Ramblings

[Scorpio]

Oil up and Gold up

This hasn't been happening in awhile,

while dollar and bonds are flat for right now,

 

[Ahillock]

Re: Relative oddity this am

Only thing that won't be odd is that gold will go back into the $1240-1250 range.

 

[Scorpio]

Re: Relative oddity this am

gold still up while oil went back flat to down,

metals off their highs,

dow duck and spit are all flat

bonds getting a kick in the keister now,

 

[Scorpio]

Re: Relative oddity this am

again today,

oil up and metals up,

we had stated long ago, that when the time comes, the big boys would be on the right side of the trade,

now we hear tales of JP being long both metals, and big long

back in the day, at that time, they were short, really really short

so we shall see

 

[southfork]

Re: Relative oddity this am

again today,

oil up and metals up,

we had stated long ago, that when the time comes, the big boys would be on the right side of the trade,

now we hear tales of JP being long both metals, and big long

back in the day, at that time, they were short, really really short

so we shall see

Getting the feeling the bottoms in. Will have to peruse the lcs inventory today.

 

[Brio]

Re: Relative oddity this am

There were rumors in mid January JPM was shorting the SP and long gold. That's when I figured this sad saga would start to unravel. Posted this somewhere here...

Freaky chart.

 

[phideaux]

Re: Relative oddity this am

again today,

oil up and metals up,

Stocks up, too.

Dollar index getting whacked today. All is as it should be. :biggrin:

 

[RichG]

Re: Relative oddity this am

Bump for the graphs.... :smokin:

 

[Ahillock]

Re: Relative oddity this am

Freaky chart.

Anyone know when the current DJIA on that graph was last updated?

 

[Tinbox]

Re: Relative oddity this am

There were rumors in mid January JPM was shorting the SP and long gold. That's when I figured this sad saga would start to unravel. Posted this somewhere here...

Freaky chart.

I'm not expert at charts, but isn't this chart a little deceiving? It's using different proportions (I don't know how to explain this well) to chart.

If you look at the 1928-1929, it went from under 200 to about 375, almost a 100% gain. The current dow went from about 12,500 to 16,500. About a 33% gain.

So it seems they amplified the current Dow moves about 3X in order to match the 1928-1929 moves. Does this still make it relevant even though they did this?

 

[Tinbox]

Re: Relative oddity this am

Anyone know when the current DJIA on that graph was last updated?

16,266.74, look at the top right hand corner of the chart.

(edit, unless you were referring to the date it was updated in which case I don't know)

 

[Scorpio]

Re: Relative oddity this am

oil cracked $100 today, hasn't held it yet,

should be solid resistance, but who knows

silver/gold hanging in there, but nowhere near the gains in oil,

 

[EO 11110]

Re: Relative oddity this am

no worries scorp, things are back to normal now

horrendous jobs report = stock market up big :thumbs_up:

 

[Scorpio]

Re: Relative oddity this am

thanks for the heads up, hadn't been paying attention to the cooked books,



January jobs report disappoints again

The U.S. economy created a disappointing 113,000 new jobs in January, the Labor Department reported Friday. Analysts expected nonfarm payrolls to increase by 185,000 jobs last month.

The unemployment rate fell again to 6.6 percent. the lowest level since October 2008 even as more Americans entered the labor force. Unemployment has fallen from a post-recession high of 10 percent, reached in October 2009. In December, it fell steeply to 6.7 percent from November's 7.2 percent.

January's disappointing results compounded a weak report in December when a much-lower-than-expected 74,000 jobs were created. It was revised upward by just 1,000 jobs Friday.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-january-jobs-report-20140207,0,5876546.story

 

[Scorpio]

Re: Relative oddity this am

little variance this am,

metals up solidly,

while oil was being hit back under 100,

it broke and held 100 on a close last Fri, now back under,

we see how it closes

 

[Scorpio]

Re: Relative oddity this am

for the silver guys, still seeing a extended trading range,

and need quite a bit of action to show a break in trend

lot of resistance around that 20.50-20.60 area

 

[Scorpio]

Re: Relative oddity this am

while gold is different, clearing showing the beginning of a uptrend,

now does it hold up, looks real nice so far,

consolidated and took out the resistance at 1260, and looking to head for the 1300 level. The R at 1280 or so should be relatively minor

 

[Eat Beef]

Re: Relative oddity this am

Agreed. The only thing bullish about a silver chart is a gold chart. LOL.


FWIW, I look for a good run in the broads from now until Aprilish. Hopefully PMS can run with it. After that I think the broads get killed, and I don't expect PMs to do well in that environment.

 

[Scorpio]

Re: Relative oddity this am

hey up Eat, hope all is well,

this am all is hanging on the new 'ho at the fed to yap about nothing,

gold up ok, but silver was up, now down,

oil has broken and held 100, and still holding it this am as they play the waiting game,

oil has already been on a real nice near term run, and we see if it is just chillin' for a bit, or does it tip back over under 100

this is gonna get real fookin' ugly if all this fiat printing starts manifesting itself back into commods again,

they rise from these levels, they already have a very high launching point,

gold at 1280, oil at +100, soybeans at +1300

not to mention meats at extremely high prices relative to historical

with no wage growth, people are going to get crushed,

again,

you may be able to look at your 401K and see how much money .gov has, but you won't have squat in your wallet to buy a gallon of milk,

ohh, you thought that was your money..........yer a funny guy!

btw, you seen the price of beer?

can't even drown your sorrows anymore............

 

[phideaux]

Re: Relative oddity this am

The "oddity" I'm seeing is that crude is running up but retail gas is sinking. I paid $2.94 yesterday, the lowest in my area for at least 2 years.

 

[Scorpio]

the market is flush with gas,

crude is banking on future growth,

 

[itsamess]

Updated 1929 / 2014 comparison


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11

 

[Eat Beef]

I could see that pattern coming to pass, but make no mistake, it only puts us back to 13200 DOW, hardly a disaster.:boring:

 

[itsamess]

I could see that pattern coming to pass, but make no mistake, it only puts us back to 13200 DOW, hardly a disaster.:boring:

I think the graphs indicate it would be more like 12400, but like the 1929 crash the lack of confidence in markets / government is the larger issue. It would be hard to paint that as a necessary correction.

Of course in the craziness of today were the health care law that everyone screamed "was now the law of the land" only to be changed at will by order of BO, maybe anything goes.

 

[Ahillock]

I could see that pattern coming to pass, but make no mistake, it only puts us back to 13200 DOW, hardly a disaster.:boring:

It would actually correspond to ~8800 and not 13200.


375 to 200 vs 16400 to 8800. (~47% drop)

 

[Scorpio]

Yeah Eat,

that is why the correlation charts are cool, but not really representative,

as all the numbers and values have changed,

then the form fitting starts, shortened time frames, elongated time frames and so on to make it work,

whereas a more true version would be if it took a 47% haircut then,

a 47% haircut now would equate to dow 7997, and nowhere near the value as you stated

edit to add:

On October 29, William C. Durant joined with members of the Rockefeller family and other financial giants to buy large quantities of stocks in order to demonstrate to the public their confidence in the market, but their efforts failed to stop the large decline in prices. Due to the massive volume of stocks traded that day, the ticker did not stop running until about 7:45 p.m. that evening. The market had lost over $30 billion in the space of two days which included $14 billion on October 29 alone.[17]

Dow Jones Industrial Average on Black Monday and Black Tuesday[18]
Date Change % Change Close
October 28, 1929 −38.33 −12.82 260.64
October 29, 1929 −30.57 −11.73 230.07

After a one-day recovery on October 30, where the Dow regained an additional 28.40 points, or 12%, to close at 258.47, the market continued to fall, arriving at an interim bottom on November 13, 1929, with the Dow closing at 198.60. The market then recovered for several months, starting on November 14, with the Dow gaining 18.59 points to close at 217.28, and reaching a secondary closing peak (i.e., bear market rally) of 294.07 on April 17, 1930. After the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act was enacted in mid-June, the Dow dropped again, stabilizing above 200. The following year, the Dow embarked on another, much longer, steady slide from April 1931 to July 8, 1932 when it closed at 41.22—its lowest level of the 20th century, concluding an 89% loss rate for all of the market's stocks. For most of the 1930s, the Dow began slowly to regain the ground it lost during the 1929 crash and the three years following it, beginning on March 15, 1933, with the largest percentage increase of 15.34%, with the Dow Jones closing at 62.10, with a 8.26 point increase. The largest percentage increases of the Dow Jones occurred during the early and mid-1930s, but it would not return to the peak closing of September 3, 1929 until November 23, 1954

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929

 

[Eat Beef]

It would actually correspond to ~8800 and not 13200.


375 to 200 vs 16400 to 8800. (~47% drop)

As usual you see what you want to see, and are misled by the chart. Which of course is the point, they want to fool the gullible.

The chart skews the data, the Cow hasn't had the run now that it had in 1929, they had to fool with the scaling to make it work. If the red line follows the blue line, it will end up in the 12-1400 area. The percentage is irrelevant, because the percentages are not equal on the chart.

 

[Scorpio]

ah and Eat are both right IMO,

I was typing while you guys were responding also

and as Eat says, the scaling on the chart does nothing to represent the dow vs as the chart does show 13200

 

[Gcubed]

Gentlemen, Allow me to cut to the chase as that be my style. Someone IS gunna eat a chit sandwich.

 

[Ahillock]

As usual you see what you want to see, and are misled by the chart. Which of course is the point, they want to fool the gullible.

The chart skews the data, the Cow hasn't had the run now that it had in 1929, they had to fool with the scaling to make it work. If the red line follows the blue line, it will end up in the 12-1400 area. The percentage is irrelevant, because the percentages are not equal on the chart.

"One of the biggest objections I heard two months ago was that the chart is a shameless exercise in after-the-fact retrofitting of the recent data to some past price pattern. But that objection has lost much of its force. The chart was first publicized in late November of last year, and the correlation since then certainly appears to be just as close as it was before."

"Another objection I heard two months ago was that there are entirely different scales on the left and right axes of the chart. The scale on the right, corresponding to the Dow’s DJIA +1.22% movement in 1928 and 1929, extends from below 200 to more than 400—an increase of more than 100%. The left axis, in contrast, represents a percentage increase of less than 50%.

But there’s less to this objection than you might think. You can still have a high correlation coefficient between two data series even when their gyrations are of different magnitudes.

However, what is important, McClellan said, is that the time scales of the two data series need to be the same. And, he stresses, there has been no stretching of the time dimension to make them fit."

 

[Scorpio]

which gets right back to what Eat is talking about,

it is hardly a calamity as it was in 28-29, more like a nuisance to go back to 13200

to be a equivalent problem, then it does have to go back to 8000 as stated, using a percentage comparison

otherwise, it is nothing other than a inconvenience for the paper pushers,

 

[Ahillock]

which gets right back to what Eat is talking about,

it is hardly a calamity as it was in 28-29, more like a nuisance to go back to 13200

to be a equivalent problem, then it does have to go back to 8000 as stated, using a percentage comparison

otherwise, it is nothing other than a inconvenience for the paper pushers,

I can't speak for Tom DeMark but the analysis is a little more advanced and complicated than we are making it out to be. Also, DeMark isn't some schmuck who rambles and has no clue what he is doing.

Time will make all things evident.

 

[<SLV>]

So, 40% "hair cut" (decapitation) in a period of 5 weeks or so (at scale). This would be DOW 9600. Aren't there enough "circuit breakers" in the laws now to prevent that precipitous of a decline?

 

[phideaux]

So, 40% "hair cut" (decapitation) in a period of 5 weeks or so (at scale). This would be DOW 9600. Aren't there enough "circuit breakers" in the laws now to prevent that precipitous of a decline?

Circuit breakers can actually exacerbate a sell-off.

If people and especially computer programs know that they will not be able to sell tomorrow, they will sell today. Once that cycle starts, it can be hard to stop.

But of course Fed Queen Janet will not hesitate to invoke her powers and step in and provide "liquidity" (free money to the banksters), if the Fed doesn't outright buy stocks or stock futures

And of course the PPT is still alive and well and standing by ready to "buy! buy! buy!"

 

[Scorpio]

But of course Fed Queen Janet will not hesitate to invoke her powers and step in and provide "liquidity" (free money to the banksters), if the Fed doesn't outright buy stocks or stock futures

agreed...........

 

[itsamess]

Circuit breakers can actually exacerbate a sell-off.

If people and especially computer programs know that they will not be able to sell tomorrow, they will sell today. Once that cycle starts, it can be hard to stop.

But of course Fed Queen Janet will not hesitate to invoke her powers and step in and provide "liquidity" (free money to the banksters), if the Fed doesn't outright buy stocks or stock futures

And of course the PPT is still alive and well and standing by ready to "buy! buy! buy!"

Same old same old. But I thought we were on the mends. Market tanks, FED pumps, confidence erodes more and more. Oh well the real show isn't for a while anyways. Anybody buying stocks?

 

[Eat Beef]

Same old same old. But I thought we were on the mends. Market tanks, FED pumps, confidence erodes more and more. Oh well the real show isn't for a while anyways. Anybody buying stocks?

Wait, aren't you the guy posting the chart that says the market is going to crash by April 1?

If I believed that chart 100%, I would definitely be buying stocks. Can't you see the runup coming immediately? You buy now, and use those proceeds to sell later. I can see the similarity, but I think we get more of a run lasting a longer time. It's hard for me to believe in a crash coming in February, but hey, maybe. After all, this chart guy is really smart and all that...:SLEEP:

 

[itsamess]

Wait, aren't you the guy posting the chart that says the market is going to crash by April 1?

If I believed that chart 100%, I would definitely be buying stocks. Can't you see the runup coming immediately? You buy now, and use those proceeds to sell later. I can see the similarity, but I think we get more of a run lasting a longer time. It's hard for me to believe in a crash coming in February, but hey, maybe. After all, this chart guy is really smart and all that...:SLEEP:

I posted a link to a comparison to the 29 market. Please be precise. There is no exact match, but lets see what happens by April 15. Nuff said.

 

[Eat Beef]

Why is it that people who can't express themselves must say "nuff said". If enough were said, why say it?

 

[Zed]

Why is it that people who can't express themselves must say "nuff said". If enough were said, why say it?

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