2007-08.

For more than 45 years, the Federal Reserve has tracked virtually E V E R Y aspect of banking in the United States. They literally look at EVERY financial metric and provide incredible amounts of public reporting to anyone willing to spend time on the Federal Reserve Electronic Data (FRED) web site.

As your trusted media servant, I peruse vast amounts of information every day to keep you abreast of what's taking place, and give you insight as to how and why certain things happen. So when I undertook my usual perusal of FRED and saw what I am about to show you, I was shocked.

INTERBANK LENDING

First, let me explain what INTERBANK lending is. The interbank lending market is a market in which banks extend loans to one another for a specified term. Most interbank loans are for maturities of one week or less, the majority being overnight. Such loans are made at the interbank rate (also called the overnight rate if the term of the loan is overnight).

A sharp decline in transaction volume in this market was a major contributing factor to the collapse of several financial institutions during the financial crisis of 2007.

Banks are required to hold an adequate amount of liquid assets, such as cash, to manage any potential bank runs by clients. If a bank cannot meet these liquidity requirements, it will need to borrow money in the interbank market to cover the shortfall. Some banks, on the other hand, have excess liquid assets above and beyond the liquidity requirements. These banks will lend money in the interbank market, receiving interest on the assets.

The interbank rate is the rate of interest charged on short-term loans between banks. Banks borrow and lend money in the interbank lending market in order to manage liquidity and satisfy regulations such as reserve requirements. The interest rate charged depends on the availability of money in the market, on prevailing rates and on the specific terms of the contract, such as term length. There is a wide range of published interbank rates, including the federal funds rate (USA), the LIBOR (UK) and the Euribor (Eurozone).

Having now explained what INTERBANK LENDING is, and how it is H U G E L Y important for those funds to be available so banks can go about their daily business without running afoul of the law or Depositor needs, take a look at the FRED Data for INTERBANK LENDING for the last twelve months: (Click image to enlarge)

View attachment 99140

Did you see the problem? Let me point it out:

View attachment 99138

Yes. You see that correctly. INTERBANK LENDING CAME TO A VIRTUAL HALT, plunging from $68.034 BILLION for the week of December 27, to a terrifying level of $13.237 Billion as of January 3, 2018. That's a DROP of EIGHTY-ONE PERCENT (81%) in one week.

Of course, some folks may have a knee-jerk rection to this and say something like "Hey Hal, it was the week between Christmas and New Years. Business was slow. Don't worry about it."

OK. But this has never . . . . and I can prove N E V E R . . . happened before!

To show you how utterly extraordinary this is, take a look at 45 years of INTERBANK LENDING from the FRED reports:

View attachment 99139

Going all the way back to 1973, INTERBANK LENDING has never ---- N E V E R --- been this low. Not even in the "Recession" of 2008-2009 ! ! !

Each of those years had a week between Christmas and New Years. NOT ONCE IN 45 YEARS did the Interbank Lending grind to a halt as it has now.

Let me put this in perspective for you. As of January 3, 2018, the Interbank Lending is about $13 Billion for the week. The FRED Data goes back to January 3, 1973 at which time it was $29 Billion.

Therefore, 45 years later. in an economy that is much, MUCH bigger, the Interbank Lending has collapsed to about 1/2 of what it was in 1973.

WHY?

What happened to cause this? Good question. And it is a question that NO ONE in the Banking Community seems willing to speak with me about.

For those unfamiliar, I live in New Jersey, about three miles due west of the Empire State Building in midtown Manhattan, New York City. I can pull my car out of my driveway and be in midtown Manhattan in minutes (barring traffic!).

We've got ALL the banks here; ALL of the biggest, most powerful, most influential banks.

We've got back-office Bank Operations occupying entire skyscrapers. Tens-of-thousands of people in the Banking industry . . . . and I know a LOT of those people, socially and professionally. NONE of them will talk about this. Not a peep. Nothing.

Even the Federal Reserve told me "no comment."

THAT is troubling to me. (Story continues below Ad)

Usually, no matter what the story, someone . . . usually quite a few someones . . . . are willing to talk, even if it's off-the-record. Not on this topic. Lips are sealed.

That tells me "trouble." It also tells me that the recent major swings in the Stock Markets are directly related to this.

GOLD? Nope!

If Interbank Lending has suddenly stopped . . . . because Bankers have DECIDED to stop lending to each other (as opposed to not trusting each other), then it stands to reason that Banks which NEED liquidity to meet regulations and cash requirements, would have to get that cash from somewhere else. The easiest place: The Stock Markets . . . . the Banks can sell-off stocks they have acquired and use the cash to bolster themselves.

This makes a lot of sense when you consider that, on Friday, February 2 (one month into the collapse of InterBank Lending) the Stock Market fell 666 points. If this was due to economic worries by the general public, we would expect to see a rise in the price of Gold. It is well established that when Investors are worried about the future, they buy Gold. But that didn't happen.

On Thursday February 1 - the day BEFORE the 666 Drop in Stocks, Gold closed at $1,349.46, which marked the high for the week. Friday opened with the price of gold slightly off at $1,345.35, and then the yellow metal pulled back to end the week at $1,333.39. The price of gold WENT DOWN as STOCKS WENT DOWN.

So the money pouring OUT of the Stock Market was NOT going into Gold! The cash was going somewhere else. But where?

Days later, on Monday, February 5 - the first open market day since the 666 plunge, The Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 1,100 more points as stocks took their worst loss in six and a half years.

Between Friday and Monday, those two days of steep losses erased the market's gains from the start of this year and ended a period of record-setting calm for stocks.

But again, Gold wasn't phased. Gold closed at $1339.41, up a measly six dollars and two cents ($6.02) from the Friday before!

To me, this is proof that the hundreds-of-billions of dollars coming out of the Stock Market on Friday, February 2 and again on Monday, February 5 is NOT due to Investors seeking safety. The money is going somewhere else.

SPECULATION

Now, I am not a licensed financial planner and cannot offer financial advice. All I am doing here is my job as a Reporter/Journalist/Radio Host, to present the facts and offer my personal views which are clearly evident on their face. DO NOT MAKE ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS BASED ON WHAT I PUBLISH HERE. Consult with a Licensed Financial Expert before making any financial decisions.

Having said that, I still must ask: Why has the Interbank Lending ground to a virtual halt and where is the money going from all the Stock market sales?

It seems to me that either:

1) Banks are selling-off their own Stocks to get cash to sustain themselves (very bad sign) OR . . . . .

2) Someone is pulling HUGE amounts of cash OUT of US Banks and they are scrambling to survive. (Much worse), or

3) The Bankers have decided they don't like new found American Nationalism and are deliberately choking our economy to force a Globalist Agenda upon our President and our people by breaking our economy and saying Globalization is our only hope.

I can't help but wonder - and this is pure speculation on my part -- if perhaps Saudi Prince Alwaleed, having recently been released from custody in Saudi Arabia, is somehow trying to punish the US for the "situation" he found himself in, and may be pulling-out his vast wealth? I have NO EVIDENCE to substantiate this, but when a guy THAT wealthy, gets imprisoned (and reportedly tortured) he may have an "ax to grind" and definitely has the wealth to hurt those who may have hurt him. We also know he is no fan of our President.

Or could this be something else? Something far worse?

Could this be a situation that mimics the 1981 movie with Jane Fonda, Chris Christopherson and Hume Cronin entitled" ROLLOVER?" The situation being reported in this post could very well be the start of real-life efforts portrayed in that movie!

You folks had best prepare, right now. Just in case. Have emergency cash (to survive, not to pay bills) emergency food, emergency fuel for cars, trucks, generators. Extra medicines you may need to survive. and such. Those interested in a list of items to have so as to "Prep" may find THIS LINK useful.

Here's a short clip with the essentials from the movie "ROLLOVER." If _this_ is what's actually taking place, the world is screwed.

My take is #3....
 

GOLDBRIX

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#36
3) The Bankers have decided they don't like new found American Nationalism and are deliberately choking our economy to force a Globalist Agenda upon our President and our people by breaking our economy and saying Globalization is our only hope.

I would not be surprised.
The UN has taken its shots.
The Fabian Socialist PROGS have taken their shots.
Our so called Two-Party System of DEMS and DEM-LITE (RINOs) are taking their shot.

Bankers the Vultures of the "Savannah" are looking to get in on the action. IMO
 

Joe King

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#37
Not to mention this is also the year the PetroDollar receives a serious competitor:
2018 is supposed to be the year the Dollar loses its "petro" designation too.

They'd have to wait long enough for Trump to be seen as fully "owning" the economy. Sometime this year would work.
 

keef

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#38
Flashback to June 2007, Bear Sterns auction of their new leveraged synthetic securities.

No bids! I watched that auction fail in real time.

Then it was Lehman that went under, but watching Bear Sterns was like watching the twin towers get hit.

This, whatever 'this' is has that same feeling.

The shit was going down but almost no one understood modern banking enough to see it.

Hypertiger used to talk about this moment a lot.

I will call it the Hypertiger Moment.

From the time of 'discovery' of the worthless Bear Sterns CDOs to ground zero with Paulson bailout was little over a year.

Now the FED wants to dump that toxic waste?

Can't be done. Easier to unwind a nest of scorpions using rattle snakes.

China knows this and is ready to step in.

Hypertiger Moment.
 

keef

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#39
Hey BF? If the wife isn't home bossing you around could you Photoshop a pic of Jerome Powell busting up a nest of Scorpions with a Rattle Snake whip?

Thanks in advance.

I'm sure there is an episode of 'WildBoyz' you can get the basic pic.

Jerome Powell in a g-string unwinding the FED.

Quick, before TD at ZeroHedge gets theirs first.